2018 review - East Midlands

[YL]

That looks pretty good, but I think you mean "West Nottinghamshire" as your alternative for Hucknall. (I prefer "Hucknall & Eastwood", though.)

I was going to put the west of Rushcliffe in the cross-border seat, put West Bridgford itself into a constituency with southern parts of Nottingham (Clifton and wards along the river) into a seat I was going to call Nottingham Trent Bridge, and the eastern parts of Rushcliffe into what was going to be a rather long and thin Newark along the eastern edge of the county. I was running into some awkwardly shaped seats in the rest of the county, though.

[Pete Whitehead]

I'll jump in here with a Northants & Rutland plan. I wanted to avoid Rutland & Corby not only cos its hideous in it's own right, but it also causes problems further along





East Northamptonshire & Rutland – Rutland district, East Northants district less the 5 Rushden wards and 3 rural Corby wards – 77,681
Kettering & Corby – The nine remaining Corby wards, the 10 wards covering the town of Kettering and the Queen Eleanor & Buccleuch ward – 77,349
Wellingborough – the five Rushden wards, the Burton Latimer ward of Kettering and the whole of Wellingborough district less Harrowden & Sywell – 77,124
Daventry & Desborough– the remainder of Kettering district, the whole of Daventry district less Weedon and Woodford. 72,302
South Northamptonshire – Weedon and Woodford plus the whole of South Northamptonshire district less Harpole & Grange and Grange Park
Northampton North - Northampton wards of: Abington, Boothville, Brookside, Eastfield, Headlands, Kings Heath, Kingsley, Kingsthorpe, Obelisk, Park, Parklands, Phippsville, Rectory Farm, Semilong, Spencer, Spring Park, St David's, Sunnyside, Talavera, Trinity, Westone - 72,324
Northampton South Northampton wards of : Billing, Castle, Delapre and Briar Hill, East Hunsbury, Nene Valley, New Duston, Old Duston, Riverside, Rushmills, St James, Upton, West Hunsbury. South Northants wards of Harpole & Grange and Grange Park - 72,324

(Hows that for electoral equality between the two Northampton seats )

[East Anglian Lefty]

Presumably that's with the new wards in Northampton? Does that make the boundary look a little cleaner? In particular, Billing looks a little isolated on the map.

Also, what's the electorate of South Northants?

[Pete Whitehead]

Slightly cleaner perhaps but the ward in question (Riverside) is fairly cut off. I wanted to swap it with Abington for that reason but that has twice as many electors so that pushes North below quota. I might have a little further play to see if I can avoid that. It's tricky when working with new wards and having to keep cross-checking

[Pete Whitehead]

If you move Riverside and Rushmills from South to North and Kings Heath and Spencer the other way that works with the numbers and looks a bit more coherent. I think you can still get away with calling the seats North and South rather than East and West.

[East Anglian Lefty]

Yes, I think that's a definite improvement. How about the electorate of South Northants? I've just wondering if it's possible to add a ward or two to Daventry - in general, I think it's best to avoid having constituencies where the population centre(s) are right on the edge of the seat.

[YL]

Mar 9, 2016 20:22:07 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

If you move Riverside and Rushmills from South to North and Kings Heath and Spencer the other way that works with the numbers and looks a bit more coherent. I think you can still get away with calling the seats North and South rather than East and West.

I think you forgot to move Billing, which was in your original list of wards in South. So you should move Rushmills back to South, and also move Semilong from North to South. I think that gives South 71,905 and North 72,743.

Anyway, nice map, and better than anything you're going to get with Rutland & Corby.

[YL]

Mar 9, 2016 20:42:11 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

Yes, I think that's a definite improvement. How about the electorate of South Northants? I've just wondering if it's possible to add a ward or two to Daventry - in general, I think it's best to avoid having constituencies where the population centre(s) are right on the edge of the seat.

I make it 71,822.

If you want to get one of those two Daventry wards he has in South Northants into Daventry, you could move Bozeat and Wollaston wards from Wellingborough to South Northants, and Harrowden & Sywell from Daventry into Wellingborough; either Weedon or Woodford then comes into Daventry. To get them both in, you'd need to do a bit more than that, possibly moving Earls Barton, which looks a bit ugly.

(Looking at a map, I'm also minded to suggest that Rural West ward of Corby fits better in Daventry than in Rutland & East Northants, in spite of the district boundaries.)

