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Post by thirdchill on Nov 6, 2016 22:36:25 GMT
Forum Competition on the same lines as for the 2012 US Presidential competition that took place on another site at that time (for some reason, can't find the name of it). The competition format is as follows:
Number of Electoral College Votes:
Clinton:
Trump:
Other:
If there is a tie for winner of the above, then the decider is done by predicting the highest percentage in a state (excluding District of Columbia) for either candidate. To differentiate clearly, this % should be to at least 1 decimal place.
Clinton highest %:
Trump highest %:
Lowest differential (combined) from the actual percentages wins.
Please post just predictions in here.
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Post by thirdchill on Nov 6, 2016 22:38:03 GMT
My Predictions:
Clinton: 323
Trump: 215
Other: 0
Clinton highest %: 66.3%
Trump highest %: 65.2%
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Post by A Brown on Nov 6, 2016 22:40:40 GMT
Clinton 323
Trump 215
Clinton highest: 68.1
Trump highest 68.5
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nitory
Conservative
Posts: 941 
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Post by nitory on Nov 6, 2016 22:48:47 GMT
Clinton: 341
Trump: 197
Other: 0
Clinton highest %: 67.2
Trump highest %: 68.7
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 6,137
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Post by Foggy on Nov 6, 2016 23:03:03 GMT
Clinton: 293
Trump: 234
Other: 11
Clinton highest %: 63.1
Trump highest %: 68.2
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Post by philipchandler on Nov 6, 2016 23:25:17 GMT
Can I ask for clarification of what happens in the case of a faithless elector? Will this be decided in the same way as the betting markets, ie, the result as it is declared on the night, with faithless electors having no impact, or are we basing it on the final official EC vote?
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Post by thirdchill on Nov 6, 2016 23:29:25 GMT
Can I ask for clarification of what happens in the case of a faithless elector? Will this be decided in the same way as the betting markets, ie, the result as it is declared on the night, with faithless electors having no impact, or are we basing it on the final official EC vote? Will have to go for declared on the night. Otherwise the final outcome of the prediction competition could take a long time, especially for the tie break. |
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Post by philipchandler on Nov 6, 2016 23:36:10 GMT
Very good. My prediction, then will be:
Clinton 352, Trump 186.
Clinton Highest 69.4
Trump Highest 66.3
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jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 7,056
Member is Online
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Post by jamie on Nov 6, 2016 23:37:00 GMT
Clinton: 352
Trump: 186
Other: 0
Clinton highest %: 63.7
Trump highest %: 67.5
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mondialito
Labour
Everything is horribly, brutally possible.
Posts: 4,961
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Post by mondialito on Nov 6, 2016 23:38:40 GMT
Clinton: 352 Trump: 180 Other: 0 Clinton highest %: 63.7 Trump highest %: 67.5 You have 6 EV missing... |
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jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 7,056
Member is Online
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Post by jamie on Nov 6, 2016 23:39:16 GMT
Clinton: 352 Trump: 180 Other: 0 Clinton highest %: 63.7 Trump highest %: 67.5 You have 6 EV missing... I noticed, corrected now  |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Nov 7, 2016 7:58:00 GMT
Trump 272
Clinton 266
Trump:64.2%
Clinton:69.9%
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Post by mrpastelito on Nov 7, 2016 10:45:04 GMT
Clinton: 259
Trump: 279
Other: 0
Clinton highest %: 62.9
Trump highest %: 68.4
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Malice the Red
Non-Aligned
What's so funny 'bout peace, love, and understanding?
Posts: 87
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Post by Malice the Red on Nov 7, 2016 11:48:31 GMT
Clinton: 323
Trump: 215
Other: 0
Clinton highest: 67.2%
Trump highest: 65.4%
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Nov 7, 2016 11:52:41 GMT
Clinton 412
Trump 126
Other 0
Clinton highest: 71%
Trump highest: 70%
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 7, 2016 11:59:39 GMT
Clinton 307
Trump 231
Clinton highest 72.3%
Trump highest 65.7%
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 7, 2016 13:15:37 GMT
This seems a pretty pointless exercise as none of us have the insider gut feelings that are necessary to make it worthwhile. Surely these are just very crude extrapolations from historic snap-shot polls that none of us have much faith in to start with? The result will depend upon turnout and indeed differential turnout rather as our Brexit vote did. I regret I think all these projections look like wet-finger-in-air garbage.
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Post by Lord Twaddleford on Nov 7, 2016 13:21:46 GMT
This seems a pretty pointless exercise as none of us have the insider gut feelings that are necessary to make it worthwhile. Surely these are just very crude extrapolations from historic snap-shot polls that none of us have much faith in to start with? The result will depend upon turnout and indeed differential turnout rather as our Brexit vote did. I regret I think all these projections look like wet-finger-in-air garbage. Perhaps so, but it's a little bit of fun all the same. |
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 7, 2016 13:27:40 GMT
This seems a pretty pointless exercise as none of us have the insider gut feelings that are necessary to make it worthwhile. Surely these are just very crude extrapolations from historic snap-shot polls that none of us have much faith in to start with? The result will depend upon turnout and indeed differential turnout rather as our Brexit vote did. I regret I think all these projections look like wet-finger-in-air garbage. Perhaps so, but it's a little bit of fun all the same. Is it? I see the point of our weekly Locals because between us we have a wealth of information and years of on the ground experience. Even here there are frequent serious errors. In cards terms this appears to me to be about the level of playing snap with a child with learning difficulties. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Nov 7, 2016 13:40:54 GMT
This seems a pretty pointless exercise as none of us have the insider gut feelings that are necessary to make it worthwhile. Surely these are just very crude extrapolations from historic snap-shot polls that none of us have much faith in to start with? The result will depend upon turnout and indeed differential turnout rather as our Brexit vote did. I regret I think all these projections look like wet-finger-in-air garbage. Some of us do have quite a bit of knowledge due to being, er, well, a bit obsessive about this election |
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