2018 review - Yorkshire and the Humber

[markgoodair]

Were Wakefield South come into Wakefield constiuency Creagh would be really struggle to get elected. Only once (1995) has it not elected a Conservative councillor and always has the highest turnout of any of the 21 wards.

[The Bishop]

She won by 2.6k last time, Tories won WS by 1.4k in the simultaneous local elections.

So it probably wouldn't tip the balance by itself, other changes would have to be unfavourable for Labour as well.

[Pete Whitehead]

My proposed changes to Wakefield make very little difference to the partisan balance - if anything they slightly increase the Labour lead. I'm in a position to work out the notional results for all the seats I've proposed here which I will do a little later

[J.G.Harston]

Mar 9, 2016 10:56:52 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

For North Yorkshire, Scarborough is the only seat outside the limits so I'd propose adding the Filey and Hertford wards from Thirsk & Malton and to compensate send Dalby, Derwent Valley and Esk Valley the other way with no change to the other six seats

Geographically, splitting up the "Whitby Rural District" (the northern three bits of this map) is problematic as it's isolated from the surrounding areas by vast chunks of moorland and hardly any communication links. And taking Esk Valley out you'd end up with a S&W with a two-mile-wide constriction at Whitby.

Going by councillor numbers your proposal is neutral: add Filey(3)+Hertford(2) remove Dalby(1)+EskValley(2)+DerwentVelley(2). I haven't checked elector numbers yet.

Edit: S&W just needs about 2,500 adding to it, which T&M can afford to lose. Filey is too big, Hertford would leave Filey as an exclave, I'd add Thornton Dale, 2616 electors, giving S&W 70708+2616=73324 (-1.2%), T&M 74152-2616=71536 (-4.3%).

[Pete Whitehead]

That was what I was going to do originally but then thought it would make sense to bring all the coastal areas together (and Filey and Hertford are of course in Scarborough district). I take your point about the Whitby Rural district bit being isolated from the rest of Thirsk & Malton but can't see any problem with the 'two-mile constriction' you mention. Can you tell me what practical problems this is likely to cause.
No need for you to check the elector numbers for me. The numbers work obviously otherwise I wouldn't have presented this option

[Pete Whitehead]

Mar 9, 2016 11:18:10 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

My proposed changes to Wakefield make very little difference to the partisan balance - if anything they slightly increase the Labour lead. I'm in a position to work out the notional results for all the seats I've proposed here which I will do a little later

Its probably not worth getting into too many detailed notionals until we have actual concrete proposals but the salient points are as follows:

Humberside loses a seat with the abolished seat being Hull West & Hessle. Hull Haltemprice is obviously much better for Labour than the current Haltemprice & Howden seat but looks to be fairly reliable for the Tories barring a landslide. Scunthorpe is moved into the Tory column though by a very small margin. So the position would be changed from 5 Con 5 Lab to 6 Con 3 Lab

In South Yorkshire the abolished seat is Barnsley East. Sheffield Central is also effectively abolished but a new seat of Sheffield Hillsborough is created which will be reliably Labour. Labour would have carried Sheffield Hallam quite comfortably on these boundaries so would remain net unchanged on 13 seats with the Lib Dems down 1

West Yorkshire loses two seats with the abolished seats being Bradford South and Leeds Central (although the latter name survives in what is effectively the successor to Leeds NE)
In the seats which are of interest, Keighley and Colne Valley become somewhat safer for the Tories while Calder Valley is a little more marginal. Halifax is moved clearly into the Tory column while Brighouse & Spenborough (which is tenuously the successor to Batley & Spen is only marginally Labour held. Pudsey is moved narrowly into the Labour column while Batley & Morley (in place of Morley & Outwood) will be safely Labour.
The most interesting seat is Leeds North (successor to Leeds NW). Here I have Labour ahead by about 500 over the Lib Dems with the Tories less than 2,000 further behind. The major change in the balance is to improve the Tory position as Labour's share remains the same and it doesn't look an easy seat for them to win in reality. Had the seat been fought on these boundaries, presumably the Lib Dems would have won over many tactical Tory votes in Alwoodley as they did in Adel & Wharfedale and other wards, which would be enough to keep it in their hands. Alternatively, with a more favourable situation for the Tories overall, tactical voting may have been absent in those wards in which case the Tories would have had a good chance of winning themselves. So while technically this is a notional Labour seat, it's doubtful that in reality that these boundary changes are helpful to them.
But the net position in West Yorkshire is that the Tories and Lib Dems are both down 1 with Labour staying on 14

Overall in Yorkshire and HUmberside the position would be Lab 31 (-2) Con 19 (nc) LD 0 (-2)

[greenhert]

My proposed seats for the region, part 1 (North Lincolnshire and East Yorkshire, formerly known as Humberside).

