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Post by andrewteale on Jul 12, 2020 15:51:45 GMT
Amber Valley 2019. Changes based on 2015: Grn gain from C Duffield Lab gain from C Belper Central Belper East Belper North Belper South Heage and Ambergate Split wards are (not taking account of by-elections or defections): Duffield is C/Grn and is not up in 2021. Heage and Ambergate is C/Lab and the Conservatives are defending in 2021. Heanor East is C/Lab and Labour are defending in 2021. Heanor West is C/Lab and Labour are defending in 2021. Ironville and Riddings is C/Lab and the Conservatives are defending in 2021. Ripley is 2C/1Lab and Labour are defending in 2021. Ripley and Marehay is C/Lab and Labour are defending in 2021.
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Post by froome on Jul 13, 2020 7:43:49 GMT
Ipswich 2019. Changes based on 2015: Lab gain from C Rushmere Whitton LD gain from C St Margaret's Split wards are (not taking account of by-elections or defections): Holywells is 2Lab/1C and Labour are defending in 2021. Stoke Park is 2C/1Lab and Labour are defending in 2021. I don't know Ipswich at all, but that is a notably displaced pattern of representation by the Conservatives. Normally, when there is a majority party and a significant minority one, the minority party's representation tends to be in one part of the town rather than dotted around like this, usually due to the demographics of the place reflecting that. Are Ipswich's demographics and historical development very different to most similarly sized places?
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 13, 2020 10:11:24 GMT
It is maybe also noticeable that Ipswich has few mega-safe wards for any party, this could help explain the above as it implies a relatively homogeneous town overall?
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Post by minionofmidas on Jul 13, 2020 13:16:22 GMT
Ipswich 2019. Changes based on 2015: Lab gain from C Rushmere Whitton LD gain from C St Margaret's Split wards are (not taking account of by-elections or defections): Holywells is 2Lab/1C and Labour are defending in 2021. Stoke Park is 2C/1Lab and Labour are defending in 2021. I don't know Ipswich at all, but that is a notably displaced pattern of representation by the Conservatives. Normally, when there is a majority party and a significant minority one, the minority party's representation tends to be in one part of the town rather than dotted around like this, usually due to the demographics of the place reflecting that. Are Ipswich's demographics and historical development very different to most similarly sized places? But note where the Con losses are - 2015 looked much more like you were expecting. Then note where the split wards are...
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Post by andrewteale on Jul 18, 2020 14:10:27 GMT
Sheffield 2019. Changes based on 2016 when the current ward boundaries were introduced: Grn gain from Lab Gleadless Valley Nether Edge and Sharrow Lab gain from UKIP Stocksbridge and Upper Don LD gain from Lab Beighton East Ecclesfield Mosborough LD gain from UKIP West Ecclesfield Split wards are (not taking account of by-elections or defections): Beighton is 2Lab/1LD and Labour are defending in 2021. Broomhill and Sharrow Vale is 2Grn/1Lab and Labour are defending in 2021. Crookes and Crosspool is 2LD/1Lab and Labour are defending in 2021. East Ecclesfield is 2Lab/1LD and Labour are defending in 2021. Gleadless Valley is 2Lab/1Grn and Labour are defending in 2021. Mosborough is 2LD/1Lab and Labour are defending in 2021. Nether Edge and Sharrow is 2Grn/1Lab and Labour are defending in 2021. Stocksbridge and Upper Don is 2Lab/1UKIP and UKIP are defending in 2021. West Ecclesfield is 2LD/1Lab and Labour are defending in 2021.
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Post by andrewteale on Jul 18, 2020 23:05:48 GMT
Bradford 2019. Changes based on 2015: Lab gain from LD Bolton and Undercliffe Split wards are (not taking account of by-elections or defections): Bolton and Undercliffe is 2Lab/1LD and the Liberal Democrats are defending in 2021; however (a) the councillor up for election in 2021 is David Ward, and (b) one of the Labour seats has gone Lib Dem in a by-election. Bradford Moor is 2Lab/1LD and the Liberal Democrats are defending in 2021.
Craven is 2C/1Ind and the independent is up in 2021. Ilkley is 2C/1Ind and the independent is up in 2021. Keighley Central is C/Ind/Lab and the independent is up in 2021. Little Horton is 2Lab/1Ind and the independent is up in 2021. Queensbury is 2C/1Ind and the independent is up in 2021. Shipley is 2Grn/1Lab and the Greens are defending in 2021.
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Post by andrewteale on Jul 19, 2020 13:16:09 GMT
Liverpool 2019. Changes based on 2015: LD gain from Lab Childwall Woolton Lib gain from Lab Tuebrook and Stoneycroft Split wards are (not taking account of by-elections or defections): Allerton and Hunts Cross is 2Lab/1LD and the Liberal Democrats are defending in 2021. Childwall is 2LD/1Lab and Labour are defending in 2021. Greenbank is 2Lab/1Grn and Labour are defending in 2021.
