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Post by middleenglander on Nov 27, 2016 12:14:43 GMT
Angus, Arbroath East & Lunan as a result of the resignation due to ill health of Bob Spink (Independent) who first became a Councillor in 2003, elected to the current ward in 2007 and re-elected in 2012.
2012: SNP 1,624, Bob Spink 955, Con 547, Lab 472, LD 109 - 2 SNP, Bob Spink and Con elected
2007: SNP 1,902, Bob Spink 1,041, Con 789, Lab 677, LD 504, second Ind 281-- 2 SNP, Bob Spink and Con elected
Brenda Durno - SNP
Richard Moore - Liberal Democrat
John Ruddy - Labour
Kevin Smith - Independent
Lois Speed - Independent
Derek Wann - Conservative
I shall miss very much Maxque's contributions not least as I used them to check and correct my own historic figures.
I hope someone can take up the task recognising the similar work undertaken by Andrew Teale on Election Data. In the meantime .....
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,312 
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Post by maxque on Nov 28, 2016 7:02:20 GMT
I hope we won't have any issues getting the issues, I suppose johnr will be at the count. |
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Post by andrewteale on Nov 28, 2016 7:39:11 GMT
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Post by middleenglander on Nov 29, 2016 10:58:33 GMT
Turnout 21.5% with 2668 valid votes.
SNP gain from Independent with 34.4% of first preference votes.
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Post by middleenglander on Nov 29, 2016 11:20:20 GMT
Turnout 21.5% with 2668 valid votes.
SNP gain from Independent with 34.4% of first preference votes.No surprise there although that's quite a poor show for the SNP. Do you have any sources for confirmation? Per Council twitter |
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 29, 2016 11:31:56 GMT
Yes. here we look to an SNP drop and a Conservative increase if there is to be sustaining evidence that the one has seen and passed high tide and that the other is drawing in support from various sources. This will be instructive but far from conclusive even for Angus.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Nov 29, 2016 11:56:20 GMT
First prefs:
Brenda Durno (SNP) 919
Derek Wann (C) 709
Lois Elizabeth Speed (Ind) 452
Kevin Smith (Ind) 309
John Ruddy (Lab) 177
Richard Stanley Moore (L Dem) 60
42 ballot papers were rejected.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 29, 2016 12:06:30 GMT
Another solid Tory performance
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Post by jollyroger93 on Nov 29, 2016 12:29:21 GMT
I think that there's some real potential for the Conservatives to take the highest share of the vote in Angus, and highest share of Councillors if they run enough candidates. I think the SNP are going to be under real pressure in council's where the main opposition will be the conservatives. |
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Tom
Unionist
Posts: 1,998
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Post by Tom on Nov 29, 2016 12:33:59 GMT
I think that there's some real potential for the Conservatives to take the highest share of the vote in Angus, and highest share of Councillors if they run enough candidates. On current evidence I suspect they will run too few candidates. Only standing 11 in Aberdeen City and 16 in the Borders. |
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Tom
Unionist
Posts: 1,998
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Post by Tom on Nov 29, 2016 12:40:25 GMT
On current evidence I suspect they will run too few candidates. Only standing 11 in Aberdeen City and 16 in the Borders. Yes 11 in Aberdeen and 16 in Scottish Borders is madness: who cares about incumbents losing their seats? If they lose their seat against another candidate from the same party then they're obviously the less popular choice and should be removed anyway... Hopefully they will add more before the election if the evidence continues to show strong room for gains. |
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 29, 2016 14:35:52 GMT
That exceeds my best hopes of 10%+ for the Conservatives coupled with 5%- for the SNP by some margin. This is now evidence of a watershed for the Conservatives when taken with Dumfries and Banff. The Conservatives are starting to pull in votes from various sectors and this is growing very well.
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Post by philipchandler on Nov 29, 2016 15:51:20 GMT
The council have some detailed results on their website, all very interesting. Shows that, although it went to six rounds (with the last round after all except for the SNP eliminated, so a formality and only included because the SNP didn't get above 50% of the total vote in round 5), the Conservatives were never that close, gaining similar numbers from the Lib Dems, Labour and the first independent to be eliminated, and more transfers from the other independent went to the SNP. The preference summary is also very interesting, with the Conservatives and SNP getting a lot of sixth preferences to go with their firsts (so perhaps aren't that transfer friendly on the whole), and the independents getting the lion's share of second and third preferences. Not entirely sure what all this means for next May. |
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Post by middleenglander on Nov 29, 2016 16:45:04 GMT
Transfers
| Round 1 | Round 2 | Round 3 | Round 4 | Round 5 | Round 6 | | Scottish National | 919 | 925 | 956 | 1,010 | 1,172 | 1,357 | | Conservative | 709 | 723 | 741 | 799 | 928 |
| | Independent | 452 | 457 | 482 | 619 | |
| | Independent | 309 | 315 | 352 |
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| Labour
| 177 | 191 |
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| | Liberal Democrat | 60 |
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At round 5 SNP had 44.6% of the valid votes cast. At round 6, where the SNP was the only still standing, they had 51.7% of the valid votes cast. |
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 29, 2016 16:49:17 GMT
What would be the position if Round 6 failed to provide 50% of valid votes cast? Or the 'last possible round' in any contest.
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Crimson King
Lib Dem
Be nice to each other and sing in tune
Posts: 9,846
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Post by Crimson King on Nov 29, 2016 16:54:01 GMT
last one standing wins
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 29, 2016 16:56:53 GMT
Then why have a 6th Round (Final Round) when down to only two and one is ahead? |
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Post by middleenglander on Nov 29, 2016 16:57:18 GMT
Angus, Arbroath East & Lunan - SNP gain from Independent- based on first preferences | Party | 2016 votes | 2016 share | since 2012 | since 2007 | | SNP | 919 | 35.0% | -8.8% | -1.6% | Conservative | 709 | 27.0% | +12.2% | +11.8% | Independent Speed | 452 | 17.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Independent Smith | 309 | 11.8% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Labour | 177 | 6.7% | -6.0% | -6.3% | Liberal Democrat | 60 | 2.3% | -0.7% | -7.4% | Independent Spink |
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| -25.8% | -20.0% | Independent Watson |
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| -5.4% | Total votes | 2,626 |
| 71% | 51% |
Swing SNP to Conservative if meaningful 10½% since 2012 and ~6¾% since 2007 Council now 14 SNP, 8 Independent, 4 Conservative, 1 Labour, 1 Liberal Democrat, 1 Vacant
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Post by philipchandler on Nov 29, 2016 17:07:19 GMT
Then why have a 6th Round (Final Round) when down to only two and one is ahead? I believe that this election was counted by computer after scanning the ballot papers, and that the software seemingly is programmed in such a way that it will have another round if the quota (calculated based on first preferences) isn't reached, even if that would leave only one candidate. I wouldn't like to guess whether that is a feature or a bug of the software. |
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Post by La Fontaine on Nov 29, 2016 18:31:46 GMT
Then why have a 6th Round (Final Round) when down to only two and one is ahead? I believe that this election was counted by computer after scanning the ballot papers, and that the software seemingly is programmed in such a way that it will have another round if the quota (calculated based on first preferences) isn't reached, even if that would leave only one candidate. I wouldn't like to guess whether that is a feature or a bug of the software. I have raised this point a couple of times before. Unless whoever did the specification did not fully understand the system, it must be a mistake in the software. As it doesn't matter, nobody sees fit to correct it. |
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