Combining Two Elections

[johnloony]

For many years I have a had a fantasy idea of "what if" the 1992 and 1997 general elections had been combined into one event? The scenario goes like this:

In November 1990, Margaret Thatcher gets the extra 4 votes necessary to win the leadership election, and stays on as PM.
Then, there are several resignations from her cabinet by ministers who had urged her to go. They are replaced by third-rate right-wingers. Mrs Thatcher herself becomes increasingly detached from the ability to judge the political mood, and digs in and insists on staying and fighting the next general election.

1990-92: the Conservative government enters a period of profound unpopularity, with several by-election losses.
The economic downturn ("Black Wednesday" or whatever it was called) happens a few months before the 1992 election, instead of a few months after it. Meanwhile, some unspecified event causes Kinnock to be replaced as Labour leader by Tony Blair or whoever some time between 1987 and 1991.

1992: Labour landslide, of the type which actually happened in 1997. Thatcher has the satisfaction of being voted out of office by the electorate, instead of being "betrayed" by her own parliamentary colleagues. She loses her own seat in Finchley.

Overall, it would have been more exciting for the winning side and a more satisfying type of defeat for the losing side.

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It has recently occurred to me that one could similarly combine the 2010 and 2015 elections: Gordon Brown loses his own seat to the SNP, and the Labour government is kicked out by a majority Conservative government in one swell foop, without five messy days of negotiating a coalition.

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What other examples or fantasy ideas do people have?

[The Bishop]

Kinnock would have been replaced by John Smith in that event (as was the case IRL)

[Pete Whitehead]

Aug 21, 2015 2:05:57 GMT johnloony said:

It has recently occurred to me that one could similarly combine the 2010 and 2015 elections: Gordon Brown loses his own seat to the SNP, and the Labour government is kicked out by a majority Conservative government in one swell foop, without five messy days years of negotiating a coalition.

Fixed that for you..

This is an interesting idea. It would particularly be interesting to see which seats would have fallen if you apply the 92-97 swing to the 1987 results. Of course it would have been on the old boundaries so some seats (eg St Albans) would not go Labour but at the same time even for some seats which did go Labour in 1997 it would be hard to envisage them going in a 1992 landslide (eg Hove, Harrow West) while others such as Aldridge Brownhills or Meriden would then have been more likley

[Tony Otim]

Aug 21, 2015 2:05:57 GMT johnloony said:

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It has recently occurred to me that one could similarly combine the 2010 and 2015 elections: Gordon Brown loses his own seat to the SNP, and the Labour government is kicked out by a majority Conservative government in one swell foop, without five messy days of negotiating a coalition.

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The problem is that without five years of coalition, a conservative majority becomes highly implausible as the LD vote would surely have held up much better and at least 20 or so Conservative gains go out the window.

[slon]

It is possible that with Thatcher in charge Black Wednesday might not have happened.
Whatever else she was, she was an economic pragmatist and not afraid of taking decisions.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Aug 25, 2015 9:25:23 GMT slon said:

It is possible that with Thatcher in charge Black Wednesday might not have happened.
Whatever else she was, she was an economic pragmatist and not afraid of taking decisions.

It was under Mrs Thatcher that the UK joined the Exchange Rate Mechanism.

[slon]

Aug 25, 2015 9:57:58 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Aug 25, 2015 9:25:23 GMT slon said:

It is possible that with Thatcher in charge Black Wednesday might not have happened.
Whatever else she was, she was an economic pragmatist and not afraid of taking decisions.

It was under Mrs Thatcher that the UK joined the Exchange Rate Mechanism.

That was not such a bad decision in itself, there were good reasons to imagine it would be beneficial.
What went wrong was re-unification causing near deflation in Germany while inflation roared away in the UK.

The mistake was trying to stick with a policy so dig a bigger and bigger hole .... because to abandon the policy would seem like a political failure.
A bit like our policy with immigration and Calais.

Thatcher for all her faults was a decision maker, not afraid of appearing to be wrong.
 

[john07]

Aug 25, 2015 9:57:58 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Aug 25, 2015 9:25:23 GMT slon said:

It is possible that with Thatcher in charge Black Wednesday might not have happened.
Whatever else she was, she was an economic pragmatist and not afraid of taking decisions.

It was under Mrs Thatcher that the UK joined the Exchange Rate Mechanism.

And at an unsustainably high exchange rate.

[manchesterman]

Interesting scenarios johnloony

Dont you think though that, rather than Thatcher being more satisfied at being voted out (in a landslide) by the electorate, she would have actually preferred to go the way she did. She could spin it to the effect that she was never ousted by "the people" but some spineless colleagues who lost their nerve..or to use a sporting metaphor, she would have been undefeated "on the pitch/in the ring" etc)