Izzyeviel
Lib Dem
I stayed up for Hartlepools
Posts: 3,279 
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Post by Izzyeviel on Apr 17, 2017 16:18:53 GMT
If Lib Dems went into a coalition with the Tories and successfully stopped Brexit, you can bet your ass Labour Remainers will be endlessly crying about how the Lib Dems are propping up the Tories. With no hint of irony.
They're damned if they do, damned if they don't.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Apr 17, 2017 16:24:05 GMT
The only obvious Green activity I have seen in around the seat this week have been posters advertising the launch of their mayoral manifesto.
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Post by andrew111 on Apr 17, 2017 16:48:26 GMT
Would it be fair to say that the high Green vote last time was a bit of an aberration probably largely the result of the almost total collapse of the Lib Dem vote, so now a for a resurgent Lib Dem campaign, taking back that Green vote was almost the first priority. I think I agree the combined Lab/LibDem vote should be 70% or maybe a bit more. There are widespread reports that the Lab vote is quite soft, and the remaining question is whether the Lib Dems can put on the difference in the last fortnight and they do of course have form in doing just that at many previous by-elections. The added difficulty undoubtedly is the full national election programme at the same time, which may mean they just miss out. I suspect at least half the Green vote will have been students.. I expect a relatively small % of students will be on the register this year, and therefore the Green vote will go down. The Lib Dems are doing far more than the Greems. |
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mboy
Liberal
Listen. Think. Speak.
Posts: 23,779
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Post by mboy on Apr 17, 2017 18:30:58 GMT
If Lib Dems went into a coalition with the Tories and successfully stopped Brexit, you can bet your ass Labour Remainers will be endlessly crying about how the Lib Dems are propping up the Tories. Which is basically what we did 2010-2015, when we blocked the in-out referendum in the 2010 Tory manifesto... |
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Post by yellowperil on Apr 17, 2017 18:31:07 GMT
I suspect at least half the Green vote will have been students.. I expect a relatively small % of students will be on the register this year, and therefore the Green vote will go down. The Lib Dems are doing far more than the Greems.Are Greems like big gremlins?  yes I suppose the trick is to identify the non-student half of the Green vote |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 17, 2017 18:59:33 GMT
If Lib Dems went into a coalition with the Tories and successfully stopped Brexit, you can bet your ass Labour Remainers will be endlessly crying about how the Lib Dems are propping up the Tories. Which is basically what we did 2010-2015, when we blocked the in-out referendum in the 2010 Tory manifesto... Which is odd, since that was also in the Lib Dem manifesto.. |
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,312
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Post by maxque on Apr 17, 2017 19:04:01 GMT
Which is basically what we did 2010-2015, when we blocked the in-out referendum in the 2010 Tory manifesto... Which is odd, since that was also in the Lib Dem manifesto.. Well, they threw away their manifesto for a few limos. |
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mboy
Liberal
Listen. Think. Speak.
Posts: 23,779
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Post by mboy on Apr 17, 2017 19:16:09 GMT
Which is odd, since that was also in the Lib Dem manifesto.. Yes, it was. Doesnt invalidate the point though. (Lol.) |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Apr 17, 2017 19:16:17 GMT
Which is basically what we did 2010-2015, when we blocked the in-out referendum in the 2010 Tory manifesto... Which is odd, since that was also in the Lib Dem manifesto.. The Lib Dems really have some explaining to do on this. Promise a referendum, don't deliver it, vote agaisnt the result. "Democrats" hmmm... |
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mboy
Liberal
Listen. Think. Speak.
