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Post by nw12398 on Jun 17, 2021 12:27:45 GMT
The Basque result is the most interesting thing. I presume it is a dislike of the region as is it drawn that irks Basques the most? Something similar can be seen in Flanders too I think. I suspect it's because both the Basque Country and Flanders, as well as Catalonia, are in a situation where regionalism is heavily aligned with politics/separatism, and not everyone agrees with those politics/with separatism. Although I think Flanders is a bit different to the Basque Country and Catalonia in that separatism is only half genuine but regionalism is more heavily tied with political ideology - it is almost entirely the domain of the right, whereas whilst somewhat aligned with the left, Catalan/Basque separatism has support (and opposition) throughout the left-right spectrum.
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ilerda
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Post by ilerda on Jun 17, 2021 12:36:07 GMT
It's hard to believe the Lib Dems would abandon Lewes as well.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 17, 2021 12:37:30 GMT
It's hard to believe the Lib Dems would abandon Lewes as well. A more realistic version of the map removes the Green gains and has Lewes as a Lib Dem gain.
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Post by Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith on Jun 17, 2021 13:44:20 GMT
I actually reckon this makes sense, because obviously the Labour party who hold the equivalent Welsh assembly seat and have come close second or won the seat every time since it's creation are going to roll over and let the green party win the Vale of Glamorgan, and of course the people will vote green and not another party or just abstain based on labour's say so Take out the Green gains and this result seeems more plausible. I realise this is a psephological exercise but I can't take it that seriously because even if there was a pact, which there won't be, I can't see the Liberal Democrats standing aside for Labour in places like Sheffield Hallam.
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 17, 2021 14:25:52 GMT
Take out the Green gains and this result seeems more plausible. I realise this is a psephological exercise but I can't take it that seriously because even if there was a pact, which there won't be, I can't see the Liberal Democrats standing aside for Labour in places like Sheffield Hallam.Β There will only be a pact if Labour decide for PR. And it won't cover all seats, as it wouldn't need to. In some places Labour may need the LibDems to stay in the race.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 17, 2021 14:35:05 GMT
I actually reckon this makes sense, because obviously the Labour party who hold the equivalent Welsh assembly seat and have come close second or won the seat every time since it's creation are going to roll over and let the green party win the Vale of Glamorgan, and of course the people will vote green and not another party or just abstain based on labour's say so Take out the Green gains and this result seems more plausible. Some of those Labour gains are fairly imlpausible as well. In Rushcliffe for example there was a Conservative majority of over 7,600 and 9,600 Lib Dem votes. 80% of those Lib Dem votes would have to obediently switch to Labour to put them ahead without any of them choosing the Conservatives. If only 10% of those Lib Dem voters went Conservative, Labour would need the whole of the remaining 90% to put them ahead. It seems implausible to me that Lib Dem voters, even from 2019, would break by over 9 to 1 in Labour's favour over the Conservatives and they are not employees to be instructed how to vote. In fact this is so much bollocks I don't know why I'm over analysing it so much. Its just bollocks (though yes obviously the likes of South Cambridgeshire would probably have gone Lib Dem absent a Labour candidate but you don't need some fuckwitted poll to tell you that)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 17, 2021 15:08:01 GMT
Take out the Green gains and this result seems more plausible. Some of those Labour gains are fairly imlpausible as well. In Rushcliffe for example there was a Conservative majority of over 7,600 and 9,600 Lib Dem votes. 80% of those Lib Dem votes would have to obediently switch to Labour to put them ahead without any of them choosing the Conservatives. If only 10% of those Lib Dem voters went Conservative, Labour would need the whole of the remaining 90% to put them ahead. It seems implausible to me that Lib Dem voters, even from 2019, would break by over 9 to 1 in Labour's favour over the Conservatives and they are not employees to be instructed how to vote. In fact this is so much bollocks I don't know why I'm over analysing it so much. Its just bollocks (though yes obviously the likes of South Cambridgeshire would probably have gone Lib Dem absent a Labour candidate but you don't need some fuckwitted poll to tell you that) Point taken. The poll serves as a tactical voting guide at best.
