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Post by finsobruce on Feb 23, 2017 13:39:55 GMT
No empirical evidence but weather must have some effect on turnout. The benefit/disbenefit for parties will surely vary? Who has the hardiest voters? Dorset?  labour have the Keir hardiest, obviously. I'll get my deer stalker and copy of "Far from the Madding polling station". |
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Post by johnloony on Feb 23, 2017 13:53:31 GMT
I predict
Lab 7k Con 5k UKIP 4k LD 2k
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 23, 2017 14:01:21 GMT
Who has the hardiest voters? Dorset? labour have the Keir hardiest, obviously. I'll get my deer stalker and copy of "Far from the Madding polling station". I think you're the Oliver Hardiest |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 23, 2017 14:38:55 GMT
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Feb 23, 2017 14:53:44 GMT
Dorset? labour have the Keir hardiest, obviously. I'll get my deer stalker and copy of "Far from the Madding polling station". I think you're the Oliver Hardiest He's resting on his laurels though. |
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Post by froome on Feb 23, 2017 15:08:37 GMT
I think you're the Oliver Hardiest He's resting on his laurels though. I can't Stan any more of these awful puns. |
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Terry Weldon
Lib Dem
Councilor, Waverley BC and Haslemere TC. Lifelong liberal, in S Africa and now UK
Posts: 307 
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Post by Terry Weldon on Feb 23, 2017 15:10:46 GMT
In South Africa back in 1974, the weather was widely credited with tipping a crucial and historic by-election for the old Progressive Party. Earlier that year, the PP achieved its first breakthrough, going from a single MP (the wonderful Helen Suzman) to 6. One contest, for Pinelands, was delayed because of the death of the sitting MP. On election day, Cape Town produced its foulest winter weather - heavy winds and rain.
Pinelands should never have been a serious marginal: it had not even been contested by the Progs in the previous election four years earlier, but there was a degree of optimism based on the improved morale after the general, and they did have a strong candidate. Supporters of the United Party, who were defending, included many older people, and others with little strong interest in politics but voted largely on the basis of habit. (I used to meet voters while out canvassing who told me "I'm non-political. I vote UP"). The Progs on the other hand, had many enthusiastic young activists, with morale sky high after the earlier gains. I vividly remember my delight and surprise when the result came through - a PP majority of just 39.
There's no way to prove that the result would have been any different with better weather, but given the nature of the two parties' support base, I find it hard to believe that the weather had no effect.
(With the electoral wind at their back and six strong new MP's to support Suzman, the old Progressive Party continued to grow for some years, eventually replacing the UP as the official opposition in parliament. After some mergers with other splinter parties, and under a new name it is now again the official opposition in South Africa, under the current name of the Democratic Alliance.)
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Post by froome on Feb 23, 2017 15:12:51 GMT
Like it or not Benj, weather affects turnout, usually to the detriment of the Labour vote over the Conservatives. Evidence for this widely-believed claim is lacking. That is because it would be impossible to prove. If constituency A had poorer weather on voting day than constituency B and had a lower turnout, it would be impossible to prove that the weather caused the lower turnout rather than a myriad of other factors. However, as Catholic Left says, most people who had knocked up will know from the responses they have had that bad weather can significantly affect the likelihood of many people to vote. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2017 16:07:07 GMT
Nope, car still a status symbol, in fact most families around me have 2 or 3 |
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,626
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Post by ricmk on Feb 23, 2017 16:12:10 GMT
George Eaton is reporting Tory and Lib Dem sources both predicting UKIP 3rd in Stoke.
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Post by Andrew_S on Feb 23, 2017 16:23:37 GMT
George Eaton is reporting Tory and Lib Dem sources both predicting UKIP 3rd in Stoke. Not exactly reliable sources in this situation.  |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 23, 2017 16:28:44 GMT
That raises the intriguing question of who will come second...a surprise Lib Dem surge? A solid but predictable Tory placing? Or Stokies lapping up Babs's divine right of kings?
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2017 16:34:35 GMT
Nice campaigning style. Note how the guy has his hands across his chest in resistance to the message I suppose people wandering about in their dressing gowns must be a key Labour demographic. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 23, 2017 16:48:33 GMT
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2017 16:58:52 GMT
George Eaton is reporting Tory and Lib Dem sources both predicting UKIP 3rd in Stoke. Not exactly reliable sources in this situation. pinch of salt, still 5 hours till polls close. If they are saying similar things at 12am then fair enough. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Feb 23, 2017 17:03:12 GMT
Nice campaigning style. Note how the guy has his hands across his chest in resistance to the message I assume somebody is saying "Hide Corbyn, emphasise Snell". Is the voter in his dressing gown? Curious. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Feb 23, 2017 17:05:20 GMT
That raises the intriguing question of who will come second...a surprise Lib Dem surge? A solid but predictable Tory placing? Or Stokies lapping up Babs's divine right of kings? 1. Lib Dem 2. Conservative 3. UKIP 4. Labour  Or maybe 1. Fielding 2. BNP 3. UKIP 4. .......... |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Feb 23, 2017 17:07:00 GMT
Listened to the 4pm news on Radio Stoke.
No mention of any byelection.
One hopes they will not criticise any low turnout ...
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Post by gwynthegriff on Feb 23, 2017 17:07:49 GMT
George Eaton is reporting Tory and Lib Dem sources both predicting UKIP 3rd in Stoke. Please, oh please say it's true! The media fascination with them might finally fade away 🤞🤞🤞 Nah. They'll have a leadership election to enthuse about! |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2017 17:15:26 GMT
1. Putin
2. Snell
3. Nuttal
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