Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,214
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jun 13, 2018 5:33:30 GMT
Another study made for SPD: A scientist asked ~670 PartyMembers in RhinelandPalatine, when&why they decided for&against continuing the GrandCoalition. Unsurprisingly many NOs (JuSos aso.) stood firmly from the beginning on, while the YESes trotted later to the leadership's preference (according to them after "critical discussions" with local politicians aso.).
So, CIVEY polled perhaps correctly (52% YES 2 weeks before).?
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mboy
Liberal
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Post by mboy on Jun 17, 2018 8:37:53 GMT
Squeaky bum time...
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 19, 2018 7:01:12 GMT
SPD sinking like the Titanic, they needed time in opposition and over time will shed more votes to the Left, Greens an AFD.
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,214
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jun 19, 2018 7:29:16 GMT
Not only this - INSA conducted another one, asking CDU and CSU separately: 22 CDU 18 CSU 17 SPD 12 LEFT 11 AfD 10 GREENS 06 FDP Huge caveats, of course: INSA has its own agenda and CSU at 18% (incl. AfD remaining at 11%) wouldn't happen; such polls rather show, how many people can imagine to vote for a certain party under certain circumstances.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 19, 2018 7:46:51 GMT
Not only this - INSA conducted another one, asking CDU and CSU separately: 22 CDU 18 CSU 17 SPD 12 LEFT 11 AfD 10 GREENS 06 FDP Huge caveats, of course: INSA has its own agenda and CSU at 18% (incl. AfD remaining at 11%) wouldn't happen; such polls rather show, how many people can imagine to vote for a certain party under certain circumstances. also dont the CSU only stand in Bavaria?
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jun 19, 2018 9:01:21 GMT
@priceofdawn. You are indeed correct. However, occasionally, the CSU has made ludicrous noises about standing outside Bavaria in the past.
Also worth noting is that the CSU tried to annex the CVP in the Saarland in the Fifties after the "little reunification", and as I recall also tried to get the CDU to give them the job as Union affiliate in Thuringia. Which would have been truly bizarre, as Thuringia is a Protestant hotbed.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 19, 2018 9:26:55 GMT
Not only this - INSA conducted another one, asking CDU and CSU separately: 22 CDU 18 CSU 17 SPD 12 LEFT 11 AfD 10 GREENS 06 FDP Huge caveats, of course: INSA has its own agenda and CSU at 18% (incl. AfD remaining at 11%) wouldn't happen; such polls rather show, how many people can imagine to vote for a certain party under certain circumstances. also dont the CSU only stand in Bavaria? The point was to measure what would happen if CSU ran nationally.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,483
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 19, 2018 9:30:45 GMT
SPD sinking like the Titanic, they needed time in opposition and over time will shed more votes to the Left, Greens an AFD. Not disagreeing in general, but they are actually 2 points up in this poll.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 19, 2018 11:33:27 GMT
also dont the CSU only stand in Bavaria? The point was to measure what would happen if CSU ran nationally. while hypothetical do they have the infrastructure?
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jun 19, 2018 11:37:41 GMT
The point was to measure what would happen if CSU ran nationally. while hypothetical do they have the infrastructure? No, not at all. They are only organised in Bavaria, even if plenty elsewhere would like to vote for them.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jun 19, 2018 11:43:24 GMT
while hypothetical do they have the infrastructure? No, not at all. They are only organised in Bavaria, even if plenty elsewhere would like to vote for them. Has anyone tried applying to be a member? I wonder if they reject applications from outside Bayern: www.csu.de/mitgliedsantrag/
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Post by Andrew_S on Jun 19, 2018 11:44:13 GMT
Not only this - INSA conducted another one, asking CDU and CSU separately: 22 CDU 18 CSU 17 SPD 12 LEFT 11 AfD 10 GREENS 06 FDP Huge caveats, of course: INSA has its own agenda and CSU at 18% (incl. AfD remaining at 11%) wouldn't happen; such polls rather show, how many people can imagine to vote for a certain party under certain circumstances. What agenda does INSA have?
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jun 19, 2018 11:47:48 GMT
No, not at all. They are only organised in Bavaria, even if plenty elsewhere would like to vote for them. Has anyone tried applying to be a member? I wonder if they reject applications from outside Bayern: www.csu.de/mitgliedsantrag/After Sibboleth mentioned that the whole "Fourth Party" thing was the most CSU thing ever, I notice that this form asks you what your religion is...
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Post by BossMan on Jun 19, 2018 11:47:50 GMT
Not only this - INSA conducted another one, asking CDU and CSU separately: 22 CDU 18 CSU 17 SPD 12 LEFT 11 AfD 10 GREENS 06 FDP Huge caveats, of course: INSA has its own agenda and CSU at 18% (incl. AfD remaining at 11%) wouldn't happen; such polls rather show, how many people can imagine to vote for a certain party under certain circumstances. What agenda does INSA have? They are the pollster for Bild-Zeitung (which is a populist right-wing tabloid of Alex Springer AG) and have a mild pro-AfD house affect. It has been described as the German equivalent of the Sun and it used to have topless women on the front page
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Post by BossMan on Jun 19, 2018 11:49:08 GMT
After Sibboleth mentioned that the whole "Fourth Party" thing was the most CSU thing ever, I notice that this form asks you what your religion is... Bless, that's the most CSU thing ever.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,265
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Post by Sibboleth on Jun 19, 2018 16:06:51 GMT
INSA's main agenda isn't really ideological or partisan, it's attention.
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,214
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jun 19, 2018 18:14:27 GMT
What agenda does INSA have? They are the pollster for Bild-Zeitung (which is a populist right-wing tabloid of Alex Springer AG) and have a mild pro-AfD house affect. It has been described as the German equivalent of the Sun and it used to have topless women on the front page BILD has been relatively immigration-friendly for this kind of newspaper, though. The real issue with INSA is, that its founder left CDU-Thuringia because it was too left for his taste (under Mrs.Lieberknecht) and has given sonetimes advice to AfD. (He insisted, that this happened on a purely professional basis.) Both - BILD and INSA - are at least interested in getting attention; and additionally INSA has suspiciously high numbers for the AfD. (It will be INSA, which will report first, that AfD passed SPD.) Most german PollingInstitutes are said to be closer to either CDU or SPD.
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Post by Andrew_S on Jul 7, 2018 22:27:02 GMT
"Europe Elects @europeelects 2h2 hours ago
Germany, Emnid poll:
CDU/CSU-EPP: 30% (-2) SPD-S&D: 17% (-2) AfD-EFDD: 17% (+3) GRÜNE-G/EFA: 12% LINKE-LEFT: 9% FDP-ALDE: 9%
Field work: 28/06/18 – 4/07/18 Sample size: not revealed yet"
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mboy
Liberal
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Post by mboy on Jul 8, 2018 8:01:41 GMT
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Post by Antiochian on Jul 8, 2018 8:26:19 GMT
"Europe Elects @europeelects 2h2 hours ago Germany, Emnid poll: CDU/CSU-EPP: 30% (-2) SPD-S&D: 17% (-2) AfD-EFDD: 17% (+3) GRÜNE-G/EFA: 12% LINKE-LEFT: 9% FDP-ALDE: 9% Field work: 28/06/18 – 4/07/18 Sample size: not revealed yet" It's a pity the CDU and CSU numbers are not broken out...
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