john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,785 
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Post by john07 on Mar 27, 2016 15:15:04 GMT
1980 is a better example than 1988 there. 1980 was complicated by the strong third party candidacy of John Anderson. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,916
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 27, 2016 16:51:12 GMT
Though he ultimately only polled about as well as Perot in 1996 (rather than '92)
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,028
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Post by Sibboleth on Mar 28, 2016 11:18:15 GMT
Definitely Attlee (born in Putney) and Eden (born in Durham). Eden's election address when he stood in Spennymoor in 1922 proudly mentioned that he had the backing of several prominent coal owners, which may have been somewhat tin-eared. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,028
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Post by Sibboleth on Mar 28, 2016 11:23:33 GMT
Anyway, Labour have never won the seat Lossiemouth is in and won no seats in Portsmouth in 1979. Extend this to party leaders (its no less meaningless doing this is it) and there were also none in Plymouth in 1983. Gaitskell was born in Kensington, but no idea on which side of the constituency line as it was in 1959.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 28, 2016 12:06:26 GMT
Anyway, Labour have never won the seat Lossiemouth is in and won no seats in Portsmouth in 1979. Extend this to party leaders (its no less meaningless doing this is it) and there were also none in Plymouth in 1983. Gaitskell was born in Kensington, but no idea on which side of the constituency line as it was in 1959. He was born at 3 Airlie Gardens, which was in Kensington South division. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,028
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Post by Sibboleth on Mar 28, 2016 12:13:51 GMT
I knew you'd know!
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,785
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Post by john07 on May 8, 2016 0:00:00 GMT
Getting back on topic.
I don't see a 50 state sweep. Trump will win West Virginia!
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Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 19,052
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Post by Richard Allen on May 8, 2016 12:18:26 GMT
Getting back on topic. I don't see a 50 state sweep. Trump will win West Virginia! I think he is pretty safe in Alabama. |
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sol
Non-Aligned
Posts: 19
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Post by sol on May 20, 2016 6:05:51 GMT
American politics these days are too polarized for a fifty-state sweep, even with Trump, whose floor state-wise probably sits somewhere around Dole (in terms of number of states, not the same states obviously). Trump is an astonishingly poor fit for Utah which is why he's been polling so poorly--he's not very religious and he's seen as too brash.
I imagine the maximum Democratic scenario in 2016 to be Obama '08+Arizona, Georgia, Alaska, Missouri, Montana, and the Dakotas, although Trump'll do better than that.
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,785
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Post by john07 on May 22, 2016 23:08:23 GMT
American politics these days are too polarized for a fifty-state sweep, even with Trump, whose floor state-wise probably sits somewhere around Dole (in terms of number of states, not the same states obviously). Trump is an astonishingly poor fit for Utah which is why he's been polling so poorly--he's not very religious and he's seen as too brash. I imagine the maximum Democratic scenario in 2016 to be Obama '08+Arizona, Georgia, Alaska, Missouri, Montana, and the Dakotas, although Trump'll do better than that. For anything like scenario to happen it would require a real breakthrough by the Libertarian Party eating deeply into the conservative Republican vote and I just don't see it. Trump will probably lose a lot of votes for the Republicans but most in States where they can well afford to lose them I could envisage Obama '08 plus Arizona and possibly Georgia. However Indiana and possibly Ohio could be vulnerable for the Democrats. |
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Post by therealriga on May 30, 2016 13:41:54 GMT
A poll taken recently in Utah, the state which was the most Republican of all in the 2012 election, showed Trump registering below both Clinton and Sanders. Do you think there is any possibility of any candidate carrying every single state this November? As we know, this was something Reagan very nearly achieved in 1984, despite receiving fewer than 60% of the popular vote. Unlikely. Reagan had the 1984 election in the bag long before and was heavily criticised after the event for spending the end of his campaign in Minnesota, vainly campaigning for a clean sweep rather than campaigning to help Republicans in tight congressional races, especially in the Senate, where the Dems gained seats. I expect if Hilary was home and dry in the last week of the campaign, she'd be encouraged to share the love by spending time in states or congressional districts which are more marginal at a Congress level. |
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