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Post by timrollpickering on Mar 20, 2016 21:55:37 GMT
In the 90s there was a proposal by the commission to match Armagh with Dungannon but it was strongly opposed. ISTR the idea came up again in the 2000s review - Newry & Mourne council were heavily opposed to splitting Newry between constituencies and so counter-proposed sending parts of Armagh that way. This didn't get very far, not least because the review hearings hadn't included the Fermanagh & Tyrone seats but what responses did come were pretty hostile. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 20, 2016 22:28:53 GMT
Armagh and Portadown do have ties though so it isn't ridiculous to pair them or form a triangle 'blackwater' constituency with Dungannon too. In the 90s there was a proposal by the commission to match Armagh with Dungannon but it was strongly opposed. Splitting down the middle of Craigavon though is ironic considering the history of the area. You can pack West Belfast more effectively by taking in territory north, though either Shankill ward or City Central has to be 'sacrificed' in with West Belfast.  That's brilliant. The way you've gerrymandered North Belfast reminds me of that Hispanic district in Chicago |
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nitory
Conservative
Posts: 941 
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Post by nitory on Mar 20, 2016 23:04:46 GMT
The old ward boundaries were even better for such mischief, Falls and New Lodge having a touch point connection. Then all that's needed is to split Ladybrook and Cliftonville wards cause of.... reasons. EDIT: Did a nationalist / anti-unionist gerrymander of Belfast for fun:
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Mar 21, 2016 9:04:35 GMT
I'm afraid I see no value whatsoever in putting a seat over the Glenshane Pass when it isn't necessary. I really have to disagree that a Strabane-Limavady-Magherafelt seat is "not an atrocity". Try driving the connecting roads in the dark and you'll see what I mean.
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nitory
Conservative
Posts: 941
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Post by nitory on Mar 21, 2016 13:10:23 GMT
If I found myself in Strabane, I'd view any roads out with rose tinted glasses.  But yes, I can't imagine West Tyrone being abolished in the review, Strabane has nowhere to go except Omagh. Strabane-Limavady-Maghera was to avoid a Mid Ulster which stretched to Limavady. This looks like the best fit for the west, with Mid Ulster gaining 4 South Derry wards.  |
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Post by longmonty on Apr 2, 2016 6:48:04 GMT
Sooner or later the reduction in Belfast is going to have to be addressed.
Relatively little change elsewhere. 
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Post by AustralianSwingVoter on Jun 22, 2016 9:14:40 GMT
Northern Ireland North Belfast 70215 South Belfast 70266 East Belfast 72001 North Down 74317 East Down 78177 South Down 76018 Central Down 76520 East Down 72329 Armagh 75635 Fermanagh & South Tyrone 71038 East Tyrone 71501 West Tyrone 70686 Derry 71814 East Londonderry 73592 North Antrim 73455 East Antrim 73095 South Antrim 72710  North Belfast 70215 South Belfast 70266 East Belfast 72001 North Down 77395 East Down 76057 Central Down 76961 West Down 76425 South Down 77330 Armagh 74715 Fermanagh & South Tyrone 70568 East Tyrone 72278 West Tyrone 70686 Derry 71814 East Londonderry 70994 North Antrim 70446 East Antrim 70891 South Antrim 74327  North Belfast 70215 South Belfast 70266 East Belfast 72001 North Down 77395 East Down 76057 Central Down 76961 West Down 76425 South Down 77330 Armagh 74715 Fermanagh & Strabane 70573 East Tyrone 71501 Central Tyrone 71142 Derry 71398 East Londonderry 71726 North Antrim 70446 East Antrim 70891 South Antrim 74327  North Belfast 70215 South Belfast 70266 East Belfast 72001 North Down 77395 East Down 76400 Central Down 77572 West Down 76927 South Down 78296 Armagh 75969 Fermanagh & South Tyrone 69451 East Tyrone 69719 West Tyrone 70686 Derry 71814 East Londonderry 70994 North Antrim 70446 East Antrim 70891 South Antrim 74327 
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Post by AustralianSwingVoter on Jun 23, 2016 3:43:42 GMT
Why won't anyone remember that Northern Ireland exists?
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Post by islington on Jun 29, 2016 18:19:59 GMT
ASV, I have not forgotten NI. Let me wrap up my circuit of the UK.   NI-A (Belfast): 212482 = 2.84 = 3I'm definitely lining up with the 3-seat Belfast school of thought; in fact, so far from needing four seats, Belfast is enabled to receive three whole seats only because of the lower minimum prevailing in Northern Ireland. BELFAST EAST - 72001 BELFAST NORTH - 70215 BELFAST SOUTH - 70266 NI-B (rest of NI): 1030887 = 13.79 = 14The LAs are rather small. I tried to avoid 3-area seats, but in the end, I had to allow one to get a sensible map. ANTRIM - 71885 (the 3-area seat) BALLYMENA AND LARNE - 73284 COLERAINE - 74067 CRAIGAVON - 76913 DERRY - 74132. I know it will end up being called 'Foyle' but I dislike river names. Everyone - from both communities - used to call it 'Derry'; it's only in recent decades that the name has got politicized. To my mind, making a big issue of calling it 'Londonderry' is like insisting on 'Kingston upon Hull' instead of just 'Hull' (and I note that the Hull seats are called just that). NORTH DOWN - 76443 SOUTH DOWN - 75605 FERMANAGH AND DUNGANNON - 71038 LISBURN - 75146 NEWRY AND ARMAGH - 74926 NEWTOWNABBEY - 71298 OMAGH AND STRABANE - 70686. This is also below the usual minimum. STRANGFORD - 73963. Note that, unlike the present seat of the same name, this does actually include Strangford. MID ULSTER - 71501 And that's it. All 600 seats done and dusted. (Pats self on back.) |
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Dalek
Conservative
Aldershot and Glasgow Kelvingrove
Posts: 110
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Post by Dalek on Jul 27, 2016 20:44:03 GMT
  Definitely a first draft only. Wonder if three Belfast seats will work better - I suspect that is the answer Belfast only retained 4 seats in recent reviews due to all 4 constituencies including wards outside the city. The most logical constituencies could be North West, South West and South East. However, two Belfast constituencies could also be possible divided by the river residual wards from the city were included in constituencies outside (15 non-Belfast constituencies rather than 14). |
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Dalek
Conservative
Aldershot and Glasgow Kelvingrove
Posts: 110
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Post by Dalek on Jul 31, 2016 9:18:08 GMT
Belfast meets the electoral quota exactly for three constituencies. It has only retained 4 in recent reviews from E, N and S including non-Belfast Wards.
