Witney

[Deleted]

Oct 15, 2016 13:46:11 GMT Jack said:

Former Conservative MEP backs Lib Dems because of Brexit:

ffs hes been a lib dem for 6 years.

Dishonest for implying that he was up to Brexit a tory.

[greenhert]

Hardly surprising, since Edward McMillan-Scott has been a Liberal Democrat himself for six years now.

[AdminSTB]

To the uninformed reader, that letter does give the impression he has only just made the move. Why else would he be mentioning Cameron's compassionate Conservatism? And anyone would think Theresa May had made a personal decision to take the UK out the EU without a referendum.

[AdminSTB]

David Cameron and Theresa May have been campaigning together here today. Jeremy Corbyn has been knocking on doors too.

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3839806/David-Cameron-joins-Theresa-election-campaign-trail-prepares-Oxfordshire-seat.html

[J.G.Harston]

Oct 15, 2016 16:52:00 GMT joe said:

Oct 15, 2016 13:46:11 GMT Jack said:

Former Conservative MEP backs Lib Dems because of Brexit:

ffs hes been a lib dem for 6 years.

Dishonest for implying that he was up to Brexit a tory.

You can tell it's a LibDem leaflet as it's full of random underlining.

Why do they do that? It makes it look like newbie "I've got 101 fonts and I'm gonna use them all".

[Khunanup]

Oct 15, 2016 19:20:22 GMT AdminSTB said:

David Cameron and Theresa May have been campaigning together here today. Jeremy Corbyn has been knocking on doors too.

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3839806/David-Cameron-joins-Theresa-election-campaign-trail-prepares-Oxfordshire-seat.html

How interesting that it doesn't mention the Lib Dems in that article at all...

The amount of effort the Tories are putting into this one now is far more than they expected to have too. Interesting that they didn't have May and Cameron knocking on doors. Wonder why...?

[Khunanup]

Oct 15, 2016 23:04:45 GMT J.G.Harston said:

Oct 15, 2016 16:52:00 GMT joe said:

ffs hes been a lib dem for 6 years.

Dishonest for implying that he was up to Brexit a tory.

You can tell it's a LibDem leaflet as it's full of random underlining.

Why do they do that? It makes it look like newbie "I've got 101 fonts and I'm gonna use them all".

Why do you think they do that?

[AdminSTB]

I would personally have preferred it if Cameron had served out the rest of this Parliament and not triggered this by-election at all, but notwithstanding that a defending party treating a seat as though it were a crucial marginal can only be a good thing in my book. There is one picture in that Mail article at least showing Courts, Cameron and May outside a house with the front door open, so presumably they would have knocked it.

Of course the Lib Dems should have been mentioned in that article - it is odd that they're not.  It may be because the Lib Dems are starting from fourth place in this seat, which on paper is not a great base to work from. I'm not suggesting they're not putting the effort in because they are, but as far as I know we haven't actually seen any polling evidence at all to suggest what kind of result we can expect.  The swing the Lib Dems need to win is similar to the one they achieved in Newbury in 1993 where there was a combination of the Lib Dem starting from a relatively strong second place, the Conservative government in its fourth consecutive term of office and well behind in the national opinion polls.  We're just not in that sort of territory at this moment.

[Khunanup]

Oct 16, 2016 1:14:53 GMT AdminSTB said:

I would personally have preferred it if Cameron had served out the rest of this Parliament and not triggered this by-election at all, but notwithstanding that a defending party treating a seat as though it were a crucial marginal can only be a good thing in my book. There is one picture in that Mail article at least showing Courts, Cameron and May outside a house with the front door open, so presumably they would have knocked it.

Of course the Lib Dems should have been mentioned in that article - it is odd that they're not.  It may be because the Lib Dems are starting from fourth place in this seat, which on paper is not a great base to work from. I'm not suggesting they're not putting the effort in because they are, but as far as I know we haven't actually seen any polling evidence at all to suggest what kind of result we can expect.  The swing the Lib Dems need to win is similar to the one they achieved in Newbury in 1993 where there was a combination of the Lib Dem starting from a relatively strong second place, the Conservative government in its fourth consecutive term of office and well behind in the national opinion polls.  We're just not in that sort of territory at this moment.

