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Post by greenchristian on Mar 6, 2016 22:34:31 GMT
I find it somewhat unlikely that a seat which does not contain Perry Barr would be called Birmingham Perry Barr. I take it you haven't been paying any attention to the recent review of council boundaries in Birmingham... Either way, I'm not a huge fan of greenhert's proposals, if only because I'd prefer Coventry to get its extra ward/wards from Warwickshire, and - if possible - keep it down to one cross-bounday constituency (I haven't looked at the numbers yet, and I'd prefer to wait until boundary assistant has the updated data). Also, that's a lot of ward splitting, including in rural wards, so I can't see the boundary commission liking it. |
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Post by greenhert on Mar 7, 2016 20:29:07 GMT
Another awkward area to cover: Shropshire, Herefordshire, and Worcestershire. There is unfortunately no sensible way of avoiding splitting Herefordshire into three constituencies, one of which is entirely within Herefordshire, one a Herefordshire-Shropshire cross-border constituency and one a Herefordshire-Worcestershire cross-border constituency.
1. Telford & Newport. The Telford & Wrekin wards of Horsehay & Lightmoor, Dawley & Aqueduct, Malinslee & Dawley Bank, Brookside, The Nedge, Ketley & Overdale, Oakengates & Ketley Bank, St Georges, Priorslee, Wrockwardne Wood & Trench, Muxton, Donnington, Church Aston & Lilleshall, Newport North & West and Newport South & East. Electorate: 72,122.
2. Wellington & Bridgnorth. All Telford & Wrekin wards not in the new constituency of Telford & Newport plus the Shropshire wards of Shifnal North, Shifnal South & Cosford, Albrighton, Worfield, Much Wenlock, Broseley, Bridgnorth East & Astley Abbotts, and Bridgnorth West & Tasley. Electorate: 78,352.
3. Oswestry. Same boundaries as North Shropshire with name changed. Electorate: 77,768.
4. Shrewsbury. Same boundaries as Shrewsbury & Atcham with name changed. Electorate: 75,528.
5. Leominster & Ludlow*. The Shropshire wards of Cleobury Mortimer, Clee, Church Stretton & Craven Arms, Ludlow East/South/West, Bishop's Castle, Corvedale, Clun, and Chirbury & Worthen, plus the Herefordshire wards of Mortimer, Bircher, Leominster North & Rural/East/South/West, Kington, Arrow, Hampton, Castle, Weobley, Queenswood, Sutton Walls, Bromyard Bingstry/West, Golden Valley North/South, and Hagley. Electorate: 72, 703.
6. Malvern & Ledbury*. The entire district of Malvern Hills plus the Herefordshire wards of Ledbury North/South/West, Bishops Frome & Cradley, Three Crosses, and Hope End. Electorate: 73,802.
7. Hereford. All Herefordshire wards not contained in either Malvern & Ledbury or Ludlow & Leominster (including the city of Hereford). Electorate: 74,666.
8. Wyre Forest. Unchanged from current boundaries. Electorate: 75,226.
9. Bromsgrove. Unchanged from current boundaries. Electorate: 72,042.
10. Redditch. The entire district of Redditch, plus the Wychavon wards of Inkberrow, Bowbrook, Upton Snodsbury, Drakes Broughton, and Pinvin. Electorate: 72,836.
11. Worcester. The entire city of Worcester plus the Wychavon ward of Norton & Whittington. Electorate: 72,912.
12. Evesham & Droitwich. All Wychavon wards except for Norton & Whittington, Inkberrow, Bowbrook, Upton Snodsbury, Drakes Broughton, and Pinvin. Centred on the towns of Evesham and Droitwich Spa. Electorate: 76,353.
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Post by greatkingrat on Mar 7, 2016 21:00:17 GMT
So I assume you must be pairing Warwickshire with Staffordshire? That seems to inevitably mean Tamworth will be split (and probably Nuneaton and/or Rugby as well).
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Post by greenhert on Mar 7, 2016 21:04:27 GMT
So I assume you must be pairing Warwickshire with Staffordshire? That seems to inevitably mean Tamworth will be split (and probably Nuneaton and/or Rugby as well). No, definitely not. Staffordshire can stand on its own anyway, with 11 seats. Warwickshire can have a cross-border constituency with Coventry, which ceremonially speaking is in Warwickshire which explains why the University of Warwick has a Coventry campus. |
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Post by greatkingrat on Mar 7, 2016 21:21:33 GMT
But yesterday you had Coventry paired with Solihull?
