2018 Review - Scotland

[iain]

Apr 29, 2016 17:44:18 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

Apr 29, 2016 16:14:05 GMT iain said:

Looking at the Highlands:

72,352 - 'Caithness, Sutherland, Ross & Skye' - The 7 wards that (approximately) make up CSER plus Dingwall & Seaforth, Wester Ross and Eilean a' Cheò

76,558 - 'Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey' - The 9 wards that (approximately) make up INBS plus Black Isle

76,518 - 'Argyll, Bute & Lochaber' - Argyll & Bute, plus Caol & Mallaig and Fort William & Adnarmurchan, minus Helensburgh & Lomond South

72,650 - 'West Dunbartonshire' - the council area plus Helensburgh & Lomond South

Looks like it probably wouldn't be possible to unite Helensburgh through ward splitting?

My preference would be for Skye and Lochalsh to go with Lochaber and Argyll to avoid joining Black Isle to Inverness (which has no direct land connection to the Black Isle), although this might be a tight squeeze.

Whilst it has no land connection, there is a bridge and it is quite well linked. Meanwhile, a seat stretching from Helensburgh to Skye seems a tad absurd.

[krollo]

Forgive me if this has been mentioned before, but aren't some of these constituencies going to fall under that clause about constituencies over 12,000 sq km? That might make things easier or harder, I haven't really looked into the consequences.

[carlton43]

Apr 29, 2016 17:44:18 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

Apr 29, 2016 16:14:05 GMT iain said:

Looking at the Highlands:

72,352 - 'Caithness, Sutherland, Ross & Skye' - The 7 wards that (approximately) make up CSER plus Dingwall & Seaforth, Wester Ross and Eilean a' Cheò

76,558 - 'Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey' - The 9 wards that (approximately) make up INBS plus Black Isle

76,518 - 'Argyll, Bute & Lochaber' - Argyll & Bute, plus Caol & Mallaig and Fort William & Adnarmurchan, minus Helensburgh & Lomond South

72,650 - 'West Dunbartonshire' - the council area plus Helensburgh & Lomond South

Looks like it probably wouldn't be possible to unite Helensburgh through ward splitting?

My preference would be for Skye and Lochalsh to go with Lochaber and Argyll to avoid joining Black Isle to Inverness (which has no direct land connection to the Black Isle), although this might be a tight squeeze.

Yes there is direct land connection (and indeed road connection) because it isn't an island, and the Kessock Bridge places it firmly in the ambit of Greater Inverness, much more than with the rest of Ross. Skye and Lochalsh are most definitely part of 'our patch' in Ross, whereas Lochaber has as much identity with Argyll as it does with us. We need the numbers and Argyll does not, so the original split is far better. Caithness, Sutherland, Ross and Skye is a real biggie, placing 3 of the largest counties in Britain together in an enormous tract of land, but it will work fine as there is much identity of interest and common feeling.

[carlton43]

Apr 29, 2016 20:11:56 GMT krollo said:

Forgive me if this has been mentioned before, but aren't some of these constituencies going to fall under that clause about constituencies over 12,000 sq km? That might make things easier or harder, I haven't really looked into the consequences.

I was not aware of the 12K rule and wonder if Caithness, Sutherland, Ross and Skye keeps within it? Certainly would need to shed Black Isle and Lochaber to keep within it I think.

[greatkingrat]

Apr 29, 2016 16:14:05 GMT iain said:

Looking at the Highlands:

72,352 - 'Caithness, Sutherland, Ross & Skye' - The 7 wards that (approximately) make up CSER plus Dingwall & Seaforth, Wester Ross and Eilean a' Cheò

This is over 15000 km^2 so is not legal.

[iain]

Apr 29, 2016 21:01:42 GMT greatkingrat said:

Apr 29, 2016 16:14:05 GMT iain said:

Looking at the Highlands:

72,352 - 'Caithness, Sutherland, Ross & Skye' - The 7 wards that (approximately) make up CSER plus Dingwall & Seaforth, Wester Ross and Eilean a' Cheò

This is over 15000 km^2 so is not legal.

Do you know by how much?

