Terry Weldon
Lib Dem
Councilor, Waverley BC and Haslemere TC. Lifelong liberal, in S Africa and now UK
Posts: 307 
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Post by Terry Weldon on Feb 3, 2017 0:26:36 GMT
The Labour gain from UKIP in Dinnington is confirmed. Any actual figures yet? |
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Post by marksenior on Feb 3, 2017 0:28:09 GMT
Dinnington
Lab 670
UKIP 303
Con 238
Ind Smith 232
Ind Hart 180
Ind Scott 81
Green 78
Lib Dem 75
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Terry Weldon
Lib Dem
Councilor, Waverley BC and Haslemere TC. Lifelong liberal, in S Africa and now UK
Posts: 307
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Post by Terry Weldon on Feb 3, 2017 0:28:28 GMT
Totally unpredicted. Until tonight, I saw no predictions that it would even be close - then M Smithson at Political Betting posted it would be "too close to call". What does this say about Stoke Central - which on the face of it, in terms of electoral history, is not too dissimilar? It means that we are about to sweep to victory. Sibboleth will be along in a minute to point out the meaningless of my post if he can be bothered but what the hell, you have to enjoy these moments. Go ahead - enjoy. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Feb 3, 2017 0:28:52 GMT
ROTHERHAM Dinnington
VJESTICA John (Labour Party) 670
HUNTER Lee James (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 303
MIDDLETON Christopher Norman (Conservative Party Candidate) 238
SMITH David (Independent) 232
HART Jean (Independent) 180
SCOTT Steven (Independent) 81
FOULSTONE Charles David Dowsing (Green Party) 78
THORNLEY Stephen James (Liberal Democrats) 75
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Feb 3, 2017 0:28:58 GMT
Is your signature a pensive reflection on defeat to @odo in the Newcomer of the Year competition, Adam in Stroud ? I wish I was clever enough to have thought of that. It was in fact inspired by cuthbertbede's signature; together they are two of my favourite Anglo-Saxon quotations. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Feb 3, 2017 0:29:35 GMT
The contrast beween the results in Brinsworth and Catcliffe, and Dinnington, tells a lot about the "LibDem surge", I think.
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,021
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Post by Khunanup on Feb 3, 2017 0:30:53 GMT
Brinsworth & Catcliffe (Rotherham) result: LDEM: 66.0% (+50.4) LAB: 17.1% (-26.2) UKIP: 12.8% (-16.4) CON: 3.0% (-8.8) GRN: 1.0% (+1.0) Boom!!! |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,036
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Post by Sibboleth on Feb 3, 2017 0:32:01 GMT
neccesary, but not sufficient. It wasn't that long ago you could deforest a small south american country and still get 5%. Theres a bit more than that going on Well, yes. You're out of government now. |
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Post by justin124 on Feb 3, 2017 0:32:42 GMT
The contrast beween the results in Brinsworth and Catcliffe, and Dinnington, tells a lot about the "LibDem surge", I think. Absolutely! |
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Crimson King
Lib Dem
Be nice to each other and sing in tune
Posts: 9,846
Member is Online
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Post by Crimson King on Feb 3, 2017 0:36:37 GMT
neccesary, but not sufficient. It wasn't that long ago you could deforest a small south american country and still get 5%. Theres a bit more than that going on Well, yes. You're out of government now. absolutely, that overwhelming toxicity has abated - perhaps quicker than one might have expected (but then a week is a long time etc) As David points out, we shouldn't be complacent, but it wasn't that long ago we would have done dreadfully in both ward (if a bit less dreadfully in one) but as I have noted before, I would rather be having to be constantly worrying that dramatic wins were a fluke, than the alternative |
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Post by justin124 on Feb 3, 2017 0:37:59 GMT
Very likely a strong personal vote for a local doctor rather than the LibDems per se.
