Hi, I'm a field organiser for Labour in the Auckland Region.
Andrew Little resigned this morning and has been replaced by Jacinda Ardern. She was his Deputy and is the obvious choice, being young and vaguely popular, which is a nice change for the NZLP. The last time we changed leader during an election campaign was in 1990, and we improved in the polls by around 5%. If we do the same this time and pull those votes in from National and NZ First instead of from our Green partners, we could be cooking with fire.
The last time we changed leader during an election campaign was in 1990, and we improved in the polls by around 5%.
Although you still got hammered, as I recall....
We're going to get hammered this time as well (although some extremely optimistic people have decided that, because Corbyn was underestimated in the British polls, this obviously means that we're really on 38%) but due to the electoral system we can still form a coalition with Greens+NZF as long as we don't get absolutely annihilated.
There are problems with the idea of being fine with a caucus of 25 as long as we supply the PM, of course.
our Green partners, we could be cooking with fire.
partners? I hope you mean splitters!
We have a rather different view over here.
Just to give you a feel of the political scene over here, we have 120-odd MPs, an open and friendly culture, a proportional electoral system, and a situation where you can run a national campaign on $2 million. So as you've got to work closely with all of these people after the election, you tend not to be very ideologically doctrinal (which, in real terms, was the main 'crime' of the Rogergnomes in the 1980s) or negative. The idea of making personal criticisms about an opponent is a bit of a Rubicon to us.
Also, we need the Greens in order to get into Government, while you need to crush the Greens beneath your heel in order to get into Government. Which creates a slightly different relationship.