2018 Review - Scotland

[Davıd Boothroyd]

A bit annoying we don't have ward Parliamentary electorate stats.

[No Offence Alan]

Feb 24, 2016 18:51:50 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

Entitlement of 53 seats (including two permanent constituencies in Orkney and Shetland and Na h-Eileanan an Iar).

Possible Boundary Review areas:

• Argyll and Bute, East Renfrewshire, Inverclyde, Renfrewshire and West Dunbartonshire: 5.2 (5)
  

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I don't see how that would work with 1.8 quotas North of the Clyde and 3.4 South, unless you resurrected the "Clydebank and North Renfrewshire" monstrosity from the zombie Scottish review.
More likely, Lochaber could be added to Argyll (subject to 13,000 km² limit) or some of East Dunbartonshire included. Maybe the Ayrshire boundary with Inverclyde/Renfrewshire could be crossed too.

[Clarko]

Feb 25, 2016 13:04:20 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

I'm not too convinced that the 'Clydebank and North Renfrewshire' constituency is so much of a monstrosity on the grand-scheme of things, given the fact that the seat has good transport links and similar demographics on the whole.

I think we put in a Vote UK submission that this be called "Clyde Banks" in a fond tribute to the now likely defunct "Mersey Banks" in the North West.

[Deleted]

www.bcomm-scotland.independent.gov.uk/2018_westminster/resources.asp

[finsobruce]

Feb 25, 2016 13:11:44 GMT Clarko said:

Feb 25, 2016 13:04:20 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

I'm not too convinced that the 'Clydebank and North Renfrewshire' constituency is so much of a monstrosity on the grand-scheme of things, given the fact that the seat has good transport links and similar demographics on the whole.

I think we put in a Vote UK submission that this be called "Clyde Banks" in a fond tribute to the now likely defunct "Mersey Banks" in the North West.

Is there any way we could include Malcolm Bruce's old seat and call it "Gordon Banks" ?

[piperdave]

Feb 24, 2016 19:00:58 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

A bit annoying we don't have ward Parliamentary electorate stats.

I have made an FOI request for the figures, and suggested this become a standard output in future years. I'll let you all know when I get them.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

There are ward statistics for the local electorate: www.nrscotland.gov.uk/files//statistics/electoral-stats/1-dec-15/16electoral-stats-table6.xlsx

[piperdave]

Two of those constituencies are below the minimum electorate and that's before getting the parliamentary figures which will be lower than the local electorates. You're going to have to revisit those.

And there is NO way I'm going to let Hamilton be butchered like that! I'll work on my own proposals once I get the response to my FOI request.

[No Offence Alan]

Feb 25, 2016 18:47:32 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

Feb 25, 2016 15:03:49 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

2. East Renfrewshire and Johnstone (Busby, Clarkston and Eaglesham; Giffnock and Thornliebank; Johnstone North, Kilbarchan and Lochwinnoch; Johnstone South, Elderslie and Howwood; Neilston, Uplawmoor and Newton Mearns North [part?]; Netherlee, Stamperland and Williamwood; Newton Mearns South)

While this constituency works nicely (in that no towns are split through the constituency's creation) there are minimal transport links between the East Renfrewhshire section of the constituency and Johnstone side of the seat without crossing into Paisley.

Well, that happens with the South Renfrewshire seat for Holyrood already. That contains Linwood, Johnstone, some rural bits and Barrhead.

[ajthomson]

An alternative grouping that is closer to the zombie review in some respects:

Same groupings as zombie review:
Aberdeen: 2.06 (2)
Argyll/Highland/Moray: 4.11 (4)
Clacks/Fife: 4.08 (4)
D&G/E Ayrshire/S Ayrshire: 3.87 (4)
East Lothian: 1.02 (1)
Glasgow: 5.97 (6)
Midlothian/Borders: 2.03 (2)

Combining zombie review groupings:
Inverclyde/N Ayrshire/Renfrewshire: 3.77
E Renfrewshire/S Lanarkshire: 4.15
N Lanarkshire minus Kilsyth: approx. 3.21
Total: 11.14 (11)
Barrhead, Neilston and Uplawmoor would be moved from an East Renfrewshire seat to the Inverclyde/N Ayrshire/Renfrewshire group.
Thorniewood would be moved into a South Lanarkshire seat.

