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Post by finsobruce on Feb 9, 2017 23:32:06 GMT
Is the Cotswold water park scandal still resonating i wonder? Bloody well ought to, but I don't think so, I don't hear any talk of it. Look at the 2015 results: the Tory and LD vote in raw numbers are pretty much swapped over, with UKIP disappearing altogether. If now, why not then? For the very obvious reason that you were still effectively in government with the Tories at that point.... UKIP are slowly melting away. Except in Tendring of course. |
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Post by carlton43 on Feb 9, 2017 23:33:21 GMT
What a bloody awful evening! Not the LDs' fault that they're the only party taking local by-elections seriously. I don't care about the reasons, the campaign details or the consequences.....up to a point. What concerns me is that my entry to the forecast competition is entirely fucked for the second week. |
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Post by finsobruce on Feb 9, 2017 23:35:40 GMT
What a bloody awful evening! Not the LDs' fault that they're the only party taking local by-elections seriously. 'twas always thus..... |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Feb 9, 2017 23:36:53 GMT
Not the LDs' fault that they're the only party taking local by-elections seriously. I don't care about the reasons, the campaign details or the consequences.....up to a point. What concerns me is that my entry to the forecast competition is entirely fucked for the second week. Ah, but look at poor old marksenior; all those penalty faults for being late, and he failed to predict LD gain in Fairford. How often is he overly pessimistic about the LDs? |
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Post by carlton43 on Feb 9, 2017 23:39:05 GMT
Not the LDs' fault that they're the only party taking local by-elections seriously. 'twas always thus..... We could consider burying the entire LD party in various well chosen potholes with loads of dog shit. |
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Post by marksenior on Feb 9, 2017 23:39:25 GMT
I don't care about the reasons, the campaign details or the consequences.....up to a point. What concerns me is that my entry to the forecast competition is entirely fucked for the second week. Ah, but look at poor old marksenior; all those penalty faults for being late, and he failed to predict LD gain in Fairford. How often is he overly pessimistic about the LDs? Yes Mea Culpa |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Feb 9, 2017 23:43:46 GMT
Bloody well ought to, but I don't think so, I don't hear any talk of it. Look at the 2015 results: the Tory and LD vote in raw numbers are pretty much swapped over, with UKIP disappearing altogether. If now, why not then? For the very obvious reason that you were still effectively in government with the Tories at that point.... UKIP are slowly melting away. Except in Tendring of course. Not sure that would explain it: firstly, people could have all voted UKIP in 2015, secondly, the Water Park scandal was a local issue, I'm not sure the coalition was relevant. What may be true is that CDC is a classic case of a council where one party has had a monopoly for ever and as usual whatever the party - and I don't exempt the LDs in the very rare case of a "safe" LD council - there is a stink of complacency and incompetence verging on corruption, of which the Water Park business was a prime example. I don't think it is a live issue as such but it perhaps changed perception of the CDC Conservatives long-term. |
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Post by Robert Waller on Feb 9, 2017 23:45:04 GMT
St John's (Fylde) result:
FRAT: 60.8% (+15.9)
CON: 30.0% (+4.4)
LAB: 4.9% (-8.4)
GRN: 4.3% (+4.3)
No IND and LDEM candidate as previous
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Post by finsobruce on Feb 9, 2017 23:45:30 GMT
We could consider burying the entire LD party in various well chosen potholes with loads of dog shit. LD gain Pothole Central, Pothole South and Pothole East. Re-count in Dogshit West. |
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Post by finsobruce on Feb 9, 2017 23:47:42 GMT
For the very obvious reason that you were still effectively in government with the Tories at that point.... UKIP are slowly melting away. Except in Tendring of course. Not sure that would explain it: firstly, people could have all voted UKIP in 2015, secondly, the Water Park scandal was a local issue, I'm not sure the coalition was relevant. What may be true is that CDC is a classic case of a council where one party has had a monopoly for ever and as usual whatever the party - and I don't exempt the LDs in the very rare case of a "safe" LD council - there is a stink of complacency and incompetence verging on corruption, of which the Water Park business was a prime example. I don't think it is a live issue as such but it perhaps changed perception of the CDC Conservatives long-term. The government is always relevant in all up elections. Agree with the second point. It was what started the Lib Dem revival in the Isle of Wight all those years ago. |
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Post by carlton43 on Feb 9, 2017 23:47:58 GMT
We could consider burying the entire LD party in various well chosen potholes with loads of dog shit. LD gain Pothole Central, Pothole South and Pothole East. Re-count in Dogshit West. Who on earth demanded a recount? I'm not touching those votes again. They can have the seat. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Feb 9, 2017 23:50:21 GMT
St John's (Fylde) result: FRAT: 60.8% (+15.9) CON: 30.0% (+4.4) LAB: 4.9% (-8.4) GRN: 4.3% (+4.3) No IND and LDEM candidate as previous That's a vote of confidence in a man of ever there was. |
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Post by andrewteale on Feb 10, 2017 0:00:31 GMT
Fylde result in votes
Ratepayers 564
C 278
Lab 45
Grn 40
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Post by middleenglander on Feb 10, 2017 0:30:29 GMT