North Lincolnshire

1. Grimsby & Cleethorpes. As Great Grimsby minus the ward of Freshney, but plus the wards of Sidney Sussex, Haverstoe and Croft Baker (all 3 wards of the town of Cleethorpes). Name has been changed in light of abolition of Great Grimsby district. Electorate: 76,350.
2. Brigg. The North East Lincolnshire wards of Freshney, Humberstone & New Waltham, Waltham, Wolds, and Immingham, plus the North Lincolnshire wards of Ferry, Barton, Brigg & Wolds, Burton upon Stather & Winterton, Broughton & Appleby, and Burringham & Guinness. Electorate: 78,262.
3.Scunthorpe. All remaining North Lincolnshire wards, including the town of Scunthorpe. Electorate: 77845.

East Yorkshire (adding Filey helps here, since historically it was in the old East Riding of Yorkshire)

1.Kingston-upon-Hull North. The Kingston-Upon-Hull wards of Bransholme East/West, Kings Park, Orchard Park & Greenwood, University, Sutton, Beverley, Holderness, and Ings. Electorate: 71,111.
2.Kingston-upon-Hull South. The Kingston-Upon-Hull wards of Longhill, Marfleet, Southcoates East/West, Drypool, Myton, Newland, St Andrew's, Newington, and Avenue. Electorate: 71,156.
3. Kingston-Upon-Hull West & Cottingham. The Kingston-Upon-Hull wards of Bricknell, Boothferry, Pickering, and Derringham, plus the East Yorkshire wards of Cottingham North/South, Tranby, Willerby & Kirk Ella, and Hessle. Electorate: 75,744.
4. Goole & Howden. The East Yorkshire wards of Goole North/South, Snaith, Armyn, Rawcliffe & Marshland, Howden, Howdenshire, Dale, South Hunsley, Wolds Weighton (part) and Pocklington Provincial. Electorate: 76,433 (estimate).
5. Beverley & Holderness. The current Beverley & Holderness seat minus half of Beverley rural ward. Electorate: 71,245 (estimate). 
6. Bridlington & Filey. The East Yorkshire wards of Wolds & Weighton (part), Beverley rural (half),Driffield & Rural, Bridlington Central & Old Town/North/South, and East Wolds & Coastal, plus the Scarborough wards of Filey and Hertford. Electorate: 73,019 (estimate).

[greenhert]

Part 2, Sheffield, Barnsley and Rotherham.

Sheffield

1. Sheffield Ecclesfield & Hillsborough. The Sheffield wards of Stocksbridge & Upper Don, East Ecclesfield, West Ecclesfield, Hillsborough, Southey and the northern half of the ward of Shiregreen & Brightside. Electorate: 76,077 (estimate).
2. Sheffield Attercliffe & Brightside. All the Sheffield wards in the Sheffield South East constituency plus the southern half of the ward of Shiregreen & Brightside. Electorate: 73,775 (estimate)
3. Sheffield Heeley. The current Sheffield Heeley constituency plus the ward of Manor Castle. Electorate: 78,366.
4. Sheffield Hallam. The current Sheffield Hallam constituency plus half the ward of Nether Edge. Electorate: 77,103 (estimate)
5. Sheffield Central. The Sheffield wards of Firth Park, Central, Walkley, Broomhill, Burngreave, and half of Nether Edge. Electorate: 76,208 (estimate).

Barnsley & Rotherham.

1. Barnsley & Penistone. The Barnsley wards of Penistone East/West, Dodworth, Darton East/West, St. Helens, Old Town, Central, and Kingstone. Electorate: 71,101.
2. Bolton-upon-Dearne. The Barnsley wards of Dearne North/South, North East, Darfield, Royston, Cudworth, Monk, Bretton, Stairfoot, and Worsborough. Electorate: 71,180.
3. Wentworth. The Barnsley wards of Rockingham, Hoyland Milton, and Worsborough, plus the Rotherham wards of Hoober, Wath, Swinton, Keppel and Wingfield. Electorate: 72,216.
4. Rotherham. The Rotherham wards of Rotherham East/West, Rawmarsh, Silverwood, Boston Castle, Brinsworth & Catcliffe, Valley, and Wickersley. Electorate: 71,915.
5. Rother Valley. Unchanged from current boundaries. Electorate: 73,511.