[carlton43]

Apr 29, 2016 20:56:26 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

Apr 29, 2016 20:39:27 GMT carlton43 said:

Yes there is direct land connection (and indeed road connection) because it isn't an island, and the Kessock Bridge places it firmly in the ambit of Greater Inverness, much more than with the rest of Ross. Skye and Lochalsh are most definitely part of 'our patch' in Ross, whereas Lochaber has as much identity with Argyll as it does with us. We need the numbers and Argyll does not, so the original split is far better. Caithness, Sutherland, Ross and Skye is a real biggie, placing 3 of the largest counties in Britain together in an enormous tract of land, but it will work fine as there is much identity of interest and common feeling.

I'd argue that Skye's cultural "closeness" with Thurso versus Bute or Lochaber versus Ross is much more speculative and less important than the integrity of Helensburgh.

Frankly, I don't think either matter much to the actual voter. Up here we have vast areas bonded together just to make up numbers , not because people want to go from Thurso to Uig. A voter in Helensburgh just wants a vote in a constituency with other people from round and about. What does it matter if all of, most of or half of Helensburgh is in that seat, except to a few anorak purists like us?  We make too much of all this. All we need to do is avoid overt charges of drawing up seats to distort political integrity and to try and benefit just one party. Here, at the top, we have a very real difficulty of keeping within 12K and having large enough numbers of electors. 

[carlton43]

Apr 29, 2016 21:22:42 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

Does Argyll, Bute, Lochaber & Skye fit within the limit? I would assume not?

Yes, I think that would be within 12K. It is a huge spread but stringy in places and will not bulk up like our top three counties do.

[greenhert]

Will Plan Builder accommodate the constituency area limit as well as electorate limits?

Scottish constituencies are the only ones affected by the rules stating that:

1. Constituencies with an area between 12,000 and 13,000 square kilometres are exempt from the normal electoral parameters that apply to constituencies below 12,000 square kilometres in area.
2. No constituency can have an area larger than 13,000 square kilometres.

[greenhert]

It displayed them in hectares, though, not square kilometres.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Apr 29, 2016 22:17:53 GMT greenhert said:

It displayed them in hectares, though, not square kilometres.

It's hardly the most difficult conversion (1 km² = 100 ha).

[islington]

Yes, I think Aberdeen works fine.

I promised Edinburgh with one ward split and Glasgow with two. Instead of ward names, I'll use the ward numbers supplied by BCS because these seem to be fairly standard and appear on lots of online maps.

GLASGOW:
WEST (or NORTH WEST) - 12, 13, 14 and 11(pt). This would be the westernmost 25% (or so) of ward 11 (Hillhead), which is a long, thin ward so this ought to be a fairly easy split. 74428 (est)
NORTH - 15, 16, 17 and 11(pt). The rest of Hillhead. 73494 (est)
EAST - 18, 20, 21. Remarkable: a seat of only three wards. And there's nothing forced or artificial about it either. 71948
CENTRAL - 9, 10, 19 and 8(pt). This takes about 80% of ward 8 (Southside Central). This is a really tricky split because I want to include everything except a slice in the north east of the ward in the Glasgow Bridge area and extending down the eastern side of the ward as far south as necessary (which I hope won't be too far because this isn't a pretty arrangement). 74983 (est)
SOUTH WEST - 3, 4, 5 and 8(pt). This includes the said awkward slice of ward 8. 74173 (est)
SOUTH - 1, 2, 6, 7. The remaining four wards. 77327

EDINBURGH AND WEST LOTHIAN:
EDINBURGH NORTH AND LEITH - 4, 12, 13, 14. 78096
EDINBURGH SOUTH WEST - 2, 7, 8, 9. 75334
EDINBURGH CENTRAL - 3, 5, 6, 11 and 10(pt). This is a shame because actually the four whole wards would make a perfectly good seat (72294) but for the sake of the following seat I've had to add the northern 20% of ward 10 (Meadows). The shape of the ward should conduce to a relatively straightforward split. 77835 (est)
EDINBURGH SOUTH EAST - 15, 16, 17 and 10(pt). 77338 (est)
LINLITHGOW - Edinburgh ward 1, W Lothian wards 1, 2, 8, 9. 73582
LIVINGSTON - W Lothian wards 3, 4, 5, 6, 7. 74322

Just a first Sassenach stab, so don't be too severe - I'm sure it can be improved.

[islington]

ntyuk1707 - 

You want the good news or the bad news?

