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Post by greatkingrat on May 22, 2016 16:31:09 GMT
Somerton and Frome is unlikely to be unchanged even if within the limit, it will likely lose some wards to bring NE Somerset up to quota.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 23, 2016 5:34:47 GMT
Two important factors within the 2018 review will be 1) how many constituencies will be able to remain intact (even if their name is changed or if they are internally adjusted for ward boundary changes) and 2) how many constituencies will be abolished (I do not mean just name changes, I mean constituencies divided up for ''spare parts''). Apart from the legally protected constituencies, I believe the following should be able to remain intact(name changes are in brackets): East Midlands (10/44): Bassetlaw Grantham Harborough High Peak Leicester East Leicester South Leicestershire North West Mansfield South Holland & The Deepings Wellingborough* (Wellingborough & Rushden) East of England (8/57): Bedfordshire South West Chelmsford Colchester Grays Thurrock (Thurrock) Suffolk Coastal Suffolk South Suffolk West Waveney (Lowestoft) London (9/68): Bethnal Green & Bow* Chipping Barnet Hackney North & Stoke Newington* Hackney South & Shoreditch* Hornchurch & Upminster Kingston & Surbiton Poplar & Limehouse* Richmond Park Twickenham North West England (7/68): Chorley City of Chester* Leigh Makerfield St Helens North St Helens South & Whiston Wigan North East England (2/25): North Tyneside (Wallsend) Tynemouth Northern Ireland (1/17): Fermanagh & South Tyrone* Scotland (2/51): East Lothian Kilmarnock & Loudoun South East England (15/81): Basingstoke Bognor Regis & Littlehampton Eastbourne Eastleigh Epsom & Ewell Fareham Gosport Guildford Hastings & Rye Mole Valley (Dorking) Rochester & Strood Slough Surrey East Surrey South West Witney South West England (11/53): Bristol North West Bristol South Cheltenham Devon North Dorset West Exeter Somerset North (Somerset North West) Somerton & Frome Torbay (Torquay) Weston-Super-Mare Yeovil West Midlands (8/53): Bromsgrove Burton Coventry North East Shrewsbury & Atcham* (Shrewsbury) Shropshire North* (Oswestry) Staffordshire South (Staffordshire South West) Sutton Coldfield Wyre Forest Yorkshire & The Humber (9/50): Batley & Spen Beverley & Holderness Harrogate & Knaresborough Richmond* (Richmond & Northallerton) Selby & Ainsty Skipton & Ripon York Central York Outer Yorkshire East (Bridlington) Wallsend is a bad name.
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Post by La Fontaine on May 23, 2016 7:00:35 GMT
But better than North Tyneside. Longbenton would be best.
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on May 23, 2016 8:48:30 GMT
But better than North Tyneside. Longbenton would be best. Wallsend is a fine historic and descriptive name. Nothing is or could be better.
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Post by greenhert on May 23, 2016 13:37:01 GMT
Conversely, regarding my post yesterday, I believe the following seats will be abolished (they will be divided up for spare parts, not merely have a name change or shrunken or expanded boundaries) whatever way the boundaries take place and irrespective of the below seats being in quota or not:
East Midlands:
Corby Derbyshire Mid Nottingham East Rushcliffe Rutland & Melton
East of England:
Broadland North East Cambridgeshire South West Norfolk Witham
London:
Brent Central Chelsea & Fulham Chingford & Woodford Green Dulwich & West Norwood Hampstead & Kilburn Holborn & St Pancras
Northern Ireland:
Belfast East Belfast South
North West England:
Bolton South East Bury South Denton & Reddish Lancaster & Fleetwood Pendle Tatton Workington Wyre & Preston North
North East England:
Blaydon Wansbeck
Scotland:
Ayrshire Central Glasgow Central Gordon
South East England:
Faversham & Kent Mid Meon Valley
South West England:
Cornwall North Dorset North St Austell & Newquay Truro & Falmouth Wiltshire South West
Wales:
Aberconwy Arfon Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire Cardiff Central Clwyd South Montgomeryshire Newport East
West Midlands:
Birmingham Hall Green Herefordshire North Stone Wolverhampton South East
Yorkshire & The Humber:
Brigg & Goole Haltemprice & Howden Leeds North West Morley & Outwood
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J.G.Harston
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Post by J.G.Harston on May 23, 2016 14:08:43 GMT
Conversely, regarding my post yesterday, I believe the following seats will be abolished (they will be divided up for spare parts, not merely have a name change or shrunken or expanded boundaries) whatever way the boundaries take place and irrespective of the below seats being in quota or not: I expect Penistone & Stocksbridge to be broken up for spare parts as well. I can't see any way of redrawing the bottom left-hand corner that contains Sheffield without P&S being cannibalised. Being in the top-righthand corner and only 1.7% over quota, I'd expect Scarborough & Whitby to remain unchanged. In the zombie review all of North Yorkshire were within quota and could have remained unchanged, I haven't checked the current numbers yet.
