Prediction competition for September 2016

[middleenglander]

It looks like 30 by-elections during September:
* 5 on 1st September
* 4 on 8th
* 5 on 15th
* 1 on 20th (Tuesday)
* 9 on 22nd
* 6 on 29th

15 of the contests are for District Councils
- 3 that had elections in May this year, 12 in 2015
7 are in Unitary Authorities
- 1 with elections in May 2016, 4 in 2015 and 2 in 2013, although one of these has had a subsequent by-election
3 are for Metropolitan borough where elections last held in May 2016
2 for County Councils with elections last in 2013 along with
2 in Wales and 1 in Scotland where elections were last in 2012

Conservatives are defending 14 seats - 5 arising from the death of the former Councillor and 9 a resignation
Labour defend 10 seats - 7 following a death and 3 a resignation
Liberal Democrats defend 2 seats - both following a resignation
UKIP defend 2 seats - 1 after a death and 1 a resignation
SNP and Independent defend 1 seat each - both after a resignation.

With nominations known for 27 of the contests (3 on 29th September are still awaited)
Conservatives are contesting 27 seats, Labour 25, Liberal Democrats 22, UKIP 21, Greens 12, Independents 5 candidates contesting 4 seats, Plaid Cymru 2 and SNP 1
- along with 1 each for British People, Mansfield Independent Forum, Mebyon Kernow and People First
a total of 119 candidates for 27 seats so far.

Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am on day of election.

[Deleted]

1st September
Bournemouth UA, Kinson North Con 40% UKIP 25% Lab 20% LD 10% Green 5%
Cornwall UA, Four Lanes LD 29% Con 24% UKIP 20% Ind 14% Labour 8% Mebyon Kernow 5%
Dorset CC Ferndown - Con 50% LD 30% Lab 10% UKIP 10%
East Dorset DC, Parley - Con 45% LD 30% Lab 15% UKIP 10%
Stockton-On-Tees UA, Grangefield - Lab 55% UKIP 15% LD 15% CON 15%

[greenhert]

My predictions for 01/09/2016:

Bournemouth UA, Kinson North: Conservative 42, UKIP 21, Labour 21, Liberal Democrats 9, Green 7.
Cornwall UA, Four Lanes: Lib Dem 27, Con 24, UKIP 22, Independent (Webb) 11, Mebyon Kernow 10, Lab 6.
Dorset CC, Ferndown: Con 51, Lib Dem 25, UKIP 16, Lab 8.
East Dorset DC, Parley: Con 55, UKIP 19, Lib Dem 15, Lab 11.
Stockton-On-Tees UA, Grangefield: Lab 48, Con 33, UKIP 12, Lib Dem 7.

[marksenior]

Bournemouth Con 36 Lab 27 UKIP 17 LD 12 Green 8
Cornwall Lib Dem 24 Con 22 UKIP 20 Lab 17 Meb K 10 Ind 7
Dorset Con 38 UKIP 28 Lib Dem 25 Lab 9
East Dorset Con 51 Lib Dem 22 UKIP 20 Lab 7
Stockton Lab 47 Con 38 UKIP 10 Lib Dem 5

[maxque]

Bournemouth UA, Kinson North: Con 32.6, UKIP 29, Lab 20, LD 10, Grn 8.4.
Cornwall UA, Four Lanes: LD 20, MK 19, Con 17, UKIP 17, Ind 15, Lab 12.
Dorset CC, Ferndown: Con 46, UKIP 35, LD 10, Lab 9.
East Dorset DC, Parley: Con 59, UKIP 27, LD 7, Lab 7.
Stockton-On-Tees UA, Grangefield: Lab 50.6, Con 36.1, UKIP 7.9, LD 5.4

[Robert Waller]

Bournemouth UA, Kinson North: Conservative 34, UKIP 21, Labour 27, Liberal Democrats 15, Green 3.
Cornwall UA, Four Lanes: Lib Dem 22, Con 21, UKIP 12, Independent (Webb) 21, Mebyon Kernow 10, Lab 14.
Dorset CC, Ferndown: Con 51, Lib Dem 20, UKIP 23, Lab 6.
East Dorset DC, Parley: Con 58, UKIP 19, Lib Dem 17, Lab 6.
Stockton-On-Tees UA, Grangefield: Lab 45, Con 31, UKIP 16, Lib Dem 8.

