Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Mar 2, 2016 22:35:59 GMT
Leeds North West & Bingley: Con maj. 5045 over Lab, 6452 over LD [...] So theoretically, Lab +1, Con -1.5, LD -1. To fall to third place looks like a gerrymander against Greg Mulholland, but didn't his current seat have the second highest number of students in the country before IER took full effect? I appreciate this wards in the old 'metropolitan' counties are a pain given the tighter new rules, so no offence meant, but... I have to say that your 'Halifax West' constituency is an utter monstrosity.  |
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YL
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Post by YL on Mar 3, 2016 7:30:51 GMT
I've been having a look at trying to do West Yorkshire minus Wakefield without ward-splitting, and finding it hellishly difficult. Ward sizes in most of the boroughs, but particularly in Calderdale and Leeds, are extremely unhelpful, because you tend to end up with most of your seats in those boroughs parked at the upper end of the size distribution, which leaves you a ward short at the end. I'm sure there are solutions, but I'm already crossing borders willy-nilly as it is and the one solution I haven't yet tried is to split Keighley, which is just a gratuitously bad idea. YL, you mentioned that it's possible to do Wakefield with two 7-warders and one 6-warder. Is it possible to do it with one 7-warder and 2 6-warders? I'm not keen on the prospect, because I'd like to leave Dewsbury unchanged if at all possible, but that might be one way out of the problem. Alternatively, if the Keighley seat strays just over the border into Skipton, it might be possible to sort that without inflicting knock-on changes in North Yorkshire. You probably aren't looking for an answer to this any more, but I'm pretty sure all the 6 ward options I found in Wakefield included Wakefield Rural, so no. Anyway, I'm impressed you managed it. That some of the constituencies are ridiculous is inevitable given the premise. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Mar 3, 2016 7:35:49 GMT
Leeds North West & Bingley: Con maj. 5045 over Lab, 6452 over LD [...] So theoretically, Lab +1, Con -1.5, LD -1. To fall to third place looks like a gerrymander against Greg Mulholland, but didn't his current seat have the second highest number of students in the country before IER took full effect? I appreciate this wards in the old 'metropolitan' counties are a pain given the tighter new rules, so no offence meant, but... I have to say that your 'Halifax West' constituency is an utter monstrosity. Any change, even relatively minor change, was going to significantly affect Mulholland, given that the Lib Dems only retained their deposit in one neighbouring seat, and that with only 5.3% of the vote. In practice he'd still have a decent shot at holding on, and there could certainly be plenty of worse arrangements for him - some of my earlier drafts swapped Weetwood for Alwoodley. I'm not going to disagree on Calderdale. The problem is that I was trying to minimise change in Kirklees, and if you do that then Huddersfield more or less has to take Elland, which torpedoes the current arrangement in Calderdale. And then the variation of ward sizes in the west of Bradford district proves surprisingly unhelpful. |
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Post by hullenedge on Mar 3, 2016 12:07:01 GMT
Not sure about Elland going into Huddersfield...
Normanton, Pontefract & Castleford - unchanged - 78097
Hemsworth - loses Wakefield South but gains Rural - 72647
Wakefield - gains South, loses Rural and Ossett, add the two Outwood wards - 74408
Dewsbury - gains Ossett, loses Denby Dale - 76667
Colne Valley - gains Denby Dale, loses Lindley - 78384
Huddersfield - gains Lindley - 76540
Batley & Spen - unchanged - 75961
Halifax - loses Sowerby Bridge but gains Hipperholme and Brighouse wards - 76392...rename Halifax and Brighouse?
Calder Valley - loses the two Brighouse wards but gains Sowerby Bridge and Worth Valley - 76952...rename Sowerby?
Keighley and Bingley - Keighley, the two Bingleys plus Craven - 72593
Bradford South West - Bradford South less Tong plus Thornton and Clayton wards - 74250
Bradford Central - L. Horton, Bowling, Bolton, Heaton, Toller, Manningham and City - 71868
Bradford North and Shipley - Shipley, Windhill, Baildon, Idle, Eccleshill, Guiseley - 73476
Pudsey - loses Guiseley but gains Bramley and Bradford Moor wards - 77076
Morley - Morley wards, Ardsley, Middleton and Tong - 77642
Leeds West Central - Beeston, City, Wortley, Armley and Kirkstall - 76459
Leeds East Central - Leeds East plus Burmantofts - 76213
Elmet and Rothwell - unchanged - 77287
Leeds North East - North East plus Hyde Park - 78304
and finally ... Leeds North West and Wharfedale - current NW plus Ilkley and Wharfedale wards - 76439
likely 14 Labour and six Tory for 2015 notional.
