Stoke-on-Trent Central

[Richard Allen]

I will give Nuttall credit for having the guts to put his credibility on the line.

[timmullen1]

Jan 18, 2017 16:50:07 GMT Richard Allen said:

I will give Nuttall credit for having the guts to put his credibility on the line.

Unless serious backroom pressure has been applied it could be near terminal for UKIP's chances; their local Chairman, Mick Harold who ran in GE2015 and Tariq Mahmood, their candidate in Stoke South, have expressed a desire to run. We could see a repeat of the BNP in 2010 when Simon Darby was parachuted in to try and exploit Tristram's "imposition" it caused a terminal schism within Stoke BNP.

[AdminSTB]

Jan 18, 2017 13:10:10 GMT mrpastelito said:

Well with him running it's make or break for UKIP. He absolutely has to become at least a very close second or it's curtains for him, and the party as party (not necessarily as pressure group). We can then wait and see what Banks is up to.

If he doesn't win but gets a reasonable second a la Roy Jenkins in Warrington, it wouldn't necessarily spell doom for UKIP.

[slicesofjim]

Jan 18, 2017 16:50:07 GMT Richard Allen said:

I will give Nuttall credit for having the guts to put his credibility on the line.

Must. Resist. Cheap. Joke.

[mrpastelito]

Jan 18, 2017 17:31:14 GMT AdminSTB said:

Jan 18, 2017 13:10:10 GMT mrpastelito said:

Well with him running it's make or break for UKIP. He absolutely has to become at least a very close second or it's curtains for him, and the party as party (not necessarily as pressure group). We can then wait and see what Banks is up to.

If he doesn't win but gets a reasonable second a la Roy Jenkins in Warrington, it wouldn't necessarily spell doom for UKIP.

What I said?

[AdminSTB]

Jan 18, 2017 21:03:43 GMT mrpastelito said:

Jan 18, 2017 17:31:14 GMT AdminSTB said:

If he doesn't win but gets a reasonable second a la Roy Jenkins in Warrington, it wouldn't necessarily spell doom for UKIP.

What I said?

Yes, I'm backing you up.

[timmullen1]

Labour's timetable according to at Phil Burton-Cartlege: averypublicsociologist.blogspot.co.uk/2017/01/stoke-on-trent-central-selection.html?m=1

[Devil Wincarnate]

This is probably a better bet for Nuttall than standing in Liverpool Walton even though he is a Mickey Mouser. He'd surely have to put in some kind of appearance somewhere- and with three byelections over this side of the country, it would look odd if he did not.

[timmullen1]

Jan 18, 2017 22:33:34 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

This is probably a better bet for Nuttall than standing in Liverpool Walton even though he is a Mickey Mouser. He'd surely have to put in some kind of appearance somewhere- and with three byelections over this side of the country, it would look odd if he did not.

There seems to be a consensus that Leigh after Andy Burnham's election as Greater Manchester Mayor was the intended target up until the Stoke Central vacancy arose. I'd imagine Leigh was a more natural UKIP target than Liverpool Walton given the scare they gave Labour in Heywood and Middleton.

[oldhamexile]

Jan 18, 2017 22:33:34 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

This is probably a better bet for Nuttall than standing in Liverpool Walton even though he is a Mickey Mouser.

That aspect might be neutralised if Labour select Dr Hitchin. Perhaps the Tories could restore some balance by opting for an Evertonian?

Meanwhile the Stoke Sentinel has an update this morning. They name former Newcastle-under-Lyme BC leader Mike Stubbs, and 2015 Staffordshire Moorlands candidate Trudie McGuinness, as among Dr Hitchin's Labour rivals.

Shortlisting next Tuesday; selection Wednesday night.

www.stokesentinel.co.uk/contest-to-be-labour-s-stoke-central-candidate-heats-up/story-30069099-detail/story.html

[Devil Wincarnate]

Jan 19, 2017 0:47:11 GMT timmullen1 said:

Jan 18, 2017 22:33:34 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

This is probably a better bet for Nuttall than standing in Liverpool Walton even though he is a Mickey Mouser. He'd surely have to put in some kind of appearance somewhere- and with three byelections over this side of the country, it would look odd if he did not.

There seems to be a consensus that Leigh after Andy Burnham's election as Greater Manchester Mayor was the intended target up until the Stoke Central vacancy arose. I'd imagine Leigh was a more natural UKIP target than Liverpool Walton given the scare they gave Labour in Heywood and Middleton.

I'd forgotten about Leigh. A good point.