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Post by emidsanorak on May 23, 2016 15:40:07 GMT
You may think these seats must disappear. I don't. I have worked up a scheme in the East Midlands where:
Corby loses two wards Mid Derbyshire is the biggest component of a new Derby North Nottingham East gains two wards Rushcliffe remains a seat entirely composed of Rushcliffe Borough wards Rutland and Melton remains completely unchanged
I suspect that the same is true of the seats you mention in all the other regions
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Post by islington on May 23, 2016 16:20:45 GMT
I too now have a plan (as Greenhert evidently has) for the whole UK. This is my list of unchanged seats. (In practice, I might change some of the names but I'll stick to the existing name for the purposes of this list). It's very similar to Greenhert's
Unchanged (or (*) changed only to align with new wards)
East Mids (8)
Bassetlaw
Harborough
High Peak
Leicester E
Leicester S
NW Leics
Loughborough
Mansfield
Eastern (8)
Chelmsford
Colchester
Mid Norfolk*
S Suffolk
W Suffolk
Suffolk Coastal*
Thurrock
Waveney
London (10)
Bethnal Gn & Bow*
Chipping Barnet
Hackney N & Stoke Newington*
Hackney S & Shoreditch*
Hornchurch and Upminster
Ilford S
Kingston & Surbiton
Poplar & Limehouse*
Richmond Park
Twickenham
North East (2)
Tynemouth
N Tyneside
North West (9)
Chorley
City of Chester*
Garston & Halewood
Heywood & Middleton
Makerfield
Rochdale
St Helens N
St Helens S
Wigan
South East (19)
Basingstoke
Bognor Regis & Littlehampton
Dover
Eastleigh
Epsom & Ewell
Fareham
Gosport
Guildford
Mole Valley
Reigate
Rochester & Strood
Sittingbourne & Sheppey
Slough
E Surrey
SW Surrey
Surrey Heath
Woking
Worthing E & Shoreham
Worthing W*
South West (11)
Bournemouth E
Bristol NW
Bristol S
Cheltenham
N Devon
W Dorset*
Exeter
N Somerset
Taunton Deane
Torbay
Weston-super-Mare
West Mids (8)
Bromsgrove
Cannock Chase
Coventry NE
N Shropshire
Shrewsbury & Atcham
S Staffs
Sutton Coldfield
Wyre Forest
Yorks & Humb (9)
Batley & Spen
Elmet & Rothwell
Harrogate & Knaresborough
Normanton, Pontefract & Castleford
Richmond*
Selby &Ainsty
Skipton & Ripon
York Inner*
York Outer*
Wales (0)
Scotland (3)
East Lothian
Na h-Eileanan an Iar
Orkney & Shetland
Northern Ireland (1)
Fermanagh & S Tyrone*
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 23, 2016 16:25:40 GMT
Greenhert, Wyre and Preston North may vanish by name but in composition its replacement will be very similar.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on May 23, 2016 17:06:42 GMT
I'd be shocked if South West Bedfordshire doesn't see fairly considerable changes. Adding Houghton Regis to Luton is much better, and adding Dunstable slightly better, than throwing a random arm into the middle of the county.
And I'd be very surprised if Broadland isn't the major contributor to a successor seat. Even if it loses its part of North Norfolk, all of the Norwich suburbia and a bit of territory in the east, that's still 40000 electors who are not likely to be divided up by any sensible plan.
For that matter, it's even money whether it's Witham or Maldon that is the seat that is officially abolished in Essex.