The bad news is that I've gone onto the zombie Plan Builder to check the area of your Argyll & Skye seat and I make it 13558 sq km even without the Lochalsh bit. Sorry.

Since Skye is 1798 sq km by itself (with an extra 1487 sq km for Lochalsh if the Wester Ross ward is divided in the same place as in the zombie), it would also make the Caithness &c seat too extensive, so I imagine Skye will have to go into an Inverness seat as the BCS had it in the zombie review.

The good news (which may well now be irrelvant in view of the knock-on consequences of the foregoing) is that if you want to (and I'm not sure whether it matters in view of BCS's stated policy) you can get rid of the ward split in your Aberdeenshire seats, which you had as: 

East Aberdeenshire - 81,077 [minus Meldrum, Bourtie & Daviot and Belhevie Community Councils]

West Aberdeenshire - 69,793 [plus Meldrum, Bourtie & Daviot and Belhevie Community Councils]

Compared with your plan, put the whole of Mid Formartine in East, plus East Garioch; and switch Turriff and Troup into West (which brings the West seat right down to the north coast - I'm not sure whether that matters). This gives West 76968, East 73902. (If preferred, you could put Inverurie in East instead of E Garioch; this gives West 75763, East 75107.)

[islington]

I've been looking at the knock-on consequences of including Skye with Inverness.

I think it's reasonable to assume that this means that Nairn goes in with Moray, which then comes in just within the upper limit at 78477.

This means in turn that Banff is treated with Aberdeenshire, which actually works out OK-ish with the "Aberdeen Angus" area coming out as follows. I'll use the ward numbers again.

WEST ABERDEENSHIRE - Wards 1, 2, 7, 10, 11, 13, 14, 15. Now with quite a substantial northern coastline including Banff. 77045

EAST ABERDEENSHIRE - Wards 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 12. 73902

KINCARDINE AND ARBROATH - Abs wards 16, 17, 18, 19; Angus wards 6, 7, 8. Or it could be 'South Aberdeenshire and Arbroath'. 76952

FORFAR - The rest of Angus and wards 1 and 6 of Dundee. Not a pretty seat, but we've all seen worse. 76693

DUNDEE - The rest of Dundee. 77612

All within range and (if it matters in Scotland) no ward splits, plus this arrangement means that there's no need to disturb Ntyuk's very satisfactory pattern in Fife and Perth.

You can still do the Inverurie switch if you want, in which case East and West Abs come in at 75107 and 75840 respectively.

[islington]

I’ve been working my way around Scotland and I’ve come up with some ideas I’d like to share.


Scotland gets 53 seats. Of these:


• Protected island seats are effectively out of play (2 seats)

• Aberdeen (2), Glasgow (6) and Edinburgh / W Lothian (6) were the subject of posts the other day (14 seats)

• I’m very happy to defer to Ntyuk’s excellent suggestions for boundaries in Fife / Perth (5), Clacks / Falkirk (2), Borders / Midlothian (2). His Fife is particularly good, keeping all the main towns together with no ward splits. (I might have reservations about some of the names but I won’t go into that now.) So that’s another 9 seats disposed of.

• I also like Piperdave’s plan for Ayrshire (plus two wards of Inverclyde). (But to fit with the other seats I might call it ‘North Ayrshire and Gourock’ rather than ‘Clyde Coast’) (4 seats)

• I posted my ideas for the ‘Aberdeen Angus’ area earlier today. This is the second version, based on the assumption that Banff will be treated with Aberdeenshire rather than Moray. (5 seats)

• And like everyone else, I think E Lothian should get a seat to itself. (1 seat)


That leaves 18 seats. As before, I’ll use the ward numbers. I’ll make it clear when I’ve split a ward, and roughly how many electors there should be on each side of the line.


And before anyone asks why I’ve split wards in Scotland, when I am so reluctant to do it in England: the explanation is that I’m equally loth to split wards in both countries, but the difference is that I could (almost) always find a reasonable way of avoiding it in England, whereas I couldn’t in Scotland. But I’ll keep trying.