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Post by andrewteale on Jul 23, 2020 23:13:33 GMT
Some of you may have noticed a slight downtime in LEAP for a few minutes on Thursday evening. That, it turns out, was my web host upgrading the database software used on the LEAP server; and that update has broken all sorts of things behind the scenes. Putting this update together has been a very frustrating few hours. Anyway: Kirklees 2019. Changes based on 2015: Heavy Woollen District Ind gain from Lab Dewsbury East Lab gain from C Colne Valley Holme Valley South LD gain from C Lindley LD gain from Lab Almondbury Golcar Split wards are (not taking account of by-elections or defections): Almondbury is 2LD/1C and the Conservatives are defending in 2021. Colne Valley is 3Lab, however the Conservatives have gained a seat in a by-election and will defend that gain in 2022. Denby Dale is 2C/1Lab and Labour are defending in 2021; Labour have also gained one of the Conservative seats in a by-election and will defend that gain in 2022. Dewsbury East is 2Lab/1HWDI and Labour are defending in 2021. Golcar is 2LD/1Lab and the Liberal Democrats are defending in 2021. Holme Valley South is 2C/1Lab and the Conservatives are defending in 2021. That completes West Yorkshire on LEAP for 2018 and 2019.
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European Lefty
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Post by European Lefty on Jul 23, 2020 23:39:46 GMT
Heavy Woollen District Ind gain from Lab Dewsbury East What on earth is that when it's at home?
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Jul 24, 2020 0:00:14 GMT
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Post by andrewteale on Jul 25, 2020 16:32:11 GMT
Enfield 2018. Lab 46 (+5) C 17 (-5). Changes based on 2014: C gain from Lab Bush Hill Park (1) Lab gain from C Chase (2) Southgate (2) Southgate Green (1) Winchmore Hill (1) Split wards in 2018 were: Southgate: 2Lab/1C Winchmore Hill: 2Lab/1C
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Post by andrewteale on Jul 27, 2020 21:51:16 GMT
Sefton 2019. Changes based on 2015: Formby Residents Action Group gain from C Harington Formby Residents Action Group gain from Lab Ravenmeols Lab gain from LD Kew Norwood LD gain from C Cambridge Duke's (confirming a by-election gain) Split wards are (not taking account of by-elections or defections): Ainsdale is 2C/1LD and the Liberal Democrats are defending in 2021. Cambridge is 2LD/1C and the Liberal Democrats are defending in 2021. Duke's is 2LD/1C and the Liberal Democrats are defending in 2021. Harington is 2C/1FRAG and the Conservatives are defending in 2021. Kew is 2Lab/1LD and the Liberal Democrats are defending in 2021. Norwood is 2Lab/1LD; the remaining Lib Dem councillor defected to Labour, then resigned and Labour confirmed their defection gain in a by-election. Labour will defend that by-election gain in 2021. Park is 2Lab/1Ind and the independent is up in 2021. Ravenmeols is 2FRAG/1Lab and FRAG are defending in 2021. Sudell is 2Lab/1Ind and the independent is up in 2021. The next update may take a little while as I'll have to draw a new base map - a rather frustrating situation, you might say.
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Post by andrewteale on Jul 29, 2020 22:50:53 GMT
Crawley 2019. Lab 19 C 17. New ward boundaries. Note that the Conservatives carried the popular vote across the borough (by sixteen votes, 11087 to 11071). Split wards are (not taking account of by-elections or defections): Gossops Green and North East Broadfield is C/Lab and the Conservatives are defending in 2021.
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Jul 29, 2020 23:18:10 GMT
That looks like the Hamish from episode 5 of "Bagpuss"
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 29, 2020 23:26:26 GMT
That reminds me of the Hamish from episode 5 of "Bagpuss".
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 29, 2020 23:30:34 GMT
No, it's clearly Elmer the Elephant It reminds me of the porcupine pin cushion from episode 5 of "Bagpuss"
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Post by John Chanin on Jul 30, 2020 14:44:28 GMT
Very unusual for the Conservative side of town to be on the east.
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European Lefty
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Post by European Lefty on Jul 30, 2020 14:56:39 GMT
Very unusual for the Conservative side of town to be on the east. Bedford is another example, although it doesn't show up on local election maps because the Conservative side is largely LibDem in local elections. Brighton sort of does it as well although it's more of an outer-inner divide, Gloucester is similar where the strongest Tory wards are on the eastern border but again it's more that Labour are stronger in the town centre and the Tories on the outside. There's a trace of it in Exeter as well but it's so Labour dominated it doesn't really show up. I guess in Crawley it's partly because some of those bits in the east are like a separate town divided by the railway line that got absorbed.
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Adrian
Co-operative Party
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Post by Adrian on Jul 30, 2020 16:37:35 GMT
I guess in Crawley it's partly because some of those bits in the east are like a separate town divided by the railway line that got absorbed. I hadn't realised that the town (and East/West Sussex) boundary wasn't moved east to include Pound Hill till 1953.
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Khunanup
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Post by Khunanup on Jul 30, 2020 16:47:54 GMT
Very unusual for the Conservative side of town to be on the east. Bedford is another example, although it doesn't show up on local election maps because the Conservative side is largely LibDem in local elections. Brighton sort of does it as well although it's more of an outer-inner divide, Gloucester is similar where the strongest Tory wards are on the eastern border but again it's more that Labour are stronger in the town centre and the Tories on the outside. There's a trace of it in Exeter as well but it's so Labour dominated it doesn't really show up. I guess in Crawley it's partly because some of those bits in the east are like a separate town divided by the railway line that got absorbed. I think Crawley is because it's effectively a new town so the reason why the wealthier bits are down wind was never relevant because it grew up post highly polluting industry. NB, Portsmouth's wealthier areas are in the east too (as well as on the seafront obviously), with the west being much more deprived. That's partly because of where the Naval Base is (and thus where the industry was) which is an immovable point and that the west of the city (because of the base, which used to include facilities right up the west side of Portsea Island, even more so than now) was very heavily bombed so that was where the council estates were build post war (alongside the old racecourse site in Paulsgrove on the mainland).
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