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Post by mrpastelito on Sept 15, 2016 22:51:25 GMT
Sometimes you really get the impression people with a knack for fighting by-elections were banned by statutory law from joining political parties other than the LDs.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 15, 2016 22:56:27 GMT
Lab 43.2% (-20.0) LD 28.1% (+19.0) UKIP 19.1% (+3.0) Con 5.1% (-2.5) Grn 4.5% (+0.5) Not a bad effort by mrhell and friends. Interesting to see the UKIP score up a tad in the circs. Labour vote drops by roughly same amount that LD rises, Tory vote does same with UKIP. In a way the big Labour wins here in the last couple of elections have perhaps been a bit illusory. Not only did the LibDems win this ward when they ran the council in the 2004-10 period, but back in the 1980s (when I was around) Blakelaw was one of *the* Labour/Liberal battlegrounds in the city - Labour failing to win it even in some good years overall. There is certainly scope for non-Labour candidates to do OK there. |
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Post by liverpoolliberal on Sept 15, 2016 23:13:13 GMT
Lib Dems HOLD Bishops Castle
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maxque
Non-Aligned
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Post by maxque on Sept 15, 2016 23:19:09 GMT
Lib Dems HOLD Bishops Castle LD 60.5% (-1.5) Con 30.2% (-0.5) Lab 6.7% Grn 2.6% (-4.7) |
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Sibboleth
Labour
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Post by Sibboleth on Sept 15, 2016 23:21:15 GMT
Am increasingly convinced that Peter Phillips had a negative personal vote.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Sept 15, 2016 23:24:06 GMT
Right, jolly good, I can go to bed now.
Another week, another bye-election gain, a retention, a decent second, and vote shares up across the board apart from a negligible drop on a very strong vote share in the retention.
All very satisfying.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 16, 2016 5:46:49 GMT
Con hold Puckeridge Con 42.9% UKIP 18.9% LDem 18.0% Lab 11.0% Green 9.1% Not bad in a ward we didn't stand in previously, though probably with a tiny turnout. Pretty grim for Labour. The old Standon ward (on which this ward is based) was Lib Dem held in the past (this is basically that old ward minus all the rural bits) Actually a pretty good result for UKIP and very pleaseing to come second, though I can see that there would be some potential for us there based on the demographics and the A10 corridor is the nearest we have to a stronghold in Herts. I would have predicted a decentish score for us there if our performances in recent by-elections (outwith Kent) hadn't been so dire |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 16, 2016 5:55:01 GMT
Obviously the circumstances were appalling and in a small ward that can matter a lot. And it has elected non-Labour councillors before and is not as monolithically working class as you might presume, but shit is shit and this is shit. IIRC the LibDems took a seat from us in a previous NE Derbs byelection about a decade ago, which had actually been unopposed previously  Holmewood & Heath in April 2008. It rung a bell when I saw this result that there had been something similar. I thought not as long as a decade ago as I don't think we were running the predictions competition that long ago (or even existed?) but it isn't far off |
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Post by mrhell on Sept 16, 2016 7:45:42 GMT
Not a bad effort by mrhell and friends. Interesting to see the UKIP score up a tad in the circs. Labour vote drops by roughly same amount that LD rises, Tory vote does same with UKIP. In a way the big Labour wins here in the last couple of elections have perhaps been a bit illusory. Not only did the LibDems win this ward when they ran the council in the 2004-10 period, but back in the 1980s (when I was around) Blakelaw was one of *the* Labour/Liberal battlegrounds in the city - Labour failing to win it even in some good years overall. There is certainly scope for non-Labour candidates to do OK there. I think the old Blakelaw ward was the LD/Lab battleground but Labour only won in 1995. Those boundaries included half of Kingston Park which was good for us and I think Kenton Bar which wasn't. Both aren't in the 2004 boundaries but part of the old Wingrove ward now is which is decent for us. That goes back out in 2018 and I think Kenton Bar comes in. A resident told someone that Kieran was a young Gerry Keating who was the long-term councillor there. |
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Post by middleenglander on Sept 16, 2016 8:30:31 GMT
Carlisle, Castle - Labour hold | Party | 2016 B votes | 2016 B share | since 2016 | since 2015 | since 2014 B | since 2014 | since 2012 | Labour | 398 | 46.5% | -3.3% | +6.3% | +8.1% | +9.2% | -10.3% | Conservative | 228 | 26.7% | +3.0% | -2.1% | +4.3% | +7.7% | +12.5% | UKIP | 107 | 12.5% | -1.2% | -2.2% | -9.4% | -10.4% | from nowhere | Liberal Democrat | 88 | 10.3% | +2.1% | +4.1% | -2.5% | -0.6% | -9.3% | Green | 34 | 4.0% | -0.8% | -4.3% | -0.5% | -3.5% | -5.4% | TUSC |
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| -1.8% |
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| Total votes | 855 |
| 78% | 37% | 90% | 73% | 73% |
