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Post by andrew111 on Apr 16, 2017 18:36:10 GMT
Galloway mercenary is.... priority book selling must be...
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Post by andrew111 on Apr 16, 2017 18:52:31 GMT
In Stoke the Tories spent £80k to more or less keep their vote the same (+1.8% but there were 6.8% from Mark Breeze to redistribute). If they spend that in Gorton they might keep their vote at 9.7% if they spend a load of cash. Otherwise they will get squeezed down to 6$ or so by the Lib Dems. Greens will get squeezed and I would be surprised if UKIP keep their deposit. Not sure what Galloway will get. He is getting a lot of selfies with voters but I suspect most of them are going home and saying "Guess what! I got a selfie with the guy in the red leotard!"
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Post by andrew111 on Apr 16, 2017 18:54:28 GMT
Anyway I think the Lib Dems are probably about right with 30%, (a normal vote in the constituency in the past, after all), but whether they can get any higher is anyone's guess..
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Post by gwynthegriff on Apr 16, 2017 21:11:35 GMT
In Stoke the Tories spent £80k to more or less keep their vote the same (+1.8% but there were 6.8% from Mark Breeze to redistribute). If they spend that in Gorton they might keep their vote at 9.7% if they spend a load of cash. Otherwise they will get squeezed down to 6$ or so by the Lib Dems. Greens will get squeezed and I would be surprised if UKIP keep their deposit. Not sure what Galloway will get. He is getting a lot of selfies with voters but I suspect most of them are going home and saying "Guess what! I got a selfie with the guy in the red leotard!" I thought the Greens said they were really going for this one? |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Apr 16, 2017 21:15:44 GMT
According to their website the Green Party campaign office is only open Tuesday to Saturday.
Can anybody confirm if this is true?
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Post by greenchristian on Apr 16, 2017 21:20:25 GMT
In Stoke the Tories spent £80k to more or less keep their vote the same (+1.8% but there were 6.8% from Mark Breeze to redistribute). If they spend that in Gorton they might keep their vote at 9.7% if they spend a load of cash. Otherwise they will get squeezed down to 6$ or so by the Lib Dems. Greens will get squeezed and I would be surprised if UKIP keep their deposit. Not sure what Galloway will get. He is getting a lot of selfies with voters but I suspect most of them are going home and saying "Guess what! I got a selfie with the guy in the red leotard!" I thought the Greens said they were really going for this one? I believe this is the second time we've put any effort at all into a Parliamentary by-election campaign (the previous occasion being Norwich North in 2009, where I understand we put a fair bit of work into a couple of wards that were due to be transferred to Norwich South at the next general election). Whether what's been done is enough to make a big impact or not is something I don't know, since I've not been able to get up there. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 16, 2017 21:39:46 GMT
I thought the Greens said they were really going for this one? I believe this is the second time we've put any effort at all into a Parliamentary by-election campaign (the previous occasion being Norwich North in 2009, where I understand we put a fair bit of work into a couple of wards that were due to be transferred to Norwich South at the next general election). Whether what's been done is enough to make a big impact or not is something I don't know, since I've not been able to get up there. If you want to break through you do have to try you know... |
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Post by philipchandler on Apr 16, 2017 21:40:17 GMT
In terms of visible activity from the Greens - it's been two leaflets, one of which I mentioned above and the other one is almost identical (I imagine most people didn't read the first and certainly didn't read the second). I've seen one house with a Green poster. I am unable to tell you how much of an impact they are really making - but from where I'm sitting I doubt it would be too much.
I would expect Arthurs prediction to be somewhere almost right - I think Labour and Lib Dem combined will be around 70%. How it will break down between us though is another matter, and I wouldn't like to say right now.
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Apr 16, 2017 22:28:11 GMT
... Greens will get squeezed and ... I thought the Greens said they were really going for this one? Those two things are entirely compatible. |
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Post by yellowperil on Apr 17, 2017 7:31:32 GMT
Would it be fair to say that the high Green vote last time was a bit of an aberration probably largely the result of the almost total collapse of the Lib Dem vote, so now a for a resurgent Lib Dem campaign, taking back that Green vote was almost the first priority.
I think I agree the combined Lab/LibDem vote should be 70% or maybe a bit more. There are widespread reports that the Lab vote is quite soft, and the remaining question is whether the Lib Dems can put on the difference in the last fortnight and they do of course have form in doing just that at many previous by-elections. The added difficulty undoubtedly is the full national election programme at the same time, which may mean they just miss out.