Here goes (takes deep breath):


MORAY AND NAIRN – Moray district and ward 19 of Highland. 78477


INVERNESS – Well, I’m struggling here. This seat and the following one are intended to cover the whole of Highland except for wards 12, 19 and 22. This area has 148392 electors, so in principle it should readily divide into two but careful handling will be needed because of the 13000 sq km limit. In practice I’m assuming that the BCS’s double-split fudge from the zombie review will probably work again. I’m also assuming that the areas split off from wards 6 and 13 will roughly cancel out in terms of electors, as they did last time (3086 v 3122) – the reason for the splits was to balance areas rather than numbers. On this basis – 75850 (est)


NORTHERN SCOTLAND – All right, I admit the name is pitchfork bait (or claymore bait) but I dislike the kind of ‘catalogue name’ that I’m sure we’ll end up with. I’m assuming the same boundary as in the zombie review. See the previous seat for notes on the estimated electorate. 72542 (est)


ARGYLL – Highland wards 12 and 22 and all of Argyll & Bute except ward 11. I know this trims some southern suburbs off Helensburgh but the bulk of the town is clearly in the seat. 74624


WEST DUNBARTONSHIRE – The whole district plus ward 11 of Argyll. 72650


EAST DUNBARTONSHIRE – The whole district except for a ward split in either ward 4 or ward 9 (one or the other, not both). The aim of the split should be to take out say 4000 voters whilst doing as little damage as possible to the town of Kirkintilloch, which I hope it will be possible to keep wholly within the seat. 78127 (est)


STIRLING – The whole district plus the said 4000 voters from E Duns and ward 1 of N Lanarks. I’m particularly unhappy about this seat, which is a complete mash-up (and if the triborough rule applies to Scottish districts, I’ve just broken it). 77036 (est)


COATBRIDGE – N Lanarks wards 5, 6, 9, 10, 13, 14. I’m very pleased to keep Coatbridge together. 74263


AIRDRIE AND CUMBERNAULD – N Lanarks wards 2, 3, 4, 7, 8 and part of 11. Ditto Airdrie: it is necessary to take about 3000 electors out of the ward of Airdie S but the ward contains a substantial rural area so it should be possible to keep the boundary well away from the town itself (Chapelhall seems a plausible candidate for removal). 77034 (est)


MOTHERWELL – N Lanarks wards 12, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19 and part of 11. 75276 (est)


HAMILTON – N Lanarks ward 20; S Lanarks wards 1, 17, 19, 20 and part of 18. We need to remove say 7000 votes from ward 18, and this will unfortunately entail separating some peripheral areas of Hamilton. Sorry. 76433 (est)


RUTHERGLEN - S Lanarks wards 11, 12, 13, 15, 15, 16 and part of 18. 75716 (est)


EAST KILBRIDE – S Lanarks wards 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10. 72689


CLYDESDALE AND ANNANDALE – S Lanarks wards 2, 3, 4; D&G wards 8, 11, 12, 13. 72353


DUMFRIES AND GALLOWAY – The rest of D&G; all right, it’s an ugly boundary with the preceding seat around Dumfries, but it keeps the town itself wholly within this seat without ward splits. 73875


SOUTH EAST RENFREWSHIRE – The whole of E Renfrew district except ward 2; Renfrewshire wards 7 and 8. 77180


PAISLEY AND RENFREW – E Renfrew ward 2; Renfrewshire wards 1, 2, 3, 5, 6 and part of 4. We need to split off a relatively small number of voters (2000?) from ward 4 (Paisley NW) – presumably the Glasgow Airport area, keeping well away from the town centre. 78300 (est)


NORTH WEST RENFREWSHIRE – Renfrewshire wards 9, 10, 11 and part of 4; Inverclyde wards 1, 2, 3 and 4. (It seems odd to split Greenock from Gourock; in fact, you could call this seat ‘Greenock’ at a push.) 75505 (est).


Ward split count - 9: E Duns (1), Edinburgh (1), Glasgow (2), Highland (2), N Lanarks (1), Renfrew (1) S Lanarks (1). I’ll keep trying to reduce this further but realistically, several will survive.


That's it. All thoughts welcome.

[greenhert]

I am still waiting for Plan Builder to update itself so I can create notional Scottish constituencies....

[kevinlarkin]

May 5, 2016 19:51:20 GMT greenhert said:

I am still waiting for Plan Builder to update itself so I can create notional Scottish constituencies....

I wasn't aware of the BCS update until I saw this post. Plan Builder is not self-updating but it will be updated in due course.

