timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823 
|
Post by timmullen1 on Feb 21, 2021 17:13:00 GMT
Given that the Liberals hold 17 out of 28 seats in the National Parliament from WA, the implications are certainly concerning for them..... Ironically they’re now trying to outflank Labor from the left, particularly on climate issues; the WA Greens are accusing them of basically stealing their policies, and the WA Liberal leader is openly ridiculing Scott Morrison’s latest environmental policy platform; big risk given the strength of the mining industry up in the North of the State, and maybe persuading Clive Palmer to reconsider his decision not to contest the election. |
|
Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 19,052
|
Post by Richard Allen on Feb 21, 2021 18:43:27 GMT
Given that the Liberals hold 17 out of 28 seats in the National Parliament from WA, the implications are certainly concerning for them..... We have seen many times though that Australian voters have little difficulty voting differently at state level to national level. |
|
timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
|
Post by timmullen1 on Feb 21, 2021 19:22:43 GMT
Given that the Liberals hold 17 out of 28 seats in the National Parliament from WA, the implications are certainly concerning for them..... We have seen many times though that Australian voters have little difficulty voting differently at state level to national level. As evidenced by Queensland just returning Anastasia Palaszczuk’s state Labor government to a third term of majority government despite Bill Shorten’s Federal Labor getting absolutely slaughtered in the State at the last Federal election. |
|
iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,433
|
Post by iain on Feb 21, 2021 20:57:44 GMT
Interestingly though, I did see a national poll the other day showing non-negligible swings to the governing party in each state (to Lab in Vic, Qld, WA, to Lib in SA and NSW - no tab for Tasmania or the territories) - presumably a coronavirus bounce.
|
|
|
|
Post by pragmaticidealist on Feb 21, 2021 21:01:11 GMT
Federally, the government hasn't had such a boost in voting intentions, although Morrison's approval ratings are in the 60s and he is dozens of points ahead of Albanese as preferred PM. There is a lot of speculation about a federal election being called later this year.
|
|
|
|
Post by Merseymike on Feb 21, 2021 21:17:18 GMT
Given that the Liberals hold 17 out of 28 seats in the National Parliament from WA, the implications are certainly concerning for them..... We have seen many times though that Australian voters have little difficulty voting differently at state level to national level. Very true. All the same, it's traditionally a strong state for the Liberals. |
|
timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
|
Post by timmullen1 on Feb 21, 2021 21:25:06 GMT
Interestingly though, I did see a national poll the other day showing non-negligible swings to the governing party in each state (to Lab in Vic, Qld, WA, to Lib in SA and NSW - no tab for Tasmania or the territories) - presumably a coronavirus bounce. Possibly Covid related, although they’re also states where Labor underperformed in the last Federal election (Vic slightly, Qld massively, WA probably as expected) or overperformed (NSW). SA is slightly skewed by the seeming collapse of the Centre Alliance (formerly Nick Xenophon Locally the last lockdown in Melbourne seems to have slightly dented Daniel Andrews’ standing, however if the Liberals are holding their own in NSW given the total and absolute corruption of Gladys Berejiklian’s administration that’s definitely them glowing in the success of their handling of Covid. SA might also be leaning Liberal because they’ve joined the raft of States and Territories legalising abortion, although they’re now in minority government with three members having moved to the crossbenches following separate fraud charges. |
|
|
|
Post by redvers on Mar 4, 2021 16:25:35 GMT
Surprised hasn't been mentioned but a Newspoll for the WA state election has put Labor on 68% and the Liberals on 32%. Insane numbers! Suggested that would just leave the Liberals on 2 seats - Cottesloe and Vasse. Talk about what to do if the Nationals eclipse the Liberals for second place. The Liberal leader has already conceded they will lose the election to be held on March 13th. Even if they fall short of these absolute crazy numbers, WA Labor is on course for arguably the most extraordinary win in Australian electoral history, especially when one considers they are running for a second term.
