Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,242
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 23, 2017 9:03:37 GMT
Which feed are you watching? I'm watching TVNZ on YouTube. This and the LiveStream of daily "NZ Herald" (very professional and without ad-interruptions).
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,242
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 23, 2017 9:07:19 GMT
The distance has indeed been stable at 10% so far. Labour are hoping for the SpecialVotes. But that's not more than the missing 12% of the AdvanceVotes, I think.
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,242
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 23, 2017 9:17:40 GMT
With more NormalVotes counted (totally 50%) NP&ACT raise to 60/120 seats, making LP+GP+NZF really unimaginable.
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mondialito
Labour
Everything is horribly, brutally possible.
Posts: 4,924
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Post by mondialito on Sept 23, 2017 9:24:06 GMT
It's becoming clear what will happen, Winston will show a bit of leg to Labour to get a higher price for a coalition with the Nats.
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mondialito
Labour
Everything is horribly, brutally possible.
Posts: 4,924
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Post by mondialito on Sept 23, 2017 9:37:58 GMT
I have just realised that I actually bumped into Bill English's daughter a couple of times when I was at uni (she went to Cambridge, I didn't) without ever making the connection.
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,242
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 23, 2017 10:12:39 GMT
Which feed are you watching? I'm watching TVNZ on YouTube. Newshub is another possibility.
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,242
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 23, 2017 10:14:53 GMT
It getting clear what will happen, Winston will show a bit of leg to Labour to get a higher price for a coalition with the Nats. But will/would the Nat. buy LP&GP&NZF with 61 seats?
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,242
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 23, 2017 10:24:53 GMT
The FPTP-seats will have few changes: LAB takes the seats of UF and MaoriP., gains (at least) ChristchurchC and loses (at least) 1 to NP.
2014: 71: 41:27:1:1:1 2017: 71: 41:29:1:0:0
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mondialito
Labour
Everything is horribly, brutally possible.
Posts: 4,924
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Post by mondialito on Sept 23, 2017 10:27:36 GMT
Maori Party seemingly are getting the Lib Dem/FDP treatment for working with the Nats.
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Georg Ebner
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Posts: 9,242
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 23, 2017 10:38:42 GMT
Maori Party seemingly are getting the Lib Dem/FDP treatment for working with the Nats. I had expected them to be hardly punished already formerly, that it came this time, when they signalled support for LAB&GP, is rather surprising, isn't it?
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,242
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 23, 2017 10:55:39 GMT
James Shaw would probably be interested in a coalition with NP, but the LeftWing would kill him in that case.
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Post by greenhert on Sept 23, 2017 12:19:58 GMT
With 99.1% of votes counted (according to www.nzherald.co.nz/election-2017/news/headlines.cfm?c_id=1504338#/embed/gridmap/map/ ): The Greens have thankfully survived, albeit with their lowest vote share (5.8%) in many years. NZ First have also lost some votes but not quite as many. The Maori Party have been eliminated, as have United Future, but ACT have kept their solitary seat. Their list vote dropped even further to 0.5%, which is nevertheless better than the Conservative Party, whose vote dropped from 4% to a pathetic 0.2%. By the way, United Future's candidate in Ohariu polled less than 1% of the votes cast (only ACT's candidate did worse in that electorate) and National only missed out on capturing it (as opposed to Labour) by 679 votes. The Opportunities Party missed it by miles (2.2%). National are down 3 seats so Bill English will have to ask for a coalition partner; it is unlikely that Jacinda Ardem can gather the numbers together to be PM.
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 23, 2017 12:51:48 GMT
These FPTP-seats switched:
2013-2017
UF-LP Ohariu MP-LP Waiariki NP-LP ChristchurchCentral LP-NO HuttSouth NP-NZF-NP Northland (ByElection)
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,242
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 23, 2017 12:53:28 GMT
TurnOut presently stands at 66% - minus 11%, but the SpecialVotes will push it above 70%.
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 8,094
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Post by cogload on Sept 23, 2017 15:18:19 GMT
Will Arden sup with the Devil? Peters has indicated he will not start any auction until all the voted have been counted (could be a week or so yet).
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Long may it rain
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Post by Foggy on Sept 23, 2017 18:26:00 GMT
Which feed are you watching? I'm watching TVNZ on YouTube. I managed a couple of hours of that this morning. It was excruciating. Sounds like I should've been watching the NZ Herald feed instead. TOP getting over 2% is actually impressive, considering that anyone casting a ballot for them must've known their vote would be wasted unless they could snatch an unlikely FPTP seat. United Future's disappearance was widely predicted, but the same thing happening to the Māori Party was the biggest shock of the day. I've seen conflicting reports about whether Epsom counts as an overhang seat or not, but ACT might not have any role to play in government formation anyway since their single seat isn't much use this time. No tears will be shed for the performances of the Conservatives, Mana or Internet Party either. Overall quite a boring election that had promised so much about a week and a half ago, which has produced a bit of a messy Parliament. Uhurasmazda did warn us that National's majority from 2014 in most constituencies was too high for Labour realistically to be competitive, and indeed only Christchurch Central fell in the end. Of the other 4 seats that changed hands, 2 involvedthe main opposition taking a seat from a moribund micro-party that had co-operated with Key and English, one was a reversal of a by-election defeat and the other was countercyclical (though to be fair to TVNZ, they were good at explaining the reasons behind that one).
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 10,725
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Post by iain on Sept 23, 2017 18:57:43 GMT
Do these results give the possibility of abolishing the Maori seats?
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Long may it rain
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Post by Foggy on Sept 23, 2017 19:13:50 GMT
No, those seats go way back. The presence of separate party for the indigenous minority is actually a more recent phenomenon.
There are still 'special votes' that won't be fully counted for a couple of weeks, but for the moment the provisional result is that the ACT seat doesn't count as an overhang, so there will be 120 MPs rather than 121 for the coming term.
Ōhāriu turned out to be the closest contest in the whole country with its unusual circumstances. The Internet Party came dead last behind the successors to Social Credit, whilst United Future accrued a whopping 0.07% of the list vote. The Conservatives even finished behind the Legalist Cannabis Party!
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Post by timrollpickering on Sept 23, 2017 19:56:18 GMT
Both National and New Zealand First have in the past had policy to abolish the Maori seats. National parked this as part of the coalition agreement with the Maori Party and may have dropped it for subsequent elections.
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Post by greenhert on Sept 23, 2017 21:06:44 GMT
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