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Post by greenhert on Jan 7, 2016 20:28:13 GMT
GLA list vote Something like: Lab 39.5 Con 35 Grn 7.6 UKIP 7.4 LD 5.5 Others 5
Which, assuming that Labour gain Havering & Redbridge from the Conservatives (and not lose anything back) in terms of single member assembly seats, would give us in London Assembly seat terms:
Labour 11 (-1, 2 list seats), Conservative 9 (+0, 4 list seats), Green 2 (+0, 2 list seats), UKIP 2 (+2, 2 list seats), Liberal Democrats 1 (-1, 1 list seat), others 0.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 9, 2016 14:50:31 GMT
Just for fun I did have a play around with the percentages changing them into votes. link has the details
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Post by Deleted on Apr 10, 2016 7:11:41 GMT
Caroline P. has run a pretty good campaign (in context). If she could snaffle another 3/4% we might be able to coat tail a little in the assembly. #clutchesatstraws
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Post by finsobruce on Apr 10, 2016 10:29:16 GMT
When Goldsmith was first chosen I remember it being suggested that the famously environmentalist Goldsmith could attract some Green second preference votes. Looking at the second preferences in this poll however they seem to go the same way as you would expect for any other Tory candidate i.e. Green voters going overwhelmingly for Khan over Goldsmith, Lib Dem voters more even but leaning towards Khan, UKIP voters overwhelmingly for Goldsmith. This is because they are "London" green voters. Outside of London or other metro areas the proposition might have carried more weight. |
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hedgehog
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Post by hedgehog on Apr 17, 2016 22:25:16 GMT
When Goldsmith was first chosen I remember it being suggested that the famously environmentalist Goldsmith could attract some Green second preference votes. Looking at the second preferences in this poll however they seem to go the same way as you would expect for any other Tory candidate i.e. Green voters going overwhelmingly for Khan over Goldsmith, Lib Dem voters more even but leaning towards Khan, UKIP voters overwhelmingly for Goldsmith. This is because they are "London" green voters. Outside of London or other metro areas the proposition might have carried more weight. I was one of those London Green voters, who had planned to give Zac my second preference vote, but as the campaign has gone along ive simply became more and more disappointed with him. Im not planning to use a second preference vote now. |
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Post by finsobruce on Apr 21, 2016 13:58:08 GMT
I think we can rule out a late Galloway surge too.  |
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Post by greenchristian on Apr 21, 2016 17:51:34 GMT
From the polls, it looks very much like the most interesting part of the result will be the 3rd-5th place, it looks consistently neck-and-neck between us, the Lib Dems, and UKIP.
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Post by lennon on Apr 21, 2016 18:35:51 GMT
From the polls, it looks very much like the most interesting part of the result will be the 3rd-5th place, it looks consistently neck-and-neck between us, the Lib Dems, and UKIP. Agree - has the potential to be interesting. Genuine question, but if someone was planning on split ticket voting, would you prefer a 1st preference Mayoral vote, or a Constituency Assembly vote? (Clearly London wide Assembly list would be highest...) |
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Post by greenchristian on Apr 21, 2016 20:41:21 GMT
From the polls, it looks very much like the most interesting part of the result will be the 3rd-5th place, it looks consistently neck-and-neck between us, the Lib Dems, and UKIP. Agree - has the potential to be interesting. Genuine question, but if someone was planning on split ticket voting, would you prefer a 1st preference Mayoral vote, or a Constituency Assembly vote? (Clearly London wide Assembly list would be highest...) Since we're extremely unlikely to be challenging for any Constituency Assembly seats, I'd say a 1st preference Mayoral vote would help us out more (beating UKIP and the Lib Dems would make for better media reporting of our result), even if the split ticket voter lives in a seat where I really want our constituency candidate to do well. |
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Post by carlton43 on Apr 21, 2016 23:43:10 GMT
From the polls, it looks very much like the most interesting part of the result will be the 3rd-5th place, it looks consistently neck-and-neck between us, the Lib Dems, and UKIP. Really? The 'most interesting part of the result'  Bald men scuffle in dust over toothless comb!!! |
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Post by politicalmatrix on May 1, 2016 16:53:02 GMT
Not a good night for the Greens at all if they can't even hold their two assembly seats.
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john07
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Post by john07 on May 15, 2016 1:25:19 GMT
When Goldsmith was first chosen I remember it being suggested that the famously environmentalist Goldsmith could attract some Green second preference votes. Looking at the second preferences in this poll however they seem to go the same way as you would expect for any other Tory candidate i.e. Green voters going overwhelmingly for Khan over Goldsmith, Lib Dem voters more even but leaning towards Khan, UKIP voters overwhelmingly for Goldsmith. Maybe the Green voters in London are not 'green' enough to swallow the Goldsmith narrative. |
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Post by Merseymike on May 15, 2016 19:20:47 GMT
Also there didn't seem to be a particularly strong emphasis on environmental issues anyway in Goldsmith's campaign.
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neilm
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Post by neilm on May 18, 2016 4:05:46 GMT
From the polls, it looks very much like the most interesting part of the result will be the 3rd-5th place, it looks consistently neck-and-neck between us, the Lib Dems, and UKIP. Really? The 'most interesting part of the result' Bald men scuffle in dust over toothless comb!!! If UKIP had come third you'd have been chuffed and said so, surely? |
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Bald men scuffle in dust over toothless comb!!!
