What if the Gunpowder plot had succeeded?

[The Bishop]

Nov 2, 2016 22:08:20 GMT carlton43 said:

Nov 2, 2016 22:03:52 GMT @williamhone1780 said:

Re Recusants, except in Ireland where of course Protestants made up a tiny minority. Like I said elsewhere, Ireland would (and did in 1641) break free.

We can never know but I warrant that the fervour of the moment and the will of the HOC would be a massive force sweeping through Ireland with sword and torch. There is no doubt at all in my mind that the island would have been entirely resettled in less than two years and in essence be a second very Protestant  Scotland.

Apart from anything else, I seriously doubt if there would have been the numbers for that.

A modern parallel for what you are suggesting might be (West) Pakistan's no holds barred attempt to finally subdue Bangladesh. It didn't work, of course.

[carlton43]

Nov 3, 2016 10:56:12 GMT The Bishop said:

Nov 2, 2016 22:08:20 GMT carlton43 said:

We can never know but I warrant that the fervour of the moment and the will of the HOC would be a massive force sweeping through Ireland with sword and torch. There is no doubt at all in my mind that the island would have been entirely resettled in less than two years and in essence be a second very Protestant  Scotland.

Apart from anything else, I seriously doubt if there would have been the numbers for that.

A modern parallel for what you are suggesting might be (West) Pakistan's no holds barred attempt to finally subdue Bangladesh. It didn't work, of course.

I think there would have been the numbers to achieve the conquest and re-settlement without doubt. The land use may well have changed to suit the smaller numbers of remainer settlers just as it did after the Black Death  in East Anglia. That coupled with more added value trades and more forestry could have been very beneficial. 

[Deleted]

Nov 3, 2016 11:16:00 GMT carlton43 said:

Nov 3, 2016 10:56:12 GMT The Bishop said:

Apart from anything else, I seriously doubt if there would have been the numbers for that.

A modern parallel for what you are suggesting might be (West) Pakistan's no holds barred attempt to finally subdue Bangladesh. It didn't work, of course.

I think there would have been the numbers to achieve the conquest and re-settlement without doubt. The land use may well have changed to suit the smaller numbers of remainer settlers just as it did after the Black Death  in East Anglia. That coupled with more added value trades and more forestry could have been very beneficial. 

And what would the native Irish be doing whilst English soldiers merrily evicted them from their homes and slaughtered them? Would they be lining up quietly and thanking their murderers whilst this cunning plan was implemented? I think not a long brutal guerilla war would by a triton exhaust England of men and resources. QUI BONO? nobody..!

[finsobruce]

Nov 3, 2016 11:25:11 GMT @williamhone1780 said:

Nov 3, 2016 11:16:00 GMT carlton43 said:

I think there would have been the numbers to achieve the conquest and re-settlement without doubt. The land use may well have changed to suit the smaller numbers of remainer settlers just as it did after the Black Death  in East Anglia. That coupled with more added value trades and more forestry could have been very beneficial. 

And what would the native Irish be doing whilst English soldiers merrily evicted them from their homes and slaughtered them? Would they be lining up quietly and thanking their murderers whilst this cunning plan was implemented? I think not a long brutal guerilla war would by a triton exhaust England of men and resources. QUI BONO? nobody..!

Don't drag Bono into this for god's sake

[Deleted]

Nov 3, 2016 11:27:31 GMT finsobruce said:

Nov 3, 2016 11:25:11 GMT @williamhone1780 said:

And what would the native Irish be doing whilst English soldiers merrily evicted them from their homes and slaughtered them? Would they be lining up quietly and thanking their murderers whilst this cunning plan was implemented? I think not a long brutal guerilla war would by a triton exhaust England of men and resources. QUI BONO? nobody..!

Don't drag Bono into this for god's sake

I got you babe...

[finsobruce]

Nov 3, 2016 11:28:58 GMT @williamhone1780 said:

Nov 3, 2016 11:27:31 GMT finsobruce said:

Don't drag Bono into this for god's sake

I got you babe...

Wrong Bono, Sonny.

[carlton43]

Nov 3, 2016 11:25:11 GMT @williamhone1780 said:

Nov 3, 2016 11:16:00 GMT carlton43 said:

I think there would have been the numbers to achieve the conquest and re-settlement without doubt. The land use may well have changed to suit the smaller numbers of remainer settlers just as it did after the Black Death  in East Anglia. That coupled with more added value trades and more forestry could have been very beneficial. 

And what would the native Irish be doing whilst English soldiers merrily evicted them from their homes and slaughtered them? Would they be lining up quietly and thanking their murderers whilst this cunning plan was implemented? I think not a long brutal guerilla war would by a triton exhaust England of men and resources. QUI BONO? nobody..!

The brutal fact is that the sensible and lucky ones would leave and the rest would die. The force that came in would be well armed, well led, well fed and well supplied with a continuing stream of willing reinforcements, whereas the defenders would quickly be short of everything and on continual retreat with ever lowering morale. There can be no doubt at all as to the outcome. Yes the English army would be involved but the 'real work' street by street and farm by farm would be accomplished by militia raised mainly in the north and Scotland who would have expectations, hatred and royal approval to aid them in their task. this would be awful but inevitable.

[finsobruce]

Nov 3, 2016 10:26:12 GMT carlton43 said:

Nov 3, 2016 5:43:05 GMT @williamhone1780 said:

Romans often did that but didn't work in the end

"Solitudinem faciunt pacem appellant" - They make a desert and call it peace  (Tacitus)

On the contrary it worked most effectively for the Romans virtually everywhere they felt the need to deploy it. Tacitus was against it rather than commenting on it not being effective. He was part of that liberal and 'modern' trend that led to their undoing just as it did with the British Empire.   