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Post by greenhert on Mar 7, 2016 21:43:35 GMT
But yesterday you had Coventry paired with Solihull? This mistake can be corrected. |
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Post by loderingo on Mar 9, 2016 22:19:29 GMT
![]()  Staffordshire Tamworth (73,305) - Loses split part of Hammerwich gains Whittington from Lichfield Lichfield (74,778) - Gains split part of Hammerwich loses Whittington to Tamworth; gains Haywood from Stafford Cannock Chase (73,470) - Unchanged South Staffs (72,132) - Unchanged Burton (72,542) - Unchanged Staffordshire Moorlands (78,211) - Loses Newchapel; gains the Staffordshire Moorlands wards from Stone to become coterminous with the district Stafford (72,896) - Loses Haywood to Lichfield; gains Gnosall+Seighford+Milwich from Stone Stone and Stoke South (72,298) -loses Gnosall+Seighford+Milwich and the Staffordshire Moorlands wards; gains Halmerand,Audley,Keele from Newcastle; gains Blurtonx2, Hanford,Dresden, Hollybush from the defunct Stoke S Newcastle-Under-Lyme (71,954) -loses Halmerand,Audley,Keele; gains the 4 Kidsgrove wards from Stoke N and Newchapel from Staffordshire Moorlands Stoke North (77,445) - loses the 4 Kidsgrove wards; gains the split wards Baddeley,Sneyd,Abbey, Birches, Etruria from Stoke Central Stoke Central (76,296) - loses the split wards Baddeley,Sneyd,Abbey, Birches, Etruria; gains Broadway, Fentonx2, Meirx4, Sandford, Weston,Lightwood from the defunct Stoke S A few comments: - Lichfield, Stafford and Stoke have had boundary changes so the map doesn't quite match up in these areas - Stone and Stoke S is I think the least worst option for the Potteries. The other options seemed to be a Kidsgrove and Stone seat or putting Kidsgrove back in with Staffordshire Moorlands, which i understand wasn't popular - It might be possible to juggle wards between Tamworth and Lichfield to avoid moving Haywood but it would be very tight |
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Post by greenchristian on Mar 10, 2016 22:29:01 GMT
Now playing around with Coventry and Warwickshire in Boundary Assistant, and am concluding that the best solution is probably going to involve a ward split somewhere in Coventry.
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Post by greenchristian on Mar 10, 2016 23:44:07 GMT
Here's my initial (fairly quick and rough) attempt at Coventry & Warwickshire. My main aim in this attempt is working out a way to fit in Coventry without splitting either Kenilworth or Bedworth in half and without incorporating masses of rural wards into Coventry. I wasn't really paying attention to where the district boundaries were within Warwickshire, so there might be a couple of cases where the boundaries can be improved by swapping out wards from one district into another to leave a constituency entirely within a single district. Attempting to incorporate Bedworth into the Coventry seats led to having to split Nuneaton down the middle in order to get North Warwickshire up to quota, which would be just as bad as splitting Kenilworth or Bedworth. 
Note that with most of Warwickshire's ward boundaries redrawn, quite a few of the changes are actually partial additions, as new wards straddle old constituency boundaries
Bedworth & North Warwickshire: 71,287- adds Arley & Whiteacre from Nuneaton Nuneaton: 73,783 - adds Bulkington, Wolvey & Shilton, Revel & Binley Woods from Rugby Coventry North-West: 70,256 - this is undersized by 775. Consists of Bablake, Foleshill, Holbrook, Radford, Sherbourne, Woodlands. Will take part of St Michaels from Coventry East. Coventry East: 83,070 - this is oversized by 4563. Consists of Binley & Willenhall, Henley, Longford, Lower Stoke, Upper Stoke, Wyken, and the parts of St Michaels not split with Coventry North-West Coventry South & Kenilworth: 74,998 - consists of Cheylesmore, Earlsdon, Wainbody, Westwood, Whoberley from Coventry and Abbey, St John's & Park Hill from Warwick District. It contains both halves of Warwick Uni campus and all of Kenilworth. Rugby (possibly Rugby & Southam): 71,981 - adds Dunsmore, Leam Valley, Long Ichington & Stockton Southam North, Southam South from Kenilworth & Southam Warwick & Leamington: 77,622 - adds Arden, Stoneleighn & Cubbington, and Radford Semele from Kenilworth & Southam Stratford Upon Avon: 71,266 - adds Bishops' Tachbrook from Warwick & Leamington, and the remaining parts of Kenilworth & Southam. This is one seat fewer than the current arrangement, and the nominal loss would be Labour (they would effectively be losing Coventry South). |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 11, 2016 8:44:11 GMT
Looks pretty sensible but it looks from the map that several Stratford wards are missing - is that just on the map and not on your numbers?