[finsobruce]

Bournemouth UA, Kinson North : Con 35, UKIP 21, Lab 20, LD 15, Grn 9
Cornwall UA, Four Lanes : LD 23 , Con 21 , IND 16 ,Lab 15 , UKIP 15 , MK 10
Dorset CC, Ferndown: Con 47, LD 24, UKIP 20, Lab 9
East Dorset DC: Parley: Con 50, UKIP 25, LD 20, Lab 5
Stockton on Tees UA, Grangefield: Lab 48, Con 32, UKIP 11, LD 9

[Davıd Boothroyd]

BOURNEMOUTH Kinson North: C 45, Lab 26, UKIP 18, L Dem 6, GP 5
CORNWALL Four Lanes: Ind 27, UKIP 20, L Dem 20, C 16, MK 10, Lab 7
DORSET Ferndown: C 43, UKIP 28, L Dem 20, Lab 9
EAST DORSET Parley: C 48, UKIP 30, L Dem 16, Lab 6
STOCKTON-ON-TEES Grangefield: Lab 46, C 37, UKIP 12, L Dem 5

[casualobserver]

Kinson North - Bournemouth UA - C 31, Lab 21, UKIP 18, LD 16, G 14
Four Lanes - Cornwall UA – C 24, LD 23, Ind 15, Lab 15, UKIP 12, MK 11
Ferndown – Dorset CC – C 44, UKIP 27, LD 21, Lab 8
Parley – East Dorset DC - C 48, UKIP 27, LD 19, Lab 6
Grangefield - Stockton-on-Tees UA - C 41, Lab 40, UKIP 10, LD 9

[hempie]

Bournemouth, Kinson North: Con 34, Lab 24, UKIP 19, LD 18, Green 5
Cornwall, Four Lanes: LD 27, Con 20, Ind 20, UKIP 12, Lab 11, MK 10
Dorset, Ferndown: Con 48, LD 27, UKIP 20, Lab 5
East Dorset, Parley: Con 53, LD 23, UKIP 19, Lab 5
Stockton-On-Tees, Grangefield: Lab 48, Con 29, UKIP 15, LD 8

[middleenglander]

10 entries this week with Greenhert back after missing last week, Just Looking after nearly a year's break, casualobserver who I recall has competed before whilst finsobruce joins for the first time.

Bournemouth, Kinson North: 100% Conservative hold, 6 Labour as runner-up and 4 UKIP, with majority ranging from 3.6% (Maxque) to 21% (Greenhert)
Cornwall, Four Lane: 7 Liberal Democrat gain from UKIP, David Boothroyd & Pete Whitehead an Independent gain with casualobserver Conservative gain - highest predicted majority 7%
Dorset, Ferndown: 100% Conservative hold, 6 UKIP as runner-up and 4 Liberal Democrat, with majority ranging from 10% (Mark Senior) to 28% (Robert Waller)
East Dorset, Parley: 100% Conservative hold, 7 UKIP as runner-up and 3 Liberal Democrat, with majority ranging from 15% (Just Looking) to 39% (Robert Waller)
Stockton-On-Tees, Grangefield: 9 Labour hold with majority over Conservative ranging from 9% (David Boothroyd & Mark Senior) to 40% (Just Looking), casualobserver Conservative gain.

[Pete Whitehead]

Sept 1, 2016 0:14:46 GMT petewhitehead said:

Bournemouth UA - Kinson North

Con    33.4%
Lab     24.3%
UKIP  22.3%
LD      13.3%
Grn      6.7%


Cornwall UA - Four Lanes

Ind     23.2%
LD      21.6%
MK    15.8%
Con   14.3%
Lab    13.2%
UKIP  11.9%


Stockton UA - Grangefield

Lab    45.9%
Con   36.7%
UKIP  12.1%
LD       5.3%


Dorset CC - Ferndown

Con    48.7%
UKIP  27.8%
LD      14.8%
Lab      8.7%


East Dorset DC - Parley

Con    50.6%
UKIP  23.4%
LD      17.1%
Lab      8.9%

[finsobruce]

Well done casualobserver (on the Stockton prediction)

[middleenglander]

Bournemouth, Kinson North
Mark Senior 15.5 faults, Pete Whitehead 18.4, Robert Waller 18.5, David Boothroyd 20.7, hempie 21.5, Greenhert 22.5, finsobruce 24.5, Just Looking 27.2, Maxque 28.6, casualobserver 32.8

