2018 Review - East of England

[Pete Whitehead]

Kings Lynn & Wisbech seemed the obvious solution to me last time out too - I was gobsmacked by what they come up with instead.
I like the fact you keep the shape of Huntingdonshire largely intact by taking out a small geographical area (St Ives) - objectively a fairly unimportant matter I'm sure, but these little things matter to me

[East Anglian Lefty]

I'd say the major problem there is Wisbech & King's Lynn - both because it's not minimum change and because Wisbech has much better links with Downham Market. I'd bring up road connections and TTWAs in particular.

I'm also not wildly keen on connecting Ely northwards, because in general it's a Cambridge commuter area. I don't think it's a deal-breaker, because it is still a fenland area, but ideally I think you want to keep as much of East Cambridgeshire in a Cambridge-based seat as possible.

The South-West Cambridgeshire seat is a good idea, but if you're taking that route then I'd look to combine as much of the A428, A14 and guided busway corridors in a single seat as possible. So Fenstanton definitely needs to go in (otherwise the seat isn't actually contiguous by road, though the gap is only about 10 yards) and adding Histon and Girton would be preferable.

I can't speak with confidence about community links in Norfolk, but I don't like the look of your Norwich North.

[greenhert]

Some better proposals for Suffolk.

1. Central Suffolk & Ipswich North. Loses the Castle Hill ward to Ipswich, and gains Ricklinghall & Walsham and Gislingham wards in Mid Suffolk. New electorate: 75,001.
2. Ipswich. Gains Castle Hill ward. New electorate: 76,284.
3. Bury St Edmunds. Simply loses Ricklinghall & Walsham and Gislingham wards. New electorate: 77,642.

Suffolk Coastal, West Suffolk, South Suffolk, and Waveney are unchanged from their current boundaries, although Waveney's name should be changed to Lowestoft since it does not contain all of Waveney district.

[East Anglian Lefty]

I'd say that makes sense, though I can see arguments for moving Whitehouse ward instead. Either way one half of Castle Hill is stranded on the other side of a railway track from the rest of the seat. It'd be much easier if you could use the county boundaries, which divide Castle Hill along that line.

[greenhert]

Onto Bedfordshire.

1. Luton South. The current Luton South plus the ward of Barnfield. Electorate: 71, 881.
2. Luton North. The current Luton North minus the ward of Barnfield but plus the Central Bedfordshire wards of Toddington, Barton-le-Clay, and Aspley & Woburn. Electorate: 74,352.
3. Dunstable & Leighton Buzzard. The Central Bedfordshire wards of Dunstable-Central/Icknield/Manshead/Northfield/Watling, Houghton Hall, Parkside, Tithe Farm, Heath & Reach, and Leighton Buzzard North/South. Electorate: 74,509.
4. Mid Bedfordshire. The Central Bedfordshire wards of Stotfold & Langford, Arlesey, Flitwick, Shefford, Silsoe & Shillington, Ampthill, Houghton Conquest & Haynes, Cranfield & Marston Moretaine, Westoning, Flitton & Greenfield, and Wilshamstead. Electorate: 71,321.
5. Bedford. As the current Bedford constituency plus the ward of Elstow. Electorate: 73,269.
6. North Bedfordshire. All remaining Bedford wards and all remaining Central Bedfordshire wards, including Biggleswade. Electorate: 74,242.

[greenhert]

Norfolk:

1. Yarmouth. The current Yarmouth constituency plus the Broadland wards of Acle, Burlingham and Marshes. Electorate: 76,227.
2. South East Norfolk. The current Norfolk South constituency minus the ward of Old Costessey (really a suburb of Norwich); name has been changed since it is not coterminous with the Norfolk South district. Electorate: 72,454.
3. Norwich South. As the current Norwich South plus the South Norfolk ward of Old Costessey. Electorate: 75,061.
4. Norwich North. As the current Norwich North plus the Broadland wards of Taverham North/South and Drayton North/South. Electorate: 74,948.
5. North East Norfolk. As the current North Norfolk constituency plus the Broadland wards of Astley and Wensum and also Walsingham ward in North Norfolk. Really in the north east of Norfolk hence the name change. Electorate: 72,988.
6. Mid Norfolk. All Broadland wards not in Norwich North, plus the South Norfolk wards of Cromwells, Abbey, Towns, Rustens, Northfields, Wicklewood, and Hingham & Deopham, plus the Breckland wards of Mattishall, Dereham Neatherd/Toftwood/Withburga, Lincoln, and Upper Wensum. Electorate: 74,316.
7. Thetford. The remainder of the Breckland district, plus the North Norfolk wards of Lancaster North/South and The Raynhams. Electorate: 78,142.
8. North West Norfolk. As the current North West Norfolk constituency plus the wards of Airfield and Watlington. Electorate: 76,206.
9. Wisbech & Downham Market (cross-county): The remainder of the King's Lynn and West Norfolk district plus the Fenland wards of March East/North/West, Roman Bank, Parson Drove & Wisbech St Mary, Elm & Christchurch, Medworth, Staithe, Octavia Hill, Kirkgate, Waterlees Village, Peckover and Clarkson. Electorate: 77,540.

[East Anglian Lefty]

The Thetford seat you describe has an electorate of 84,996. I think it would be an incredibly bad idea even if the numbers worked, but they don't.

[Pete Whitehead]

Mar 11, 2016 20:53:14 GMT greenhert said:

Onto Bedfordshire.

1. Luton South. The current Luton South plus the ward of Barnfield. Electorate: 71, 881.
2. Luton North. The current Luton North minus the ward of Barnfield but plus the Central Bedfordshire wards of Toddington, Barton-le-Clay, and Aspley & Woburn. Electorate: 74,352.

Just no

[Pete Whitehead]

Here's my take on Bedfordshire which I designed ages ago but was unable to display satisfactorily on existing ,maps due to ward boundary changes



Sure it splits Dunstable in two which is far from ideal but seems to me like better than any of the alternatives

[Pete Whitehead]

My suggestion for Cambridgeshire/Norfolk - fairly similar to Islington's plan in essentials I think

[greenhert]

Mar 11, 2016 23:40:44 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

The Thetford seat you describe has an electorate of 84,996. I think it would be an incredibly bad idea even if the numbers worked, but they don't.

I checked on Plan Builder and this hypothetical Thetford seat definitely adds up to 78,142, not 84,996. Where did you get the extra 6,854 voters from?

Breckland district has 97,669 voters, and the electorates of all the Breckland wards included in my Mid Norfolk proposal add up to 27,461, leaving 70,208 voters left in Breckland district. The wards of The Raynhams, Lancaster North and Lancaster South in North Norfolk add up to 7,934. 70,208+7,934=78,142.

A lot of the seats that will eventually end up being created will be pretty bad anyway because of that 5% variance limit

[Pete Whitehead]

Its not that an East/West divide is inherently a bad thing but the way you've done it is illogical as it divides Bury Park and there is no real connection between Farley Hill and the Leagrave area.
What's worse though is that you've split Luton between three seats when it doesn't have enough voters for two whole seats and the wards you've detached have no conceivable connection the areas outside that you've linked them with

[greenhert]

Cambridgeshire and Huntingdonshire:

1. Cambridge. Simply gains Queen Edith's ward so it is now coterminous with the city of Cambridge. Electorate: 72,757.
2. Peterborough. As the current Peterborough constituency plus Fletton with Woodton ward. Electorate: 77,607.
3. North Huntingdonshire. The remainder of the Peterborough unitary authority area (i.e. that outside the city of Peterborough in practice) plus the Huntingdonshire wards of Elton & Folksworth, Yaxley & Farcet, Stilton, Ramsey, Warboys & Bury, Somersham & Sawtry. Name has been changed to reflect the fact this is really all in Huntingdonshire and not Cambridgeshire. Electorate: 73,444.
4. Huntingdon & St Neots. The remainder of Huntingdonshire except for the wards of St Ives East/South/West, Fenstanton, and Earith; this includes the towns of Huntingdon and St Neots. Electorate: 71,618.
5. Mid Cambridgeshire & St Ives. The Huntingdonshire wards of St Ives East/South/West, Fenstanton, and Earith plus the South Cambridgeshire wards of Bourn, Papworth & Elmsworth, Willingham & Oyer, Swaseley, Cottenham, Histon & Impington, Girton, Longstanton, Hardwick, Comberton, Barton, Orwell & Barrington, Caldecote, Bar Hill, and Haslingfield & The Eversdens. Electorate: 72,154.
6. South Cambridgeshire. All remaining wards in South Cambridgeshire plus the East Cambridgeshire wards of Burwell, The Swaffhams, Dullingham Villages, Cheveley, and Bottisham. Electorate: 71,091.
7. Ely & Chatteris. The Fenland wards of Benwick, Coates & Eastrea, Lattersey, Bassenhally, St Andrews, Stonald, Doddington & Wimblington, Manea, Slade Lode, The Mills, Wenneye, and Birch, plus all of East Cambridgeshire except for the wards of Burwell, The Swaffhams, Dullingham Villages, Cheveley, and Bottisham. Electorate: 73,415.

[lennon]

Mar 12, 2016 11:24:00 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Here's my take on Bedfordshire which I designed ages ago but was unable to display satisfactorily on existing ,maps due to ward boundary changes



Sure it splits Dunstable in two which is far from ideal but seems to me like better than any of the alternatives

I'm probably missing something, but why do you need to split Dunstable - particularly given that the current Bedfordshire South-West (ie Dunstable + Leighton Buzzard) is in quota unchanged? The way I worked it was to leave that seat as is, Luton South is the current seat + Saints ward, and then Luton North takes 3 wards from the North - Toddington, Barton-le-Clay, and Westoning would be my suggestion.

[Pete Whitehead]

It's a personal preference for keeping the Luton seats as entirely urban, but your plan makes perfectly good sense too and there's precedent for these areas being included with Luton North as they were from 1983-97.
Alternatively I think greatkingrat found a way to include all of Dunstable in Luton North, but again my preference was to include Houghton Regis. I don't necessarily say (in this case) that my plan is superior, just that it's my preference. It's good to bat about these ideas between us on here as by the time it comes to making submissions we may have perfected some of these plans, as for example in the way greatkingrat suggested some improvements to my original plan for Hertfordshire and I was able to help Greenchristian perfect his plan for Coventry and Warwickshire

[East Anglian Lefty]

Mar 12, 2016 14:43:57 GMT greenhert said:

Mar 11, 2016 23:40:44 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

The Thetford seat you describe has an electorate of 84,996. I think it would be an incredibly bad idea even if the numbers worked, but they don't.

I checked on Plan Builder and this hypothetical Thetford seat definitely adds up to 78,142, not 84,996. Where did you get the extra 6,854 voters from?

Breckland district has 97,669 voters, and the electorates of all the Breckland wards included in my Mid Norfolk proposal add up to 27,461, leaving 70,208 voters left in Breckland district. The wards of The Raynhams, Lancaster North and Lancaster South in North Norfolk add up to 7,934. 70,208+7,934=78,142.

A lot of the seats that will eventually end up being created will be pretty bad anyway because of that 5% variance limit

Sorry, I didn't mean the Thetford seat, I meant the Mid-Norfolk one.

I make it as 41,618 voters in Broadland, 27,461 in Breckland, 15,917 in South Norfolk. Though again, the problem isn't so much the size as the fact it's an unwieldy abomination.

[greenhert]

Mar 13, 2016 13:32:45 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

Mar 12, 2016 14:43:57 GMT greenhert said:

I checked on Plan Builder and this hypothetical Thetford seat definitely adds up to 78,142, not 84,996. Where did you get the extra 6,854 voters from?

Breckland district has 97,669 voters, and the electorates of all the Breckland wards included in my Mid Norfolk proposal add up to 27,461, leaving 70,208 voters left in Breckland district. The wards of The Raynhams, Lancaster North and Lancaster South in North Norfolk add up to 7,934. 70,208+7,934=78,142.