[YL]

Mar 10, 2016 18:27:36 GMT greenhert said:

Part 2, Sheffield, Barnsley and Rotherham.
4. Sheffield Hallam & Stocksbridge. The current Sheffield Hallam constituency, minus half the ward of Crookes but plus the ward of Stocksbridge & Upper Don. Electorate: 77,272 (estimate).

I did tell you not to draw this seat!

Mar 2, 2016 8:22:53 GMT YL said:

The Ecclesfield wards are going to have to come into a successor to the current Brightside & Hillsborough, and the obvious thing is for it to lose Hillsborough and part of one other ward (which can be the Brightside area as before). At this point, there's a danger that someone thinks that the easiest thing to do is to add Stocksbridge & Upper Don to Hallam and Hillsborough to Central, then splitting one current Hallam ward (probably Crookes) between the two. This is bad: the revised "Hallam" is an incoherent straggly thing with poor communication links and little in common between its northern and southern areas. A better idea, but involving more change, is what J.G.Harston is suggesting: a revived Sheffield Hillsborough (S&UD, Stannington, Hillsborough, Walkley, plus some bits to the south) and allowing Hallam to expand towards the centre to replace its lost territory to the north and get up to quota.

(I can see why someone might if looking at a blank ward map and the current constituencies, which is why I said that. If you actually look at where the communication links are, you should see what I mean.)

[iain]

Taking Crookes out of Hallam and having it stretch into the city centre is also not very nice.

[YL]

Mar 10, 2016 19:04:29 GMT iain said:

Taking Crookes out of Hallam and having it stretch into the city centre is also not very nice.

Why?

Take the version that J.G.Harston proposed (and that I endorsed in the quoted post, assuming a target of dividing the whole city into five seats): Fulwood, Broomhill (southern part), Dore & Totley, Ecclesall, Nether Edge, Central. Fulwood and Ecclesall both have very strong radial links to Broomhill (including things like school catchment areas as well as communication links). Dore & Totley has good links to Ecclesall, and Ecclesall has strong links to Nether Edge, the boundary between the two being quite weak on the ground. Both Broomhill and Nether Edge have good links to Central, especially the bits of the latter outside the actual centre. It's a good, coherent, south-west Sheffield seat which happens to also include the city centre (which these days with all the student accommodation probably has its strongest links westwards anyway). It's actually quite similar to the pre-1997 Hallam.

[Pete Whitehead]

Mar 10, 2016 17:04:44 GMT greenhert said:

My proposed seats for the region, part 1 (North Lincolnshire and East Yorkshire, formerly known as Humberside).

North Lincolnshire

1. Grimsby. As Great Grimsby minus the ward of Freshney, but plus the wards of Sidney Sussex, Haverstoe and Croft Baker. Name has been changed in light of abolition of Great Grimsby district. Electorate: 76,350.
2. Brigg & Cleethorpes. The North East Lincolnshire wards of Freshney, Humberstone & New Waltham, Waltham, Wolds, and Immingham, plus the North Lincolnshire wards of Ferry, Barton, Brigg & Wolds, Burton upon Stather & Winterton, Axholme North, and Burringham & Guinness. Electorate: 78,427.

You do realise that your Brigg & Cleethorpes seat doesn't include Cleethorpes?

[greenhert]

Mar 10, 2016 19:57:10 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Mar 10, 2016 17:04:44 GMT greenhert said:

My proposed seats for the region, part 1 (North Lincolnshire and East Yorkshire, formerly known as Humberside).

North Lincolnshire

1. Grimsby & Cleethorpes. As Great Grimsby minus the ward of Freshney, but plus the wards of Sidney Sussex, Haverstoe and Croft Baker. Name has been changed in light of abolition of Great Grimsby district. Electorate: 76,350.
2. Brigg. The North East Lincolnshire wards of Freshney, Humberstone & New Waltham, Waltham, Wolds, and Immingham, plus the North Lincolnshire wards of Ferry, Barton, Brigg & Wolds, Burton upon Stather & Winterton, Axholme North, and Burringham & Guinness. Electorate: 78,427.

You do realise that your Brigg & Cleethorpes seat doesn't include Cleethorpes?

I have realised that after further research, and changed the seat names accordingly in the post you have quoted. I included all three wards of Cleethorpes alongside Grimsby.

[greenhert]

Part 3. Wakefield & Doncaster.