Corby, Kingswood & Hazed Leys - Labour hold | Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2013 B | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | | Labour | 610 | 64.6% | +10.3% | +9.2% | +1.3% | -7.2% | -8.8% | Conservative | 252 | 26.7% | +12.5% | +14.0% | +13.2% | -1.5% | +0.2% | Green | 82 | 8.7% | -1.1% | -0.5% | from nowhere
| from nowhere | Row 4 column 8 | UKIP |
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| -21.6% | -22.7% | -21.6% |
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| Liberal Democrat |
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| -1.6% |
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| Total votes | 944 |
| 34% | 35% | 83% | 64% | 67% |
Swing Labour to Conservative 1.1% / 2.4% (if meaningful) since 2015, ~6% (if meaningful) since 2013 by-election ~2.9% 4.5% since 2011
Council now 24 Labour, 5 Conservative
Cotswold, Fairford North - Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative
| Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2015 | Liberal Democrat | 610 | 68.1% | +40.2% | Conservative | 270 | 30.1% | -20.9% | Green | 16 | 1.8% | from nowhere | UKIP |
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| -21.1% | Total votes | 896 |
| 71% |
Swing Conservative to Liberal Democrat 30½% since 2015
Council now 22 Conservative, 12 Liberal Democrat
Fylde, St John's - Fylde Ratepayers hold | Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2012 B | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | | Fylde Ratepayers | 564 | 60.8% | +15.9% | +19.1% | -4.8% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Conservative | 278 | 30.0% | +4.4% | +5.1% | +13.2% | -10.6% | -9.0% | Labour | 45 | 4.9% | -8.4% | -10.1% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Green | 40 | 4.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | +0.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Independent |
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| -10.9% | -12.3% |
| -37.1% | -38.1% | Liberal Democrat |
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| -5.4% | -6.1% | -5.1% | -22.3% | -22.9% | UKIP |
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| -8.2% |
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| Total votes | 927 |
| 26% | 29% | 76% | 49% | 50% |
Swing Conservative to Fylde Ratepayers ~ 5¾% / 7% since 2015 but Fylde Ratepayers to Conservative 9% since 2012 B
Council now 32 Conservative, 12 Independent, 2 Liberal Democrat, 2 Ratepayers, 2 Non-Aligned, 1 Labour
North Norfolk, Waterside - Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative| Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2012 B | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | | Liberal Democrat | 649 | 55.1% | +31.7% | +30.5% | +22.7% | +20.2% | +17.5% | Conservative | 410 | 34.8% | -3.6% | -4.7% | +7.9% | -1.1% | +1.7% | UKIP | 77 | 6.5% | -15.5% | -14.0% | -8.7% | -8.2% | -9.4% | Labour | 41 | 3.5% | -5.7% | -5.0% | -12.5% | -11.0% | -9.8% | Green |
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| -6.9% | -6.9% | -4.8% |
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| Independent |
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| -4.5% |
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| Total votes | 1,177 |
| 51% | 54% | 77% | 55% | 59% |
Swing Conservative to Liberal Democrat ~ 17½% since 2015, ~7½% since 2012 by-election and ~ 10½% / 8% since 2011
Council now 31 Conservative, 17 Liberal Democrat
Tendring, Great & Little Oakley - UKIP gain from Independent
| Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2015 | since 2011 | since 2007 | | UKIP | 216 | 36.8% | +14.1% | +19.1% | from nowhere | Conservative * | 171 | 29.1% | +1.4% | -10.2% | -20.3% | Labour | 117 | 19.9% | +5.5% | from nowhere | -1.3% | Liberal Democrats | 83 | 14.1% | from nowhere | from nowhere | +5.2% | Independent Howard ** |
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| -35.2% | -43.0% |
| Tendring |
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| -20.4% | Total votes | 587 |
| 51% | 74% | 96% |
* Conservative candidate in by-election was UKIP candidate in 2015 ** elected as Tendring in 2011 and Independent in 2015 Swing not meaningful Council now 27 Conservative, 13 UKIP, 5 Labour, 5 Independent3 Resident, 3 Non-Aligned, 1 Liberal Democrat, 1 Tendring 1st, 1 English Democrat, 1 Vacant
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Adrian
Co-operative Party
Posts: 1,742 
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Post by Adrian on Feb 10, 2017 1:55:51 GMT
Crikey - what a predictable set of results. A pattern seems to be setting in. Looking forward to the next general election, it seems clear (cet par) that the LDs will undo quite a lot of the damage done pre 2015. Not that that will affect T May very much, since she's rubbing her hands with glee at the prospect of winning a pile of seats where Labour are losing votes to all and sundry (i.e. Ukip).
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Post by into_oblivion on Feb 10, 2017 1:57:31 GMT
What a bloody awful evening! Not the LDs' fault that they're the only party taking local by-elections seriously. Only a matter of time until the other two catch on... |
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,815
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Post by right on Feb 10, 2017 5:06:22 GMT
So is the Tendring seat in the Clacton constituency?
In or out it seems to show that Carswell still has some pull locally.
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Post by mrhell on Feb 10, 2017 5:31:53 GMT
Only a town council result but a bit dramatic
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Post by greatkingrat on Feb 10, 2017 7:51:07 GMT
Anyone know why the Lib Dems only stood one candidate in Waterside in 2011? Was there a nomination screwup?
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 10, 2017 7:58:20 GMT
So is the Tendring seat in the Clacton constituency? In or out it seems to show that Carswell still has some pull locally. No - Harwich and North Essex |
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