Tacitus as a Liberal Democrat - now there's a thought.

It's a two chariot race! Only Tacitus can win here! Please note our misleading abacus figures.

[The Bishop]

And you think, carlton, that the Catholic powers in Europe would just passively watch as there was an effective genocide of their "brethren" in Ireland?

No (as in Bangladesh in our lifetimes) outside intervention would likely be swift and pretty brutal.

As I said above, the outcome of this could well have been a Britain largely "cleansed" of Catholics - but the quid pro quo of that might well have been having to allow Ireland to go its own way. Of course, we would still have done our utmost to keep it as under our influence as we could - but IMO the scenario you outline was, even then, a non-starter.

[carlton43]

Nov 3, 2016 11:53:38 GMT The Bishop said:

And you think, carlton, that the Catholic powers in Europe would just passively watch as there was an effective genocide of their "brethren" in Ireland?

No (as in Bangladesh in our lifetimes) outside intervention would likely be swift and pretty brutal.

As I said above, the outcome of this could well have been a Britain largely "cleansed" of Catholics - but the quid pro quo of that might well have been having to allow Ireland to go its own way. Of course, we would still have done our utmost to keep it as under our influence as we could - but IMO the scenario you outline was, even then, a non-starter.

Then we have an honest disagreement.  And we cannot know.

The event at Westminster would IMO so polarize the protestant nation as to make nearly anything possible. The anger and the fervour and the religious certainty would reinforce the natural acquisitiveness also unleashed. I am utterly convinced of complete victory.

There must have been a chance of a punitive RC retaliation and if that were to have concentrated on Wales and or Ireland it would have posed severe difficulties. If they were lucky and initially successful it would only have concentrated the anti-papist feeling and the steely determination to extirpate Papism altogether and forever. In due course all the foreign invaders would be confronted and killed. There would be no prisoners in this conflict. Then we would be thoroughly militarized and very powerful and very angry and I think we might well have taken the argument to the Continent and decided to 'free up' parts of it and take them under our 'protection' and to take savage reprisals on all things Spanish.

Much could have been very different.

[Deleted]

Nov 3, 2016 12:09:28 GMT carlton43 said:

Nov 3, 2016 11:53:38 GMT The Bishop said:

And you think, carlton, that the Catholic powers in Europe would just passively watch as there was an effective genocide of their "brethren" in Ireland?

No (as in Bangladesh in our lifetimes) outside intervention would likely be swift and pretty brutal.

As I said above, the outcome of this could well have been a Britain largely "cleansed" of Catholics - but the quid pro quo of that might well have been having to allow Ireland to go its own way. Of course, we would still have done our utmost to keep it as under our influence as we could - but IMO the scenario you outline was, even then, a non-starter.

Then we have an honest disagreement.  And we cannot know.

The event at Westminster would IMO so polarize the protestant nation as to make nearly anything possible. The anger and the fervour and the religious certainty would reinforce the natural acquisitiveness also unleashed. I am utterly convinced of complete victory.

There must have been a chance of a punitive RC retaliation and if that were to have concentrated on Wales and or Ireland it would have posed severe difficulties. If they were lucky and initially successful it would only have concentrated the anti-papist feeling and the steely determination to extirpate Papism altogether and forever. In due course all the foreign invaders would be confronted and killed. There would be no prisoners in this conflict. Then we would be thoroughly militarized and very powerful and very angry and I think we might well have taken the argument to the Continent and decided to 'free up' parts of it and take them under our 'protection' and to take savage reprisals on all things Spanish.

Much could have been very different.

"...taken the argument to the continent"? That is equivalent of football hooligans trying to take on the SAT or Paras - no chance. THe Spanish had the best army in Europe at the time and English part - timers would have been slaughtered. Remember that England's most professional force was still 40 years in the future.

[carlton43]

Nov 3, 2016 13:41:57 GMT @williamhone1780 said:

Nov 3, 2016 12:09:28 GMT carlton43 said:

Then we have an honest disagreement.  And we cannot know.

The event at Westminster would IMO so polarize the protestant nation as to make nearly anything possible. The anger and the fervour and the religious certainty would reinforce the natural acquisitiveness also unleashed. I am utterly convinced of complete victory.

There must have been a chance of a punitive RC retaliation and if that were to have concentrated on Wales and or Ireland it would have posed severe difficulties. If they were lucky and initially successful it would only have concentrated the anti-papist feeling and the steely determination to extirpate Papism altogether and forever. In due course all the foreign invaders would be confronted and killed. There would be no prisoners in this conflict. Then we would be thoroughly militarized and very powerful and very angry and I think we might well have taken the argument to the Continent and decided to 'free up' parts of it and take them under our 'protection' and to take savage reprisals on all things Spanish.

Much could have been very different.

"...taken the argument to the continent"? That is equivalent of football hooligans trying to take on the SAT or Paras - no chance. THe Spanish had the best army in Europe at the time and English part - timers would have been slaughtered. Remember that England's most professional force was still 40 years in the future.

History of events and warfare are quite like football in that self belief is everything. We would have had our new model army much earlier, even more effective through being battle tested against a common enemy and by being unified and national without splits. The Spanish were already well past their best and flaccid, ill led and nothing like the indomitable force you may pretend. We would have the advantage of concentrating on one place at a time and then raising the locals to our side whilst deploying an ever-increasing navy to damage their supply lines from Spain and to Spain from the New World. it would have been great fun and we would have taken to it with gusto and complete success.