1. Don Valley. The Doncaster wards of Hatfield, Finningley, Thorne & Moorends, Rossington & Bawtry, Tickhill & Wadsworth, Conisborough, and Edlington & Wamsworth. Electorate: 75,835.
2. Doncaster. The Doncaster wards of Town, Wheatley Hills & Intake, Bessacarr, Hexthorpe & Balby North, Balby South, Armthorpe, Edenthorpe & Kirk Sandall, and Bentley. Electorate: 77,781.
3. Doncaster North & Elmsall. The Doncaster wards of Norton & Askern, Stainforth & Barnby Dun, Adwick-le-Street & Carcroft, Roman Ridge, Spotborough and Mexborough and the Wakefield wards of South Elmsall & South Kirkby and half of the ward of Ackworth, North Elmsall & Upton. Electorate: 76,101 (estimate).
4. Pontefract & Castleford. The Wakefield wards of Pontefract North/South, Castleford Central & Glasshoughton, Altofts & Whitwood, Knottingley, Airedale & Ferry Fryston, and half of Ackworth, North Elmsall & Upton. Electorate: 72,732 (estimate).
5. Hemsworth & Ossett. The Wakefield wards of Hemsworth, Crofton, Ryhill & Walton, Normanton, Featherstone, Horbury & South Ossett, and Ossett. Electorate: 71,679.
6. Wakefield. The Wakefield wards of Wakefield East/North/South/West, Stanley & Outwood East, and Wrenthorpe & Outwood West. Electorate: 74,438.

[greenhert]

Part 4: Leeds.

1. Morley & Rothwell. The Leeds wards of Morley North/South, Ardeley & Robin Hood, Middleton Park, and half of Rothwell (but with the actual Rothwell community inside). Electorate: 74,055 (estimate).
2. Leeds South. The Leeds wards of Armley, Farnley & Wortley, Beeston & Holbeck, City & Hunslet, and Burmantofts & Richmond Hill. Electorate: 76,207.
3. Pudsey & Otley. As the Pudsey constituency plus the Otley half of Otley & Yeadon ward. Electorate: 77,133 (estimate).
4. Elmet. The Yeadon half of Otley & Yeadon plus the wards of Adel & Wharfedale, Alwoodley, Harewood, and Wetherby. Electorate: 71,124 (estimate).
5. Leeds South East. Half of Rothwell plus the wards of Cross Gates & Whinnor, Garforth & Swillington, Kippax & Methley, and Temple Newsam. Electorate: 72,391 (estimate).
6. Leeds North West. The wards of Headingley, Hyde Park & Woodhouse, Kirkstall, Bramley & Stanningley, Weetwood, and part of Moortown. Electorate: 71,450 approx.
7. Leeds North East. Part of Moortown plus the wards of Chapel Allerton, Gipton & Harehills, Roundhay, and Killingbeck & Seacroft. Electorate: 72,000 approx.

[YL]

Mar 10, 2016 22:08:51 GMT greenhert said:

Part 3. Wakefield & Doncaster.

1. Don Valley. The Doncaster wards of Hatfield, Finningley, Thorne & Moorends, Rossington & Bawtry, Tickhill & Wadsworth, Conisborough, and Edlington & Wamsworth. Electorate: 75,835.
2. Doncaster. The Doncaster wards of Town, Wheatley Hills & Intake, Bessacarr, Hexthorpe & Balby North, Balby South, Armthorpe, Edenthorpe & Kirk Sandall, and Bentley. Electorate: 77,781.
3. Doncaster North & Elmsall. The Doncaster wards of Norton & Askern, Stainforth & Barnby Dun, Adwick-le-Street & Carcroft, Roman Ridge, Spotborough and Mexborough and the Wakefield wards of South Elmsall & South Kirkby and half of the ward of Ackworth, North Elmsall & Upton. Electorate: 76,101 (estimate).
4. Pontefract & Castleford. The Wakefield wards of Pontefract North/South, Castleford Central & Glasshoughton, Altofts & Whitwood, Knottingley, Airedale & Ferry Fryston, and half of Ackworth, North Elmsall & Upton. Electorate: 72,732 (estimate).
5. Hemsworth & Ossett. The Wakefield wards of Hemsworth, Crofton, Ryhill & Walton, Normanton, Featherstone, Horbury & South Ossett, and Ossett. Electorate: 71,679.
6. Wakefield. The Wakefield wards of Wakefield East/North/South/West, Stanley & Outwood East, and Wrenthorpe & Outwood West. Electorate: 74,438.

Your lists aren't quite right; in particular as listed Hemsworth & Ossett is disconnected. I can match your electorates and get connected seats if I put Wakefield Rural into Hemsworth & Ossett instead of Normanton and add Normanton to Wakefield.