I'd have thought it makes sense to swap Whoberley and Woodlands around to keep Tile Hill together but not sure how thta affects your numbers
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Mar 11, 2016 12:02:05 GMT
Here's Staffordshire. The basic outline is fairly similar to loderingo's, but with significantly less change in Stoke, on the basis that it isn't necessary.  Stone is the abolished seat, but taking it apart flips both Newcastle and Stoke South. It's hard to see how that could be avoided though, unless you can somehow convince the Commission to put Biddulph into Stoke North and rearrange accordingly. |
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Post by greenchristian on Mar 11, 2016 16:33:37 GMT
Looks pretty sensible but it looks from the map that several Stratford wards are missing - is that just on the map and not on your numbers? I'd have thought it makes sense to swap Whoberley and Woodlands around to keep Tile Hill together but not sure how thta affects your numbers You're right - I missed out some wards, so I'll have to re-do it.  |
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Post by greenchristian on Mar 11, 2016 16:42:29 GMT
Here's a first go at Warwickshire. Must find an updated ward map, as some of the boundaries are a bit off in the southern part of the county. The numbers follow the current wards though, with one split (Wyken, Coventry).  That's a lot of chunks taken out of Coventry. And if you're going to split a ward between Coventry South and Rugby, Binley & Willenhall might be an easier split. |
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Post by greenchristian on Mar 11, 2016 17:59:35 GMT
OK, here's my revised attempt at Cov & Warks. Thanks to Pete Whitehead for pointing out my mistakes in the earlier version (and unknowingly making me realise I could avoid a ward split in Coventry).  Bedworth and North Warwickshire: 74,124 - takes Arley & Whitacre and Hartshill from Nuneaton, thus incorporating all of North Warwickshire council. Nuneaton: 76,385 - takes Bulkington, Wolvey & Shilton, Revel & Binley Woods, and Woolston & the Lawfords from Rugby (leaving no part of Nuneaton & Bedworth council in Rugby constituency) Coventry North West: 77,745 - significantly revised from earlier draft. Now contains Bablake, Foleshill, Holbrook, Radford, Sherbourne, St Michael's, and Whoberley (compared to current Cov North West, it's lost Woodlands and gained Foleshill and St Michael's) Coventry East: 73,304 - Binley & WIllenhall, Henley, Longford, Lower Stoke, Upper Stoke, and Wyken (so current Cov North East less Foleshill but plus Binley & Willenhall) Coventry South and Kenilworth: 77,275 - Cheylesmore, Earlsdon, Wainbody, Westwood, and Woodlands from Cov, plus Abbey, Park Hill, and St John's from Warwick district. Rugby and Southam:73,114 - compared to current Rugby seat, gains Dunsmore, Leam Valley, Long Ichington & Stockton, Napton & Fenny Compton, Southam North, Southam South, and Stoneleigh & Cubbington. Warwick and Leamington: 78,259 - adds Arden, Aylesford, Budbrooke, Crown, Harbury, Manor, Newbold, and Radford Semele. Stratford-upon-Avon: 78,377 - adds remaining parts of Kenilworth and Southam Political consequences are, that the sub-region goes from 3 Labour and 5 Tory seats to notionally 2 Labour and 5 Tory. Coventry South and Kenilworth is notionally Conservative, as are all the fully Warwickshire seats. Coventry North West and Coventry East are safe Labour. Labour have a slightly greater chance of picking up Nuneaton, a slightly lower chance of picking up Bedworth & North Warwickshire, and a significantly reduced chance of picking up Rugby or Warwick and Leamington. I suspect that the least change possible option is broadly similar to this outline, probably differing in relatively small details. I'm now going to go away and try a couple of other ideas. If they work out, I'll come back and post them. This one amounts to "dismember Kenilworth and Southam". Next I'm going to try "divorce Warwick and Leamington". |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 11, 2016 18:11:27 GMT