[Deleted]

Jan 19, 2017 7:38:34 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Jan 19, 2017 0:47:11 GMT timmullen1 said:

There seems to be a consensus that Leigh after Andy Burnham's election as Greater Manchester Mayor was the intended target up until the Stoke Central vacancy arose. I'd imagine Leigh was a more natural UKIP target than Liverpool Walton given the scare they gave Labour in Heywood and Middleton.

I'd forgotten about Leigh. A good point.

Leigh bears little resemblance to Heywood and Middleton in history or background, industrial and electoral. On the face of it, they are traditional Labour strongholds, but the Tories have always been much stronger in both the present H and M constituency and in the predecessor seats of Middleton and Prestwich, which was held by the Tories most recently from 1970-74 (by Alan Haselhurst, the Saffron Walden incumbent),and Heywood and Royton, which was only Labour underJoel Barnett from 1964 (and not always domfortably so).
Leigh has had a Labour MP since 1922, and was Liberal before that, the Tories never challenging there. Paul Nuttall would not find it a more comfortable fit than Stoke Central, or H and M for that matter,but UKIP could poll okay there.

[Deleted]

Hints of Farage umming and aahing over Eastleigh (or perceived to have been).

[timmullen1]

Jan 19, 2017 8:57:50 GMT CatholicLeft said:

Jan 19, 2017 7:38:34 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

I'd forgotten about Leigh. A good point.

Leigh bears little resemblance to Heywood and Middleton in history or background, industrial and electoral. On the face of it, they are traditional Labour strongholds, but the Tories have always been much stronger in both the present H and M constituency and in the predecessor seats of Middleton and Prestwich, which was held by the Tories most recently from 1970-74 (by Alan Haselhurst, the Saffron Walden incumbent),and Heywood and Royton, which was only Labour underJoel Barnett from 1964 (and not always domfortably so).
Leigh has had a Labour MP since 1922, and was Liberal before that, the Tories never challenging there. Paul Nuttall would not find it a more comfortable fit than Stoke Central, or H and M for that matter,but UKIP could poll okay there.

Whilst I don't disagree, from things I've read they always felt Leigh would be a stretch for UKIP but it has an advantage of sorts over Stoke Central in that as a local MEP who appears on North West TV as often as Farage appears on Question Time, he has some degree of name recognition which he doesn't have, outside the small UKIP membership bubble in Stoke (by their own admission they only got up to 200 members spread across Central and North during the Referendum campaign). Respectfully as well you've slightly missed the point that we were comparing Leigh with Liverpool Walton not Stoke Central - I specifically said that Leigh was the intended Nuttall target seat prior to Stoke Central's vacancy arising.

One other point about UKIP, Bill Etherington, West Midlands MEP and two-time leadership challenger, who is said to be distinctly underwhelmed by Nuttall, is pointedly refusing to comment either way.

[Deleted]

Jan 19, 2017 11:31:17 GMT timmullen1 said:

Jan 19, 2017 8:57:50 GMT CatholicLeft said:

Leigh bears little resemblance to Heywood and Middleton in history or background, industrial and electoral. On the face of it, they are traditional Labour strongholds, but the Tories have always been much stronger in both the present H and M constituency and in the predecessor seats of Middleton and Prestwich, which was held by the Tories most recently from 1970-74 (by Alan Haselhurst, the Saffron Walden incumbent),and Heywood and Royton, which was only Labour underJoel Barnett from 1964 (and not always domfortably so).
Leigh has had a Labour MP since 1922, and was Liberal before that, the Tories never challenging there. Paul Nuttall would not find it a more comfortable fit than Stoke Central, or H and M for that matter,but UKIP could poll okay there.

Whilst I don't disagree, from things I've read they always felt Leigh would be a stretch for UKIP but it has an advantage of sorts over Stoke Central in that as a local MEP who appears on North West TV as often as Farage appears on Question Time, he has some degree of name recognition which he doesn't have, outside the small UKIP membership bubble in Stoke (by their own admission they only got up to 200 members spread across Central and North during the Referendum campaign). Respectfully as well you've slightly missed the point that we were comparing Leigh with Liverpool Walton not Stoke Central - I specifically said that Leigh was the intended Nuttall target seat prior to Stoke Central's vacancy arising.

One other point about UKIP, Bill Etherington, West Midlands MEP and two-time leadership challenger, who is said to be distinctly underwhelmed by Nuttall, is pointedly refusing to comment either way.