My view is that the boundary commission were avoiding making major re-structuring to the existing constituencies by allowing them to move outwards beyond the city.
Looking at Belfast, a third of the wards are East of the River Lagan, so a new Belfast East could be based on these wards (gaining the wards from Belfast South that are East of the Lagan but losing the wards outside the city).
The wards West of the River Lagan could be divided into two constituencies -
An extended Belfast North that would become a semi-safe SF constituency with the DUP quite far behind and a Belfast South that would be harder to predict because it loses wards to East but gains wards from West. I would imagine that it would be a close SDLP/SF marginal with the OUP and the DUP far behind. On raw notional figures I SF might be ahead but in practice the Alliance vote would be likely to go to the SDLP to keep SF out.
There is another alternative that could avoid major boundary changes. The existing Belfast West constituency could be preserved and extended to include 2 further wards to meet the new quota. The remaining wards between Belfast West and the River Lagan (separating Belfast East) could become Belfast Central. This would be more like a merger between Belfast North and Belfast South (omitting the wards outside the city or East of the Lagan). The North and South of the city would be linked by the city centre. Such a constituency would be extremely marginal and a prospect for either the DUP, SF or the SDLP.
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,453
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Post by iain on Aug 16, 2016 12:19:39 GMT
Just as useless though
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Adrian
Co-operative Party
Posts: 1,742
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Post by Adrian on Sept 5, 2016 1:39:04 GMT
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 5, 2016 23:06:19 GMT
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 5, 2016 23:54:00 GMT
I don't like the look of Belfast North. Upper Bann could be dicey too
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 6, 2016 0:06:37 GMT
Without having done any numbers, I would reckon:
Belfast East: DUP, vulnerable to APNI
Belfast North West: SF narrow lead over DUP
Belfast South West: SF lead; close for second between DUP and SDLP
Dalriada: DUP safe
East Antrim: DUP safe
Fermanagh and South Tyrone: SF; relatively narrow lead over UU
Foyle: SDLP, no substantial change
Glenshane: DUP but marginal to SF
Newry and Armagh: SF narrow lead over UU (not substantially changed from existing)
North Down: Ind UU for as long as the sitting MP stands
North Tyrone: SF safe
South Antrim: Probably DUP; much less good for UU than existing seat
South Down: SDLP lead over SF; not substantially changed
Strangford: DUP safe
Upper Bann and Blackwater: DUP but could be quite close if nationalist vote is more united than unionists
West Down: DUP safe
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 6, 2016 0:17:33 GMT
So only six seats assured for the DUP (while that bloody woman is in North Down). They've taken the three less than solid Unionist seats (East Londonderry, Upper Bann, Belfast North) and shifted them all decisively in Sinn Fein's favour)
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 6, 2016 0:25:00 GMT
 Some very weird splitting of sopme towns going on (Newtownabbey, Newtonbreda, Dungannon etc. I really think taking out Banbridge etc and adding Coalisland puts Upper Bann in the Sinn Fein column. They've been gifted two seats at least |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 6, 2016 0:53:02 GMT
Actually East Londonderry is more or less replaced by Dalriada (although more of it I think is from North Antrim) so we don't effectively lose a seat there. The situation in Belfast though is about as bad as it could be
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Post by lancastrian on Sept 6, 2016 1:19:33 GMT
Without having done any numbers, I would reckon: Belfast East: DUP, vulnerable to APNI Belfast North West: SF narrow lead over DUP Belfast South West: SF lead; close for second between DUP and SDLP Dalriada: DUP safe East Antrim: DUP safe Fermanagh and South Tyrone: SF; relatively narrow lead over UU Foyle: SDLP, no substantial change Glenshane: DUP but marginal to SF Newry and Armagh: SF narrow lead over UU (not substantially changed from existing) North Down: Ind UU for as long as the sitting MP stands North Tyrone: SF safe South Antrim: Probably DUP; much less good for UU than existing seat South Down: SDLP lead over SF; not substantially changed Strangford: DUP safe Upper Bann and Blackwater: DUP but could be quite close if nationalist vote is more united than unionists West Down: DUP safe You missed West Antrim: DUP Looking at the 2014 local elections, Glenshane would be a nationalist seat. I agree about Upper Bann being close but would lean Sinn Fein there as well. |
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