[ajthomson]

Now that the figures are out, I've returned to the proposal I made earlier in this thread. It's closer to the zombie review in a lot of places, partly because not everything in that review was bad. I liked the abolition of DCT as a seat, and the re-establishment of seats based on the valleys of the Annan and the upper Clyde; for once Hamilton wasn't divided between seats; the East Renfrewshire solution got round the problem of having to split either Paisley or Johnstone; and there was more logic to the Renfrewshire South/Ayrshire North seat than might have appeared to be the case on paper (principally travel routes). The one thing I had a serious problem with was the interdict on seats comprising parts of more than two council areas, but as the BCS actually reneged on that in one of their revised proposals (the Perthshire East/Angus West seat) I am taking the line that there is a precedent for more such seats should they be required. So here goes.

I've grouped the councils along the lines I mentioned in my earlier post, viz.:
1. Aberdeen 2.00 (2)
2. Aberdeenshire, Angus, Dundee 5.11 (5)
3. Argyll and Bute, Highland, Moray 4.11 (4)
4. Clackmannanshire, Fife 4.08 (4)
5. Dumfries and Galloway, East Ayrshire, South Ayrshire 3.87 (4)
6. East Dunbartonshire, West Dunbartonshire 1.99 (2)
7. East Lothian 1.02 (1)
8. Edinburgh, West Lothian 6.11 (6)
9. Glasgow 5.96 (6)
10. Midlothian, Scottish Borders 2.01 (2)
and the horror
11. East Renfrewshire, Falkirk, Inverclyde, North Ayrshire, North Lanarkshire, Perth and Kinross, Renfrewshire, South Lanarkshire, Stirling 15.11 (15)

The horror is (I hope) slightly less ghastly than it looks. In practice it would comprise:
11a. Falkirk, Perth and Kinross, Stirling, and one ward (Kilsyth) from North Lanarkshire. Kilsyth is historically part of Stirlingshire. 3.96 (4)
11b. Inverclyde, North Ayrshire, Renfrewshire, and one and a half wards (the Neilston/Uplawmoor part of Neilston, Uplawmoor and Newton Mearns North; and Barrhead) from East Renfrewshire. The East Renfrewshire bits (hereafter 'Greater Barrhead') used to be part of Renfrew district in the days of Strathclyde Regional Council. c.4.01 (4)
11c. East Renfrewshire (minus Greater Barrhead), North Lanarkshire (minus Kilsyth), South Lanarkshire. c.7.14 (7)

1. Aberdeen.

Aberdeen North (c.75,555): Aberdeen wards 1–6, northern part of 7 as per zombie review.

Aberdeen South (c.74,680): the rest of Aberdeen.


2. Aberdeenshire, Angus, Dundee.

Banff and Buchan (77,582): Aberdeenshire 1–7, 9.

Gordon and Deeside (c.74,821): Aberdeenshire 8, 10–15, part of 16 (PDs Kincardine O’Neil, Birse, Finzean, Strachan). This almost replicates the old Aberdeenshire/Kincardineshire boundary.

Angus North and Kincardine (c.78,361): Aberdeenshire rest of 16, 17–19; Angus part of 1 (Kirriemuir), 2–3, 8.

Angus South and Broughty Ferry (c.75,123): Angus part of 1 (Dean), 4–7; Dundee 6, 8. So Dundee East is essentially extended eastwards to pick up Arbroath.

Dundee West (76,317): Dundee 1–5, 7.


3. Argyll and Bute, Highland, Moray
More or less as per the zombie review, but with tweaks to take account of relatively larger size of population growth in Inverness-shire than elsewhere.

Caithness, Sutherland, Ross and Cromarty (c.73,556): Highland 1–5, most of 6 (not Lochalsh as per zombie review), 7–10, part of 13 (as per zombie review, plus Kirkhill PD). It is a simple way of getting the seat up to quota without greatly increasing the physical area (which given that the zombie CSR&C was over 12,800 km2 is obviously imperative).

Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber (c.77,485): Argyll and Bute district; Highland part of 12 (Caol, as per zombie review, plus Kilmallie PD), 22. This gets Inverness & Skye down to within quota, and doesn't greatly increase the physical area.

Moray and Nairn (78,477): Moray district; Highland 19.

Inverness and Skye (c.77,899): Highland part of 6 (Lochalsh), 11, rest of 12, rest of 13, 14–18, 20–21.