It says they were delivering though and from my experience May is not a popular Tory in Witney and its environs at least (Cameron is btw, that has been abundantly clear during this campaign) so it doesn't surprise me they're keeping her off the doorstep.

The Tories have been late to the party precisely because the work we've been putting in (if we hadn't run this as a serious campaign they wouldn't have come at all and just run a holding campaign to win with minimum effort). It's also pretty clear why the Mail are ignoring us, they're the press so they're carrying on doing what they're doing since last May and more specifically here we are the threat.

What I've taken from the campaigning I've done is how straightforward setting ourselves up as the opposition to the Tories has been (and these Mayite Tories at that, being seen as anti-Cameron) and the lack of any great enthusiasm for the product the government are selling.

[froome]

Have there been any constituency polls here yet?

[iainbhx]

There is unlikely to be anything but a voodoo poll for Witney.

I was there yesterday, Corbyn's "doorknocking" lasted about 30 minutes according to our spies.

I haven't seen a LibDem office that busy since Bromley & Chislehurst and in very good spirits.

[Andrew_S]

The electorate was 82,441 on 23rd June this year.

www.westoxon.gov.uk/media/1436954/EU-Referendum-Result-23-June-2016.pdf

If I had to guess turnout I'd go for 55% which would therefore be around 45,500 votes.

[Deleted]

It looks like the Mail piece was written by one of their clickbait churnalists so she probably didn't have any information about the local state of play beyond a list of candidates.

[Deleted]

Oct 16, 2016 7:53:46 GMT froome said:

Have there been any constituency polls here yet?

Ashcroft hasn't done any constituency polls since the GE and few others bothered in the past. I think he and others have concluded that there are too many reliability issues.

[marksenior]

Reports from various sources ( not all Lib Dem ) say postal vote returns so far have been very low which would indicate a lower overall turnout than forecast by Andy . Lib Dem campaign this weekend focused on the Labour areas of Witney itself which is now apparently a sea of orange posters and stakeboards . My own forecast is now a Labour vote share below 10% and a Lib Dem share just above 30% .

[andrew111]

Oct 17, 2016 7:32:13 GMT marksenior said:

Reports from various sources ( not all Lib Dem ) say postal vote returns so far have been very low which would indicate a lower overall turnout than forecast by Andy . Lib Dem campaign this weekend focused on the Labour areas of Witney itself which is now apparently a sea of orange posters and stakeboards . My own forecast is now a Labour vote share below 10% and a Lib Dem share just above 30% .

Mark,
Those two votes add up 40%. If we assume the others get 10% between them are you predicting 50% for the Tories?

[marksenior]

Oct 17, 2016 12:10:05 GMT andrew111 said:

Oct 17, 2016 7:32:13 GMT marksenior said:

Reports from various sources ( not all Lib Dem ) say postal vote returns so far have been very low which would indicate a lower overall turnout than forecast by Andy . Lib Dem campaign this weekend focused on the Labour areas of Witney itself which is now apparently a sea of orange posters and stakeboards . My own forecast is now a Labour vote share below 10% and a Lib Dem share just above 30% .

Mark,
Those two votes add up 40%. If we assume the others get 10% between them are you predicting 50% for the Tories?

Something like Con 45 LD 32 Lab 8 UKIP 5 Green 5 Others 5

[markgoodair]

Oct 15, 2016 13:46:11 GMT Jack said:

Former Conservative MEP backs Lib Dems because of Brexit:

I was his agent at the last General Election when he stood in Pontefract & Castleford.

[markgoodair]

Oct 15, 2016 13:46:11 GMT Jack said:

Former Conservative MEP backs Lib Dems because of Brexit:

I was his agent at the last General Election when he stood in Pontefract & Castleford.

[Arthur Figgis]

Oct 17, 2016 13:14:40 GMT markgoodair said:

I was his agent at the last General Election when he stood in Pontefract & Castleford.

Didn't he do well?