[East Anglian Lefty]

Or you could swap Park and Abington for Billing and Riverside?

[Pete Whitehead]

Mar 9, 2016 20:47:51 GMT YL said:

I think you forgot to move Billing, which was in your original list of wards in South. So you should move Rushmills back to South, and also move Semilong from North to South. I think that gives South 71,905 and North 72,743.
.

Looks like I had Billing in my list for South (and therefore included in the numbers) but had meant for it to be in North, hence why it was on the map. Basically messed up there - like I say difficult when checking against two different ward maps on one screen. BAck to the drawing board there

[Pete Whitehead]

Mar 9, 2016 21:06:20 GMT YL said:

Mar 9, 2016 20:42:11 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

Yes, I think that's a definite improvement. How about the electorate of South Northants? I've just wondering if it's possible to add a ward or two to Daventry - in general, I think it's best to avoid having constituencies where the population centre(s) are right on the edge of the seat.

I make it 71,822.

If you want to get one of those two Daventry wards he has in South Northants into Daventry, you could move Bozeat and Wollaston wards from Wellingborough to South Northants, and Harrowden & Sywell from Daventry into Wellingborough; either Weedon or Woodford then comes into Daventry. To get them both in, you'd need to do a bit more than that, possibly moving Earls Barton, which looks a bit ugly.

(Looking at a map, I'm also minded to suggest that Rural West ward of Corby fits better in Daventry than in Rutland & East Northants, in spite of the district boundaries.)

I'd take those changes. The reason I moved Rural West was because I'd added the Wellingborough ward and that meant this seat consisted of four districts - originally I had it in Daventry. If we go for your suggested changes that's no longer an issue

[Pete Whitehead]

You'd need to move Earls Barton and Great Doffington. This then leaves Wellingborough undesized and Daventry oversized, especially as we've now added Corby West Rural as well. So you're going to have to put Moulton in with Wellingborough - not ideal as it is now containing parts of four districts with two orphan wards, although it looks quite neat on the map.

Think I've solved Northampton by putting all the Eastern District in North along with Spencer and Kings Heath (these two wards have to be kept together) with South taking Park and Abington

[Pete Whitehead]

So I think I'd go for putting Weedon back in with Daventry but not Woodford. Bozeat and Wollaston to South Northants (logical boundary there along the Nene). HArrowden back with Wellingborugh. Corby Rural West with Daventry. It all works

[East Anglian Lefty]

Out of curiousity, how would Corby & Kettering have voted in 2015 (and 2010 for that matter, if Pete's got the numbers)? It seems an eminently sensible seat to draw on community grounds, but the major objection to it would surely be that it also creates the single strongest Labour seat you can manage in that bit of the world, and anything producing significant partisan advantage normally produces some form of organised complaint.

[Pete Whitehead]

Unfortunately I haven't worked out figures for either year. Maybe I should do Northants next in my series of notionals. I'd guess it would be narrowly Labour, but it's only a guess

[islington]

Well done to YL for spotting my (ahem) deliberate error: yes, I did mean 'West Nottinghamshire' as an alternative name for my suggested 'Hucknall' seat, although I agree on reflection that 'Hucknall and Eastwood' is a better name for it.

I was planning to post something on Leicestershire next, but in view of the recent traffic on Northants, I'll do that instead. I'm offering a different plan to Pete Whitehead that overcomes some of the issues that have been raised, although I accept that it's not an ideal solution either.

Northamptonshire + Rutland = 520926 voters = 6.97 = 7 seats. I'll start in Northampton.

NORTHAMPTON NORTH (75455): Everything north of the Nene and east of the railway line except Castle and Rushmills.

NORTHAMPTON SOUTH (75997): The rest of Northampton; plus, from S Nhants, Blisworth & Roade and Salcey and the three wards to the east of these.

DAVENTRY (71950): The rest of the existing South Northamptonshire seat, plus (from Daventry district) Braunston & Welton, Woodford and the 4 wards of Daventry town itself.

CORBY (71676): Four northern wards of Daventry district (Barby & Kilsby, Long Buckby, Welford, Yelverton); plus (from Kettering) the two Desborough wards, Rothwell, Welland and Queen Eleanor; and the whole of Corby district except Weldon & Gretton.

KETTERING (78030): The two wards of S Nhants district currently in the Daventry seat, plus the remainder of Daventry and Kettering districts.

