2018 Review - will it pass through Parliament?

[The Bishop]

Well indeed, and we know what a flexible term "no plans" is in practice.

[johnr]

They should head this off at the pass now. Because its not going to get passed. Better to start afresh to give the Boundary commisions time to deliver some sensible proposals that will get through. Some parts of the country are on 2005 boundaries, and if changes arnt made now, will be going into the 2022 election with those same boudaries.

[iolo]

Dec 22, 2016 21:03:09 GMT Lord Twaddleford said:

It probably will go through, though I'm rather hoping that it doesn't. I'm not really bothered by anywhere else (except the Scottish Islands, why do they get preferential treatment, but Anglesey* doesn't?), but the review for Wales is an utter travesty, particularly in the North (which admittedly isn't the easiest region to draw boundaries for, regardless of the numbers...). For one thing I really don't seen why the Commons needs reducing to 600 members from 650, especially when the Lords has 800+ members (and though not all of them are necessarily active, that's really beside the point).

Were it up to me, I'd keep the Commons at 650 members for now, and simply redistribute the seats based on that number. Also, I'd remove the special status that the Western Isles and Orkney & Shetlands receive to redress the gross malapportionment that occurs by letting them remain (whilst factors such as community ties are important, they must ultimately give way to maintaining decent apportionment, should a conflict occur).As we know, the  plan for Wayuls is to destroy Plaid Cymru representation, totally if possible.   I do agree - as a believer in democracy, I'd be happier with a 1000 MPs.   They could meet in the Albert Hall or somewhere. 


_{* And no, I don't bloody care if it has a bridge to the mainland and the others don't, it's still an inconsistent application of the rules...}

As we know, the plan for Wayuls is to eliminate Plaid Cyrmu representation.   As a democrat I think a thousand MPs would make more sense.   They could meet in the Millenium Stadium.

[finsobruce]

Jun 27, 2017 13:12:47 GMT johnr said:

They should head this off at the pass now. Because its not going to get passed. Better to start afresh to give the Boundary commisions time to deliver some sensible proposals that will get through. Some parts of the country are on 2005 boundaries, and if changes arnt made now, will be going into the 2022 election with those same boudaries.

and given the current intelligence level running through this government - what are the chances of that happening?

[An Sionnach Flannbhuí]

Jun 27, 2017 14:20:10 GMT finsobruce said:

and given the current intelligence level running through this government - what are the chances of that happening?

And this from a devotee of St. Jeremy-les-deux-E's and Diane Abbott.......!  

Now - eine kleine Mathematik, but bear with me.

If the average electorate was 100,000 and a 5% tolerance was in place, you could not create constituencies if every ward had 30,000 voters – nor even if every ward had only 10,550 voters (9 wards 94,950 – 10 wards 105,500). You would be reliant on some wards differing from the average to give you leeway.

On the assumption that the average is 100,000, that every ward has the same number of electors, and the tolerance is (A) 5%, (B) 7.5%, (C) 10%, here are where the problems lie. For the actual average electorate, just multiply everything up.

[Foggy]

Jun 27, 2017 8:03:04 GMT Richard Allen said:

They were never going to announce changes in the answer to an opposition question in the Lords.

Indeed, fair point. Since it wasn't mentioned in the Queen's Speech I'm glad someone's asked about it so early in the Parliament, though.

Jun 27, 2017 13:18:07 GMT iolo said:

Dec 22, 2016 21:03:09 GMT Lord Twaddleford said:

As we know, the  plan for Wayuls is to destroy Plaid Cymru representation, totally if possible.   I do agree - as a believer in democracy, I'd be happier with a 1000 MPs.   They could meet in the Albert Hall or somewhere. 

As we know, the plan for Wayuls is to eliminate Plaid Cyrmu representation.   As a democrat I think a thousand MPs would make more sense.   They could meet in the Millennium Stadium.

Ha, I admire the wordplay, but I'm afraid the Stadiwm Principality (as it's now known for sponsorship reasons) actually has a capacity of 74,500 seats.

[mrpastelito]

Jun 27, 2017 20:51:06 GMT Foggy said:

Jun 27, 2017 8:03:04 GMT Richard Allen said:

They were never going to announce changes in the answer to an opposition question in the Lords.

