Pretty Maps

[andrewteale]

Wakefield 2022. Changes based on 2018:

Lab gain from C
Horbury and South Ossett
Wrenthorpe and Outwood West

LD gain from Lab
Knottingley



Split wards are (not taking account of defections)
Ackworth, North Elmsall and Upton is 2Lab/1C and Labour are defending in 2023.
Airedale and Ferry Fryston is 2Lab/1Ind; Labour have gained the independent seat in a by-election and defend that gain in 2023.
Crofton, Ryhill and Walton is 2Lab/1C and Labour are defending in 2023.
Hemsworth is 2Lab/1Ind and the independent is up in 2023.
Horbury and South Ossett is 2Lab/1C and the Conservatives are defending in 2023.
Pontefract South is 2Lab/1C and Labour are defending in 2023.
Wakefield East is 2Lab/1C and Labour are defending in 2023.
Wrenthorpe and Outwood West is 2Lab/1C and Labour are defending in 2023.

[greenchristian]

May 9, 2022 17:11:30 GMT andrewteale said:

Wakefield 2022. Changes based on 2018:

Lab gain from C
Horbury and South Ossett
Wrenthorpe and Outwood West

LD gain from Lab
Knottingley

The LEAP front page still has 2022 as "by-elections only", when it should now read "in progress".

[andrewteale]

That's done, although not much progress will be made for a while on 2022 as I'm intending to finish 2019 first. There are 39 result sets from that year left after this and the next map are posted.

Breckland 2019. C 37 (-5) Lab 6 (+4) Ind 4 (+3) Grn 2 (+2) UKIP 0 (-4). Changes based on 2015:

C gain from UKIP
Thetford Castle (1)

Grn gain from C
Dereham Neatherd (1)
Saham Toney (1)

Ind gain from C
Attleborough Burgh and Haverscroft (1)
Lincoln (1)
Swaffham (1)

Lab gain from C
Thetford Priory (1)

Lab gain from UKIP
Thetford Boudica (1)
Thetford Burrell (1)
Thetford Priory (1)



Split wards in 2019 were:
Attleborough Burgh and Haverscroft: C/Ind
Dereham Neatherd: 1Grn/2C
Dereham Withburga: Lab/C
Lincoln: Ind/C
Saham Toney: Grn/C
Swaffham: 1Ind/2C
Thetford Boudica: C/Lab
Watton: 1Ind/2C

[andrewteale]

Middlesbrough 2019. Ind 23 (+14) Lab 20 (-13) C 3 (-1). Changes based on 2015:

C gain from Ind
Nunthorpe (1)

C gain from Lab
Coulby Newham (1)

Ind gain from C
Kader (1)
Marton West (2)

Ind gain from Lab
Acklam (1)
Ayresome (1)
Berwick Hills and Pallister (3)
Brambles and Thorntree (1)
Hemlington (1)
Kader (1)
Newport (1)
North Ormesby
Park (1)
Trimdon (1)



Split wards in 2019 were:
Acklam: Lab/Ind
Ayresome: Ind/Lab
Brambles and Thorntree: 1Ind/2Lab
Coulby Newham: 2Lab/1C
Hemlington: Ind/Lab
Longlands and Beechwood: 1Ind/2Lab
Newport: 2Lab/1Ind
Nunthorpe: Ind/C
Park: 2Lab/1Ind

[minionofmidas]

May 14, 2022 16:41:42 GMT andrewteale said:

Brambles and Thorntree

Best Ever Ward Name or Best Ward Name Ever? Can't decide.

[Pete Whitehead]

May 14, 2022 20:16:36 GMT minionofmidas said:

May 14, 2022 16:41:42 GMT andrewteale said:

Brambles and Thorntree

Best Ever Ward Name or Best Ward Name Ever? Can't decide.

It's a prickly question for sure

[finsobruce]

May 14, 2022 20:29:47 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

May 14, 2022 20:16:36 GMT minionofmidas said:

Best Ever Ward Name or Best Ward Name Ever? Can't decide.

It's a prickly question for sure

Let's not beat about the bush.

[bluelabour]

It should be Brambles Farm and Thorntree really. I’ve never heard it referred to as just “Brambles” by locals

[andrewteale]

May 14, 2022 20:29:47 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

May 14, 2022 20:16:36 GMT minionofmidas said:

Best Ever Ward Name or Best Ward Name Ever? Can't decide.

It's a prickly question for sure

Certainly not a pointless question.

[andrewteale]

East Hertfordshire 2019. C 40 (-10) LD 6 (+6) Grn 2 (+2) Lab 2 (+2). Changes based on 2015:

Grn gain from C
Hertford Bengeo (1)
Ware Trinity (1)

Lab gain from C
Hertford Sele (2)

LD gain from C
Bishop's Stortford All SS (3)
Bishop's Stortford Meads (1)
Stanstead Abbots
Watton-at-Stone



Split wards in 2019 were:
Bishop's Stortford Meads: LD/C
Hertford Bengeo: 2C/1Grn

Ware Trinity: Grn/C

I think East Hertfordshire is one of only two districts which is still using ward boundaries introduced in 1999, the other being Eden.

