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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2017 17:19:07 GMT
That raises the intriguing question of who will come second...a surprise Lib Dem surge? A solid but predictable Tory placing? Or Stokies lapping up Babs's divine right of kings? 1. Lib Dem 2. Conservative 3. UKIP 4. Labour  Or maybe 1. Fielding 2. BNP 3. UKIP 4. .......... This is Stoke, so probably the latter. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Feb 23, 2017 17:19:58 GMT
1. Lib Dem 2. Conservative 3. UKIP 4. Labour Or maybe 1. Fielding 2. BNP 3. UKIP 4. .......... This is Stoke, so probably the latter. YMTTICPC |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2017 17:21:22 GMT
I suppose people wandering about in their dressing gowns must be a key Labour demographic.  I would like to be a fly on the wall in Darren Mott's office today. I'd like to know what his strategy is re Stoke? He's a smart cookie is Darren. I always think he could have made a good living as a stunt doubt for Daniel Craig had all else failed Yes, of course, that's probably right. I was curious from the outset about what the Conservatives were up to: were they going to make Labour or UKIP the primary target of their campaign? The vibes I was getting as the campaign progressed were that they were not short of mutual aiders, but it was clear they were keeping a relatively low public profile. I assume now they were focusing on telephone canvassing and targeted mail - a sensible strategy for a seat with an almost guaranteed low turnout. If they come a clear second, as is currently being rumoured, I think I will have the answer to my question. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 23, 2017 18:03:12 GMT
They probably knocked him out of bed after he's been on a night shift I would like to be a fly on the wall in Darren Mott's office today. I'd like to know what his strategy is re Stoke? He's a smart cookie is Darren. I always think he could have made a good living as a stunt doubt for Daniel Craig had all else failed Yes, of course, that's probably right. I was curious from the outset about what the Conservatives were up to: were they going to make Labour or UKIP the primary target of their campaign? The vibes I was getting as the campaign progressed were that they were not short of mutual aiders, but it was clear they were keeping a relatively low public profile. I assume now they were focusing on telephone canvassing and targeted mail - a sensible strategy for a seat with an almost guaranteed low turnout. If they come a clear second, as is currently being rumoured, I think I will have the answer to my question. I suspect you're right. If the Tories come a solid second in an alleged Labour-UKIP fight, that looks extremely good. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2017 18:23:00 GMT
Yes, of course, that's probably right. I was curious from the outset about what the Conservatives were up to: were they going to make Labour or UKIP the primary target of their campaign? The vibes I was getting as the campaign progressed were that they were not short of mutual aiders, but it was clear they were keeping a relatively low public profile. I assume now they were focusing on telephone canvassing and targeted mail - a sensible strategy for a seat with an almost guaranteed low turnout. If they come a clear second, as is currently being rumoured, I think I will have the answer to my question. I suspect you're right. If the Tories come a solid second in an alleged Labour-UKIP fight, that looks extremely good. ...and extremely bad for UKIP, which will probably lose yet another leader and most of whatever credibility it had left. Mrs May's destruction of UKIP looks like being accomplished very elegantly, and without in the least alarming or offending the little Kippers she seeks to welcome into her gently smiling jaws. EDIT:
How doth the little crocodile
Improve his shining tail
And pour the waters of the Nile
On every golden scale!
How cheerfully he seems to grin
How neatly spreads his claws
And welcomes little fishes in
With gently smiling jaws!