Thats a nice looking plan. I think you've still missed off Brailes and Compton from Stratford but thats easily solved if you put Bishop's Itchington in with Rugby & Southam
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 11, 2016 18:15:07 GMT
Also think I'd put Harbury in with Rugby and Stoneleigh in with Warwick & Leamington
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Post by greenchristian on Mar 11, 2016 19:36:08 GMT
Thats a nice looking plan. I think you've still missed off Brailes and Compton from Stratford but thats easily solved if you put Bishop's Itchington in with Rugby & Southam Thanks.  Also think I'd put Harbury in with Rugby and Stoneleigh in with Warwick & Leamington Yeah, that probably works better. That's a lot of chunks taken out of Coventry. And if you're going to split a ward between Coventry South and Rugby, Binley & Willenhall might be an easier split. Yeah. Seeing as one constituency effectively needs eliminating, and the existing pattern is quite nice in Warwickshire, I went for eliminating Coventry North West. The ward sizes are truly horrible in the City of Coventry, and I'm almost convinced that anything one tries there will be a mess. Please, please, please, Local Government Boundary Commission, divide Coventry into single-member wards next time. I'm really not a fan of single-member wards in urban areas. The smaller wards might make electioneering a bit easier, but assuming no reduction in councillor numbers, it would mean having to find 54 candidates in order to get a full slate. And that would be a right pain. Anyway, I think my revised plan doesn't make a big mess of Coventry. Though my alternative ideas might well do. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Mar 11, 2016 20:02:44 GMT
I like GC's map and agree with Pete's suggested modifications. There's no reason for Warwick & Leamington to take in bits of Stratford district and if the Rugby seat does need bits of Warwick district, Radford Semele is a better idea than Stoneleigh. Still, the major thing is to avoid ward-splitting in Coventry.
Splitting Warwick and Leamington sounds like an appalling idea, incidentally. I'll be interested to see what that looks like.
I've been playing around with the Black Country, and it looks like there's going to be an awful mess if, as I expect, the Commission refuse to split wards. You can get three ugly but workable seats out of Sandwell on its own, there's plenty of viable combinations in Walsall and Wolverhampton isn't too problematic. Dudley, on the other hand, is a complete nightmare, especially around Stourbridge, whereas almost all 7-ward combos are too small and all 8-ward combos too large. You'll have to cross the Dudley-Sandwell border multiple times, and even then it's hard to avoid horrific snake-like constituencies.
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Post by An Sionnach Flannbhuí on Mar 12, 2016 20:10:50 GMT
Here's mischief.
Coventry South and Meriden
Figures from Electoral Calculus
CON LAB LD UKIP G Oth
Cheylesmore 11308 2555 2484 276 906 227 47
Earlsdon 11604 2868 2260 363 450 277 46
Wainbody 10670 3413 2143 447 672 338 251
Westwood 12244 2845 2443 347 1283 244 55
Woodlands 13156 3283 2379 387 1137 182 131
Bickenhill 8941 3398 1112 71 1379 78 4
Meriden 9421 3797 836 73 970 81 4
77344 22159 13657
CON Majority 8502. Leads in all seven wards.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Mar 13, 2016 13:35:46 GMT
Here's mischief.
Coventry South and Meriden
Figures from Electoral Calculus
CON LAB LD UKIP G Oth
Cheylesmore 11308 2555 2484 276 906 227 47
Earlsdon 11604 2868 2260 363 450 277 46
Wainbody 10670 3413 2143 447 672 338 251
Westwood 12244 2845 2443 347 1283 244 55
Woodlands 13156 3283 2379 387 1137 182 131
Bickenhill 8941 3398 1112 71 1379 78 4
Meriden 9421 3797 836 73 970 81 4
77344 22159 13657
CON Majority 8502. Leads in all seven wards.
Not very effective mischief. Good luck selling "Kenilworth and about half of Shirley". |
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