[pl]

May 15, 2022 18:10:57 GMT andrewteale said:

I think East Hertfordshire is one of only two districts which is still using ward boundaries introduced in 1999, the other being Eden.

Indeed. Second oldest boundaries in the country. And actually not too far out of alignment considering all the development in East Herts. Only Buntingford is really badly under-represented.

Of course, the 2023 elections will be on new boundaries. I suspect another review will be needed within 10-12 years due to massive house building in Gilston which kicks off in earnest just beyond the forecast period.

[minionofmidas]

May 15, 2022 18:19:15 GMT pl said:

May 15, 2022 18:10:57 GMT andrewteale said:

I think East Hertfordshire is one of only two districts which is still using ward boundaries introduced in 1999, the other being Eden.

Indeed. Second oldest boundaries in the country. And actually not too far out of alignment considering all the development in East Herts. Only Buntingford is really badly under-represented.

Of course, the 2023 elections will be on new boundaries. I suspect another review will be needed within 10-12 years due to massive house building in Gilston which kicks off in earnest just beyond the forecast period.

and Eden is abolished, so where will now have the "oldest" boundaries?

[andrewteale]

May 15, 2022 18:31:03 GMT minionofmidas said:

May 15, 2022 18:19:15 GMT pl said:

Indeed. Second oldest boundaries in the country. And actually not too far out of alignment considering all the development in East Herts. Only Buntingford is really badly under-represented.

Of course, the 2023 elections will be on new boundaries. I suspect another review will be needed within 10-12 years due to massive house building in Gilston which kicks off in earnest just beyond the forecast period.

and Eden is abolished, so where will now have the "oldest" boundaries?

Amber Valley, Mole Valley and Tandridge are still using ward boundaries introduced in 2000. The first two will probably get new ward boundaries next year, but Tandridge's wards are likely to continue until 2024 or later (the LBBCE website suggests 2025, but that's a county council year).

Southend-on-Sea is the only council with wards dating from 2001. The LGBCE appear to have no plans to review Southend in the near future.

The whole of Wales had its ward map redrawn this year, but Merthyr Tydfil's ward boundaries didn't actually change at all: two wards had a name change, and there was a reapportionment which saw four seats disappear. Those boundaries go back to the 1995 reorganisation if not earlier.

And if you want to touch the sui generis cases, the Isles of Scilly's ward map has never changed since the islands gained self-government in 1890.

[pl]

May 15, 2022 18:31:03 GMT minionofmidas said:

May 15, 2022 18:19:15 GMT pl said:

Indeed. Second oldest boundaries in the country. And actually not too far out of alignment considering all the development in East Herts. Only Buntingford is really badly under-represented.

Of course, the 2023 elections will be on new boundaries. I suspect another review will be needed within 10-12 years due to massive house building in Gilston which kicks off in earnest just beyond the forecast period.

and Eden is abolished, so where will now have the "oldest" boundaries?

The LGBCE file available here has all the answers (and much more)

www.lgbce.org.uk/resources/electoral-data

Eden along with a couple of the others listed below are still technically with us. Based on the LGBCE file, there are 18 councils left with a "date of last review" in the last century. All have reviews currently underway except for the bolded ones. Most of the authorities for which there isn't an active review is for an obvious reason. It looks like Spelthorne will take the crown soon:

Last review 1997
Eden

Last Review 1998
East Hertfordshire

Stevenage

Epsom and Ewell

Guildford

Mole Valley

Spelthorne

Tandridge

Waverley

Amber Valley

Chesterfield

Derbyshire Dales


Last Review 1999
Craven

Ryedale

Lambeth

Barking and Dagenham

North Warwickshire

Nuneaton and Bedworth

Southend-on-Sea

Somewhat surprisingly (ok unsurprisingly given LGBCE review criteria), between all of these authorities there are only 7 wards where the variance is over 30%

The authority with the most recent review for which a boundary review is in progress is Stratford-on-Avon, which has a last review date of 25/3/2014. However, 1 ward has a variance of over 30% and 38.9% of wards have a variance of over 10%. 

[andrewteale]

May 15, 2022 21:22:52 GMT pl said:

May 15, 2022 18:31:03 GMT minionofmidas said:

and Eden is abolished, so where will now have the "oldest" boundaries?