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YL
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Post by YL on Mar 3, 2016 13:33:51 GMT
Not sure about Elland going into Huddersfield... Normanton, Pontefract & Castleford - unchanged - 78097 Hemsworth - loses Wakefield South but gains Rural - 72647 Wakefield - gains South, loses Rural and Ossett, add the two Outwood wards - 74408 Dewsbury - gains Ossett, loses Denby Dale - 76667 Colne Valley - gains Denby Dale, loses Lindley - 78384 Huddersfield - gains Lindley - 76540 Batley & Spen - unchanged - 75961 Halifax - loses Sowerby Bridge but gains Hipperholme and Brighouse wards - 76392...rename Halifax and Brighouse? Calder Valley - loses the two Brighouse wards but gains Sowerby Bridge and Worth Valley - 76952...rename Sowerby? Keighley and Bingley - Keighley, the two Bingleys plus Craven - 72593 Bradford South West - Bradford South less Tong plus Thornton and Clayton wards - 74250 Bradford Central - L. Horton, Bowling, Bolton, Heaton, Toller, Manningham and City - 71868 Bradford North and Shipley - Shipley, Windhill, Baildon, Idle, Eccleshill, Guiseley - 73476 Pudsey - loses Guiseley but gains Bramley and Bradford Moor wards - 77076 Morley - Morley wards, Ardsley, Middleton and Tong - 77642 Leeds West Central - Beeston, City, Wortley, Armley and Kirkstall - 76459 Leeds East Central - Leeds East plus Burmantofts - 76213 Elmet and Rothwell - unchanged - 77287 Leeds North East - North East plus Hyde Park - 78304 and finally ... Leeds North West and Wharfedale - current NW plus Ilkley and Wharfedale wards - 76439 likely 14 Labour and six Tory for 2015 notional. At a first glance, this looks pretty good, with only a couple of the weirdnesses I'd expect from West Yorks without split wards. However, as it would preclude crossing the S Yorks/W Yorks boundary, it'd require thinking again about how to fix Doncaster. There are a couple of possibilities which I'll have a look at later. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Mar 3, 2016 19:05:50 GMT
Not sure about Elland going into Huddersfield... Normanton, Pontefract & Castleford - unchanged - 78097 Hemsworth - loses Wakefield South but gains Rural - 72647 Wakefield - gains South, loses Rural and Ossett, add the two Outwood wards - 74408 Dewsbury - gains Ossett, loses Denby Dale - 76667 Colne Valley - gains Denby Dale, loses Lindley - 78384 Huddersfield - gains Lindley - 76540 Batley & Spen - unchanged - 75961 Halifax - loses Sowerby Bridge but gains Hipperholme and Brighouse wards - 76392...rename Halifax and Brighouse? Calder Valley - loses the two Brighouse wards but gains Sowerby Bridge and Worth Valley - 76952...rename Sowerby? Keighley and Bingley - Keighley, the two Bingleys plus Craven - 72593 Bradford South West - Bradford South less Tong plus Thornton and Clayton wards - 74250 Bradford Central - L. Horton, Bowling, Bolton, Heaton, Toller, Manningham and City - 71868 Bradford North and Shipley - Shipley, Windhill, Baildon, Idle, Eccleshill, Guiseley - 73476 Pudsey - loses Guiseley but gains Bramley and Bradford Moor wards - 77076 Morley - Morley wards, Ardsley, Middleton and Tong - 77642 Leeds West Central - Beeston, City, Wortley, Armley and Kirkstall - 76459 Leeds East Central - Leeds East plus Burmantofts - 76213 Elmet and Rothwell - unchanged - 77287 Leeds North East - North East plus Hyde Park - 78304 and finally ... Leeds North West and Wharfedale - current NW plus Ilkley and Wharfedale wards - 76439 likely 14 Labour and six Tory for 2015 notional. Any particular reason why adding Elland to Huddersfield would be problematic? I don't know that bit of Yorkshire at all and just assumed connections ought to be reasonable based upon roads, but I'd be interested in any specifics you can give. I did briefly look into adding Denby Dale to Colne Valley in my work-up, but I figured that transport links were poor and that Kirkburton was then rather isolated in Dewsbury. I'm always interested to read justifications for why particular seats do and do not work. |
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Mar 3, 2016 19:26:39 GMT
Denby Dale was in the 1955-83 version of Colne Valley so there is a precedent.