A lot of the seats that will eventually end up being created will be pretty bad anyway because of that 5% variance limit

Sorry, I didn't mean the Thetford seat, I meant the Mid-Norfolk one.

I make it as 41,618 voters in Broadland, 27,461 in Breckland, 15,917 in South Norfolk. Though again, the problem isn't so much the size as the fact it's an unwieldy abomination.

So is Meon Valley but the Boundary Commission still allowed that constituency to be created. The same goes for Central Devon.

My Mid Norfolk seat is actually within quota-by 'all Broadland wards not in Norwich North' I actually meant 'all Broadland wards not in the expanded Norwich North, the expanded Yarmouth, or North East Norfolk.'

[East Anglian Lefty]

Mar 13, 2016 15:58:31 GMT greenhert said:

Mar 13, 2016 13:32:45 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

Sorry, I didn't mean the Thetford seat, I meant the Mid-Norfolk one.

I make it as 41,618 voters in Broadland, 27,461 in Breckland, 15,917 in South Norfolk. Though again, the problem isn't so much the size as the fact it's an unwieldy abomination.

So is Meon Valley but the Boundary Commission still allowed that constituency to be created. The same goes for Central Devon.

My Mid Norfolk seat is actually within quota-by 'all Broadland wards not in Norwich North' I actually meant 'all Broadland wards not in the expanded Norwich North, the expanded Yarmouth, or North East Norfolk.'

1. What Broadland wards are in North East Norfolk? The only two you mentioned were Astley and Wensum, neither of which are actually in Broadland district (they're in North Norfolk).

2. Those seats at least allowed everywhere else to fit in nicely (and in the case of Central Devon, you're going to have an unwieldy mess, just because nobody really lives in the centre of Devon.) Your Mid-Norfolk isn't necessary and doesn't noticeably improve any of the other seats. I just can't see why you'd want to put Wymondham in that seat when the numbers don't come close to forcing you to.

[East Anglian Lefty]

Here's a slightly different take on Bedfordshire to the ones we've seen thus far:



Luton South (71,881) - gains Barnfield and the rest of Caddington
Luton North & Houghton Regis (71,188) - loses Barnfield, gains the three Houghton Regis wards
South West Bedfordshire (73,992) - lose Houghton Regis and part of Caddington, gains Toddington and Barton-le-Clay
Mid Bedfordshire (71,526) - loses Elstow, Kempston Rural, Wootton and Wilhamstead from Bedford and part of Northill from Central Bedfordshire, gains Stotfold & Langford and the rest of Arlesey from Central Bedfordshire
North-East Bedfordshire (77,718) - along with various minor changes to ward boundaries around Bedford, gains Kempston Rural, Wootton and Wilhamstead from Bedford and part of Northill from Central Bedfordshire, loses all of Stotfold & Langford and part of Arlesey.

I'm increasingly fond of this approach. Dunstable looks a bit isolated, but there's a reasonable road to Leighton Buzzard via Totternhoe and whilst the route along Watling Street is theoretically cut, in practice it's just going through fields. And whilst the Luton-Dunstable boundary probably isn't too real on the ground, it all follows the same road so it's good enough for Boundary Commission purposes. I'm not wed to the boundaries between Mid and North-East, I just figured there was some logic in only having Bedford borough divided between two seats.

[East Anglian Lefty]

Slight modification of the above, initially devised as an attempt to shore up Luton South a little more, but I think probably also an improvement on community grounds:



Caddington goes into SW Beds, Saints into Luton South and Toddington and Barton-le-Clay into Luton North. This gives Luton South a strong boundary upon the M1 and ensures that the portion of Toddington ward in its south-east corner, which only has a road link to Luton, is no longer isolated. Barton isn't a great fit, but it's not the end of the world either.

SW Beds then takes Aspley and Woburn, whilst Mid Beds takes Wilshamstead. This means Bedford borough is split three ways again, but it's required for electoral equality and links along the A6 are better than E-W links.