The LGBCE file available here has all the answers (and much more)

www.lgbce.org.uk/resources/electoral-data

Eden along with a couple of the others listed below are still technically with us. Based on the LGBCE file, there are 18 councils left with a "date of last review" in the last century. All have reviews currently underway except for the bolded ones. Most of the authorities for which there isn't an active review is for an obvious reason. It looks like Spelthorne will take the crown soon:

Last review 1997
Eden

Last Review 1998
East Hertfordshire

Stevenage

Epsom and Ewell

Guildford

Mole Valley

Spelthorne

Tandridge

Waverley

Amber Valley

Chesterfield

Derbyshire Dales


Last Review 1999
Craven

Ryedale

Lambeth

Barking and Dagenham

North Warwickshire

Nuneaton and Bedworth

Southend-on-Sea

Somewhat surprisingly (ok unsurprisingly given LGBCE review criteria), between all of these authorities there are only 7 wards where the variance is over 30%

The authority with the most recent review for which a boundary review is in progress is Stratford-on-Avon, which has a last review date of 25/3/2014. However, 1 ward has a variance of over 30% and 38.9% of wards have a variance of over 10%. 

All of those boundary changes were actually implemented at the 2002 or 2003 elections except for the councils I mentioned in my last post and Stevenage, which was implemented in 1999. I wasn't aware of that one, thank you.

[minionofmidas]

I do not want to touch the sui generis cases. That would be scilly.

[afleitch]

So the excellent Ballotbox Scotland has collated the polling district results for Glasgow. Most of the districts are still easily collapsable into the old 1999-2007 wards; the last to be fought on the old FTP.

So here are the results



You're probably thinking; 'help'

So here's a quick analysis. SNP support is across the city and elsewhere so wide that's it's hard to tie it to any set of indicators, but it does tend to be younger.

It's much easier to look at the 'not SNP' pattern of support.

Labour

For Labour it's very much tied to two factors; age and Tory-ness. Labour are dominant in the old middle class wards that used to vote Lib Dem and long before, Tory. You can see this in places like Kelvindale and Jordanhill. Here very strong Tory performances collapsed with most of the first preferences (which is what these tally) going to Labour. They are also strong in other older post-war peripheral middle class estates in places like Mount Vernon. They don't perform as strongly in places straddling the East Renfrewshire boundary (a council where the SNP made strong advances this year) in places like Newlands and Cathcart. More on that later.

Labour also have some strengths but also some weaknesses in many of the post-war overspill estates; Drumchapel, Easterhouse, Pollok (but not Castlemilk) where there is an aging population and period of both population decline and housing demolition.

A few other Labour successes are in the 'villages' of Robroyston and Carmunnock again for reasons above.

In terms of 'sectarianism' Labour perform well in known 'Orange' boltholes in the city; places like Bridgeton and Shettleston.

Also worth noting they won Kingston and Anderston which are the most Hindu parts of Glasgow.

Green

It's hard not to speak of the Greens without understanding the long standing 'osmosis' between SNP and Green voting in Glasgow. There are three pockets of Green support.

The first is the 'West End'; not the mansions further west, but around the University. This is the earliest base of Green support; Hillhead. But Green support there isn't just students; with successes in Hayburn and Kelvingrove (home of the 'talked about in the Sunday supplements' Finnieston area), Green support is young (ie under 40) and those who have created areas of city living.

The second smaller pocket is Dennistoun which has a similar profile.

In the green pocket in the south of the city (which is where I live) Green support is strong in wards surrounding Queen's Park, and in another sunday supplement favourite; Strathbungo, But support is also found in more established but...'socially conscious' wards like Langside and Battlefield.

In short, where you 'want to be', or 'you're supposed to be', votes Green.

Also, the Green vote correlates very strongly where areas of 'No Religion' scored high in the last published census.

SNP

Everyone else.

In all seriousness, the 'donut' around the Green wards in the south of the city is Sturgeonland which has overflowed much beyond where she represents. There is a very strong correlation with the Muslim vote with both the SNP and the Green successes across the city.

The area around Govan is still a good area for the SNP as is Maryhill and most of the East End. There's still a very curious correlation between parts that voted SNP this year and where they performed well in the 'high water' locals as far back as 1968 and 1977, with some sectarian switching.

Speaking of, the SNP still performing well in Catholic parts of the city relative to Labour; the East End, Maryhill, the strip from the Gorbals to Castlemilk near the South Lanarkshire boundary.

[casualobserver]

May 15, 2022 21:22:52 GMT pl said:

The authority with the most recent review for which a boundary review is in progress is Stratford-on-Avon, which has a last review date of 25/3/2014. However, 1 ward has a variance of over 30% and 38.9% of wards have a variance of over 10%. 

Stratford-on-Avon’s final recommendations were published on 1st March this year.

With Lancaster’s final recommendations published earlier this month, that leaves Telford & Wrekin followed by Fenland as the authorities with the most recent completed reviews for which a boundary review is currently in progress.

[jm]

Council control in England & Wales following the 1972 local elections.

Grey areas - Independent controlled/Non-political
Black areas - No overall control

[Pete Whitehead]

Exalt