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YL
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Post by YL on Mar 3, 2016 20:54:51 GMT
It is possible to fix Doncaster from wholly within South Yorkshire. Compared with previous ideas: - Doncaster North loses the Wakefield ward and adds Swinton. This looks a bit ugly on a map TBH, but a Mexborough/Swinton link doesn't seem silly. Not sure what to call it. (72,233)
- Wentworth & Wombwell needs to be substantially rearranged for the numbers to work, losing Hoyland Milton and Rockingham as well as Swinton but gaining Darfield, the Dearne wards and Stairfoot. The name "Wentworth & Dearne" could probably be retained. (77,451)
- A Barnsley North constituency appears, containing the Darton wards, Old Town, Central, St. Helens, Royston, Monk Bretton, Cudworth and North East. (71,128)
- The rest of Barnsley (the Hoyland wards, Worsbrough, Kingstone, Dodworth and the Penistone wards) joins Stocksbridge & Upper Don in what could probably get away with being called Barnsley West & Stocksbridge. (71,148)
- Divide Sheffield minus Stocksbridge & Upper Don into five seats according to taste. (Two options given earlier.)
- Doncaster Central, Rotherham and Don and Rother Valleys as before.
There are ways of making this look a bit less ugly by moving a few wards around in Doncaster and/or Rotherham. In Barnsley, it's such a tight fit that it may be very hard to improve. |
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Post by hullenedge on Mar 3, 2016 23:23:32 GMT
The ladies of Ainley Top will revolt if you move Elland into Huddersfield! A v.long story.
A slightly different West Yorks scheme with no split wards and less disruption:-
Keighley - existing plus Wharfedale 76636
Shipley - existing but loses Wharfedale and gains Thornton 71379
Bradford West - Heaton, Toller, Queensbury, Clayton, G.Horton, Wibsey, Royds 74305
Bradford East - existing but loses Bradford Moor and gains City and Manningham 73483
Halifax - loses Sowerby Bridge and gains Hipperholme and Wyke 78151
Calder Valley - gains Sowerby Bridge loses Hipperholme 74587
Colne Valley - loses Lindley gains Denby Dale 78384
Huddersfield - gains Lindley 76540
Batley & Spen - unchanged - 75961
Dewsbury - loses D Dale gains Ossett 76667
Leeds North West - existing plus Guiseley 73429
Leeds North East - existing plus Hyde Park 78304
Elmet & Rothwell - unchanged - 77287
Leeds East Central - existing East plus Burmantofts - 76213
Leeds West Central - City, Beeston, Armley, Kirkstall, Wortley - 76459
Pudsey - existing less Guiseley gains Bramley and Bradford Moor - 77076
Morley - Morley, Ardsley, Middleton, Tong - 77642
Wakefield - four city wards, two Outwoods and Horbury - 74408
Normanton, Pontefract & Castleford - unchanged - 78097
Hemsworth - existing less South but gaining W Rural - 72647
Leeds NW remains Lib Dem?
If West and South Yorks to be combined put the Bingleys in different constituencies - Bradford NW/SW seven wards apiece, East gains City, Tong into the above Pudsey, Wortley and an Outwood to Morley, Middleton to Leeds WC...creates some leeway in Wakefield/Hemsworth to add Barnsley (?) wards.
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YL
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Post by YL on Mar 5, 2016 18:38:09 GMT
The East Riding and the part of Lincolnshire in the region.
Ideally I'd get rid of this pairing, but with the East Riding (including Hull) being so close to the minimum for 6 seats and large wards (especially in the East Riding unitary) it's going to be hard to do it without careful ward splitting. The three Axholme wards are the obvious Lincolnshire wards to include in a cross-border seat, which leaves the rest of the area close to the minimum for three seats. I'm reasonably happy with the below in the East Riding but a bit less so in Lincolnshire where I'd prefer not to have to split Grimsby.
Bridlington (77,061) The current East Yorkshire, unchanged but with a more sensible name.
Beverley & Holderness (76,641) Unchanged.
Hull East (73,262) Current seat plus Myton.
Hull North & Cottingham (72,537) Current Hull North less Avenue and Brickton, plus the Cottingham wards and Willerby & Kirk Ella.
Hull West & Hessle (72,212) Current seat, less Myton, plus Avenue and Brickton from North, plus Tranby ward.
Goole & Axholme (75,259) The parts of Haltemprice & Howden not transferred into Hull seats, plus the Yorkshire and Axholme parts of Brigg & Goole.
Scunthorpe (71,280) Existing seat plus Burrington & Gunness and Burton upon Stather & Winterton.
