By-elections - November 5th

[Dave Morgan]

Looks like SNP and Conservatives elected on the first round

[Deleted]

Con gain from LD then. Disappointing. But there we go.

[jollyroger93]

Scottish tories won the first preference votes! wow

[iain]

Con - 36.3% (+9.8%)
SNP - 35.4% (+0.7%)
LD - 22.9% (+4.7%)
Labour - 4.8% (+4.8%)
Libertarian - 0.5% (+0.5%)

[marksenior]

A very good result for the Conservatives and also not bad for the Lib Dems who should get their seat back in the full elections .

[Tony Otim]

That is a very good result for the Conservatives.

[johnr]

Nov 6, 2015 11:59:18 GMT iain said:

Con - 36.3% (+9.8%)
SNP - 35.4% (+0.7%)
LD - 22.9% (+4.7%)
Labour - 4.8% (+4.8%)
Libertarian - 0.5% (+0.5%)

How could everyone have gained? Was there a big independent candidate last time?

[The Bishop]

Independent - who eventually got elected - and Green candidates in 2012 (but not now)

[right]

Nov 6, 2015 12:18:00 GMT johnr said:

Nov 6, 2015 11:59:18 GMT iain said:

Con - 36.3% (+9.8%)
SNP - 35.4% (+0.7%)
LD - 22.9% (+4.7%)
Labour - 4.8% (+4.8%)
Libertarian - 0.5% (+0.5%)

How could everyone have gained?

Hippy teachers

[The Bishop]

It is a good Tory result - but it is notable their strongest recent performances have tended to be where absent Independents have left a "gap".

And another rather anaemic display from the SNP - when was the last time their by-election share actually fell?

[john07]

Nov 6, 2015 12:56:22 GMT The Bishop said:

It is a good Tory result - but it is notable their strongest recent performances have tended to be where absent Independents have left a "gap".

And another rather anaemic display from the SNP - when was the last time their by-election share actually fell?

Is the Teflon finally starting to wear off?

Maybe the culture of anti-SNP tactical voting is starting to emerge?

[Deleted]

Difficult when you are fighting a cult. The SNP are all over the shop regarding tax credits and Dugdale has landed a blow. However the acolytes still believe.

[justin124]

The Tories also had the top first preference vote in 2012.

[Tony Otim]

Nov 6, 2015 13:13:25 GMT justin124 said:

The Tories also had the top first preference vote in 2012.

Only because the SNP put up 2 candidates - the SNP got 1430 1st preferences to the Tories 1091.

[john07]

Nov 6, 2015 13:07:08 GMT cogload said:

Difficult when you are fighting a cult. The SNP are all over the shop regarding tax credits and Dugdale has landed a blow. However the acolytes still believe.

Indeed. I recall getting very depressed during the referendum campaign about how gullible much of the electorate were.

There was one vox pops with a woman who admitted that she was very worried about what currency would be used in an independent Scotland. However, she said, Mr Salmond says we can have a currency union, so that's OK.

Of course the Salmond vision of a currency union was not simply that Scotland would use Sterling but it would be a partnership of equals jointly agreeing monetary policy. This is such a ludicrous suggestion that it should have been laughed off on all sides. But many believed.

[markgoodair]

Cameron should give Scotland full fiscal independence ASAP . The wheels would come off the SNP bandwagon pretty quickly.

[myth11]

Nov 7, 2015 8:40:02 GMT markgoodair said:

Cameron should give Scotland full fiscal independence ASAP . The wheels would come off the SNP bandwagon pretty quickly.

he can not as the uk does not have full fiscal independence.

[Deleted]

Nov 6, 2015 12:58:07 GMT john07 said:

Is the Teflon finally starting to wear off?

Maybe the culture of anti-SNP tactical voting is starting to emerge?

Well, the swingometer is bound to go in the other direction at some point. How far will the unionist parties go in the pursuit of tactical voting to kill off the SNP? It's one thing to say "Vote tactically for me". It's quite another to say "Vote tactically for him"

[john07]

Nov 7, 2015 18:02:05 GMT @davedare said:

Nov 6, 2015 12:58:07 GMT john07 said:

Is the Teflon finally starting to wear off?

Maybe the culture of anti-SNP tactical voting is starting to emerge?

Well, the swingometer is bound to go in the other direction at some point. How far will the unionist parties go in the pursuit of tactical voting to kill off the SNP? It's one thing to say "Vote tactically for me". It's quite another to say "Vote tactically for him"

You miss the point, it is nothing to do with the parties and never has been. It is a spontaneous decision by individual voters to go for the least worst option. No party has ever gone into an election with a 'do not vote for us' policy.

The Conservatives were progressively wiped out in Scotland from 1987 to 1997 by anti-Tory voters opting for Labour, SNP, Lib Dems or anyone who appeared likely to beat the Conservatives.

This may be beginning to unwind as the Conservatives are not really seen as a threat post devolution. A good many SNP votes came from pro-Union types. Will they go somewhere else?

I doubt if we should view this as pro-Union tactical voting but more as anti-SNP tactical voting. The longer the SNP stay in power and the more arrogant and overbearing they become, the more likely this is to happen.

[marksenior]

The Conservative gain could well give them a bit of a problem in the full elections as they will have 2 councillors chasing the one seat that they will only be able win in a 4 seat STV full election .