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Post by finsobruce on Apr 17, 2017 8:44:59 GMT
Would it be fair to say that the high Green vote last time was a bit of an aberration probably largely the result of the almost total collapse of the Lib Dem vote, so now a for a resurgent Lib Dem campaign, taking back that Green vote was almost the first priority. I think I agree the combined Lab/LibDem vote should be 70% or maybe a bit more. There are widespread reports that the Lab vote is quite soft, and the remaining question is whether the Lib Dems can put on the difference in the last fortnight and they do of course have form in doing just that at many previous by-elections. The added difficulty undoubtedly is the full national election programme at the same time, which may mean they just miss out. No, it wouldn't really be fair. there are plenty of places where the Lib Dem vote collapsed at the last election and the Green vote did not make a corresponding gain. this is a goodish seat for them, but as we know they aren't particularly good at by-elections. In councils where the greens have made a significant surge (Brighton and Norwich come to mind) the Lib dems have been the ones to suffer big time. It's hardly a full national election programme at the same time...the mayoral elections in Manchester and Liverpool add to the workload but they couldn't have been forseen at the election. |
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Post by iain on Apr 17, 2017 9:45:58 GMT
The Lib Dems were not the ones who suffered in Brighton - we've never had any real base there.
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Post by justin124 on Apr 17, 2017 12:28:43 GMT
I thought the Greens said they were really going for this one? I believe this is the second time we've put any effort at all into a Parliamentary by-election campaign (the previous occasion being Norwich North in 2009, where I understand we put a fair bit of work into a couple of wards that were due to be transferred to Norwich South at the next general election). Whether what's been done is enough to make a big impact or not is something I don't know, since I've not been able to get up there. I live in Norwich North and was involved in that by election The Greens were active throughout the City part of the constituency and were relying on their strong performances at Local elections - particularly Norwich South - to produce a strong result for them. They were shattered to come fifth behind UKIP! No wards were transferred between the two Norwich seats for the 2010 election. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 17, 2017 13:27:08 GMT
As has been mentioned here before, many 2015 results will be looked on like 1997, as extremes under very unusual circumstances. The Greens were never this strong, nor LibDems so weak, as the 2015 result suggested.
Labour will win here, LDs on maybe 30-ish% in second. I will say.
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mboy
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Post by mboy on Apr 17, 2017 13:37:59 GMT
In Stoke the Tories spent £80k to more or less keep their vote the same (+1.8% but there were 6.8% from Mark Breeze to redistribute). If they spend that in Gorton they might keep their vote at 9.7% if they spend a load of cash. Otherwise they will get squeezed down to 6$ or so by the Lib Dems. Greens will get squeezed and I would be surprised if UKIP keep their deposit. Not sure what Galloway will get. He is getting a lot of selfies with voters but I suspect most of them are going home and saying "Guess what! I got a selfie with the guy in the red leotard!" I thought the Greens said they were really going for this one? Yes indeed. I've read a fair bit written by Green activists (not here) saying how angry they are that the Lib Dems haven't given them a free run at this seat as the Greens were the "obvious" challenger. I hope they can now see how ludicrous a suggestion that was!... |
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mboy
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Post by mboy on Apr 17, 2017 13:39:34 GMT
As has been mentioned here before, many 2015 results will be looked on like 1997, as extremes under very unusual circumstances. The Greens were never this strong, nor LibDems so weak, as the 2015 result suggested. Labour will win here, LDs on maybe 30-ish% in second. I will say. Seems eminently sensible. PS: Dok, when you coming back into the yellow team? Surely you should be at least "Lib Dem leaning" light yellow again now?  |
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Post by justin124 on Apr 17, 2017 14:08:04 GMT
The problem is that the LibDems have shown themselves to be very Tory -friendly. It is a bit like Franz Von Papen seeking left of centre votes in 1950 Germany after having entered a certain Coalition back in January 1933.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 17, 2017 14:17:00 GMT
The problem is that the LibDems have shown themselves to be very Tory -friendly. It is a bit like Franz Von Papen seeking left of centre votes in 1950 Germany after having entered a certain Coalition back in January 1933. Nick Clegg was essentially a socially liberal old school Tory wet Europhile [is there really any difference between him and Ken Clarke]. The survivors of the decimation are more likely to attach themselves to Labour in due course id have thought. Im not sure whether the Lib Dems could survive another coalition with us in the near future, and they will be aware of this. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Apr 17, 2017 16:06:36 GMT
The problem is that the LibDems have shown themselves to be very Tory -friendly. It is a bit like Franz Von Papen seeking left of centre votes in 1950 Germany after having entered a certain Coalition back in January 1933. Not sure that comparing Cameron with Hitler is a very sensible, reasonable or appropriate analogy. Actually, it just isn't. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Apr 17, 2017 16:15:04 GMT
I thought the Greens said they were really going for this one? Yes indeed. I've read a fair bit written by Green activists (not here) saying how angry they are that the Lib Dems haven't given them a free run at this seat as the Greens were the "obvious" challenger. I hope they can now see how ludicrous a suggestion that was!... Not been to Gorton (yet) but my impression of the Green campaign - purely from the interweb - is that: It's difficult to find out how to help; Nobody is churning out press releases to interest the media; The campaign is part-time. This doesn't seem the way to run even a half-serious campaign in a modern by-election. |
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