[greenhert]

Part 6. Bradford, Calderdale, and Kirklees.

1. Bradford West. The Bradford wards of Great Horton, Wibsey, Wyke, Royds, Toller. Heaton, Thornton & Allerton (half) and Clayton & Fairweather Green. Electorate: 78,122 (estimate).
2. Bradford East. The Bradford wards of City, Little Horton, Manningham, Bolton & Undercliffe, Eccleshill, Bradford Moor, and Bowling & Barkerend. Electorate: 72,529.
3. Keighley. The current Keighley constituency plus the ward of Wharfedale. Electorate: 76,636.
4. Shipley. The current Shipley constituency minus the ward of Wharfedale, but plus the ward of Idle & Thackley and the Thornton half of Thornton & Allerton. Electorate: 77,598 (estimate)
5. Halifax.  As the existing Halifax constituency plus the Bradford wards of Queensferry minus one-third of Northowram & Shelf ward. Electorate: 76,553 (estimate).
6. Calder Valley. As the existing Calder Valley plus one-third of Northowram & Shelf ward. Electorate: 77,992 (estimate).
7. Cleckheaton. The Kirklees wards of Cleckheaton, Birstall & Birkinshaw, Liversedge & Gomersal, Heckmondwike and Mirfield, plus the Bradford ward of Tong. Electorate: 76,407.
8. Colne Valley. As the existing Colne Valley constituency minus Lindley ward but plus Denby Dale ward. Electorate: 78,384.
9. Huddersfield. As the existing Huddersfield constituency plus the ward of Lindley. Electorate: 76,540.
10. Batley & Dewsbury. The Kirklees wards of Kirkburton, Batley East/West, and Dewsbury East/South/West. Electorate: 74,291.

[greenhert]

Part 7. The City of York and North Yorkshire.

1. York Outer. Unchanged from current boundaries. Electorate: 75,778.
2. York Central. Unchanged from current boundaries. Electorate: 71,586.
3. Selby & Ainsty. Unchanged from current boundaries. Electorate: 72,685.
4. Harrogate & Knaresborough. Loses the ward of Boughbridge to Skipton & Ripon. Electorate: 71,953.
5. Skipton & Ripon. Loses Mashamshire and Pateley Bridge wards but gains the ward of Boughbridge. Electorate: 72,777.
6. Scarborough & Whitby. All wards in Scarborough not included in Bridlington & Filey, plus the Ryedale ward of Thornton Dale. Electorate: 73,324.
7. Richmond & Northallerton. The current Richmond constituency minus the wards of Great Ayton and Stokeskey, but plus the wards of Mashamshire and Pateley Bridge. Electorate: 71,281.
8. Thirsk & Malton. Loses the Thornton Dale, Filey, and Hertford wards, but gains the wards of Great Ayton and Stokeskey. Electorate: 71,289.

[greenhert]

The disappearing constituencies in my hypothetical list of Yorkshire & Humber constituencies are: Brigg & Goole, Haltemprice & Howden, Kingston-Upon-Hull East, Morley & Outwood, Penistone & Stocksbridge, Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough, Bradford South, Elmet & Rothwell, Leeds West, and Leeds East. Also, the new Kingston-Upon-Hull North, Leeds NW and Leeds NE will be very different from their predecessor constituencies of the same name.

[iain]

Mar 10, 2016 19:31:05 GMT YL said:

Mar 10, 2016 19:04:29 GMT iain said:

Taking Crookes out of Hallam and having it stretch into the city centre is also not very nice.

Why?

Take the version that J.G.Harston proposed (and that I endorsed in the quoted post, assuming a target of dividing the whole city into five seats): Fulwood, Broomhill (southern part), Dore & Totley, Ecclesall, Nether Edge, Central. Fulwood and Ecclesall both have very strong radial links to Broomhill (including things like school catchment areas as well as communication links). Dore & Totley has good links to Ecclesall, and Ecclesall has strong links to Nether Edge, the boundary between the two being quite weak on the ground. Both Broomhill and Nether Edge have good links to Central, especially the bits of the latter outside the actual centre. It's a good, coherent, south-west Sheffield seat which happens to also include the city centre (which these days with all the student accommodation probably has its strongest links westwards anyway). It's actually quite similar to the pre-1997 Hallam.

It is the removal of Crookes which I dislike, as the area very much looks to the south. However, upon looking more closely I find it quite difficult to create a differing seat that I am happy with. The City Centre in particular is a pain, as different parts of it clearly link to different areas (not entirely unexpected I grant you).

Are there Parliamentary electorate figures available for the new wards and / or polling districts?