Swing Labour to Conservative ~3% since 2016 but Conservative to Labour ~4¼% since 2015 and ~2% since 2014 by-election, otherwise not particularly meaningful
Council now 26 Labour, 20 Conservative, 4 Independent, 1 Liberal Democrat, 1 Other
East Hertfordshire, Puckeridge - Conservative hold | Party | 2016 votes | 2016 share | since 2015 | since 2011 | since 2007 | | Conservative | 179 | 42.9% | -24.6% | -27.2% | -33.2% | UKIP | 79 | 18.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Liberal Democrat | 75 | 18.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Labour | 46 | 11.0% | -8.9% | -18.8% | -12.9% | Green | 38 | 9.1%
| -3.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Total votes | 417 |
| 30% | 49% | 67% |
Swing not meaningful
Council now 49 Conservative, 1 Independent
Newcastle-upon-Tyne, Blakelaw - Labour hold
- amended for Conservative vote of 190 not 119 as initially reported
| Party | 2016 B votes | 2016 B share | since 2016 | since 2015 | since 2014 | since 2012 | Labour | 1,004 | 41.9% | -21.3% | -13.5% | -28.6% | -28.6% | Liberal Democrat | 654 | 27.3% | +18.2% | +18.0% | +9.3% | +5.0% | UKIP | 443 | 18.5% | +2.4% | +0.1% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Conservative | 190 | 7.9% | +0.4% | -3.6% | -3.5% | +0.7% | Green | 105 | 4.4% | +0.4% | -0.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Total votes | 2,396 |
| 82% | 52% | 89% | 87% |
Swing (if meaningful since May 2016 and 2015) Labour to Liberal Democrat 19¾% since May, 15¾% since 2015, 19% since 2014 and 16¾% since 2012
Council now 55 Labour, 20 Liberal Democrat, 3 Independent
North East Derbyshire, Tupton - Liberal Democrat gain from Labour
| Party | 2016 votes | 2016 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | | Liberal Democrat | 340 | 38.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Labour | 308 | 34.7% | -32.4% | -33.3% | -16.2% |
| Conservative | 155 | 17.5% | -15.4% | -14.6% | from nowhere | from nowhere | UKIP | 79 | 8.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | British People | 6 | 0.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Various Independents - 5 |
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| -49.1% | -49.9% | Total votes | 888 |
| 51% | 55% | 60% | 61% |
Swing not meaningful
Council now 33 Labour, 18 Conservative, 1 Liberal Democrat, 1 Independent
Shropshire, Bishop's Castle - Liberal Democrat hold
| Party | 2016 votes | 2016 share | since 2013 | since 2011 B | since 2009 | | Liberal Democrat | 862 | 60.5% | -1.5% | +7.1% | +12.8% | Conservative | 430 | 30.2% | -0.5% | -6.1% | -10.3% | Labour | 95 | 6.7% | from nowhere | +1.3% | from nowhere | Green | 37 | 2.6% | -4.7% | -2.3% | -9.2% | Total votes | 1,424 |
| 97% | 95% | 90% |
Swing Liberal Democrat to Conservative ½% since 2013 but Conservative to Liberal Democrat 6½% since 2011 by-election and 11½% since 2009 Council now 46 Conservative, 13 Liberal Democrat, 9 Labour, 4 Independent, 1 Green, I Non Aligned
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 16, 2016 9:26:08 GMT
IIRC the LibDems took a seat from us in a previous NE Derbs byelection about a decade ago, which had actually been unopposed previously Holmewood & Heath in April 2008. It rung a bell when I saw this result that there had been something similar. I thought not as long as a decade ago as I don't think we were running the predictions competition that long ago ( or even existed?) but it isn't far off The "old place" was set up in early 2006 I think? By those who missed the sadly short lived Vote 2005 site, probably this forum's original genesis. |
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Rural Radical
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Now living in a Labour held ward at Borough level for the first time in many years
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Post by Rural Radical on Sept 16, 2016 13:45:28 GMT
Am increasingly convinced that Peter Phillips had a negative personal vote. I believe he could be difficult at times 😒 |
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Sept 16, 2016 14:24:32 GMT
I believe he could be difficult at times 😒 I have certainly heard him described in rather colourful terms over the years. Including by people who I know always voted for him! |
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 16, 2016 16:17:19 GMT
In a way the big Labour wins here in the last couple of elections have perhaps been a bit illusory. Not only did the LibDems win this ward when they ran the council in the 2004-10 period, but back in the 1980s (when I was around) Blakelaw was one of *the* Labour/Liberal battlegrounds in the city - Labour failing to win it even in some good years overall. There is certainly scope for non-Labour candidates to do OK there. I think the old Blakelaw ward was the LD/Lab battleground but Labour only won in 1995. Those boundaries included half of Kingston Park which was good for us and I think Kenton Bar which wasn't. Both aren't in the 2004 boundaries but part of the old Wingrove ward now is which is decent for us. That goes back out in 2018 and I think Kenton Bar comes in. A resident told someone that Kieran was a young Gerry Keating who was the long-term councillor there. Labour certainly won it in 1988 - I know because I was there (helped win Jesmond for the first time ever as well) But we lost it in the 1992 post-GE depression (last time to date the Tories won anything in Newcastle/Gateshead) and I think you are right 1995 was our only win after that. Keating in particular narrowly held on lots of times! |