Grimsby North & Brigg (71,470) The rest of North Lincolnshire; in North East Lincs Immingham, Wolds, Yarborough, Freshney and the two Marsh wards.
Grimsby South & Cleethorpes (71,733) The rest of North East Lincolnshire.
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YL
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Post by YL on Mar 5, 2016 18:48:27 GMT
NB that means that Axholme might provide another way of fixing Doncaster, if you don't want to cross the West Yorks/South Yorks boundary, don't like the consequences of trying to fix it wholly within S Yorks, and can work out what to do with the East Riding without it.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Mar 6, 2016 7:57:05 GMT
The obvious solution would be to give an East Riding ward to North Yorkshire, and the only potential ward that's anywhere near the right size is Howden.
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YL
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Post by YL on Mar 6, 2016 8:49:22 GMT
The obvious solution would be to give an East Riding ward to North Yorkshire, and the only potential ward that's anywhere near the right size is Howden. That's going the wrong way. The East Riding has 5.74 quotas, close to the minimum for six seats, so to make it easier you need to add a bit somewhere rather than take a bit off. However, I'd agree that it's worth looking at North Yorkshire. As little change is needed there otherwise it might meet some resistance, but Filey in a Bridlington seat shouldn't be too controversial. (IIRC Filey is actually in the East Riding historically speaking.) In the Grimsby/Cleethorpes area I think the real solution is to treat this area as part of Lincolnshire so you don't have a forced boundary separating the towns from much of their hinterland, but I don't think the BCE will consider this. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 8, 2016 16:22:11 GMT
I've accidentally come up with a plan for West Yorkshire which is 20 whole seats with no split wards and most of the seats are not too silly. I say accidentally as my intention was to have 17 seats covering four of the boroughs with Wakefield linking with South Yorks for 16. Having got 20 entirely in West Yorks I anticipate problems with South Yorks but will post my findings anyway
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 8, 2016 17:42:56 GMT
I would be eternally grateful to anyone who would ensure Philip Davies remains my MP after 2020 (assuming I'm still living here then)...
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Mar 8, 2016 18:38:16 GMT
I would be eternally grateful to anyone who would ensure Philip Davies remains my MP after 2020 (assuming I'm still living here then)... It's possible, but I wouldn't put money on it. Keighley has to expand, and if you don't take anything out then your only options are Wharfedale or one of the Bingley wards. If Worth Valley goes into a Calderdale seat or if Ilkley goes into a Leeds seat, Keighley could end up taking both the Bingley wards. So that's at least one and possibly three strong Tory wards gone. Hullenedge's second plan, where the three Bradford seats are collapsed into one another, would be relatively safe for Davies and he'd be in the running in his Bradford North & Shipley too, though it wouldn't be nearly as good for him as his present seat. But Shipley is at the middle of a cluster of five seats where there's only room for four and you're in the least Conservative-friendly portion of the seat, which is also closest to the most Labour-friendly parts of the metropolitan borough. It's not hard to see how that could prove problematic. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 8, 2016 21:30:05 GMT
I would be eternally grateful to anyone who would ensure Philip Davies remains my MP after 2020 (assuming I'm still living here then)... Well here is my plan for West Yorkshire and it satisfies that criteria at least. 