US Presidential Race 2020

[colm]

Nov 19, 2018 16:21:37 GMT jamie said:

I saw on Twitter that third parties had the lowest vote share in decades this midterm. Without a toxic candidate like Hillary, and Republicans learning to like or loathe Trump over 4 years, I wouldn't expect anywhere near as many third party voters.

As to the above post, 3rd party voters were shown to favour Clinton over Trump quite considerably, even Libertarian voters. Theyre mostly not closet Republicans. 

I expect 2020 to be very similar to the 2004 election. I expect it to be very close to it in terms of turnout with both candidates significantly improving their raw vote totals. Could both candidates perhaps hit 70 million?  I expect the third party vote to shrink to less than 2% and would not be surprised if the 2 party vote comes close to the 99% that Kerry and Bush acquired in 2004.  You have to go back to '84 for when it was less than 1%.

[Deleted]

Nov 20, 2018 1:08:43 GMT colm said:

Nov 19, 2018 16:21:37 GMT jamie said:

I saw on Twitter that third parties had the lowest vote share in decades this midterm. Without a toxic candidate like Hillary, and Republicans learning to like or loathe Trump over 4 years, I wouldn't expect anywhere near as many third party voters.

As to the above post, 3rd party voters were shown to favour Clinton over Trump quite considerably, even Libertarian voters. Theyre mostly not closet Republicans. 

I expect 2020 to be very similar to the 2004 election. I expect it to be very close to it in terms of turnout with both candidates significantly improving their raw vote totals. Could both candidates perhaps hit 70 million?  I expect the third party vote to shrink to less than 2% and would not be surprised if the 2 party vote comes close to the 99% that Kerry and Bush acquired in 2004.  You have to go back to '84 for when it was less than 1%.

Agree. And like then I’d only expect 2 or 3 states to flip.

I personally think Virginia is just a state Trump will NoVa win

[The Bishop]

Nov 19, 2018 12:43:57 GMT @conservativeestimate said:

Why do we think this? Trump slashed the Democratic margin of victory in Maine - it was 16% in 2012! Even Bush 43 didn't take Maine's 2nd District.

I don't get why people think Trump is somehow toxic in Maine and New Hampshire - Virginia for sure, but I don't see the argument in ME and NH.

Quite possible that HRC was herself pretty toxic in these states, and another Dem candidate in 2020 has a good prospect of doing better.

In which case Trump has missed his best chance?

[Devil Wincarnate]

Warren declares.
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/dec/31/elizabeth-warren-2020-run-president-trump

[Deleted]

I can’t think of anything less appealing than a Trump-Warren contest.

[Richard Allen]

Dec 31, 2018 17:26:04 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Warren declares.
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/dec/31/elizabeth-warren-2020-run-president-trump

Anybody dumb enough to announce on New Years Eve has no business holding public office, let alone the Presidency.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Jan 1, 2019 0:39:17 GMT Richard Allen said:

Dec 31, 2018 17:26:04 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Warren declares.
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/dec/31/elizabeth-warren-2020-run-president-trump

Anybody dumb enough to announce on New Years Eve has no business holding public office, let alone the Presidency.

On this note, I notice talk that "Beto" (all good next saviours have to be referred to by their first name, of course) is under attack for having the temerity to adopt a traditional Democrat programme rather than change all his principles to keep his new groupies happy.

[jamie]

Jan 1, 2019 0:56:25 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

On this note, I notice talk that "Beto" (all good next saviours have to be referred to by their first name, of course) is under attack for having the temerity to adopt a traditional Democrat programme rather than change all his principles to keep his new groupies happy.

His groupies seem to be standing by him. The people attacking him are the hardcore Berniecrats who don't seem to have realised that not every 2016 Sanders supporter demands left wing ideological purity (and Bernie isn't ideological pure anyways; see immigration and guns). 

[jamie]

Jan 1, 2019 0:39:17 GMT Richard Allen said:

Anybody dumb enough to announce drink beer on Instagram Live on New Years Eve has no business holding public office, let alone the Presidency.

Updated. 

[Deleted]

The last person to be president having lost a primary was George H.W. Bush.

2020 will be like 2004 - 3 or 4 states will flip.

[john07]

Jan 1, 2019 8:13:16 GMT @conservativeestimate said:

The last person to be president having lost a primary was George H.W. Bush.

‘Lost a primary’?

Please explain.

[Richard Allen]

Jan 1, 2019 12:03:52 GMT john07 said:

Jan 1, 2019 8:13:16 GMT @conservativeestimate said:

The last person to be president having lost a primary was George H.W. Bush.

‘Lost a primary’?

Please explain.

I assume he means elected as President after having previously ran and failing to win their party's nomination.

[Deleted]

Jan 1, 2019 12:03:52 GMT john07 said:

Jan 1, 2019 8:13:16 GMT @conservativeestimate said:

The last person to be president having lost a primary was George H.W. Bush.

‘Lost a primary’?

Please explain.

President having lost primary. Bush: lost 1980 primary; elected President in 1988. 

The point being that a retread may not be the Democrats' best choice for 2020.

[Deleted]

Dec 31, 2018 17:51:44 GMT @web said:

I can’t think of anything less appealing than a Trump-Warren contest.

I can. 2016

[Deleted]

I know it's early but primary polling for Maschettes doesn't look good for Warren. If you can't win on home turf...

[pragmaticidealist]

Jan 1, 2019 1:51:21 GMT jamie said:

Jan 1, 2019 0:56:25 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

On this note, I notice talk that "Beto" (all good next saviours have to be referred to by their first name, of course) is under attack for having the temerity to adopt a traditional Democrat programme rather than change all his principles to keep his new groupies happy.

His groupies seem to be standing by him. The people attacking him are the hardcore Berniecrats who don't seem to have realised that not every 2016 Sanders supporter demands left wing ideological purity (and Bernie isn't ideological pure anyways; see immigration and guns). 

Given that he's a member of the New Democrat Coalition, it's impressive that he's as popular as he is on the more radical parts of the American left.

[johnloony]

Jan 1, 2019 12:48:34 GMT @conservativeestimate said:

Jan 1, 2019 12:03:52 GMT john07 said:

‘Lost a primary’?

Please explain.

President having lost primary. Bush: lost 1980 primary; elected President in 1988. 

There are lots of primaries each time, but you seem to be implying that there is only one. Trump lost quite a few primaries in 2016, as do most people who subsequently get elected as President.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2016_Republican_Party_presidential_primaries

[Deleted]

Jan 2, 2019 1:42:53 GMT johnloony said:

Jan 1, 2019 12:48:34 GMT @conservativeestimate said:

President having lost primary. Bush: lost 1980 primary; elected President in 1988. 

There are lots of primaries each time, but you seem to be implying that there is only one. Trump lost quite a few primaries in 2016, as do most people who subsequently get elected as President.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2016_Republican_Party_presidential_primaries

Nationally: Reagan in 1976, Bush in 1980.

[Devil Wincarnate]

It turns out that shit-stirring can be annoying when you're on the receiving end.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-46734423

[Sharon]

Washington Governor Jay Inslee has thrown his hat in the ring:  www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/01/washington-governor-jay-inslee-running-president/579217/?utm_term=2019-01-02T10%3A00%3A08&utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=the-atlantic&utm_content=edit-promo&fbclid=IwAR1HjDZDTz5U627TNskbaWuKe0PerAN2qtW-TgBpeeQWsdhZYZBIg_qs7bM