WELLINGBOROUGH (74126): The whole district plus the 5 Rushden wards of E Nhants.

RUTLAND AND EAST NORTHAMPTONSHIRE (73692): The rest of E Nhants plus Weldon & Gretton plus Rutland. You could call it 'Rutland and Higham Ferrers' if you want a name with more of a Downton Abbey feel to it.

Compared with Pete's plan, I've kept Kettering and Corby as separate seats and I've avoided dividing Wellingborough district, but on the other hand the Corby, Daventry and Kettering seats are not very compact and their eponymous towns are very much at one end of their respecting seats.

Still, it is an alternative if anyone wants to run with it.

[islington]

But what of Leicestershire? (I hear you ask.)

Without Rutland but with voters displaced from Nottinghamshire (see above) we have 736846 electors = 9.85 = 10 seats. I'll start with Leicester itself.

LEICESTER EAST (75755): Unchanged.

LEICESTER SOUTH (72227): Unchanged.

LEICESTER WEST (73898): The current seat plus Fairestone, Ellis and Muxloe wards, all of Blaby district but currently in Charnwood constituency and, I suggest, not really very logically placed in either. They will be more at home in a Leicester West seat.

SOUTH LEICESTERSHIRE (73496): The current seat is actually within range but the extension of Leicester West means that it has to take in Forest ward and the rest of Winstanley; it compensates by losing Stanton & Flamville and Croft Hill.

BOSWORTH (73428): The current seat gains Stanton & Flamville and Croft Hill but loses Barlestone &c, Markfield &c, and Ratby &c. It still contains Market Bosworth so I've kept the name, but really 'Hinckley' would be much better for this seat.

MID LEICESTERSHIRE (71591): This is based on the current Charnwood seat but it loses its elements in Blaby district and gains three wards as above from Bosworth. These changes shift its centre of gravity southwestward, farther away from Charnwood district; hence the change of name.

NORTH WEST LEICESTERSHIRE (71377): Unchanged.

LOUGHBOROUGH (74069): Unchanged.

HARBOROUGH (74967): Unchanged.

MELTON AND BINGHAM (76218): This is the Leicestershire part of the current Rutland and Melton seat, compensated for the loss of Rutland by the 29578 electors left over from Notts.

[YL]

Now I've checked it on Boundary Assistant, here's my attempt at Notts. There are a few things I'm not entirely happy with, of course.

The cross border seat is Melton Mowbray & Keyworth (73,947). Its Notts component is the west of Rushcliffe district, from Nevile & Langar and Tollerton westwards, excluding West Bridgford. West Bridgford itself joins five riverside Nottingham wards to form Nottingham Trent Bridge (72,469). The Nottingham wards from Mapperley, Berridge and Basford northwards then form Nottingham North (73,937).

The rest of Nottingham doesn't have quite enough for a seat, and Broxtowe district has slightly too much. So one ward from Broxtowe goes into a Nottingham seat; to avoid splitting Beeston I'm suggesting Nuthall East & Strelley, which must have much of its electorate inside the urban area of Nottingham, east of M1 junction 26. That gives Nottingham West (74,348) and an admittedly funny-shaped Broxtowe (76,808).

Ashfield (71,910) has lost Eastwood so grabs Newstead Abbey from Sherwood to reach quota. This leaves Sherwood (72,589) with Hucknall out on a limb a bit, the Calverton and Bestwood St Albans wards of Gedling district, and rather more of Newark & Sherwood than it has now, basically stuff to the north-west of Dover Beck and Southwell. Gedling (72,117) consists of the part of Gedling district not in Ashfield or Sherwood, plus Lowdham ward, and Newark (76,706) loses a handful of wards to Gedling and Sherwood but picks up the left-over parts of Rushcliffe, becoming a bit long and thin.

Finally Mansfield (74,066) and Bassetlaw (76,764) are unchanged.

[myth11]

how likely is a crossover seat with notts? because Northamptonshire, Leicestershire and Rutland can done without cutting up wards.

[greenhert]

Mar 10, 2016 22:27:38 GMT myth11 said:

how likely is a crossover seat with notts? because Northamptonshire, Leicestershire and Rutland can done without cutting up wards.

Correct, but it is rather awkward as I have learned. Which is more preferable among cross-county constituencies? A 'Daventry & Lutterworth' constituency or a 'Melton Mowbray & Keyworth' constituency?