Labour win in 1970

[Deleted]

Supposing the opinion polls leading up to the 1970 election were right after all and that Harold Wilson was returned for a third term in office. The consequences would have been profound in terms of both main political parties, and might have delayed or even permanently prevented our entry into the EEC.
Wilson would probably have stood down in 1972, having served eight years as Prime Minister. And it is doubtful that Ted Heath would have been able to stay on as Conservative leader following defeat. 1970 was almost certainly too early for Margaret Thatcher, who had been serving as Shadow Secretary of State for Education and Science during the 1966-70 Parliament.

Given the level of antipathy towards Ted Heath on this forum (as evidenced on the good PM/bad PM thread), and given that we would probably not have entered the EEC when we did had Labour won in 1970, I thought it might be interesting to ask how forum members would have voted in that election, retrospectively or not. I can't imagine many of us will have been born by then, let alone old enough to voted then. I realise there are notable exceptions.
It is worth bearing in mind that had Wilson resigned as PM in 1972 after eight years in office, it might well have opened the door to Roy Jenkins - who supported our entry into the Common Market - to take over.

[carlton43]

I have voted Conservative because that is in fact what I did in that year.

However, in retrospect it might have been better to have lost that one and to have had our '79' earlier and probably no '97', and perhaps no EU entry? So, with hindsight it might have been better to abstain or to have voted Labour?

[Lord Twaddleford]

To answer the poll question, I would've almost certainly voted Labour; unless my constituency* happened to be Buckingham, in which case the Labour candidate there was Robert Maxwell and I would've most likely voted Liberal instead.



_{* Of course, if I was around in 1970 and living where I am now, my constituency would've been Denbigh.}

[mondialito]

If I was around and able to vote in 1970, I would have voted Labour. Another big question in this counter-factual is whether Labour are still able to be the largest party in a 1974/5 General Election.

[Richard Allen]

Very hard to say without having been there at the time. Obviously with the benefit of hindsight it is easy to say that I would not have welcomed Heath as Prime Minister but the manifesto that the Conservative Party fought the 1970 election on would have probably attracted my support.

[No Offence Alan]

I suspect things might not have turned exactly as portrayed in "What if Banks had played?"

[johnloony]

Impossible hypothetical, because it depends on other factors, like: what age was I at the time?

[AdminSTB]

Apr 3, 2017 22:25:37 GMT No Offence Alan said:

I suspect things might not have turned exactly as portrayed in "What if Banks had played?"

Thank goodness. Although it is one of the classic pieces of alternative history.

[johnr]

Would we have not gone into the EEC under Wilson? He had submitted the application in 1967 which Heath took up in 1970 once De Gaule had left office. We would have had different terms, perhaps, and maybe not at quite the same time.

[Pete Whitehead]

I assume I would have voted Conservative in 1970 - as Richard says the manifesto was agreeable enough. Also if I had lived where I do now my MP would have been Victor Goodhew who would have been even more agreeable from my POV though if I lived were I actually did live in 1970 the MP (Gilbert Longden) would have been rather less so

[neilm]

The 1970 manifesto is appealing and I'd likely have voted Conservative. My MP at the time would have been Robert Maxwell and I'd happily have voted for William Benyon to unseat him (as he did).

[The Bishop]

Apr 4, 2017 8:19:59 GMT @trident said:

I suspect that, had we won in 1970, the industrial unrest and the rift with the trade unions that tore apart the Labour government in 1979 would have happened five years earlier

Well, since that was basically over pay policy it wouldn't have taken the same form at least - the early 1970s oil shock and resultant inflation would have put paid to any thought of that (as it did under Heath) Hard to see such a Labour government deciding the way to a third term was taking on the miners, either

[neilm]

Apr 4, 2017 10:56:27 GMT The Bishop said:

Apr 4, 2017 8:19:59 GMT @trident said:

I suspect that, had we won in 1970, the industrial unrest and the rift with the trade unions that tore apart the Labour government in 1979 would have happened five years earlier

Well, since that was basically over pay policy it wouldn't have taken the same form at least - the early 1970s oil shock and resultant inflation would have put paid to any thought of that (as it did under Heath) Hard to see such a Labour government deciding the way to a third term was taking on the miners, either

Labour would have given in before it got to the three day week, I suspect.

