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Post by finsobruce on Sept 28, 2021 14:56:51 GMT
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Post by peterm on Sept 28, 2021 15:02:22 GMT
Perhaps 150 potential targets for the next election on top of the seats already held? [boundary changes notwithstanding].
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Post by hullenedge on Sept 29, 2021 13:48:32 GMT
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Post by andrewteale on Sept 29, 2021 13:58:20 GMT
Horsham 2019. C 32 LD 13 Grn 2 Ind 1. New ward boundaries. Split wards in 2019 were: Bramber, Upper Beeding and Woodmancote: Grn/C Henfield: Ind/C Roffey South: C/LD Steyning and Ashurst: Grn/C
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 30, 2021 9:34:35 GMT
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Post by alexrichards on Sept 30, 2021 19:51:09 GMT
Hey everyone.
So bit of an emergency beacon going up- I've been using old-maps.co.uk to find boundaries when there aren't detailed maps on the LGBCE website, and they've just put up a banner indicating the service will close permanently at the end of October.
There's no indication whether the website is going to go down on that date, but in case it does, is anyone aware of anywhere else that I could view/find the 70s/80s/90s OS series?
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Post by hullenedge on Oct 2, 2021 11:19:58 GMT
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,531
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 2, 2021 11:29:20 GMT
Strikingly small numbers not declared by 6am - deliberate next day declarations seem to have almost passed into history now.
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Post by hullenedge on Oct 4, 2021 11:59:43 GMT
1961 map in the thread.
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peterl
Green
Monarchic Technocratic Localist
Posts: 8,047
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Post by peterl on Oct 4, 2021 18:52:30 GMT
Strikingly small numbers not declared by 6am - deliberate next day declarations seem to have almost passed into history now. Legislation was passed shortly before the 2010 election more or less prohibiting next day counts for parliamentary elections. Counts must start within four hours of the polls closing, unless there is a good reason to do otherwise.
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,757
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Oct 4, 2021 19:33:13 GMT
Strikingly small numbers not declared by 6am - deliberate next day declarations seem to have almost passed into history now. Legislation was passed shortly before the 2010 election more or less prohibiting next day counts for parliamentary elections. Counts must start within four hours of the polls closing, unless there is a good reason to do otherwise. How about Atlantic storms (as has been the case on many an occasion in the Western Isles, Orkney and Shetland and St. Ives)?
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Post by minionofmidas on Oct 4, 2021 19:45:34 GMT
Legislation was passed shortly before the 2010 election more or less prohibiting next day counts for parliamentary elections. Counts must start within four hours of the polls closing, unless there is a good reason to do otherwise. How about Atlantic storms (as has been the case on many an occasion in the Western Isles, Orkney and Shetland and St. Ives)? would certainly be a good reason if they impact the transportation of ballot boxes. St Ives 2019 counted during the daytime on friday for this reason.
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peterl
Green
Monarchic Technocratic Localist
Posts: 8,047
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Post by peterl on Oct 4, 2021 21:39:18 GMT
Legislation was passed shortly before the 2010 election more or less prohibiting next day counts for parliamentary elections. Counts must start within four hours of the polls closing, unless there is a good reason to do otherwise. How about Atlantic storms (as has been the case on many an occasion in the Western Isles, Orkney and Shetland and St. Ives)? I would think the presence of a storm would be a good reason. Just in case there is a storm, perhaps not so much. At any rate, there have been hardly any next day counts since the legislation, though I think Buckingham did one year.
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Post by hullenedge on Oct 5, 2021 9:04:20 GMT
Regression of the Labour vote in 2017:-
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Post by hullenedge on Oct 6, 2021 8:53:14 GMT
Regression of the Con vote in 2019:-
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Oct 6, 2021 9:32:43 GMT
Regression of the Con vote in 2019:- You'll have to help me out here – what is regression in this sense?
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WJ
Non-Aligned
Posts: 3,089
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Post by WJ on Oct 6, 2021 9:57:25 GMT
How about Atlantic storms (as has been the case on many an occasion in the Western Isles, Orkney and Shetland and St. Ives)? would certainly be a good reason if they impact the transportation of ballot boxes. St Ives 2019 counted during the daytime on friday for this reason. They used to count the next day so that the ballots from Scilly could get to the mainland via the Scillonian ferry. In 2019, they decided to count the Scilly votes on St Mary's to speed things up, unfortunately a storm there prevented the ballots from the different islands making it to St Mary's for counting, so it made no difference anyway. If they decided to keep doing this in the future, we might expect an earlier St Ives declaration than we've come to expect.
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Post by hullenedge on Oct 6, 2021 10:23:39 GMT
Regression of the Con vote in 2019:- You'll have to help me out here – what is regression in this sense? Simple linear regression for 2019 Con votes compared to 2017 votes. Calculated via spreadsheet rather than hand! Over/underperformance etc...and nothing that shocking. Broadly underperformance in the core (likely higher concentration of 'Tory remainers' abstaining/defecting) and overperformance in the periphery.
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Post by hullenedge on Oct 9, 2021 7:47:55 GMT
Rather crude map of Con+UKIP 2015 (percent) vs Con+BRX 2019:- A familiar picture.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Oct 12, 2021 8:45:34 GMT
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