jamie
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Post by jamie on Sept 17, 2018 12:13:27 GMT
Brentford, Isleworth and Chiswick.... meh. What was wrong with keeping the existing name of Brentford and Isleworth? Yes, I know that Chiswick has "form" and was previously in a constituency title (when Hounslow had 3 seats) but it's already in the constituency and they've managed until now without the clunky "A, B and C" naming format, so no reason to add it now. I agree the 3 places in the name is unnecessary, but I'm glad Chiswick is back in the name. Chiswick is the largest single place in the constituency and is rather separate from the rest of it. 'Chiswick and Isleworth' would be a good name imo. |
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mondialito
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Post by mondialito on Sept 17, 2018 12:31:16 GMT
Brentford, Isleworth and Chiswick.... meh. What was wrong with keeping the existing name of Brentford and Isleworth? Yes, I know that Chiswick has "form" and was previously in a constituency title (when Hounslow had 3 seats) but it's already in the constituency and they've managed until now without the clunky "A, B and C" naming format, so no reason to add it now. I agree the 3 places in the name is unnecessary, but I'm glad Chiswick is back in the name. Chiswick is the largest single place in the constituency and is rather separate from the rest of it. 'Chiswick and Isleworth' would be a good name imo. 'But what about Brentford?!' A clear case of the Commission hedging its bets to stop local anoraks from getting their pitchforks out. I'd have gone for 'Brentford and Chiswick' personally as they both seem to be more well-known places than Isleworth. |
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Post by yellowperil on Sept 17, 2018 15:52:02 GMT
I agree the 3 places in the name is unnecessary, but I'm glad Chiswick is back in the name. Chiswick is the largest single place in the constituency and is rather separate from the rest of it. 'Chiswick and Isleworth' would be a good name imo. 'But what about Brentford?!' A clear case of the Commission hedging its bets to stop local anoraks from getting their pitchforks out. I'd have gone for 'Brentford and Chiswick' personally as they both seem to be more well-known places than Isleworth. Not least because if you aren't local there may well bethe difficulty of how you pronounce Isleworth  |
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Adrian
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Post by Adrian on Sept 17, 2018 17:00:36 GMT
I agree the 3 places in the name is unnecessary, but I'm glad Chiswick is back in the name. Chiswick is the largest single place in the constituency and is rather separate from the rest of it. 'Chiswick and Isleworth' would be a good name imo. 'But what about Brentford?!' A clear case of the Commission hedging its bets to stop local anoraks from getting their pitchforks out. I'd have gone for 'Brentford and Chiswick' personally as they both seem to be more well-known places than Isleworth. It'd be unfortunate if constituencies were named on the basis of how well-known the places within them are. Isleworth has always been an important settlement in Middlesex, the parish having included both Heston and Hounslow.
I think this constituency ought to be named: Isleworth, Osterley, Brentford, Chiswick, Ealing South and Acton South.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Sept 17, 2018 17:04:37 GMT
It'd be unfortunate if constituencies were named on the basis of how well-known the places within them are. Isleworth has always been an important settlement in Middlesex, the parish having included both Heston and Hounslow.
I think this constituency ought to be named: Isleworth, Osterley, Brentford, Chiswick, Ealing South, Acton South and Turnham Green.
FTFY |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 17, 2018 17:10:53 GMT
Brentford is in the middle, Chiswick at the east, Isleworth in the west; a constituency name with any accuracy should include all three.
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Adrian
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Post by Adrian on Sept 17, 2018 17:18:47 GMT
"Eltham and Welling renamed to Eltham and East Wickham" East Wickham? I didn't know that even existed as a place these days (or is it one of those constituency names that's based on something historic)? I live in south-east London and have only ever heard that name because it's apparently where Kate Bush grew up. Therefore, I can see it must exist or have existed in some form but, in the last 20 years I've been here, I've never heard anyone say they're from East Wickham if you ask them. Having said that, I don't know if they'd say Welling or Plumstead or something else. West Wickham on the other hand I do know as it's next to Beckenham, and confusingly nowhere near East Wickham! They had a problem because the centre of Welling is not in the Welling ward. Strictly speaking, only half of East Wickham is in East Wickham ward, but it's probably the most suitable name to include in the seat title, if you don't think "Eltham" on its own is good enough.
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Adrian
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Post by Adrian on Sept 17, 2018 17:21:35 GMT
It'd be unfortunate if constituencies were named on the basis of how well-known the places within them are. Isleworth has always been an important settlement in Middlesex, the parish having included both Heston and Hounslow.
I think this constituency ought to be named: Isleworth, Osterley, Brentford, Chiswick, Ealing South, Acton South and Turnham Green.