[Andrew_S]

Apr 3, 2017 21:02:24 GMT carlton43 said:

I have voted Conservative because that is in fact what I did in that year.

However, in retrospect it might have been better to have lost that one and to have had our '79' earlier and probably no '97', and perhaps no EU entry? So, with hindsight it might have been better to abstain or to have voted Labour?

Which constituency did you vote in that year?

[carlton43]

Apr 4, 2017 18:32:16 GMT Andrew_S said:

Apr 3, 2017 21:02:24 GMT carlton43 said:

I have voted Conservative because that is in fact what I did in that year.

However, in retrospect it might have been better to have lost that one and to have had our '79' earlier and probably no '97', and perhaps no EU entry? So, with hindsight it might have been better to abstain or to have voted Labour?

Which constituency did you vote in that year?

Ashford, Kent.

Bill Deedes.

It would have made no difference who I had voted for. He would have won.

[Deleted]

I actually wonder if I might have been a Liberal in the 1970s. I find it hard to judge really.

[hullenedge]

The geeky stuff:-

Labour would have been more inclined to introduce the Redcliffe-Maud reforms...different local government map and they could hardly have delayed new constituency boundaries, which may have been more favourable to the Conservatives by 1975.

Can't see the Liberal revival in 1972/73. Cyril Smith would probably have won Rochdale but Sutton & Cheam, Ripon, Isle of Ely and Berwick very likely to have remained Tory. Possibly Thorpe gone by 1974/75?

Assuming midterm unpopularity for this Labour government there's a strong chance that the SNP would perform very well in local elections. They gained Govan in our timeline but likely to have gained Dundee...this performance could have led to more gains (esp Labour seats) in 1974/75.

The Kilbrandon report may have received the same treatment from Labour i.e. ignored.

Labour may not have introduced STV for NI local elections. Somewhere(?) there's a speech by Shirley Williams arguing for plurality in the new single member wards.

[sirbenjamin]

Let's not forget that leaders were able to survive defeats in those days and either tough it out, bounce back, change tack, or, in the case of Churchill, pretty much all three. (Whereas nowadays even the most marginal defeat always seems to result in the party leader resigning and leaving the house shortly thereafter.)

So, on that basis it is not an absolute given that Heath would've been replaced as leader following a narrow Labour win in 1970. If he'd been succeeded by Iain MacLeod things would've been interesting, assuming he would still have died when he did. Maudling could've been an option, which might've changed the course of Monty Python in some way. It was too early for Thatcher (again, 11 years in the house wouldn't be seen as 'too early' these days...) Keith Joseph might've stood as the renegade candidate against the one nation mainstream and would possibly have failed against a resolute Heath.

Overall it's hard to picture an obvious successor which makes me think Heath would've continued to fight in '74 and probably achieved a very similar result to what actually happened then. A possibility would be that the two 1974 results were flipped, Wilson soldiers on with a minority government, we have another election around 1976 where Thatcher/Joseph/Tebbit etc. lead the country in some combination or other. Callaghan never gets to be Labour leader, let alone PM. Benn or Jenkins succeeds Wilson when they're back in opposition and God only knows what happens in the next 40 years, but probably very different from how it actually worked out.

[afleitch]

A 1970 Labour victory would have probably resulted in a similar political climate in 1974. The UK would have became more corporatist/statist and more inclined to regional planning. I wouldn't be surprised if that involved limited devolution, for economic purposes first and foremost.

[greenchristian]

I assume I would have voted Labour, though I guess I might have entertained the thought of voting Liberal.