But you did say that Leigh was the more natural UKIP target, given the scare in Heywood and Middleton. My point is that the Heywood and Middleton result has no bearing on Leigh, for the reasons I stated. I understood your point perfectly; I was just giving some context

[Deleted]

Also, trust me when I tell you that Paul Nuttall's appearances on Look Northwest and Granada Reports (and associated local political programmes) are not exactly making him popular. Better known, perhaps, but not exactly well-regarded.

[The Bishop]

But.....but I thought the entire "northern working class" were going to vote for him because he had a scouse accent??

[Deleted]

Jan 19, 2017 15:55:51 GMT The Bishop said:

But.....but I thought the entire "northern working class" were going to vote for him because he had a scouse accent??

[timmullen1]

Jan 19, 2017 15:46:32 GMT CatholicLeft said:

Jan 19, 2017 11:31:17 GMT timmullen1 said:

Whilst I don't disagree, from things I've read they always felt Leigh would be a stretch for UKIP but it has an advantage of sorts over Stoke Central in that as a local MEP who appears on North West TV as often as Farage appears on Question Time, he has some degree of name recognition which he doesn't have, outside the small UKIP membership bubble in Stoke (by their own admission they only got up to 200 members spread across Central and North during the Referendum campaign). Respectfully as well you've slightly missed the point that we were comparing Leigh with Liverpool Walton not Stoke Central - I specifically said that Leigh was the intended Nuttall target seat prior to Stoke Central's vacancy arising.

One other point about UKIP, Bill Etherington, West Midlands MEP and two-time leadership challenger, who is said to be distinctly underwhelmed by Nuttall, is pointedly refusing to comment either way.

But you did say that Leigh was the more natural UKIP target, given the scare in Heywood and Middleton. My point is that the Heywood and Middleton result has no bearing on Leigh, for the reasons I stated. I understood your point perfectly; I was just giving some context

I still maintain it's far more natural than Liverpool Walton, and it's you'll forgive me if I accept Andy Burnham's view that "Leigh could be as dangerous for the Party as Heywood and Middleton" (reaction to Corbyn's supposed immigration relaunch) over your 40 year old historical comparisons.

[Deleted]

Jan 19, 2017 16:43:26 GMT timmullen1 said:

Jan 19, 2017 15:46:32 GMT CatholicLeft said:

But you did say that Leigh was the more natural UKIP target, given the scare in Heywood and Middleton. My point is that the Heywood and Middleton result has no bearing on Leigh, for the reasons I stated. I understood your point perfectly; I was just giving some context

I still maintain it's far more natural than Liverpool Walton, and it's you'll forgive me if I accept Andy Burnham's view that "Leigh could be as dangerous for the Party as Heywood and Middleton" (reaction to Corbyn's supposed immigration relaunch) over your 40 year old historical comparisons.

You're excused Tim....Joking aside, I know Leigh very well and have stayed there many times. It is a typical area of industrial decline where a whole generation of younger people are now in unskilled work (or registered as sick), not as politically and socially engaged as their forebears were. It has definitely a sense of being a town unto itself (unlike Heywood and Middleton, which contains quite disparate and long-standing communities), with the constituency pretty much consisting of the Leigh Urban District Council and Golborne District Council.
Heywood and Middleton is not like Leigh, it has Manchester overspill estates that feel little affinity with the older established communities - I worked on Darn Hill in the 80s and the third generation residents spoke with the Manchester accents of their grandparents rather than the local Heywood accent (even though it is north of the town). The people of Middleton consider themselves Mancunians rather than having any connection with Rochdale, and Heywood's disconnect from Rochdale is even more profound and historical, and it would rather be with Bury. The constituency goes right towards the centre of Rochdale with Castleton, many of whose residents think they are a town unto themselves, even though Castleton used to stretch to where Rochdale Railway Station is.
Seriously Tim, they really aren't similar constituencies, although the level of disillusionment is possibly high in both places. My 40 year old comparisons aside, I lived in Rochdale for 8 years (until 1999). Labour were not the local government monolith they were in Leigh and much of Labour's strength is quite recent, with the Lib Dems having formerly been very strong in Castleton and the Conservatives strong in Bamford and holding all the seats in South Middleton ward until fairly recently. Of course, the Lib Dems were very strong in Heywood until fairly recently as well. Only Tyldesley and Lowton East have regularly voted for another main party candidate in recent years in Leigh, though Independents did well in Labour's difficult years.
Interestingly, Liverpool Walton, Leigh, and Heywood and Middleton constituencies have very small Black and Asian populations.
Could Labour lose Leigh? Of course, but it ain't that similar to Heywood and Middleton.