More significant changes from zombie review:
Aberdeenshire/Angus/Dundee: 5.06 (5)
E Dunbarton/W Dunbarton: 1.99 (2)
Edinburgh/W Lothian: 6.12 (6)
Falkirk/P&K/Stirling + Kilsyth: approx. 3.95 (4)

SEATS
Aberdeen: as per zombie review
Argyll/Highland/Moray: as per zombie review
Clacks/Fife: as per zombie review
D&G/E Ayrshire/S Ayrshire: I prefer an Ayr seat that includes Troon and Prestwick; and a Galloway and South Ayrshire seat that includes Galloway, Carrick and Cumnock. It breaks the rule of no more than two council areas, but the BCS broke their own rule in their revised proposals for Angus/Dundee/P&K in the zombie review, so I don't consider myself bound by it. Dumfries may need to be enlarged; Kilmarnock can remain unchanged.
East Lothian: unchanged
Glasgow: Glasgow South will probably need to be reduced (perhaps by moving the south-western part of Newlands/Auldearn into Glasgow South West), otherwise the seats can probably be kept roughly as per the zombie review
Midlothian/Borders: I can see the logic in transferring Galashiels, but I'd prefer a Midlothian and Tweeddale arrangement. So I'd move the non-Peebles parts of Tweeddale East into Berwickshire Roxburgh & Selkirk.

Lanarkshire/Renfrewshire/North Ayrshire

• Cumbernauld and Coatbridge North: Both Cumbernauld wards, Abronhill, Strathkelvin, Coatbridge N, most of Coatbridge W
• Airdrie and Coatbridge South: All three Airdrie wards, Coatbridge S, Fortissat, Mossend, part of Coatbridge W
• Motherwell, Wishaw and Bellshill: All three Motherwell wards, Bellshill, Murdoustoun, Wishaw
• Hamilton: All three Hamilton wards, Blantyre, Bothwell; Thorniewood
  
• Clydesdale and Larkhall: as per zombie review (all four Clydesdale wards, Larkhall, Avondale)
• Rutherglen and East Kilbride North: Both Rutherglen wards, both Cambuslang wards, plus East Kilbride East, Central North, and almost all of Central South
• Eastwood and East Kilbride South: Giffnock, Netherlee, Newton Mearns South, Busby, Newton Mearns North; East Kilbride West, East Kilbride South, a sliver of East Kilbride Central South

and then either:

• Paisley and Renfrew: All four Paisley wards, both Renfrew wards, Linwood
  
• Inverclyde: Inverclyde council, Bishopton, Erskine/Inchinnan
• Renfrewshire South and Ayrshire North: Barrhead, Neilston; Johnstone (both wards), Houston, Bridge of Weir; Kilbirne/Beith, Dalry, North Coast (another three-council seat)
  
• Ayrshire Central and Arran: as per zombie review plus West Kilbride

or

• Paisley and Renfrewshire North: Inverclyde East; Bishopton/Bridge of Weir, Houston/Linwood, Erskine/Inchinnan, Paisley NW, both Renfrew wards
  
• Paisley and Renfrewshire South: Paisley E, Paisley S, Paisley SW, both Johnstone wards; Barrhead, Neilston
• Inverclyde: Inverclyde council, North Coast, West Kilbride, Ardrossan and Arran
• Ayrshire Central: Both Irvine wards, Kilwinning, Saltcoats/Stevenston, Kilbirnie/Beith, Dalry

Aberdeenshire/Angus/Dundee

• Banff and Buchan: Banff, Troup, Fraserburgh, C Buchan, both Peterhead wards, Turriff, Ellon
  
• Gordon and Deeside: both Garioch wards, Mid Formartine, Inverurie, Huntly, Westhill, Aboyne, part of Banchory (the Mid Deeside bit)
  
• Angus North and Kincardine: Banchory town, N Kincardine, Stonehaven, Mearns; Montrose, Brechin, Forfar, Kirriemuir
• Angus South and Dundee East: Both Arbroath wards, Carnoustie, Monifieth/Sidlaw; North East, The Ferry
• Dundee West: rest of Dundee as per zombie review

Dunbartonshire

• Dunbartonshire East: council area minus Bearsden North (or part of Bearsden North, or Milngavie)
  
• Dunbartonshire West: council area plus Bearden North (or part of Bearsden North, or Milngavie)

