By-election - January 7th

[maxque]

Botcherby - Carlisle BC - Terry Scarborough (Labour) died. He was a councillor since 2003 and Chairman of the Development Control Committee.
2015-2019 term

2015: Lab 822, Ind 725, Con 516, UKIP 345, Grn 75
2014: Ind 773, Lab 358, UKIP 217, Con 131
2012: Lab 693, Ind 311, Con 141, UKIP 107, Grn 24
2011: Lab 720, Ind 432, Con 287
2010: Ind 1119, Lab 822, Con 443, BNP 134
2008: Lab 509, Con 443, Ind 313, BNP 145
2007: Lab 618, Con 400, BNP 217
2006: Lab 602, Con 314, Ind 168
2004: Lab 813, Con 602
2003: Lab 698, Con 452
2002: Lab 761, Con 445

Robert Currie (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Jack Paton (Independent)
Stephen Sidgwick (The Labour Party Candidate)

[The Bishop]

I presume the Independent who won by sizeable margins in 2010 and 2014 is the same person. Are they ex-Labour?

[Khunanup]

The Indy is the one who came second in May. Could be very interesting.

[East Anglian Lefty]

Dec 29, 2015 13:37:42 GMT The Bishop said:

I presume the Independent who won by sizeable margins in 2010 and 2014 is the same person. Are they ex-Labour?

The independent is also the county councillor. No sign of previous Labour affiliation on LEAP.

[andrewteale]

Dec 29, 2015 10:26:04 GMT @trident said:

I wonder if this ward has been affected by the recent flooding?

Very badly. It's Eden floodplain along the Warwick Road, between the M6 and Carlisle United's ground. Flood defence policy could be a very important topic here.

[David Ashforth]

CARLISLE - Botcherby

Ward map

Census map

[maxque]

I didn't found much on the Internet, but it seems a disagreement between Labour and the 2010/2014 independent is housing, with Labour usually siding with the Liverpool-based Riverside Group and the Independent with their local opponents.

The new independent, however, seems to campaign mostly about dropped kerbs, being a mobility scooter user.

[Deleted]

Dec 29, 2015 22:33:44 GMT maxque said:

I didn't found much on the Internet, but it seems a disagreement between Labour and the 2010/2014 independent is housing, with Labour usually siding with the Liverpool-based Riverside Group and the Independent with their local opponents.

The new independent, however, seems to campaign mostly about dropped kerbs, being a mobility scooter user.

possibly not the biggest issue atm .... if there is any campaigning at all ??

[maxque]

Dec 30, 2015 10:10:38 GMT @robin said:

Dec 29, 2015 22:33:44 GMT maxque said:

I didn't found much on the Internet, but it seems a disagreement between Labour and the 2010/2014 independent is housing, with Labour usually siding with the Liverpool-based Riverside Group and the Independent with their local opponents.

The new independent, however, seems to campaign mostly about dropped kerbs, being a mobility scooter user.

possibly not the biggest issue atm .... if there is any campaigning at all ??

I meant, in general, as a person. I suspect there is no campaign at all, the only trace of the by-election on Internet is the official paperwork on the council website.

Even political twitters of the area are all about flooding.

[Sibboleth]

Perhaps John Kerry can lend a hand and campaign by yacht?

[andrewteale]

This was the preview I sent to Kris:

Welcome to the 2016 psephological year in the United Kingdom. Thanks to the two people who enquired after your columnist's health: he had a hernia operation just before Christmas and recovery has been rather slow. However, there is no problem in putting together a preview for the first council by-election of the year.

BOTCHERBY, Carlisle city council, Cumbria; caused by the death of Labour councillor Terry Scarborough. A former chairman of the Botcherby Community Centre who had played football for Carlisle United, Scarborough had served on Carlisle city council since 2003.

Northern-based readers of this column might have noticed that the weather over the last two-and-a-half months has been filthy. Rain upon rain upon rain upon rain upon rain upon rain continuously since at least the middle of October or so. Your columnist still shudders at the memory of the back half of 2009, when it rained continuously from Wimbledon to Christmas. What happens when you get all this rain? Flooding, that's what. A big problem in a low-lying place like Botcherby ward, an eastern Carlisle suburb incorporated into the city in 1912 and located along the A69 road towards Newcastle, between the rivers Eden and Petteril. And so it came to pass that when Storm Desmond hit Carlisle on 6th December, Botcherby ward's flood defences - installed at a cost of tens of millions of pounds following a similarly appalling flood in 2005 - were overtopped.

It so happened that while all this devastation was going on, nominations were open for a council by-election in Botcherby ward. It remains to be seen how many electors are left to vote here, and it is notable that two of the four polling stations for this by-election are portakabins. The ward itself runs south from the A69 Warwick Road and includes not just Botcherby but also part of the Harraby area, across the Newcastle-Carlisle and Settle-Carlisle railway lines to the south. It's a very working-class part of Carlisle, with high levels of social renting and in the top 60 wards in England and Wales for semi-routine occupations and part-time working.

