timmullen1
Labour
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Posts: 11,823 
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Post by timmullen1 on Oct 30, 2015 0:16:42 GMT
Per Britain Elects, Liberal Democrats GAIN Hellingly from Conservative.
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Post by andrewteale on Oct 30, 2015 0:57:08 GMT
Hellingly figures reported as LD 875 C 222 Ind 154.
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,308
Member is Online
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Post by maxque on Oct 30, 2015 1:17:26 GMT
Hellingly figures reported as LD 875 C 222 Ind 154. LD 69.9% (+34.9) Con 17.8% (-30.3) Ind 12.3% |
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Post by markgoodair on Oct 30, 2015 4:07:46 GMT
Hellingly figures reported as LD 875 C 222 Ind 154. LD 69.9% (+34.9) Con 17.8% (-30.3) Ind 12.3% An outstanding result. Well done. |
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Post by carlton43 on Oct 30, 2015 9:43:17 GMT
LD 69.9% (+34.9) Con 17.8% (-30.3) Ind 12.3% An outstanding result. Well done. That is so dramatic that it must be down to local personalities. No taking away the excellent LD fillip and morale boost but I wouldn't read too much into it yet. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 30, 2015 9:46:46 GMT
On the evidence of by-elections, UKIP support seems to have subsided roughly to May 2012 levels. That seems consistent with their showing of 8-10% in the few opinion polls that are coming though at the moment.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 30, 2015 11:39:45 GMT
Hellingly figures reported as LD 875 C 222 Ind 154. LD 69.9% (+34.9) Con 17.8% (-30.3) Ind 12.3% Evidently a re-gain by the LD cllr who lost in in May, so a local election/by-election turnout rather than a GE turnout. & of course local residents are not likely to be that impressed by a Tory quitting so quickly (but who maybe didn't expect or want to win in the first place) |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 30, 2015 12:23:34 GMT
And quit slagging off the Tories, and stood for re-election on an anti-Tory platform. Though the LibDems ended up the clear beneficiaries.
That ward in Peterborough is an unusual one, btw. Tories romping home in 2011 and 2012, then Labour suddenly became competitive last year.....
Anyone know what is going on there?
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Post by gwynthegriff on Oct 30, 2015 12:30:35 GMT
Congleton result:
Con 700 36.5%
LD 542 28.3%
Lab 409 21.3%
UKIP 266 13.9%
I'll let someone else work out swings, but not what I was expecting!
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
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Post by timmullen1 on Oct 30, 2015 14:14:31 GMT
Congleton result: Con 700 36.5% LD 542 28.3% Lab 409 21.3% UKIP 266 13.9% I'll let someone else work out swings, but not what I was expecting! There was a time in the 1990's I think when the LDs were very strong around the Congleton Parliamentary seat and Joan, now Baroness, Walmsley, was seen as a genuine threat to Ann Winterton, but some dodgy financial deals put paid to them, and it reverted back to its traditionally safe Blue status. Cheshire East council isn't winning any popularity contests in the South of the area which gets covered by our media in North Staffordshire, so maybe that unpopularity is spreading to Congleton and the LDs have been the beneficiaries yesterday. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Oct 30, 2015 14:25:58 GMT
The council leader of the day, Linda Short, became a hugely controversial figure in 1999/2000 and eventually the cause of a split in the local Liberal Democrats when she was forced from office. The resulting split meant that the Lib Dems put themselves out of the running in Congleton long before the post-2010 collapse.
From what I understand the main issues at the moment are the council's inability to get to grip with planning, as its local plan has been delayed and delayed and the council is unable to plan its housing delivery properly. If it refuses housing schemes, the developer appeals and the council can't defend the decision. So it is forced to grant schemes it would prefer to refuse. Either way the objectors blame the council for selling them out.
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Post by gwynthegriff on Oct 30, 2015 16:49:37 GMT
Congleton result: Con 700 36.5% LD 542 28.3% Lab 409 21.3% UKIP 266 13.9% I'll let someone else work out swings, but not what I was expecting! There was a time in the 1990's I think when the LDs were very strong around the Congleton Parliamentary seat and Joan, now Baroness, Walmsley, was seen as a genuine threat to Ann Winterton, but some dodgy financial deals put paid to them, and it reverted back to its traditionally safe Blue status. Cheshire East council isn't winning any popularity contests in the South of the area which gets covered by our media in North Staffordshire, so maybe that unpopularity is spreading to Congleton and the LDs have been the beneficiaries yesterday. Not quite. It was an issue around declaration of interests in a planning application, and the subsequent behaviour of the Group Leader. An application was supported by Lib Dem councillors. It emerged that the applicant had provided storage for Lib Dem posters. There was a suggestion that Lib Dem committee members should have declared an interest (they hadn't). There was a suggestion that the Leader had influenced the committee members. This was denied. Unfortunately one of the councillors gave evidence to the effect that "no, no, there was no mention even made of it at the group meeting". Which was fine, until it emerged that he'd not actually been at the group meeting. Oh dear. Instead of doing the sensible thing - "I don't believe I have done anything wrong, but I shall stand down as Leader, return to the back benches and work hard for my constituents to seek re-election when my term of office ends" - she insisted on continuing as Leader, splitting the Group. At least, that's my recollection. Allegedly. Mind you, since it's only ancient hacks like me who remember the incident, I doubt it had much impact on the byelection. |
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Post by president1 on Oct 30, 2015 16:56:43 GMT
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Post by gwynthegriff on Oct 30, 2015 16:57:40 GMT
Congleton result: Con 700 36.5% LD 542 28.3% Lab 409 21.3% UKIP 266 13.9% I'll let someone else work out swings, but not what I was expecting! Well, since nobody else has done it ... Con 700 36.5% -- 8.1% LD 542 28.3% +16.7% Lab 409 21.3% -- 2.8% UKIP 266 13.9% -- 5.9% Ts & Cs apply: May 2015 percentages are based on average vote per party; Independent vote disregarded. The value of this approach may go down as well as up. |
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Post by middleenglander on Oct 30, 2015 19:45:23 GMT
Not sure any wider conclusions can be drawn from this by-election. May 2013: Elected - Liberal Democrat 399, Conservative 293, Mebyon Kernow 278, Independent 267 Not elected: Labour 246, Conservative 235, No Description 210, Conservative 164, Independent 121, Independent 72 The winning Labour candidate yesterday was the runner up in 2013. The majority of 20 over the Conservative (246 votes to 226) and the spread of votes in 2013 suggests personalities play as much if not a greater role than politics. |
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Post by linders on Nov 5, 2015 8:26:37 GMT
I understand that the LD candidate in Congleton had some significant support from Cheadle and Hazel Grove Liberal Democrats seeking an opportunity to start redressing the balance from May. In those circumstances no surprise to see their vote go up from a low base.
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