Edinburgh/West Lothian

• Edinburgh East and Leith: Leith Walk, Leith, Craigentinny/Duddingston, Portobello/Craigmillar
  
• Edinburgh North West: Drum Brae/Gyle, Forth, Inverleith, Corstorphine/Murrayfield
• Edinburgh South: Meadows/Morningside, City Centre, Southside/Newington, Liberton/Gilmerton
  
• Edinburgh South West: Pentland Hills, Sighthill/Gorgie, Colinton/Fairmilehead, Fountainbridge/Craiglockhart
  
• Linlithgow: Linlithgow, Broxburn, Bathgate, Armadale, Almond
  
• Livingston: All three Livingston wards, Fauldhouse, Whitburn/Blackburn

I doubt the numbers for the Edinburgh seats will quite fit, but it should work overall with minor adjustments. If the New Town (which is in City Centre) were logically moved to North West there'd have to be some adjustments elsewhere (e.g., Trinity to East/Leith, Craigmillar to South, or something like that).

Falkirk, P&K, Stirling, Kilsyth

• Perth and North Perthshire: P&K council minus Strathearn, Strathallan, Almond/Earn, Kinross (i.e., essentially the current seat, give or take a bit)
  
• Stirlingshire and South Perthshire: the four P&K wards listed above, plus Trossachs/Teith, Forth/Endrick, Dunblane/Bridge of Allan, Stirling West
  
• Stirling and Kilsyth: Castle, Stirling East, Bannockburn, Kilsyth, Denny/Banknock, Carse/Kinnaird/Tryst, Bonnybridge/Larbert (another three-council seat)
  
• Falkirk and Grangemouth: Bo'ness, Grangemouth, the two Falkirk wards, the two Braes wards

This arrangement splits the town of Stirling, but it's hard to find a way of not doing so without coming up with truly horrendous arrangements (e.g. a cross-Kincardine Bridge seat that links Dunfermline and Grangemouth).

All this depends on the ward figures, of course: the devil is in the detail.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

I tweeted the Boundary Commission for Scotland to ask about the ward Parliamentary electorates, and their response was "Hi David - we are working on the data and hope to publish within next couple of weeks."

[Harry Hayfield]

Feb 29, 2016 9:35:35 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

I tweeted the Boundary Commission for Scotland to ask about the ward Parliamentary electorates, and their response was "Hi David - we are working on the data and hope to publish within next couple of weeks."

And confirmed in a phone call to them just now. It turns out they've been reviewing the local government areas as well as this has caused a "weeks" delay although the person I spoke to suggested "several" weeks as opposed to "couple of" weeks.

[afleitch]

Much of the problem in recent reviews has been ensuring that Airdrie and Coatbridge are kept apart. If they can get over that, you could save a few splits the further south you go.

[Sibboleth]

They were combined for something like a century until 1983 of course. Boundary doodlers in recent decades - and this is true of ward boundaries as well - have been overkeen to accept 'local rivalry' as meaningful IMO.

[iain]

Any news on the release of ward electorates here?

[piperdave]

Apr 10, 2016 0:35:05 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

Feb 26, 2016 9:19:05 GMT piperdave said:

Two of those constituencies are below the minimum electorate and that's before getting the parliamentary figures which will be lower than the local electorates. You're going to have to revisit those.

And there is NO way I'm going to let Hamilton be butchered like that! I'll work on my own proposals once I get the response to my FOI request.

I've been working on the boundaries based on local electorates and one neat option is to group Hamilton with Motherwell, moving Wishaw in with Airdrie and Shotts. Hopefully we will be getting the parliamentary electorates soon though!

That would be controversial in and of itself given how long Motherwell & Wishaw has been a consituency (from being a united burgh back in the day). And not everyone in Hamilton would welcome the idea of being joined with Motherwell for anything. BUT they are neighbours, do have enough in common, have good transport links and if it stops them being fragmented across constituencies, that's good too.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Late but welcome

[iain]

About time

[greenhert]

Exactly. When will Plan Builder update itself in light of this newly released electorate data for Scotland? Due to the large size of STV wards in Scotland especially in large cities, split wards will be inevitable in some constituencies.

[iain]

These numbers look like they may end up with a bit of a mess. One obvious thing to note is that Edinburgh will have to have a bit split off / added on.