iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,432 
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Post by iain on Nov 2, 2020 1:45:19 GMT
Deb Frecklington has just resigned as leader of the LNP.
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 6,135
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Post by Foggy on Nov 2, 2020 17:07:13 GMT
It's little wonder the previous page descended into an argument about a niche issue, since there's not a lot to talk about from the Queensland election. The ABC still lists six seats in doubt, all with a swing to Labor. The ALP is projected to gain two and the LNP should hold the other four.
Of the constituencies already called, just four have changed hands: three Labor gains directly from the LNP, plus South Brisbane (formerly represented by both ex-Premier Anna Bligh and Deputy Premier Jackie Tran) was counter-cyclically nabbed by the Greens against the wider swing.
Katter's Australia Party and the one independent member easily retained the seats they held. One Nation also kept theirs despite their statewide first-preference vote share being cut in half.
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Post by finsobruce on Nov 10, 2020 11:08:49 GMT
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
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Post by timmullen1 on Nov 10, 2020 11:20:32 GMT
Deb Frecklington has just resigned as leader of the LNP. And David Crisafulli, an ally of one term Premier Campbell Newman, will be elected unopposed to succeed her, running to the right of the LNP’s platform in last month’s election. |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Nov 10, 2020 13:56:11 GMT
Retrospectively changing the democratic rules, to keep out someone you don't want. Very democratic.
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Post by finsobruce on Nov 10, 2020 14:03:03 GMT
Retrospectively changing the democratic rules, to keep out someone you don't want. Very democratic.
And they'd only just changed the rules, so it's their own fault. |
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timmullen1
Labour
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Post by timmullen1 on Nov 10, 2020 15:35:17 GMT
Retrospectively changing the democratic rules, to keep out someone you don't want. Very democratic.
And they'd only just changed the rules, so it's their own fault. Actually according to the ABC the rule was supposed to be dropped from the Bill on the advice of both the Electoral Commission in QLD and the equivalent of the LGA, and by-elections reinstated, but they ran out of time before dissolution and so had intended to introduce an amendment Bill immediately the new Parliament convened. |
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,432
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Post by iain on Nov 11, 2020 23:59:54 GMT
Counting has now finished, with the Greens picking up South Brisbane from Labor but Labor gaining five seats from the LNP: Bundaberg, Caloundra, Hervey Bay, Nicklin, Pumicestone. However, there will be recounts in Nicklin (Labor by 79) and Bundaberg (Labor by 11).
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,432
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Post by iain on Nov 13, 2020 10:30:34 GMT
Counting has now finished, with the Greens picking up South Brisbane from Labor but Labor gaining five seats from the LNP: Bundaberg, Caloundra, Hervey Bay, Nicklin, Pumicestone. However, there will be recounts in Nicklin (Labor by 79) and Bundaberg (Labor by 11). These gains are now confirmed. The recount stretched Labor’s lead to 85 in Nicklin and reduced it to just 9 in Bundaberg. |
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Nov 13, 2020 10:47:21 GMT
I make that the 11th defeat out of the last 12 for the Queensland right at the state level. Quite a contrast with how they perform at the federal level.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,904
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 13, 2020 11:39:16 GMT
And also quite a contrast on how the state used to vote until the 1980s!
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Post by John Chanin on Nov 13, 2020 11:57:36 GMT
And also quite a contrast on how the state used to vote until the 1980s! Although you must remember that the state was heavily gerrymandered. |
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Post by finsobruce on Nov 13, 2020 12:08:39 GMT
And also quite a contrast on how the state used to vote until the 1980s! Although you must remember that the state was heavily gerrymandered. Labor were out of power from 1957-89. Labor premier Vince Gair achieving the notable double of being expelled from the ALP in the 50s, and then years later being expelled from the DLP. |
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Post by markgoodair on Nov 24, 2020 13:55:11 GMT
First-term MP Zak Kirkup will lead the WA Liberal Party to the March state election, having been elected unopposed after rival Dean Nalder pulled out of the contest shortly before a partyroom vote.