|
|
|
|
Post by pragmaticidealist on Mar 4, 2021 18:34:06 GMT
Surprised hasn't been mentioned but a Newspoll for the WA state election has put Labor on 68% and the Liberals on 32%. Insane numbers! Suggested that would just leave the Liberals on 2 seats - Cottesloe and Vasse. Talk about what to do if the Nationals eclipse the Liberals for second place. The Liberal leader has already conceded they will lose the election to be held on March 13th. Even if they fall short of these absolute crazy numbers, WA Labor is on course for arguably the most extraordinary win in Australian electoral history, especially when one considers they are running for a second term. It's been mentioned up thread. Obviously it would be extraordinary, but one-term governments are fairly rare at both federal and state levels on Australia. Even the Whitlam government was technically a two-term one. |
|
|
|
Post by redvers on Mar 4, 2021 19:16:02 GMT
Surprised hasn't been mentioned but a Newspoll for the WA state election has put Labor on 68% and the Liberals on 32%. Insane numbers! Suggested that would just leave the Liberals on 2 seats - Cottesloe and Vasse. Talk about what to do if the Nationals eclipse the Liberals for second place. The Liberal leader has already conceded they will lose the election to be held on March 13th. Even if they fall short of these absolute crazy numbers, WA Labor is on course for arguably the most extraordinary win in Australian electoral history, especially when one considers they are running for a second term. It's been mentioned up thread. Obviously it would be extraordinary, but one-term governments are fairly rare at both federal and state levels on Australia. Even the Whitlam government was technically a two-term one. Ah, my bad. Though my point about the second term is obviously that it would be extraordinary for an incumbent government to get such a massive majority. |
|
iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,433
|
Post by iain on Mar 12, 2021 15:09:44 GMT
Surprised hasn't been mentioned but a Newspoll for the WA state election has put Labor on 68% and the Liberals on 32%. Insane numbers! Suggested that would just leave the Liberals on 2 seats - Cottesloe and Vasse. Talk about what to do if the Nationals eclipse the Liberals for second place. The Liberal leader has already conceded they will lose the election to be held on March 13th. Even if they fall short of these absolute crazy numbers, WA Labor is on course for arguably the most extraordinary win in Australian electoral history, especially when one considers they are running for a second term. Newspoll on the eve of election shows Labor up 66% to 34% on the TPP. On uniform swing that would leave the Nationals on 4 and Liberals on 3. |
|
timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
|
Post by timmullen1 on Mar 12, 2021 15:37:46 GMT
Surprised hasn't been mentioned but a Newspoll for the WA state election has put Labor on 68% and the Liberals on 32%. Insane numbers! Suggested that would just leave the Liberals on 2 seats - Cottesloe and Vasse. Talk about what to do if the Nationals eclipse the Liberals for second place. The Liberal leader has already conceded they will lose the election to be held on March 13th. Even if they fall short of these absolute crazy numbers, WA Labor is on course for arguably the most extraordinary win in Australian electoral history, especially when one considers they are running for a second term. Newspoll on the eve of election shows Labor up 66% to 34% on the TPP. On uniform swing that would leave the Nationals on 4 and Liberals on 3. William Bowe (The Poll Bludger) reckons both Liberal and Labor internal polling isn’t nearly as dramatic and there are only three Lib seats in serious jeopardy, including one that’s been reduced to a notional 0.2% Lib margin by redistribution. There’s also a YouGov poll out in Zak Kirkup’s electorate showing him getting crushed 60-40 on two candidate preferred. |
|
timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
|
Post by timmullen1 on Mar 13, 2021 10:44:30 GMT
Surprise, surprise, Antony Green has called the WA State election for Labor about 43 minutes after the close of polls.
|
|
|
|
Post by IceAgeComing on Mar 13, 2021 11:04:49 GMT
Election was called with less than 1% of votes counted which normally would be... brave but not here: the Liberals needed a big swing towards them to win but there's an 11% swing to the ALP and I don't think any polling place is showing a swing to the Liberals so factoring that plus the opinion polls and its fair.
This is one of those situation where I don't think there's anything the Liberals could have done: they were facing a Premier with popularity that's unprecedented in a country like Australia - positive approvals are normally seen as a good sign, McGowan was like +80 and he's significantly above water with LIBERAL voters and that's not a situation where any opposition party has a hope in hell of winning. Any situation where the government did what they currently did would have led to them winning a landslide: the Liberals might have made it an easier job for people by not being good but that's not going to impact government as a whole. I don't think people have voted for the Labor Party as much as they've voted for Mark McGowan which I guess is what the Liberals might look at as a comparative positive: if he's very unpopular or gone in four years they could get that swing back and more - its not like Australia doesn't have precedent for that, look at the 2015 Queensland election.
As of now; around an hour after the polls close; the ABC has 19 ALP seats, 2 Nationals and 0 Liberal seats. I think that seat count also tells the whole story at this point.
|
|
|
|
Post by pragmaticidealist on Mar 13, 2021 11:23:55 GMT
Southern River, a seat that Labor gained in 2017, currently has a projected swing of around 24% and Labor on over 80% of the 2PP.
Meanwhile both Zac Kirkup and the previous Liberal leader Liza Harvey are in dire trouble - both around 60/40 down in their seats.
|
|
timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
|
Post by timmullen1 on Mar 13, 2021 11:42:47 GMT
Southern River, a seat that Labor gained in 2017, currently has a projected swing of around 24% and Labor on over 80% of the 2PP. Meanwhile both Zac Kirkup and the previous Liberal leader Liza Harvey are in dire trouble - both around 60/40 down in their seats. The ABC has called both seats for Labor. |
|
|
|
Post by IceAgeComing on Mar 13, 2021 12:05:03 GMT
Looks pretty certain now that the Nationals will finish in second and therefore will be entitled to the Official Opposition if they want it - and the interview with their leader made it pretty clear that they'd take it if it was offered. The ABC had a prediction a few minutes about that had the ALP on 52, the Nationals on 5 and the Liberals on 2 so the opposition position wouldn't even be close.
|
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,809
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Mar 13, 2021 12:41:16 GMT
The Liberals are projected by ABC to remain at 2 seats. Making it extremely likely, that deputyLeader Ms.Mettam (from const. Vasse) will take over (and not Mr.Honey in Cottesloe).
Unless Lib. will get replaced by the Nat. or merge with them, of course
|
|
iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,433
|
Post by iain on Mar 13, 2021 13:04:30 GMT
Looking very possible that Labor will win a majority in the Upper House.
|
|
|
|
Post by redvers on Mar 13, 2021 13:50:04 GMT
2017 was a catastrophic result for the Liberals. 2021 is the electoral equivalent of an asteroid impacting the Earth and annihilating all life as we know it.
|
|