20 seats wholly within West Yorkshire with no split wards. South Yorkshire is problematic but I think it would be anyway as that is essentially down to the size of the wards in Sheffield  Elmet & Rothwell - unchanged - 77,287 Leeds East - gains Burmantofts & Richmond Hill - 76,213 Leeds Central - actually the successor to Leeds NW, losing Alwoodley and gaining City & Holbeck and Hyde Park & Woodhouse - 78,051 Leeds North - Leeds NW plus Alwoodley - 72,698 Leeds West - loses Bramley, gains Beeston and Middleton - 77,164 Batley & Morley - compared with Morley & Outwood, loses the two 'Outwood' wards and gains the two Batley wards - 74,680 Pudsey - loses Guiseley etc, gains Bramley and the Bradford ward of Idle - 78,030 Shipley - loses Wharfedale, gains Guiseley & Rawdon - 77,910 Bradford East - loses Idle, gains City and Wibsey - 72,554 Bradford West - loses city, gains Great Horton and Queensbury - 74,270 Keighley - gains Wharfedale - 76,636 Halifax - gains Hipperholme & Lightcliffe - 76,475 Calder Valley - loses Hipperholme & Lightcliffe and Brighouse, gains Lindley from Kirklees - 72,449 Colne Valley - loses Lindley and Crosland Moor, gains Denby Dale and Kirkburton - 77,619 Huddersfield - gains Crosland Moor - 74,686 Dewsbury - loses Denby Dale and Kirkburton, gains Heckmondwike and Ossett - 77,754 Brighouse & Spenborough - (this is a little bit of a mess to be fair) - Brighouse from Calderdale, Birstall and Birkenshaw, Cleckheaton an Liversedge and Gomersal from Kirklees and Royds, Tong and Wyke from Bradford - 77,867 Wakefield - the four Wakefield city wards, the two OUtwood wards and Horbury - 74,408 Hemsworth - loses Wakefield South, gains Wakefield Rural - 72,647 Normanton, Pontefract & Castleford - unchanged - 78,097 |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 8, 2016 21:56:54 GMT
So here is my rather less than wholly satisfactory take on South Yorkshire. It requires two split wards in Sheffield  Sheffield Attercliffe - as the current Sheffield South East but needs to gain around 5-6k voters from the Richmond ward in Heeley (split ward number 1) - electorate will be c. 72,700 Sheffield Heeley - loses that part of Richmond mentioned above and gains Manor Castle - c. 72,700 Sheffield Hallam - loses Crookes and Stannington, gains Broomhill, Nether Edge and the southern part of Central ward (split ward number 2) - c 75,200 Sheffield Brightside - loses Hillsborough, gains East Ecclesfield and the northern part of Central ward - c 72,500 Sheffield Hillsborough - Crookes, Hillsborough, Stannington, Stocksbridge and Upper Don, Walkley - 71,618 Penistone - The Sheffield ward of West Ecclesfield and the Barnsley wards of Darton East, Darton West, Dodworth, Penistone East, Penistone West, Rockingham, Royston - 72,091 Barnsley - the Barnsley wards of Central, Cudworth, Darfield, Kingstone, Monk Bretton, North East, Old Town, St Helens, Stairfoot, Worsbrough - 76,842 Dearne Valley - Barnsley wards of Dearne North, Dearne South, Hoyland Milton, Wombwell. Rotherham wards of Hoober, Silverwood, Swinton, Wath - 71,032 Rotherham - gains Rawmarsh - 71,279 Rother Valley - Gains Wickersley, loses Maltby - 74,068 Don Valley - Maltby from Rother Valley plus the DOncaster wards of Adwick le Street & Carcroft, Conisbrough, Edlington & Warmsworth, Mexborough, Roman Ridge, Sprotborough, Tickhill & Wadworth - 75,487 Doncaster Central (sic) - Balby South, Bessacarr, Finningley, Hexthorpe & Balby North, Rossington & Bawtry, Town, Wheatley Hills & Intake - 72,506 Doncaster North - Armthorpe, Bentley, Edenthorpe & Kirk Sandall, Hatfield, Norton & Askernm, Stainforth & Barnby Dun, Thorne & Moorends - 71,816 |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 8, 2016 22:43:12 GMT
Humberside Great Grimsby - gains Croft Baker and Sidney Sussex - 75,336 Brigg - (compared with Cleethorpes) loses Croft Baker and Sidney Sussex, gains Brigg & The Wolds, Burton upon Stather - 71,512 Scunthorpe - gains Broughton, Burringham, Axholme South - 73,804 Goole & Howden (or Boothferry ? ) - North Lincs wards of Axholme Central and South, East Riding wards of Goole North, Goole South, Howden, Howdenshire, Pocklington Provincial, Snaith, Airmyn, Rawcliffe and Marshland, Wolds Weighton - 73,241 Bridlington - (compared with East Yorkshire) loses Pocklington Provincial and Wolds Weighton, gains Beverley Rural and North Holderness - 71,243 Beverley & Holderness - loses Beverley Rural and North Holderness, gains Cottingham North and South - 71,322 Hull Haltemprice - Hull wards of Boothferry, Bricknell, Derringham. East Riding wards of Dale, Hessle, South Hunsley, Tranby, Willerby and Kirk Ella - 74545 Hull Central - Avenue, Beverley, Drypool, Myton, Newington, Newland, Orchard Park and Greenwood, Pickering, St Andrew's, University - 73,424 Hull East - Bransholme East, Bransholme West, Holderness, Ings, Kings Park, Longhill, Marfleet, Southcoates East,Southcoates West, Sutton - 77,568
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 9, 2016 10:56:52 GMT
For North Yorkshire, Scarborough is the only seat outside the limits so I'd propose adding the Filey and Hertford wards from Thirsk & Malton and to compensate send Dalby, Derwent Valley and Esk Valley the other way with no change to the other six seats
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