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
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Post by timmullen1 on Dec 2, 2020 20:44:18 GMT
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
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Post by Foggy on Dec 3, 2020 5:56:16 GMT
By my rubbish* calculations, at the last 5 Queensland general elections (so those since the fusion of the Liberals and Nationals) the LNP has on average won 50.3% of the seats available, Labor has won an average of 44.4% and independent candidates and others have taken 4.8% of MPs. Not sure what happened to the remaining 0.5% but it's probably to do with the size of the Legislative Assembly increasing during that period.
Anyway, if you could've given members of the LNP predecessor parties those figures and only those figures 12 years ago, do you think they'd still have gone ahead with the merger? Telling them that the vast majority of those 'others' are to the right of the Libs might've helped to sweeten the pill for the Nats too.
*Trying a slightly different method of figuring out the mean, I got 50.1% LNP, 44.6% ALP, 5.3% other with nothing unaccounted for, which sounds more like it.
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,785
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Post by john07 on Dec 7, 2020 4:12:13 GMT
And also quite a contrast on how the state used to vote until the 1980s! Although you must remember that the state was heavily gerrymandered. This was the work of Joh Bjelke-Petersen. It was malapportionment with heavy rural weighting, rather than gerrymandering, that was used to keep Labor out of power in Queensland. |
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Post by John Chanin on Dec 7, 2020 8:48:13 GMT
Although you must remember that the state was heavily gerrymandered. This was the work of Joh Bjelke-Petersen. It was malapportionment with heavy rural weighting, rather than gerrymandering, that was used to keep Labor out of power in Queensland. That is gerrymandering,- rigging the boundaries to ensure a majority of seats on a minority of votes. |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,785
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Post by john07 on Dec 7, 2020 22:50:34 GMT
This was the work of Joh Bjelke-Petersen. It was malapportionment with heavy rural weighting, rather than gerrymandering, that was used to keep Labor out of power in Queensland. That is gerrymandering,- rigging the boundaries to ensure a majority of seats on a minority of votes. Malapportionment is not the same as gerrymandering. The former will give more seats to, say, rural voters by making the rural constituencies smaller than urban constituencies. This is not usually possible where a quota of voters per seat is enforced. Gerrymandering usually involves splitting an area so as to ensure one party wins by a huge margin in one seat while lots of others are lost by much smaller margins. Derry City, at one stage, split the council into three wards. One had a 90% + Nationalist/Republican majority while the other two had around 55% Unionist majorities. That delivered a Unionist majority with less than 40% of the vote. Gerrymandering is much harder to combat because they cannot be dealt with by administrative measures. The only way is to set some sort of criteria that would test the outcome of seats won against seats won. Some US states appear to be using this approach but gerrymandering is endemic to House elections. The Senate obviously uses malapportionment as all states get two Senators regardless of size. |
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
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Post by Foggy on Dec 8, 2020 2:27:17 GMT
That is gerrymandering,- rigging the boundaries to ensure a majority of seats on a minority of votes. Malapportionment is not the same as gerrymandering. The former will give more seats to, say, rural voters by making the rural constituencies smaller than urban constituencies. This is not usually possible where a quota of voters per seat is enforced. Gerrymandering usually involves splitting an area so as to ensure one party wins by a huge margin in one seat while lots of others are lost by much smaller margins. Derry City, at one stage, split the council into three wards. One had a 90% + Nationalist/Republican majority while the other two had around 55% Unionist majorities. That delivered a Unionist majority with less than 40% of the vote. Gerrymandering is much harder to combat because they cannot be dealt with by administrative measures. The only way is to set some sort of criteria that would test the outcome of seats won against seats won. Some US states appear to be using this approach but gerrymandering is endemic to House elections. Forget Northern Ireland and the USA – we're already in the right thread for such a criterion. Just look at how state lower house seats in South Australia are (frequently) redistributed! |
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