mondialito
Labour
Everything is horribly, brutally possible.
Posts: 4,961 
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Post by mondialito on Sept 13, 2016 0:00:06 GMT
'Willesden' randomly includes northernmost ward of Hammersmith. It did in 2013 as well. |
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Post by finsobruce on Sept 13, 2016 0:00:19 GMT
You have to bear in mind that the last four words are pronounced Arranthe'ill. Wembley and Harrow on the Hill = Wembley and Harrow South Harrow and Stanmore = Harrow North
Kenton can stay.I should hope so, Jolene won't be able to run "The Bull" without him.  |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,058
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Post by Sibboleth on Sept 13, 2016 0:02:30 GMT
ahahahahaha
Holborn & St Pancras does not include Holborn
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Adrian
Co-operative Party
Posts: 1,742
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Post by Adrian on Sept 13, 2016 0:06:48 GMT
The Commission must have a soft spot for the Edgware Road - no orphan wards shall pass!
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mondialito
Labour
Everything is horribly, brutally possible.
Posts: 4,961
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Post by mondialito on Sept 13, 2016 0:08:24 GMT
Hampstead & Golders Green manages to not include the ward of Golders Green. 'Hampstead and Cricklewood' or 'Hampstead and Barnet South'? |
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mondialito
Labour
Everything is horribly, brutally possible.
Posts: 4,961
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Post by mondialito on Sept 13, 2016 0:09:59 GMT
The Commission must have a soft spot for the Edgware Road - no orphan wards shall pass! Absolutely, if the A5 was crossed between Brent and Barnet, I'd be getting my pitchfork out! |
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mondialito
Labour
Everything is horribly, brutally possible.
Posts: 4,961
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Post by mondialito on Sept 13, 2016 0:11:13 GMT
ahahahahaha Holborn & St Pancras does not include Holborn 'St. Pancras'? |
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Post by greenchristian on Sept 13, 2016 0:28:08 GMT
"Queen's Park and Regent's Park" is one clumsy ass constituency name I thought you liked long and clumsy-ass constituency names. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,058
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Post by Sibboleth on Sept 13, 2016 0:32:20 GMT
Hendon looks like a faintly dodgy attempt to pack as many Orthodox Jews as possible into one constituency.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 13, 2016 0:57:07 GMT
I reckon in notional 2015 terms, 30 Labour and 28 Conservatives.
Tom Brake loses by 108 votes - the closest notional result.
Next closest result is the Merton and Wimbledon Central seat.
Enfield North turning into Enfield flips it to Conservative. But Finchley and Southgate is notionally Labour, as is the new Croydon Central.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,058
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Post by Sibboleth on Sept 13, 2016 1:03:16 GMT
Beloved politicians Iain Duncan Smith and John McDonnell see their easily choppable seats not chopped.
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mondialito
Labour
Everything is horribly, brutally possible.
Posts: 4,961
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Post by mondialito on Sept 13, 2016 1:04:18 GMT
Finchley and Southgate is notionally Labour, as is the new Croydon Central. So Con Gains rather than Holds in 2020 then? |
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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 13, 2016 1:07:26 GMT
Finchley and Southgate is notionally Labour, as is the new Croydon Central. So Con Gains rather than Holds in 2020 then? Croydon Central could be one of the few Labour wins in 2020, along with the likes of Brighton Kemptown. I was in Croydon Central recenly, on the tram, and nearly everyone under 40 was EM. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 13, 2016 1:13:27 GMT
London Labour target list
Merton and Wimbledon Central 0.4
Enfield 3.6
Erith and Crayford 8.0
Battersea 10.9
Brentford and Chiswick 11.4
Hillingdon and Uxbridge 12.2
Hendon 12.4
Chingford and Woodford Green 12.5
Hampstead and Golders Green 12.6
Harrow and Stanmore 14.9
Hammersmith and Fulham 16.1
Cities of London and Westminster 18.6
Conservative target list
Croydon Central 2.2
Finchley and Southgate 3.9
Kenton 8.9
Tooting 9.0
Ilford North 10.6
Eltham 11.6
Ealing Central and Shepherd's Bush 12.4
Queen's Park and Regent's Park 15.2
Feltham and Hounslow 17.2
Leytonstone and Wanstead 20.0
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 13, 2016 1:15:06 GMT
Lib Dem target list
Carshalton and Wallington 0.2
Twickenham 3.3
Kingston and Surbiton 4.8
Bermondsey and Old Southwark 8.2
Sutton and Cheam 10.0
Hornsey and Wood Green 22.3
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mondialito
Labour
Everything is horribly, brutally possible.
Posts: 4,961
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Post by mondialito on Sept 13, 2016 1:15:22 GMT
Beloved politicians Iain Duncan Smith and John McDonnell see their easily choppable seats not chopped. As does Stella Creasy. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 13, 2016 1:16:32 GMT
Lib Dem target list Carshalton and Wallington 0.2 Twickenham 3.3 Kingston and Surbiton 4.8 Bermondsey and Old Southwark 8.2 Sutton and Cheam 10.0 Hornsey and Wood Green 22.3 You'd think Tom Brake would hold his seat if he stands again. If he doesn't the Tories would probably be favourites. |
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Post by johnloony on Sept 13, 2016 3:14:59 GMT
I reckon in notional 2015 terms, 30 Labour and 28 Conservatives. Enfield North turning into Enfield flips it to Conservative. But Finchley and Southgate is notionally Labour, as is the new Croydon Central. My basic provisional back-of-envelope calculation puts Croydon Central slightly more Conservative, not less. The 2014 local election results in the wards concerned are: Lab 11,868 Con 11,769 (for the new proposed version) Lab 11,988 Con 11,319 (for the current version) so a Labour plurality of 679 becomes one of 99. Extrapolating on this basis from the 2014 local elections to the 2015 general election makes a Conservative plurality of about 1,000 rather than 165. |
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Post by johnloony on Sept 13, 2016 3:22:04 GMT
So Con Gains rather than Holds in 2020 then? Croydon Central could be one of the few Labour wins in 2020, along with the likes of Brighton Kemptown. I was in Croydon Central recenly, on the tram, and nearly everyone under 40 was EM. It is easy to be misled by anecdata like that, because the proportion of people in Croydon who are BME varies a lot between different areas, and also varies between the bus/tram population and the pavement/car population (not to mention the house/real people population). But in general terms, you are right because Croydon Central has a very high BME population compared with most other Conservative constituencies - even compared with other London constituencies let alone the rest of England. |
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Post by johnloony on Sept 13, 2016 3:25:59 GMT
I reckon in notional 2015 terms, 30 Labour and 28 Conservatives. Have you lost 10? Do you mean Labour 40? |
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