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Sept 16, 2016 17:10:10 GMT
Previous byelections haven't usually shown a big reaction to the misdeeds of the departing councillor transferring over to the new candidate. There is an effect, but it's a small one - not a 38% one. Not so. We had a torrid time in Manor ward, in Sefton, where one of our councillors was, whilst Mayor of the borough, convicted along with his wife of large scale benefit fraud. The Tories won the seat from us and we came third behind the LibDems, who actually won it the following year and our vote collapsed further. We now hold all three seats in the ward again. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 17, 2016 18:08:11 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 17, 2016 18:37:47 GMT
In a way the big Labour wins here in the last couple of elections have perhaps been a bit illusory. Not only did the LibDems win this ward when they ran the council in the 2004-10 period, but back in the 1980s (when I was around) Blakelaw was one of *the* Labour/Liberal battlegrounds in the city - Labour failing to win it even in some good years overall. There is certainly scope for non-Labour candidates to do OK there. I think the old Blakelaw ward was the LD/Lab battleground but Labour only won in 1995. Those boundaries included half of Kingston Park which was good for us and I think Kenton Bar which wasn't. Both aren't in the 2004 boundaries but part of the old Wingrove ward now is which is decent for us. That goes back out in 2018 and I think Kenton Bar comes in. A resident told someone that Kieran was a young Gerry Keating who was the long-term councillor there. Gerry Keating - what a man He was my Latin teacher in first form (2000). I was not a keen classics student and once decided to hide under his desk for an entire lesson for a dare. General sniggering throughout said lesson. Keating noticed me trying to escape after the lesson was up, and must have realised I had been there throughout. The best excuse I could come up with was "Sir I dropped my rubber". |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 17, 2016 18:41:47 GMT
Previous byelections haven't usually shown a big reaction to the misdeeds of the departing councillor transferring over to the new candidate. There is an effect, but it's a small one - not a 38% one. Not so. We had a torrid time in Manor ward, in Sefton, where one of our councillors was, whilst Mayor of the borough, convicted along with his wife of large scale benefit fraud. The Tories won the seat from us and we came third behind the LibDems, who actually won it the following year and our vote collapsed further. We now hold all three seats in the ward again. The swing in that byelection was 13% from Labour to Lib Dem (and only about 3% Lab to Con) and that was at the end of 2007 when Gordon Brown's popularity was starting to slump. The following elections in May 2008 were generally dire for Labour everywhere |
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Sept 17, 2016 21:44:37 GMT
Not so. We had a torrid time in Manor ward, in Sefton, where one of our councillors was, whilst Mayor of the borough, convicted along with his wife of large scale benefit fraud. The Tories won the seat from us and we came third behind the LibDems, who actually won it the following year and our vote collapsed further. We now hold all three seats in the ward again. The swing in that byelection was 13% from Labour to Lib Dem (and only about 3% Lab to Con) and that was at the end of 2007 when Gordon Brown's popularity was starting to slump. The following elections in May 2008 were generally dire for Labour everywhere Not that dire though. We did really badly and it was undoubtedly down to the case which dragged on for months. I couldn't blame the voters. He was a crook. |
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Post by mrhell on Sept 18, 2016 15:32:43 GMT
I think the old Blakelaw ward was the LD/Lab battleground but Labour only won in 1995. Those boundaries included half of Kingston Park which was good for us and I think Kenton Bar which wasn't. Both aren't in the 2004 boundaries but part of the old Wingrove ward now is which is decent for us. That goes back out in 2018 and I think Kenton Bar comes in. A resident told someone that Kieran was a young Gerry Keating who was the long-term councillor there. Labour certainly won it in 1988 - I know because I was there (helped win Jesmond for the first time ever as well) But we lost it in the 1992 post-GE depression (last time to date the Tories won anything in Newcastle/Gateshead) and I think you are right 1995 was our only win after that. Keating in particular narrowly held on lots of times! You're right about Blakelaw 1988 having looked it up. Gerry's narrow win in 1990 involved help from a certain Tim Farron. I was once told that one of the Tory Jesmond councillors (Chris Dempsey) in 1988 was busy helping a woman with a different campaign only to see Jesmond lost by 9 votes. Labour's loss in Jesmond 1991 and 1992 was also due to them closing Jesmond Pool which the community to this day has kept open. |
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