4. Clackmannanshire and Fife.
More or less as per the zombie review, the disadvantages of splitting Dunfermline notwithstanding.

Clackmannanshire and Dunfermline West (c.78,112): Clackmannanshire; Fife 1–2, western half of 3, 7.

Dunfermline East (c.78,439): Fife eastern half of 3, 4–6, 8–10.

Kirkcaldy and Burntisland (c.75,441): Fife 11–16, part of 23 (Buckhaven, Wemyss Villages).

Fife East (c.73,136): Fife 17–22, part of 23 (Methil).


5. Dumfries and Galloway, East Ayrshire and South Ayrshire.

Dumfries (c.72,536): D&G part of 6 (Cargenbridge, Troqueer, New Abbey PDs), 7–13.

Kilmarnock and Loudoun (71,101): East Ayrshire 1–7.

Ayr (c.72,645): South Ayrshire 1–6, northern part of 7 (Annbank, Coylton, Minishant).

Galloway and South Ayrshire (c.73,249): D&G 1–5, rest of 6; East Ayrshire 8–9; South Ayrshire rest of 8, 9. This is a 3-council seat, but since the two Ayrshire parts have been in the same seat for decades it seems silly to split them (and to divide Ayr in the process).


6. East and West Dunbartonshire.

Dunbartonshire East (71,846): East Dunbartonshire minus ward 1.

Dunbartonshire West (77,006): West Dunbartonshire council, East Dunbartonshire 1.
Yes, there's no road link between Milngavie and West Dunbartonshire. This wasn't a problem before 1983, and I don't see why it should be a problem now. If it is, then move as much or as little of Bearsden North to West Dunbartonshire instead to keep both seats within quota.


7. East Lothian 1.02 (1)

East Lothian (76,153): East Lothian council.

(rest to follow in separate post)

[ajthomson]

8. Edinburgh, West Lothian 6.11 (6)
This is slightly different from some of the other proposals, though not radically so.

Edinburgh North West (c.78,239): Edinburgh 3, most of 4 (not the 3 eastern PDs around Trinity), most of 5 (but not the north-eastern Inverleith PD), 6, 11 (north of Princes Street/Shandwick Place).

Edinburgh South West (75,334): Edinburgh 2, 7–9.

Edinburgh South East (c.78,360): Edinburgh 10, rest of 11 (i.e., the Old Town), 15–16, part of 17 (Craigmillar, Bingham).

Edinburgh East and Leith (c.76,520): rest of 4 (Trinity), rest of 5 (Inverleith), 12–14, rest of 17.

Linlithgow (73,582): Edinburgh 1; West Lothian 1–2, 8–9.

Livingston (74,322): West Lothian 3–7.


9. Glasgow 5.96 (6)
An arrangement that is closer to the zombie review.

Glasgow North West (c.72,920): Glasgow 12 (west of Crow Road), 13–15.

Glasgow North East (c.73,201): Glasgow 16–17, part of 18 (certinaly north of Alexandra Parade/Edinburgh Road, plus parts of Carntyne south of Edinburgh Road), 21. The exact division of ward 18 is tricky to do without very detailed data, and unfortunately I don’t have it.

Glasgow East (c.72,985): Glasgow 9, rest of 18, 19–20.

Glasgow Central (c.72,889): Glasgow most of 5 (excluding Drumoyne, Bellahouston), 10–11, 12 (east of Crow Road).

Glasgow South West (c.77,290): Glasgow part of 2 (Carnwadric PD), 3–4, rest of 5, 6.

Glasgow South East (c.77,068): Glasgow 1, rest of 2, 7–8.


10. Midlothian, Scottish Borders 2.01 (2)

Midlothian and Tweeddale (c. 77,075): Midlothian council; Scottish Borders 1, part of 2 (Peebles, Traquair, Cardrona).

Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk (c.73,561): Scottish Borders council, minus wards 1 and parts of 2 in Midlothian and Tweeddale. Basically, it gains Innerleithen and Walkerburn.


11a. Falkirk, North Lanarkshire (Kilsyth), Perth and Kinross, Stirling 3.96 (4)

Perth and North Perthshire (72,831): P&K 1–5, 10–12.