Lewis Carroll |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2017 18:34:11 GMT
I suspect you're right. If the Tories come a solid second in an alleged Labour-UKIP fight, that looks extremely good. ...and extremely bad for UKIP, which will probably lose yet another leader and most of whatever credibility it had left. Mrs May's destruction of UKIP looks like being accomplished very elegantly, and without in the least alarming or offending the little Kippers she seeks to welcome into her gently smiling jaws. come on down! |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 23, 2017 19:59:01 GMT
...and extremely bad for UKIP, which will probably lose yet another leader and most of whatever credibility it had left. Mrs May's destruction of UKIP looks like being accomplished very elegantly, and without in the least alarming or offending the little Kippers she seeks to welcome into her gently smiling jaws. very clever politics and auwful news for Labour if true, just imagine if all the seats Tories would take if millions of kippers switched to the Conservatives 😰 Except things are not quite that simple. 4 million voters in 2015 did not switch from the Tories to UKIP and if those voters are left without a home there's no reason why all or even most of them will switch to the Tories. The biggest beneficiary of the disappearance of UKIP might be the Lib Dems as they become the repository again for the generic protest vote. It goes without saying that the Conservative government will not go on forever enjoying healthy opinion poll leads - events will conspire sooner or later to make the government unpopular and it will be as well if there is another right wing party for people to register a protest vote with, otherwise they will by default go to parties on the left. There's little doubt that at least one of the council seats that the Conservatives gained from Labour here in 2015 was down to UKIP taking Labour votes and that pattern was repeated up and down the country including at the parliamentary level. Sure back in 2013 and at other times we have served to split the right wing vote but in doing that we forced the Conservatives to move into our territory (notably in achieving a commitment to a referendum) and in subsequent years we have effectively expanded rather than divided the total right vote, putting to bed the nonsense that used to be spouted about a 'progressive majority'. The disappearance of UKIP might suit Mrs May and it might suit the Conservative party's short term interests, but it certainly wouldn't serve the interests of conservatism in the UK well |
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Feb 23, 2017 21:12:51 GMT
Weather seems to be very dreadful, multiple reports of fallen trees blocking roads, and someone was injuried in Hartshill (which is in this constituency) by a flying carport.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 23, 2017 21:40:37 GMT
initially I read that as a flying carpet lol.. thought maybe Labour had devised a new way to get the muslim vote to the polling station
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Feb 23, 2017 21:42:55 GMT
Weather seems to be very dreadful, multiple reports of fallen trees blocking roads, and someone was injuried in Hartshill (which is in this constituency) by a flying carport. Barbara Fielding's method of sending them back? |
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Post by finsobruce on Feb 23, 2017 21:51:41 GMT
initially I read that as a flying carpet lol.. thought maybe Labour had devised a new way to get the muslim vote to the polling station Although apparently the first story to mention a flying carpet involved King Solomon, not Aladdin, and the addition of the carpet to the 1,001 nights is quite late. |
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right
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Post by right on Feb 23, 2017 21:52:37 GMT
very clever politics and auwful news for Labour if true, just imagine if all the seats Tories would take if millions of kippers switched to the Conservatives 😰 Except things are not quite that simple. 4 million voters in 2015 did not switch from the Tories to UKIP and if those voters are left without a home there's no reason why all or even most of them will switch to the Tories. The biggest beneficiary of the disappearance of UKIP might be the Lib Dems as they become the repository again for the generic protest vote. It goes without saying that the Conservative government will not go on forever enjoying healthy opinion poll leads - events will conspire sooner or later to make the government unpopular and it will be as well if there is another right wing party for people to register a protest vote with, otherwise they will by default go to parties on the left. There's little doubt that at least one of the council seats that the Conservatives gained from Labour here in 2015 was down to UKIP taking Labour votes and that pattern was repeated up and down the country including at the parliamentary level. Sure back in 2013 and at other times we have served to split the right wing vote but in doing that we forced the Conservatives to move into our territory (notably in achieving a commitment to a referendum) and in subsequent years we have effectively expanded rather than divided the total right vote, putting to bed the nonsense that used to be spouted about a 'progressive majority'. The disappearance of UKIP might suit Mrs May and it might suit the Conservative party's short term interests, but it certainly wouldn't serve the interests of conservatism in the UK well They seem more likely to go to the Tories than they were before they went through the UKIP wash. Some of them have broken multi-generational loyalty to the Labour Party, and I wouldn't underestimate the importance of that. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 23, 2017 22:18:10 GMT
Except things are not quite that simple. 4 million voters in 2015 did not switch from the Tories to UKIP and if those voters are left without a home there's no reason why all or even most of them will switch to the Tories. The biggest beneficiary of the disappearance of UKIP might be the Lib Dems as they become the repository again for the generic protest vote. It goes without saying that the Conservative government will not go on forever enjoying healthy opinion poll leads - events will conspire sooner or later to make the government unpopular and it will be as well if there is another right wing party for people to register a protest vote with, otherwise they will by default go to parties on the left. There's little doubt that at least one of the council seats that the Conservatives gained from Labour here in 2015 was down to UKIP taking Labour votes and that pattern was repeated up and down the country including at the parliamentary level. Sure back in 2013 and at other times we have served to split the right wing vote but in doing that we forced the Conservatives to move into our territory (notably in achieving a commitment to a referendum) and in subsequent years we have effectively expanded rather than divided the total right vote, putting to bed the nonsense that used to be spouted about a 'progressive