FTFY What about Gunnersbury?
How about: Isleworth, Osterley, Chiswick, Gunnersbury, Turnham Green, Ealing South, Acton South and the Brentfords. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 17, 2018 18:16:56 GMT
What about Gunnersbury?
How about: Isleworth, Osterley, Chiswick, Gunnersbury, Turnham Green, Ealing South, Acton South and the Brentfords. Because that is daft as a brush. |
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Post by greatkingrat on Sept 17, 2018 18:30:06 GMT
Just call it North London 23 or something.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Sept 17, 2018 18:52:39 GMT
Hounslow I-Ealing II
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Post by johnloony on Sept 17, 2018 22:49:17 GMT
Not least because if you aren't local there may well be the difficulty of how you pronounce Isleworth Chiswick is pronounced "ile-worth" and Isleworth is pronounced "chizz-wick". |
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Post by minionofmidas on Sept 19, 2018 9:14:50 GMT
"Eltham and Welling renamed to Eltham and East Wickham" East Wickham? I didn't know that even existed as a place these days (or is it one of those constituency names that's based on something historic)? I live in south-east London and have only ever heard that name because it's apparently where Kate Bush grew up. Therefore, I can see it must exist or have existed in some form but, in the last 20 years I've been here, I've never heard anyone say they're from East Wickham if you ask them. Having said that, I don't know if they'd say Welling or Plumstead or something else. West Wickham on the other hand I do know as it's next to Beckenham, and confusingly nowhere near East Wickham! They had a problem because the centre of Welling is not in the Welling ward. Strictly speaking, only half of East Wickham is in East Wickham ward, but it's probably the most suitable name to include in the seat title, if you don't think "Eltham" on its own is good enough.
"Eltham and nearby suburbs". |
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Post by jacoblamsden on Oct 4, 2018 20:06:40 GMT
Whilst the reasons for Conservative decline in areas such as Eastern Enfield and Northern Redbridge are well-documented, I am not entirely sure as to why they have fallen back in a relatively short space of time in the newly created Beckenham constituency (which is reverting to pre-2010 boundaries) – since even the poorly-regarded Jacqui Lait managed to achieve an 8,000 majority in 2005. Both the notional results on Electoral calculus (3000 majority) and the recent local election results (both parties neck-and-neck) place Bob Stewart in a surprisingly perilous position.
Even though I moved away from the area in 2011, this level of Tory decline surprises me, since on my subsequent visits, I do not get the impression that the demographics of the 4 southern wards have radically shifted since 2005 and whilst Penge and Cator and Crystal Palace wards are bad for the Tories today, they have been strongly Labour for decades. Clock House ward is more of a puzzle since the housing stock has been more heavily gentrified than in any other ward in the past decade, yet it appears to be the one which has most evident decline in the Conservative vote.
Since I am now longer as acquainted with the state of opinion in Beckenham as I once was, does anyone know what is going on here? Does Bob Stewart have a negative personal vote or has one emerged since his advocacy of Brexit? Are increasing numbers of wealthy incomers to Beckenham from inner London and taking their voting habits with them? Is the solid Lib Dem performance in wards such as Copers Cope Tory-friendly making the local results a poor predictor of GE’s here? (but then again there was a large Lib Dem vote in 2005 yet the Tories were way ahead of Labour) Or is electoral calculus rubbish and Stewart actually pretty safe?
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Post by John Chanin on Oct 5, 2018 8:24:11 GMT
Anthony Wells has a notional Conservative majority of just 1600 in Beckenham. So, yes, it looks like a marginal now. I suspect it's not so different from all the other halfway out suburbs, where the Conservative vote has been declining for decades (eg Finchley).