Stirlingshire and South Perthshire (c.72,747): P&K 6–9; Stirling 1–3, most of 4 (Cornton, Logie, Raploch and Cambuskenneth PDs), part of 5 (Cambusbarron PD). The division of Castle is by the river Forth, except for Raploch, which had to be added to make up the numbers (unfortunate but this area is hard). The Cambusbarron PD straddles the M9 (unfortunate, as it's an obvious way of splitting the ward), but it is needed to make up the numbers.

Stirling and Strathcarron (c.76,087): Falkirk 3–5; North Lanarkshire 1; Stirling rest of 4, rest of 5, 6–7. Another 3-council seat, but socially it probably works quite well.

Falkirk (74,092): Falkirk 1–2, 6–9.


11b. East Renfrewshire (Greater Barrhead), Inverclyde, North Ayrshire, Renfrewshire 4.01 (4)

Ayrshire Central and Arran (c.77,898): North Ayrshire 1–5, most of 6 (excludes 3 polling districts just north of Dalry).

Inverclyde and Ayrshire North (c.76,148): all of Inverclyde except the Kilmacolm parts of ward 1; North Ayrshire 6 (3 polling districts mentioned above), 7–8. I can't say I altogether like the shape of this, but it keeps Greenock, Gourock and Port Glasgow together.

Paisley and Renfrew (c.71,701): Renfrewshire 1–6, part of 7 (Elderslie only).

Renfrewshire West (c.73,371): East Renfrewshire part of 1 (Neilston, Uplawmoor), 2; Inverclyde 1 (Kilmacolm only); Renfrewshire part of 7 (excluding Elderslie), 8–11. Another 3-council seat, but given Kilmacolm's close social links with Bridge of Weir not as bad as it might seem.


11c. East Renfrewshire (minus Greater Barrhead), North Lanarkshire (minus Kilsyth), South Lanarkshire 7.14 (7).

Cumbernauld and Coatbridge North (c.76,549): North Lanarkshire 2–6, part of 9 (not quite worked out where yet).

Airdrie and Coatbridge South (c.76,557): North Lanarkshire 7–8, rest of 9, 10–12, 15.

Motherwell, Bellshill and Wishaw (75,857): North Lanarkshire 14, 16–20. Motherwell and Wishaw are thus kept together.

Hamilton (74,939): North Lanarkshire 13; South Lanarkshire 15–19. Hamilton is kept in one seat.

Clydesdale and Larkhall (75,404): South Lanarkshire 1–5, 20 (as per zombie review).

Rutherglen and East Kilbride North (c.76,351): South Lanarkshire part of 7 (PDs SL065, SL066, SL067), 8, 10–14.

Eastwood and East Kilbride South (c.78,448): East Renfrewshire 1 (Newton Mearns North), 3–6; South Lanarkshire 6, part of 7 (PDs SL064, SL068), 9.

I don’t like splitting East Kilbride at all, but there is a way round that if the Glasgow boundary is crossed and the last two seats are redrawn in conjunction with Glasgow South East as follows:

Eastwood and Cathcart (c.77,573): East Renfrewshire 1 (Newton Mearns North), 3–6; Glasgow part of 1 (Old Cathcart, Simshill), most of 2 (minus Carnwadric as before), part of 7 (Cathcart and Langside PDs).

Glasgow South East and Rutherglen (c.78,298): Glasgow rest of 7 (Battlefield, Mount Florida, King’s Park), 8; South Lanarkshire 11–14.

East Kilbride and Castlemilk (c.75,997): Glasgow rest of 1 (Castlemilk, Croftfoot, Carmunnock, Glenwood); South Lanarkshire 6–10.

As this arrangement crosses the Glasgow city boundary it would never happen in practice, but it has the advantage of not splitting East Kilbride, placing Eastwood in a seat with socially similar areas in Glasgow like Newlands and Cathcart, and acknowledging the continuity of built-up areas between Rutherglen and south-east Glasgow rather than linking it with areas from which they are separated by countryside.

[islington]

May 5, 2016 21:16:31 GMT kevinlarkin said:

May 5, 2016 19:51:20 GMT greenhert said:

I am still waiting for Plan Builder to update itself so I can create notional Scottish constituencies....

I wasn't aware of the BCS update until I saw this post. Plan Builder is not self-updating but it will be updated in due course.

And we can't thank you enough. It's a wonderful tool.