majority'. The disappearance of UKIP might suit Mrs May and it might suit the Conservative party's short term interests, but it certainly wouldn't serve the interests of conservatism in the UK well They seem more likely to go to the Tories than they were before they went through the UKIP wash. Some of them have broken multi-generational loyalty to the Labour Party, and I wouldn't underestimate the importance of that. Oh sure and of course it's in their interests to take as many of these voters as they can as well as attracting back the likes of me who originally supported them. My point is that it would be more in their interest for UKIP to continue ticking over rather than be outright destroyed as a) it spreads out the number of parties who will be repositories of protest votes when they become unpopular (and on the whole, given UKIP's record of actually winning seats, a less threatening one than the other alternatives) and b) there will always be the likes of Pimpernal and Peterl who in the absence of UKIP would almost certainly prefer one of the leftist parties to the Tories. For these reasons I don't think the Tory party do want to see UKIP destroyed in Stoke (but certainly they want to see them diminished) but rather they want to avoid too great a humiliation of Labour (while hoping to heap their own humiliation upon them in Copeland) as it threatens there greatest current asset in Jeremy Corbyn. |
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Post by mrpastelito on Feb 23, 2017 22:31:46 GMT
Mrs May's destruction of UKIP looks like being accomplished very elegantly Indeed, and she'll come to regret it as thanks to her generous help, Labour's base in the North now won't come under pressure for another decade or so. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2017 22:38:36 GMT
Mrs May's destruction of UKIP looks like being accomplished very elegantly Indeed, and she'll come to regret it as thanks to her generous help, Labour's base in the North now won't come under pressure for another decade or so. That may yet be so. I wasn't making a value judgment, merely commenting on what I saw. |
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Post by carlton43 on Feb 23, 2017 22:39:11 GMT
They probably knocked him out of bed after he's been on a night shift I would like to be a fly on the wall in Darren Mott's office today. I'd like to know what his strategy is re Stoke? He's a smart cookie is Darren. I always think he could have made a good living as a stunt doubt for Daniel Craig had all else failed Yes, of course, that's probably right. I was curious from the outset about what the Conservatives were up to: were they going to make Labour or UKIP the primary target of their campaign? The vibes I was getting as the campaign progressed were that they were not short of mutual aiders, but it was clear they were keeping a relatively low public profile. I assume now they were focusing on telephone canvassing and targeted mail - a sensible strategy for a seat with an almost guaranteed low turnout. If they come a clear second, as is currently being rumoured, I think I will have the answer to my question. Or a shock win? I remain one of the only Conservative Gain voters here and feel more secure than the more numerous LD Gain voters. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2017 22:42:04 GMT
Yes, of course, that's probably right. I was curious from the outset about what the Conservatives were up to: were they going to make Labour or UKIP the primary target of their campaign? The vibes I was getting as the campaign progressed were that they were not short of mutual aiders, but it was clear they were keeping a relatively low public profile. I assume now they were focusing on telephone canvassing and targeted mail - a sensible strategy for a seat with an almost guaranteed low turnout. If they come a clear second, as is currently being rumoured, I think I will have the answer to my question. Or a shock win? I remain one of the only Conservative Gain voters here and feel more secure than the more numerous LD Gain voters. It occurred to me today that the Conservatives could plausibly win. I'd love it to happen as everyone would go entertainingly bananas, but sadly I doubt it will. |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Feb 23, 2017 23:04:49 GMT
Or a shock win? I remain one of the only Conservative Gain voters here and feel more secure than the more numerous LD Gain voters. Like you, I think the Tories were a better bet for Stoke than the LDs from the start. But the parties are playing different games. For the Tories to try to win and come second might look a disappointment given the national polls and the state of Labour - the opposite of expectation management. Whereas for the LDs to finish anywhere above UKIP will be a good result - partly because of where we start from in this seat, but more significantly because it would be a humiliation for Nuttal and putting the boot into UKIP has clear electoral for the LDs as potential recipient of protest votes in the event of UKIP imploding. (I'm not advocating that the LDs should try to position ourselves as the party of protest voters, but facts are facts.) |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Feb 23, 2017 23:12:43 GMT
Douglas Carswell admits that a UKIP gain is unlikely on Question Time.
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Post by carlton43 on Feb 23, 2017 23:16:50 GMT
Or a shock win? I remain one of the only Conservative Gain voters here and feel more secure than the more numerous LD Gain voters. Like you, I think the Tories were a better bet for Stoke than the LDs from the start. But the parties are playing different games. For the Tories to try to win and come second might look a disappointment given the national polls and the state of Labour - the opposite of expectation management. Whereas for the LDs to finish anywhere above UKIP will be a good result - partly because of where we start from in this seat, but more significantly because it would be a humiliation for Nuttal and putting the boot into UKIP has clear electoral for the LDs as potential recipient of protest votes in the event of UKIP imploding. (I'm not advocating that the LDs should try to position ourselves as the party of protest voters, but facts are facts.) Agreed Adam. I don't see UKIP pulling this and they might well come third. Foul weather, low poll constituency, duff candidates for Holder and Runner Up. LDs making a strong high profile campaign with local medic. That should shed Labour votes to you and UKIP votes to us and with luck keep a significant number of Labour and former UKIP at home. That is a recipe for an odds off chance for us? Medium term a UKIP meltdown would be a major benefit to you. For that reason alone and because I have worn the purple for some years myself, I do not want to see it happen. I don't think it will. A third place for UKIP would be a severe disappointment and stall progress and see a few more points off the National Polls. But it will not finish UKIP nor see a resignation by Nuttall unless his biog/CV/blog problems have really hurt or disturbed him. |
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