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Post by Andrew_S on Dec 3, 2020 16:28:46 GMT
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Dec 3, 2020 17:37:54 GMT
Still a fair few errors - I’m pretty sure Uxbridge and Chelsea & Fulham would have been Labour in ‘97. Not sure about Basingstoke. As Pete said, Weston Super Mare and Newbury have had LDs. Labour would never have won the current Newark, and I very much doubt Mid Derbyshire too.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 3, 2020 18:06:34 GMT
Still a fair few errors - I’m pretty sure Uxbridge and Chelsea & Fulham would have been Labour in ‘97. Not sure about Basingstoke. As Pete said, Weston Super Mare and Newbury have had LDs. Labour would never have won the current Newark, and I very much doubt Mid Derbyshire too. I think it is what was rather than what might have been (otherwise Braintree would not have been Labour in 1997). In any case I very much doubt Chelsea & Fulham would have been Labour. Labour's majority in Hammersmith & Fulham was less than 4k and if you take out Hammersmith itself and the northern (somewhat more Labour) section of Fulham and replace it with Chelsea, that would be a clear Tory lead
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ilerda
Conservative
Posts: 1,023
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Post by ilerda on Dec 3, 2020 18:08:30 GMT
Also, personally I would have ignored the Speaker, and classed Buckingham as Conservative and Chorley as Labour. But I can understand why you didn't do so (the latter particularly, since if Hoyle hadn't ran as Speaker the result would have been in doubt). I was very tempted to. But for the sake of certainty and not wanting to speculate I kept them as Speaker. Chorley was definitely the defining factor in that because it's not certain which way it would have gone in a normal election (narrow Tory gain most likely against a well-respected incumbent in a seat that would otherwise have been a convincing gain).
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ilerda
Conservative
Posts: 1,023
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Post by ilerda on Dec 3, 2020 18:10:29 GMT
And it's important to remember that just adding up the votes based on different boundaries can be very inaccurate in terms of predicting a notional winner. A lot comes down to the dynamics, or perceived dynamics, of a particular constituency and who is seen as likely to have a chance of winning.
There are many areas that would definitely vote differently if they thought a different set of candidates had a chance of victory.
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Post by Dalek Prime on Dec 3, 2020 18:14:20 GMT
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Post by johnloony on Dec 3, 2020 19:46:14 GMT
How does Independent win Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath?
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Dec 3, 2020 19:56:18 GMT
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Post by manchesterman on Dec 3, 2020 20:59:01 GMT
So, by the time of the next election in 2024, it will have meant that in the last 27 years, approximately half of the constituencies [and therefore half of the electorate] have a totally meaningless vote - no chance of their vote ever making a difference to the governance of the nation!
...yet more evidence for ditching FPTP!!
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Post by johnloony on Dec 3, 2020 21:41:05 GMT
So, by the time of the next election in 2024, it will have meant that in the last 27 years, approximately half of the constituencies [and therefore half of the electorate] have a totally meaningless vote - no chance of their vote ever making a difference to the governance of the nation!
...yet more evidence for ditching FPTP!!
Strange definition of the word "meaningless"
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Post by manchesterman on Dec 3, 2020 22:06:25 GMT
Point taken "meaningless" = has no meaning
I will change to "purposeless" = has no purpose..(ie may as well not bother)
Every vote should count - under FPTP basically about 10 million votes count ..and that's being generous!
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Post by greenchristian on Dec 3, 2020 22:26:47 GMT
And it's important to remember that just adding up the votes based on different boundaries can be very inaccurate in terms of predicting a notional winner. A lot comes down to the dynamics, or perceived dynamics, of a particular constituency and who is seen as likely to have a chance of winning. There are many areas that would definitely vote differently if they thought a different set of candidates had a chance of victory. Indeed. But estimating those factors is incredibly subjective, and it's really difficult to do well. Which is why notional results almost always underestimate parties like the Lib Dems, where those perceived local dynamics play a much larger part.
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Long may it rain
Posts: 5,506
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Post by Foggy on Dec 3, 2020 22:44:18 GMT
Also Newbury, Weston Super Mare.. Still a fair few errors - I’m pretty sure Uxbridge and Chelsea & Fulham would have been Labour in ‘97. Not sure about Basingstoke. As Pete said, Weston Super Mare and Newbury have had LDs. Labour would never have won the current Newark, and I very much doubt Mid Derbyshire too. There is no such constituency, or place, as "Weston Super Mare". The seat you are referring to is called Weston-super-Mare, as is the town after which it is named.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Dec 3, 2020 23:05:03 GMT
Also Newbury, Weston Super Mare.. Still a fair few errors - I’m pretty sure Uxbridge and Chelsea & Fulham would have been Labour in ‘97. Not sure about Basingstoke. As Pete said, Weston Super Mare and Newbury have had LDs. Labour would never have won the current Newark, and I very much doubt Mid Derbyshire too. There is no such constituency, or place, as "Weston Super Mare". The seat you are referring to is called Weston-super-Mare, as is the town after which it is named. By that logic, there is no seat called Newcastle North, no Stoke seats and no Hull seats either.
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Long may it rain
Posts: 5,506
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Post by Foggy on Dec 3, 2020 23:10:17 GMT
There is no such constituency, or place, as "Weston Super Mare". The seat you are referring to is called Weston-super-Mare, as is the town after which it is named. By that logic, there is no seat called Newcastle North, no Stoke seats and no Hull seats either. Look closely. It's not just about the hyphens. There is no capital letter on 'super'.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Dec 3, 2020 23:20:52 GMT
By that logic, there is no seat called Newcastle North, no Stoke seats and no Hull seats either. Look closely. It's not just about the hyphens. There is no capital letter on 'super'. There really ought to be (it's a fun place), especially when the 'Great' in Great Grimsby is capitalised. Not that I'm being completely serious at this hour.
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Post by kevinlarkin on Dec 3, 2020 23:51:12 GMT
I don't think this map is "really cool", it is a bit shit really. My main objection is that this 2-d representation of a 3-d map hides almost much as it reveals. We have no idea what is happening in outer North London or much of the northern Home Counties as it is obscured by the large spikes in Inner London. Their population densities may be similar but slightly lower, or they may all be desolate wastelands (or maybe that is just Hatfield). To make these 3-d maps work you need an interactive visualisation that allows you to tilt and rotate the map. This is still difficult to do in an online context. Also, the colour scheme is appalling. And it is just a population density map which doesn't really tell us anything we didn't know already.
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Post by johnloony on Dec 4, 2020 0:00:10 GMT
Point taken "meaningless" = has no meaning I will change to "purposeless" = has no purpose..(ie may as well not bother) Every vote should count - under FPTP basically about 10 million votes count ..and that's being generous! Strange definition of "count"
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Post by manchesterman on Dec 4, 2020 0:49:01 GMT
OK - every vote should be "purposeful"
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Dec 4, 2020 8:37:33 GMT
2010 - CON plus UKIP www.yapms.com/app/?m=5fcvCompared to 2010, the Tories win Bolton West; Derby North; Dudley North; Great Grimsby; Hampstead & Kilburn; Mid Dorset & North Poole; Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland; Morley & Outwood; Newcastle-under-Lyme; North East Derbyshire; Plymouth, Moor View; Somerton & Frome; Southampton, Itchen; St Austell & Newquay; St Ives; Telford; Walsall North; Walsall South; Wells; and Wirral South. Cameron wins a majority, Ed Balls loses Morley & Outwood and Annunziata Rees-Mogg wins Somerton & Frome.
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