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Post by oldhamexile on Feb 3, 2017 0:56:01 GMT
The contrast beween the results in Brinsworth and Catcliffe, and Dinnington, tells a lot about the "LibDem surge", I think. There is also the potential impact of Labour fielding an Asian candidate in Brinsworth & Catcliffe: a 90% White ward which elected a BNP councillor in 2008 and a UKIPper as one of their three last year. I see that this same Asian Labour candidate was the one who was beaten by UKIP for the third vacancy last year. She did defeat the BNP in this ward in 2012, but by that time the party was dying – and at 29.5% this was their best Rotherham vote that year. |
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Post by middleenglander on Feb 3, 2017 1:17:37 GMT
East Staffordshire, Town - Conservative hold | Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | | Conservative | 627 | 52.3% | -0.3% | +1.7% | +8.6% | +8.0% | Labour | 359 | 29.9% | -3.0% | -4.3% | -1.9% | -2.5% | UKIP | 213 | 17.8% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Green |
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| -14.5% | -15.1% |
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| Independent |
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| -24.4% | -23.2% | Total votes | 1,199 |
| 35% | 36% | 57% | 58% |
Swing Labour to Conservative ~1.3% / 3.0% since 2015 and 5¼% since 2011
Council now 25 Conservative, 13 Labour, 1 Vacant
Rotherham, Brinsworth & Catcliffe - Liberal Democrat gain from Labour sitting as Independent
| Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2016 "top" | since 2016 "average" | since 2015 | since 2014 | since 2012 | | Liberal Democrat | 2,000 | 66.0% | +50.4% | +48.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Labour | 519 | 17.1% | -26.2% | -20.2% | -30.6% | -33.5% | -37.7% | UKIP | 389 | 12.8% | -16.4% | -19.5% | -27.5% | -36.5% | from nowhere | Conservative | 91 | 3.0% | -8.8% | -10.0% | -8.9% | from nowhere | -12.6% | Green | 30 | 1.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | BNP |
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| -29.5% | Total votes | 3,029 |
| 75% | 82% | 53% | 93% | 103% |
Swing Labour to Liberal Democrat 38.3% / 34.4% since 2016 otherwise not meaningful
Council now 48 Labour, 13 UKIP, 1 Liberal Democrat, 1 Independent
Rotherham, Dinnington - Labour gain from UKIP
| Party | 2017 votes | 2017 shares | since 2016 "top" | since 2016 "average" | since 2015 | since 2014 | since 2012 | | Labour | 670 | 36.1% | +8.2% | +9.0% | +0.7% | -2.9% | -16.1% | UKIP | 303 | 16.3% | -9.9% | -10.6% | -14.0% | -25.8% | -0.8% | Conservative | 238 | 12.8% | -0.7% | -1.7% | -6.4% | from nowhere | -2.3% | Independent Smith | 232 | 12.5% | -9.4% * | -7.9% * | +3.5% | -6.4% | -3.2% | Independent Hart | 180 | 9.7% | +9.7% * | +9.7% * | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Independent Scott | 81 | 4.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Green | 78 | 4.2% | -6.3% | -7.0% | -1.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Liberal Democrat | 75 | 4.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Total votes | 1,857 |
| 51% | 55% | 32% | 61% | 70% |
* Independents Smith and Hart were two of the three Independents in 2016 polling 795 (Smith), 657 (Hart) and 620 Swing UKIP to Labour ~ 9% / 9¾% since 2016, ~ 6½% since 2015, ~ 11% since 2014 but Labour to UKIP ~7½% since 2012 Council now 48 Labour, 13 UKIP, 1 Liberal Democrat, 1 Independent
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Post by andrewteale on Feb 3, 2017 1:28:38 GMT
Any idea when the Lib Dems last won a seat in Rotherham?
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Post by AdminSTB on Feb 3, 2017 1:43:39 GMT
Any idea when the Lib Dems last won a seat in Rotherham? 2000, I think, when they won Thorpe Hesley. |
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Post by listener on Feb 3, 2017 1:54:07 GMT
Yes - Thorpe Hesley in 2000 on the old ward boundaries.
Before that, they won Thurcroft and Whiston in 1999.
Then you have to go back to 1988, when the SLD (Social and Liberal Democrats) won Central ward.
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Post by listener on Feb 3, 2017 2:03:01 GMT
The result in Brinsworth and Catcliffe follows on from Sunderland (Sandhill). It seems that Labour voters in Labour strongholds are returning to the Lib Dems for a protest vote, rather than UKIP. I am not sure that this necessarily means they are changing from Leave voters to Remain voters.
The Lib Dems could do rather well in the forthcoming county council elections, if they field enough candidates. Maybe they will take County Durham, which Labour has never lost.
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Post by thirdchill on Feb 3, 2017 3:57:05 GMT
The Lib Dems could do rather well in the forthcoming county council elections, if they field enough candidates. Maybe they will take County Durham, which Labour has never lost. Never mind my hat, I will eat my whole wardrobe if that happened. Labour in 2008 held county Durham and the opposition was split. Yes in the city of Durham lib dems should do well. Elsewhere it is very patchy. The independent presence is too strong for the lib dems to be gaining much outside of the city of Durham. |
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Post by Zardoz on Feb 3, 2017 5:22:00 GMT
The contrast beween the results in Brinsworth and Catcliffe, and Dinnington, tells a lot about the "LibDem surge", I think. Yes - it proves the old Lib Dem adage 'Where we work, we win'. We're working hard in Stoke! |
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Post by andrew111 on Feb 3, 2017 7:06:53 GMT
The result in Brinsworth and Catcliffe follows on from Sunderland (Sandhill). It seems that Labour voters in Labour strongholds are returning to the Lib Dems for a protest vote, rather than UKIP. I am not sure that this necessarily means they are changing from Leave voters to Remain voters. The Lib Dems could do rather well in the forthcoming county council elections, if they field enough candidates. Maybe they will take County Durham, which Labour has never lost. I think that as already pointed out, just standing a candidate will not win any seats for the Lib Dems in May.. the avalanche of Focus leaflets is what did it! A glance at Twitter shows that the Sheffield Lib Dem activists (eg Paul Scriven) were instrumental in Brinsworth and Catcliffe and if there were all out elections they would be busy in Sheffield. They did not have the resources to fight Dinnington as well... So in May I would look for Lib Dem gains in places like the SW where there is traditional support and activists in a good mood again, but only a few seats at most in places like Durham.. |
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