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 5, 2018 9:22:45 GMT
Whilst the reasons for Conservative decline in areas such as Eastern Enfield and Northern Redbridge are well-documented, I am not entirely sure as to why they have fallen back in a relatively short space of time in the newly created Beckenham constituency (which is reverting to pre-2010 boundaries) – since even the poorly-regarded Jacqui Lait managed to achieve an 8,000 majority in 2005. Both the notional results on Electoral calculus (3000 majority) and the recent local election results (both parties neck-and-neck) place Bob Stewart in a surprisingly perilous position. Even though I moved away from the area in 2011, this level of Tory decline surprises me, since on my subsequent visits, I do not get the impression that the demographics of the 4 southern wards have radically shifted since 2005 and whilst Penge and Cator and Crystal Palace wards are bad for the Tories today, they have been strongly Labour for decades. Clock House ward is more of a puzzle since the housing stock has been more heavily gentrified than in any other ward in the past decade, yet it appears to be the one which has most evident decline in the Conservative vote. Since I am now longer as acquainted with the state of opinion in Beckenham as I once was, does anyone know what is going on here? Does Bob Stewart have a negative personal vote or has one emerged since his advocacy of Brexit? Are increasing numbers of wealthy incomers to Beckenham from inner London and taking their voting habits with them? Is the solid Lib Dem performance in wards such as Copers Cope Tory-friendly making the local results a poor predictor of GE’s here? (but then again there was a large Lib Dem vote in 2005 yet the Tories were way ahead of Labour) Or is electoral calculus rubbish and Stewart actually pretty safe? Well, I can offer myself as an anecdote... I'm a Labour voter formerly resident in inner London who moved into a family house in Clock House last year, and took my Labour voting habit with me. The types of people I have met since moving here are of a very similar demographic, people who have started families and want more space without leaving London altogether. They are professional, but liberal metropolitan in mindset and mostly unlikely to be Tory voters. (Though there are also a lot of older retired or approaching retired people about, which will no doubt help the Tories keep a relatively high floor for the time being.) What you say about the Lib Dems may be true. Of course back in 2005 they were taking a lot of local Labour votes whereas at the most recent locals they appeared to be substantially eating into Tory votes in Copers Cope, and their relatively strong performance in Clock House might be partly explained by that as well. (We talked a bit about Copers Cope on the Bromley thread - the story appears to be a very active LD campaign combined with demographic change making the ward somewhat younger, especially in all the private flats, combined I suspect with a remain backlash in what was one of the stronger remain wards in Bromley) So hard to say - I would err on the side of the notionals understating the Tories but with a substantial and growing Labour core it could certainly become competitive. (I am torn between wanting to kill off the boundary changes to keep my safe Labour MP and wanting them passed so I can be in a marginal!) |
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Post by islington on Oct 5, 2018 9:58:13 GMT
Well, I was going to say something similar but Strinity has beaten me to it. Look at the next-door seat of Croydon Central. The Tories won it by nearly 3000 in 2010; in 2015 hung on by only 165; and lost quite comfortably by over 5600 votes last year. If the seat is fought again on the same boundaries I'd expect it to look very safe for Labour. A lot of broadly similar seats have been heading the same way, and not just in London. Hove is a spectacular example: safe Tory until and including 1992; marginal from 1997 to 2015; utterly rock-solid Labour, majority nearly 19000, in 2017.
Before Labour supporters on the forum get too jubilant, I should add that the Tories are making their own inroads elsewhere so that such former Labour bastions as Walsall N, Stoke S and Mansfield are now Tory seats. What appears to be happening is a process of political realignment as the two main parties begin to appeal to different categories of voter (and something very similar, and more dramatic, is taking place in the US as the Republicans pick up seats in white working-class areas but at the same time struggle to hold on to the votes that they previously hoovered up in well-heeled suburbs).
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 5, 2018 10:09:00 GMT
Though in actual fact all three Tory gains you mention are seats where they have at least been competitive in the past, and demographic change is also a factor. In none of them is it as simple as former Labour voters switching en masse to the Tories (even though the media are very fond of this particular narrative)
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Post by islington on Oct 5, 2018 11:11:40 GMT
Well, yes. Changing demography is a factor, as is differential turnout. There's certainly more to it than simple vote-switching.
But even so ....
I could have added NE Derbyshire, Middlesbrough S and Copeland to the three I mentioned (the comparison in the last-named being with the 2015 GE, not the intervening byelection).
And I'm also looking at the Tory near-misses in 2017: that is, the Labour seats that they came closest to capturing. If we confine ourselves only to the ones they missed by 2500 or fewer, we have (in ascending order): Dudley N, Newcastle-u-L, Barrow, Ashfield, Bishop Auckland, Penistone, Wrexham, Wakefield, Wolverhampton SW, Stoke N.
All I'm saying is that there's a pattern here.
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Post by beastofbedfordshire on Oct 5, 2018 11:27:32 GMT
Well, yes. Changing demography is a factor, as is differential turnout. There's certainly more to it than simple vote-switching. But even so .... I could have added NE Derbyshire, Middlesbrough S and Copeland to the three I mentioned (the comparison in the last-named being with the 2015 GE, not the intervening byelection). And I'm also looking at the Tory near-misses in 2017: that is, the Labour seats that they came closest to capturing. If we confine ourselves only to the ones they missed by 2500 or fewer, we have (in ascending order): Dudley N, Newcastle-u-L, Barrow, Ashfield, Bishop Auckland, Penistone, Wrexham, Wakefield, Wolverhampton SW, Stoke N. All I'm saying is that there's a pattern here. Wolves SW is a bit different to the others you mentioned in that it seems to be drifting towards labour albeit a bit slowly. |
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