Cornwall, Four Lanes
hempie 27.9 faults, finsobruce 30.3, Robert Waller 31.9, Maxque 37.6, Pete Whitehead 29.7+10, casualobserver 30.3+10, Just Looking 45.2, Mark Senior 46.3, Greenhert 49.2, David Boothroyd 44.3+10

Dorset, Ferndown
Pete Whitehead 21.9 faults, Maxque 22.0, Robert Waller 26.9, casualobserver & David Boothroyd 32.9, hempie 39.5, finsobruce & Greenhert 40.9, Mark Senior 42.9, Just Looking 54.9

East Dorset, Parley
Maxque 14.5 faults, David Boothroyd 20.6, casualobserver & finsobruce 26.6, Pete Whitehead 28.6, Greenhert & Robert Waller 30.1, hempie 32.6, Mark Senior 34.6, Just Looking 66.6

Stockton-On-Tees, Grangefield
casualobserver 25.2 faults, Mark Senior 25.0+10, David Boothroyd 27.0+10. Pete Whitehead 27.6+10, Maxque 28.8+10, Greenhert 35.0+10, finsobruce 37.0+10, Robert Waller 39.0+10, hempie 43.0+10, Just Looking 71.0+10

and for the first week of September:

141.5 Maxque
146.2 Pete Whitehead

156.5 Robert Waller
157.9 casualobserver

165.5 David Boothroyd
169.3 finsobruce

174.3 Mark Senior
174.6 hempie

187.7 Greenhert
274.9 Just Looking

Objections please by 9.00 am Sunday

There are 4 by-elections next week.  Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am Thursday.

We are having a few days holiday next week.  So could the DRO please hold the fork fort until our return next Saturday evening.

[Deleted]

Barrow-in-Furness BC, Parkside Lab 50%, Con 35%, UKIP 15%
Maidstone BC, Shepway South Lab 35%, UKIP 30%, Con 20% , LD 12%, Ind 3%
Mansfield UA, Yeoman Hill Mansfield Ind Forum 35%, Lab 34%, UKIP 20%, Con 10%, Ind 1%
Sheffield MB, Mosborough LD 23%, Lab 22%, Con 20%, Green 18%, UKIP 17%

[Adrian]

Sept 2, 2016 14:52:14 GMT middleenglander said:

We are having a few days holiday next week.  So could the DRO please hold the fork until our return next Saturday evening.

Not seen that eggcorn before!

[marksenior]

Barrow Lab 41 Con 37 UKIP 22
Maidstone UKIP 32 Con 28 Lab 25 LD 10 Ind 5
Mansfield Lab 38 MIF 28 UKIP 14 Con 13 Ind 7
Sheffield Lab 43 LD 20 Con 17 UKIP 16 Green 4

[greenhert]

Barrow BC, Park Vale: Conservative 41, Labour 39, UKIP 20.
Maidstone BC, Shepway South: Con 35, Lab 32, UKIP 24, Liberal Democrats 7, Independent (Hicks) 2.
Mansfield DC, Yeoman Hill: Lab 36, Mansfield Independent Forum 32, UKIP 15, Con 12, Independent (Shields) 5.
Sheffield MBC, Mosborough: Lab 48, Lib Dem 18, Con 16, UKIP 14, Green 4.

[maxque]

Barrow BC, Park Vale: Lab 47, Con 41, UKIP 12.
Maidstone BC, Shepway South: UKIP 38.3, Con 28.8, Lab 22.8, LD 8.9, Ind 1.2.
Mansfield DC, Yeoman Hill: Ind 30.2, Lab 30.1, MIF 22.2, UKIP 11.1, Con 6.4
Sheffield MBC, Mosborough: Lab 43, UKIP 21, LD 18, Con 14, Grn 4.

[Robert Waller]

Barrow BC, Park Vale: Lab 43, Con 42, UKIP 15.
Maidstone BC, Shepway South: UKIP 31, Con 32, Lab 28, LD 6, Ind 3.
Mansfield DC, Yeoman Hill: Ind 24, Lab 30, MIF 26, UKIP 10, Con 10
Sheffield MBC, Mosborough: Lab 50, UKIP 18, LD 20, Con 10, Grn 2