Indeed, fair point. Since it wasn't mentioned in the Queen's Speech I'm glad someone's asked about it so early in the Parliament, though.

Jun 27, 2017 13:18:07 GMT iolo said:

As we know, the plan for Wayuls is to eliminate Plaid Cyrmu representation.   As a democrat I think a thousand MPs would make more sense.   They could meet in the Millennium Stadium.

Ha, I admire the wordplay, but I'm afraid the Stadiwm Principality (as it's now known for sponsorship reasons) actually has a capacity of 74,500 seats.

74,500 MPs it is then.

[cherrycoffin]

Not sure if correct thread but...

What would be the number of south west constituencies if the total number is 650 and what would the range of electors be.

Thank uou

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Tomorrow's the day for presentation of balloted Private Members Bills, and what's this to be presented by new Manchester Gorton MP Afzal Khan who came third in the ballot?

Parliamentary Constituencies (Amendment)
Afzal Khan
Bill to amend the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 1986 to make provision about the number and size of parliamentary constituencies in the United Kingdom; and for connected purposes.

[greatkingrat]

Unless the government have had a change of heart it will be blocked just like the last one.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Jul 18, 2017 10:00:28 GMT greatkingrat said:

Unless the government have had a change of heart it will be blocked just like the last one.

(Just a reminder that Pat Glass's Bill got an easy second reading in November 2016, but the government never brought forward a Money Resolution which it would have needed in order to proceed into committee. It's unclear whether Pat Glass decided to let the Bill drop in the new year.)

But there are two things that are different since the last one.

1) This session is not one (truncated) year but two, allowing more time. The government have less ability to delay the Money Resolution and block it that way. (It would also be contemptuous of Parliament to do so.)
2) It is possible to craft a Bill that will obtain DUP support and therefore have a majority on a whipped vote.

[Crimson King]

Jul 18, 2017 7:51:32 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Tomorrow's the day for presentation of balloted Private Members Bills, and what's this to be presented by new Manchester Gorton MP Afzal Khan who came third in the ballot?

Parliamentary Constituencies (Amendment)
Afzal Khan
Bill to amend the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 1986 to make provision about the number and size of parliamentary constituencies in the United Kingdom; and for connected purposes.

is there a link to the detail, or do we have to wait until tomorrow?

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Jul 18, 2017 10:19:21 GMT Crimson King said:

Parliamentary Constituencies (Amendment)
Afzal Khan
Bill to amend the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 1986 to make provision about the number and size of parliamentary constituencies in the United Kingdom; and for connected purposes.

is there a link to the detail, or do we have to wait until tomorrow?

If you mean the Bill text, you will have to wait for that. Highly unlikely to be ready for months. All we have is the long title, given above; although Afzal Khan may want to explain what he's proposing to do.

[Crimson King]

Thank you, I imagine it is unlikely he will be proposing to amend to a 500 seat HoC with a 2% tolerance, but we shall, as you say, have to wait

[iain]

Jul 18, 2017 13:10:17 GMT Crimson King said:

Thank you, I imagine it is unlikely he will be proposing to amend to a 500 seat HoC with a 2% tolerance, but we shall, as you say, have to wait

Second reading will be 1st December.

[Clarko]

Jul 18, 2017 13:10:17 GMT Crimson King said:

Thank you, I imagine it is unlikely he will be proposing to amend to a 500 seat HoC with a 2% tolerance, but we shall, as you say, have to wait

You realise I'm going to end up trying to map that now...

[Davıd Boothroyd]

One early clue about Afzal Khan's Bill is that the cosponsors for the Bill are Joanna Cherry (SNP justice and home affairs spokesperson), Hannah Bardell (SNP frontbencher), Alistair Carmichael (Liberal Democrat chief whip), Liz Saville Roberts (Leader of the Plaid Cymru Parliamentary group), Lady Hermon (Independent Unionist) and Caroline Lucas (joint leader of the Green Party of England and Wales).

[kvasir]

I guess the bill will not create a 650 seat parliament with a 10% tolerance threshold against the average sized seat based on census data rather than the electoral roll

[The Bishop]

It could quite possibly do two of those three things?

[kvasir]

I hope you are right but I will not hold my breath.