Botcherby ward has existed since 1983 and was traditionally as safe Labour as you'd expect with that demographic profile; even at the Labour low point of 1995 they beat the Tories here 82-18. In fact, the only year in which the Tories carried Botcherby was 1999 - fortunately for them, that was the year the current ward boundaries came into effect, so Labour had to spend the next four years getting their seats back, Terry Scarborough completing the process in 2003. In recent years Labour have come under pressure in the ward from independents: Robert Betton became the ward's county councillor in 2009 and was elected to the city council in 2010. In his final re-election in May Scarborough was only 97 votes ahead of independent candidate John (Jack) Paton: in terms of votes Labour had 33%, Paton 29%, the Tories 21% and UKIP 14%. Until 2013 the ward had the same boundaries as the Botcherby division of Cumbria county council (the present Botcherby division is rather different), and the relevant county council results are shown in the table below.

Defending for Labour is Stephen Sidgwick, who in May contested his home ward, the hopeless Longtown and Rockliffe. Jack Paton stands again as an independent, and the Tories have selected Robert Currie who in May was on the wrong side of a photofinish in the city's Belle Vue ward. UKIP aren't bothering this time, so those are your three candidates.

Parliamentary constituency: Carlisle
Cumbria county council division: Botcherby (most), Harraby North (part)
ONS Travel to Work Area: Carlisle

May 2015 result Lab 822 Ind 725 C 516 UKIP 345 Grn 75
May 2014 result Ind 773 Lab 358 UKIP 217 C 131
May 2012 result Lab 693 Ind 311 C 141 UKIP 107 Grn 24
May 2011 result Lab 720 Ind 432 C 287
May 2010 result Ind 1119 Lab 822 C 443 BNP 134
June 2009 county council result Ind 507 Lab 428 C 366 BNP 116 LD 85 Grn 38
May 2008 result Lab 509 C 443 Ind 313 BNP 145
May 2007 result Lab 618 C 400 BNP 217
May 2006 result Lab 602 C 314 Ind 168
May 2005 county council result Lab 1456 C 591
June 2004 result Lab 813 C 602
May 2003 result Lab 698 C 452
May 2002 result Lab 761 C 445
May 2001 county council result Lab 1361 C 581 LD 320
May 2000 result Lab 484 C 456 Socialist Alternative 305
May 1999 result C 611/609/576 Lab 575/557/549

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Turnout in Botcherby is 17.8%.

[middleenglander]

Jan 7, 2016 22:58:05 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Turnout in Botcherby is 17.8%.

Around 830 vote then

Independent gain

[Davıd Boothroyd]

CARLISLE Botcherby

Jack Paton (Independent) 381 (51.1%)
Stephen Sidgwick (The Labour Party Candidate) 250 (33.5%)
Robert Currie (The Conservative Party Candidate) 115 (15.4%)

[middleenglander]

Jan 7, 2016 23:05:44 GMT middleenglander said:

Jan 7, 2016 22:58:05 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Turnout in Botcherby is 17.8%.

Around 830 vote then

Independent gain

The electorate in May was 4,672 falling to ~4,190 now.

[justin124]

Given the absence of a UKIP candidate that seems quite a poor result for the Tories.

[evergreenadam]

Jan 7, 2016 23:49:45 GMT middleenglander said:

Jan 7, 2016 23:05:44 GMT middleenglander said:

Around 830 vote then

Independent gain

The electorate in May was 4,672 falling to ~4,190 now.

Interesting, if that is indicative of the effect of the introduction of Individual Voter Registration then the electorate in Labour seats is going to fall considerably.

[middleenglander]

Jan 7, 2016 23:53:50 GMT evergreenadam said:

Jan 7, 2016 23:49:45 GMT middleenglander said:

The electorate in May was 4,672 falling to ~4,190 now.

Interesting, if that is indicative of the effect of the introduction of Individual Voter Registration then the electorate in Labour seats is going to fall considerably.

The electorate in Cornwall, Launceston Central next week looks to be around 2,615 compared to 2,999 in May 2013.

[oldwarhorse]

Jan 7, 2016 23:53:50 GMT evergreenadam said:

Jan 7, 2016 23:49:45 GMT middleenglander said:

The electorate in May was 4,672 falling to ~4,190 now.

Interesting, if that is indicative of the effect of the introduction of Individual Voter Registration then the electorate in Labour seats is going to fall considerably.

That's surely the true purpose of the exercise. ...

Sent from my GT-I9195 using proboards

[maxque]

Jan 8, 2016 0:31:29 GMT oldwarhorse said:

Jan 7, 2016 23:53:50 GMT evergreenadam said:

Interesting, if that is indicative of the effect of the introduction of Individual Voter Registration then the electorate in Labour seats is going to fall considerably.

That's surely the true purpose of the exercise. ...

Sent from my GT-I9195 using proboards

At last, someone seeing through the cheap Tory's attempts to cheat elections by grossly underepresentating cities and students.