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Post by bjornhattan on Jun 17, 2021 15:29:31 GMT
Some of those Labour gains are fairly imlpausible as well. In Rushcliffe for example there was a Conservative majority of over 7,600 and 9,600 Lib Dem votes. 80% of those Lib Dem votes would have to obediently switch to Labour to put them ahead without any of them choosing the Conservatives. If only 10% of those Lib Dem voters went Conservative, Labour would need the whole of the remaining 90% to put them ahead. It seems implausible to me that Lib Dem voters, even from 2019, would break by over 9 to 1 in Labour's favour over the Conservatives and they are not employees to be instructed how to vote. In fact this is so much bollocks I don't know why I'm over analysing it so much. Its just bollocks (though yes obviously the likes of South Cambridgeshire would probably have gone Lib Dem absent a Labour candidate but you don't need some fuckwitted poll to tell you that) Point taken. The poll serves as a tactical voting guide at best. I'm sure the Stroud Conservatives would be very happy if local residents used it as a tactical voting guide.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 17, 2021 15:41:43 GMT
Point taken. The poll serves as a tactical voting guide at best. I'm sure the Stroud Conservatives would be very happy if local residents used it as a tactical voting guide. π
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Post by minionofmidas on Jun 17, 2021 15:43:38 GMT
I mean, they ran a big poll on who'd you vote for, Con, pact or other, if there was such a pact. Cons apparently came out just ahead (the most important find arguably!), within hung parliament territory. They then used a model to determine which seats the pact would win and also had some fun determining some rules on which 6% of con-held seats might be left to the Greens. The rest of the pact-won constituencies they just gave to whoever of Lab and LDs polled higher in 2019. (Wouldn't the LDs also ask for extra seats if the Greens got them?) There are obviously too many steps at which something can go awry here to consider the map as much more than a bit of innocent fun.
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European Lefty
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Can be bribed with salted liquorice
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Post by European Lefty on Jun 17, 2021 15:55:33 GMT
One of the most fundamental problems with these progressive alliance plans is the insistence on finding another seat for the Greens and looking for it based on areas where they have a few councillors or places where they occasionally a slightly better than pathetic result at a GE. Obviously you have to give them something but there just isn't any seat they can realistically win so people suggest moronic things like giving them Stroud or hoping they win Reigate
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 17, 2021 20:32:01 GMT
One of the most fundamental problems with these progressive alliance plans is the insistence on finding another seat for the Greens and looking for it based on areas where they have a few councillors or places where they occasionally a slightly better than pathetic result at a GE. Obviously you have to give them something but there just isn't any seat they can realistically win so people suggest moronic things like giving them Stroud or hoping they win Reigate They should just identify the seats for which greenhert has written a profile in the Almanac.. oh same thing
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 17, 2021 21:28:16 GMT
The real problem with the map is it suggests Labour will win Rushcliffe before they win a seat like Reading West!
Maybe it's all just a projection of how much I'd like to have Supplementary Vote
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Post by andrewteale on Jun 17, 2021 21:53:45 GMT
Devon 2021. C 39 (-3) LD 9 (+2) Lab 7 Ind 3 (+1) Grn 2 (+1) Independent East Devon Alliance 0 (-1). Changes based on 2017: C gain from Ind East Devon Alliance Seaton and Colyton C gain from LD Newton Abbot North Grn gain from C Broadclyst (1) Ind gain from LD Newton Abbot South LD gain from C Barnstaple South Dawlish South Brent and Yealpton Teignmouth Split divisions in May were: Broadclyst: Grn/C
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Post by hullenedge on Jun 17, 2021 22:00:16 GMT
Absolute victories 1955-70 (brown = mixed winners):-
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Post by greenhert on Jun 17, 2021 23:31:13 GMT
The real problem with the map is it suggests Labour will win Rushcliffe before they win a seat like Reading West! Maybe it's all just a projection of how much I'd like to have Supplementary Vote Did the people creating the map not check the actual majorities and general nature of those seats first? Reading West is much more urban than Rushcliffe and has a lower Conservative majority!
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Post by hullenedge on Jun 18, 2021 15:22:20 GMT
51 years since Ted's triumph. Highest Tory votes polled 1955-70:- 55 - lilac - 169 seats 59 - light blue - 223 seats 64 - light red - 10 seats 66 - red - one seat 70- blue - 215 seats
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ilerda
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Post by ilerda on Jun 18, 2021 17:18:33 GMT
Itβs not the point here, but I do often feel the old approach of generally using whole urban and rural districts to form constituencies led to a much nicer looking map.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 19, 2021 15:38:22 GMT
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 19, 2021 17:59:39 GMT
Places where a fanatical Tory supporter who refused to live anywhere where there was not Conservative rule at every level: parliamentary, county and district or borough, could live* *Conservative MP, all Conservative councillors representing ward/division, Conservative PCC, Conservative controlled district and county councils or Unitary authority Part 1. East of England
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