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YL
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Post by YL on May 23, 2016 17:53:28 GMT
Conversely, regarding my post yesterday, I believe the following seats will be abolished (they will be divided up for spare parts, not merely have a name change or shrunken or expanded boundaries) whatever way the boundaries take place and irrespective of the below seats being in quota or not: I expect Penistone & Stocksbridge to be broken up for spare parts as well. I can't see any way of redrawing the bottom left-hand corner that contains Sheffield without P&S being cannibalised. There are options which I think aren't too implausible which have something fairly like it, though without one of Stocksbridge or Ecclesfield and extending further into Barnsley. Rother Valley is another seat which could be left unchanged, depending on how flexible the Commission are about Sheffield wards.
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Post by islington on May 24, 2016 13:08:44 GMT
Here's a slightly different list drawn from my UK plan. In response to the issue regarding respect for LA boundaries, I list below all the LAs to which I propose allocating a whole number of seats. Normally, the whole number is one: i.e. the constituency and LA are coterminous. In cases where the LA gets two or more whole constituencies, this is noted. There are 38 LAs on the list.
Some of these LAs already consist of a whole number of seats on the current boundaries; but in other cases, I'm pleased to have been able to bring the constituency boundary in line with the LA - these are marked with a hash (#).
LAs with whole number of seats (1 unless stated)
East Mids NE Derbyshire # High Peak NW Leics W Lindsey # Mansfield
Eastern Cambridge # Welwyn Hatfield #
London Bromley (3) # Hackney (2) Kensington & Chelsea # Tower Hamlets (2)
North East Darlington # N Tyneside (2)
North West Carlisle # Rochdale (2) Oldham (2) #
South East Dartford # Isle of Wight (2) Shepway # Southampton (2) # Tunbridge Wells #
South West Bristol (4) N Devon N Somerset (2) Swindon (2) Taunton Deane
West Mids Bromsgrove Cannock Chase Lichfield # Staffs Moorlands # Wyre Forest
Yorks & Humb York (2)
Wales Cardiff (3) #
Scotland Aberdeen (2) # East Lothian Glasgow (6) Na h-Eileanan an Iar
N Ireland Belfast (3) #
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Adrian
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Post by Adrian on Jun 1, 2016 13:05:45 GMT
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Post by islington on Jun 1, 2016 14:37:09 GMT
That's terrific news. Hope you don't mind if I post some of my own thoughts in 'comments'. I see you've split England into 42 areas. Just for the record, I took a similar approach of creating 'groups' consisting of one or more first-tier authorities. I ended up with 75 such 'groups' across the whole UK (55 in England), which works out at a very neat (but wholly unplanned) average of exactly 8 seats per group. The largest group is North West Group E (NW-E), which is eight boroughs of Gtr Manchester (all except Oldham and Rochdale), plus Cheshire East. This has 1865973 electors = entitlement of 24.96 = 25 seats. It is closely followed by WM-B (the former W Mids met county): 1862769 = 24.91 = 25. Next comes SE-G (Kent & E Sussex): 1793352 = 23.99 = 24. At the other end, five 'groups' have only a single seat: the smallest is SC-N (Western Isles): 20887 = 0.28 = 1. The next smallest, predictably, is SC-M (Orkney & Shetland): 33229 = 0.44 = 1. Next comes the smallest unprotected 'group', NE-D (Darlington): 74929 = 1.00 = 1. Of the twelve nations/regions, Scotland has the most 'groups' with 14; Northern Ireland the fewest with 2. Of English regions, London has the most with 11 and W Mids the fewest with 3.
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Adrian
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Post by Adrian on Jun 10, 2016 2:21:22 GMT
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Post by islington on Jun 23, 2016 12:41:51 GMT
This is something of a random query, but I've been wondering about it -
Does anyone know whether the good folks at the BCE (or the other Commissions) ever look in at these pages to see what we're cooking up?
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Adrian
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Post by Adrian on Jun 23, 2016 14:00:45 GMT
I was assuming you were one of them, Issy. ;-)
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Post by Deleted on Jun 23, 2016 20:34:20 GMT
I would imagine their eyes have wandered over here in time.
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Post by islington on Jun 23, 2016 21:13:18 GMT
I was assuming you were one of them, Issy. ;-) Was I that obvious?
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jun 28, 2016 13:25:29 GMT
In the House of Lords:
†Monday 18 July at 2.30pm †*Lord Tyler to ask Her Majesty’s Government what steps they will take to ensure that constituency boundary revisions take full account of the actual electoral registers on 23 June.
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