Posts: 23,779
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Post by mboy on Apr 17, 2017 19:18:34 GMT
The explanation is: changed mind. Ditto tuition fees.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Apr 17, 2017 19:20:28 GMT
The explanation is: changed mind. Ditto tuition fees. You've changed your mind on ever having referendums or respecting the result or both. |
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Post by andrew111 on Apr 17, 2017 19:35:52 GMT
Which is odd, since that was also in the Lib Dem manifesto.. Yes, it was. Doesnt invalidate the point though. (Lol.) I thought the Lib Dem commitment was for an in/out referendum only in the event of "Treaty Change".. Which did not happen in 2010-2015, so no referendum.... |
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Post by timrollpickering on Apr 17, 2017 19:45:50 GMT
Yes, it was. Doesnt invalidate the point though. (Lol.) I thought the Lib Dem commitment was for an in/out referendum only in the event of "Treaty Change".. Which did not happen in 2010-2015, so no referendum.... In general under Clegg's leadership the Lib Dems seemed to always be in favour of holding an In/Out referendum at any time it was unlikely to happen. |
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Post by andrew111 on Apr 17, 2017 19:50:39 GMT
I suspect at least half the Green vote will have been students.. I expect a relatively small % of students will be on the register this year, and therefore the Green vote will go down. The Lib Dems are doing far more than the Greems.Are Greems like big gremlins? yes I suppose the trick is to identify the non-student half of the Green vote The Greem that sole Christmas? (I was on my phone, that is my excuse!) I have a feeling that students will play only a small role in this by-election. Why go through that personal registration hassle when no significant elections are in prospect?? It depends a lot on how keen the LA and the University have been to get people registered... Not very keen, I suspect, with this being the fallow year for local elections. I would be very interested to know what the electorate is in Gorton compared to 2015 or the Referendum. Will that be announced somewhere in advance of the poll? (deadline for registration was the 14th, it says on the council website.. |
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Post by andrew111 on Apr 17, 2017 19:51:16 GMT
Are Greems like big gremlins? yes I suppose the trick is to identify the non-student half of the Green vote The Greem that sole Christmas? (I was on my phone, that is my excuse!) I have a feeling that students will play only a small role in this by-election. Why go through that personal registration hassle when no significant elections are in prospect?? It depends a lot on how keen the LA and the University have been to get people registered... Not very keen, I suspect, with this being the fallow year for local elections. I would be very interested to know what the electorate is in Gorton compared to 2015 or the Referendum. Will that be announced somewhere in advance of the poll? (deadline for registration was the 14th, it says on the council website.. Hah hah! stole not sole! |
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neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
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Post by neilm on Apr 17, 2017 19:51:29 GMT
Weren't the Lib Dems also initially supportive of invading Iraq?
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Post by andrew111 on Apr 17, 2017 19:53:42 GMT
I thought the Lib Dem commitment was for an in/out referendum only in the event of "Treaty Change".. Which did not happen in 2010-2015, so no referendum.... In general under Clegg's leadership the Lib Dems seemed to always be in favour of holding an In/Out referendum at any time it was unlikely to happen. Yes, that is an accurate assessment of Cleggist policy, I would say. It is a bit like the Tory commitment to a cap on social care costs... Always jam tomorrow.... |
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neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
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Post by neilm on Apr 17, 2017 19:54:39 GMT
Are Greems like big gremlins? yes I suppose the trick is to identify the non-student half of the Green vote The Greem that sole Christmas? (I was on my phone, that is my excuse!) I have a feeling that students will play only a small role in this by-election. Why go through that personal registration hassle when no significant elections are in prospect?? It depends a lot on how keen the LA and the University have been to get people registered... Not very keen, I suspect, with this being the fallow year for local elections. I would be very interested to know what the electorate is in Gorton compared to 2015 or the Referendum. Will that be announced somewhere in advance of the poll? (deadline for registration was the 14th, it says on the council website.. The NUS are (or were, at least) pushing registration and a number of students' unions run campaigns on it, some of them focusing on how easy it is. I think student registration may be higher than we think (disclaimer: technically, I'm a student and all of my student acquaintances are registered, but then I'm in my thirties and doing an MBA so we're hardly a cross section!). |
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Post by andrew111 on Apr 17, 2017 20:05:36 GMT
Weren't the Lib Dems also initially supportive of invading Iraq? The Lib Dems were in favour of the second Iraq war only if there was a UN resolution. I think that was a pretty consistent position |
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Post by andrew111 on Apr 17, 2017 20:14:34 GMT
The Greem that sole Christmas? (I was on my phone, that is my excuse!) I have a feeling that students will play only a small role in this by-election. Why go through that personal registration hassle when no significant elections are in prospect?? It depends a lot on how keen the LA and the University have been to get people registered... Not very keen, I suspect, with this being the fallow year for local elections. I would be very interested to know what the electorate is in Gorton compared to 2015 or the Referendum. Will that be announced somewhere in advance of the poll? (deadline for registration was the 14th, it says on the council website.. The NUS are (or were, at least) pushing registration and a number of students' unions run campaigns on it, some of them focusing on how easy it is. I think student registration may be higher than we think (disclaimer: technically, I'm a student and all of my student acquaintances are registered, but then I'm in my thirties and doing an MBA so we're hardly a cross section!). Yes, you definitely don't count as a "student!" In my experience as a lecturer for many years UG students do absolutely everything at the last minute. So having the final deadline for registration in the middle of the Easter vacation is not helpful. |
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