Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Aug 15, 2015 23:34:32 GMT
The pre-1974 Wolves SW was a natural marginal not a natural safe seat: Powell built up a huge personal vote very quickly (he was an extremely effective constituency MP, whatever else can be said about him).
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Aug 16, 2015 6:28:04 GMT
The same thing happened in 1983. At that election the swing from Lab to Con was 3.9% and yet, despite that, based on the notional election in 1979 Labour managed to "gain" Liverpool, Broadgreen, Birmingham, Erdington, Glasgow, Cathcart and perhaps the most famous one Crewe and Nantwich (suggesting that these should have been Labour seats to begin with, not Con seats). Similar to what happened in 1997. Gordon was a Lib Dem win in 1992 with a majority of 274, however when the boundaries changed (and it extended upwards into the areas occupied by Moray and Banff and Buchan) it turned into a Conservative heartland with a majority of nearly 9,000. That was clearly a mistake as well, as in 1997, Sir Malcolm Bruce "gained" the seat with a majority of nearly 7,000 (suggesting that it shouldn't have been classed as a Conservative seat in the first place)
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 16, 2015 8:51:52 GMT
Broadgreen would definitely have been Tory in 1979. Not totally sure about the others.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 16, 2015 13:11:01 GMT
The same thing happened in 1983. At that election the swing from Lab to Con was 3.9% and yet, despite that, based on the notional election in 1979 Labour managed to "gain" Liverpool, Broadgreen, Birmingham, Erdington, Glasgow, Cathcart and perhaps the most famous one Crewe and Nantwich (suggesting that these should have been Labour seats to begin with, not Con seats). Similar to what happened in 1997. Gordon was a Lib Dem win in 1992 with a majority of 274, however when the boundaries changed (and it extended upwards into the areas occupied by Moray and Banff and Buchan) it turned into a Conservative heartland with a majority of nearly 9,000. That was clearly a mistake as well, as in 1997, Sir Malcolm Bruce "gained" the seat with a majority of nearly 7,000 (suggesting that it shouldn't have been classed as a Conservative seat in the first place) I don't see how it is 'the same thing' as we are not talking about a notional Labour seat being gained against the trend (an example of that here would be NW Norfolk which I'm dubious about). There is nothing that unusual about parties gaining seats against the trend anyway - there are usually examples at every election and there are other seats in Birmingham and Liverpool which swung to Labour in 1983. I don't have a view as to whether the Crewe & Nantwich notionals for 1979 were correct ot=r not but as regards Gordon it certainly looks like the notionals overstated the extent of the Tory lead. That is not the same as saying that there would not have been a Tory lead at all - there almost certainly would |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 16, 2015 13:16:07 GMT
It seems clear that the pre-1997 "notionals" overstated the LibDems in Aberdeen North and understated them in Gordon.
A similar pattern can arguably be seen in Forest of Dean/Tewkesbury, which might help expain Labour's "underperformance" in the former.
(though I accept it is an area which has trended away from Labour long term anyway)
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 16, 2015 13:27:46 GMT
As I mentioned elsewhere I worked out notional ward rsults for all of England for 1992 and was thus able to generate my own notional results for the new parliamentary seats. On my figures Forest of Dean would have been Conservative in 1992 and while I can't claim my methods were superior to others subsequent results do tend to confirm this is likely. Same thing with Swindon North. Sadly I no longer have any of this data which was all in paper format and was destroyed by damp
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Post by afleitch on Aug 16, 2015 13:46:48 GMT
It seems clear that the pre-1997 "notionals" overstated the LibDems in Aberdeen North and understated them in Gordon. A similar pattern can arguably be seen in Forest of Dean/Tewkesbury, which might help expain Labour's "underperformance" in the former. (though I accept it is an area which has trended away from Labour long term anyway) The 1992 notionals in Scotland used the 1992 District results which probably wasn't the best as the district contests were less partisan than the regional ones. Using the 1990 regionals gives a narrower Tory gain in Gordon because as you say they concentrated too much of the Liberal Democrat vote in Aberdeen North. Assuming that the 'not Tory' vote for Ewing and Salmond in the parts added from Moray and Banff would back Bruce then if it was actually fought in 1992 the Lib Dems would win it. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 31, 2015 18:37:27 GMT
I mentioned that the 1970 notionals appear to have calculated to the nearest hundred. On closer inspection it transpires that there were also several that were done right down to the nearest vote. There must have been a reason that some of them were rounded. Where there were minor boundary changes in 1974, in most cases, no notional results were calculated and the swings were calculated from the actual 1970 results. There appear to have been a small number of seats where, despite major boundary changes, the actual 1970 figures are shown (Barking, Motherwell and Wishaw, Oswestry, Shrewsbury, Torbay, Totnes). I have updated my spreadsheet detailing what the general situation in respect of the boundaries/notional results were for each constituency. The 1970 results (both notional and actual) are shown alongside the Feb 74 results, with the Butler swings included. I have also included Feb 74 gains and losses. docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dX47DuTxmFg6SXaizeo3TQwvlEEOKPdCWQCTABWyN40/edit#gid=0 |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 31, 2015 18:47:21 GMT
Were there 'major' boundary changes in those seats? I think they were minor in most of those seats (or non-existant in Oswestry). IN Barking there was some territory moved into Newham South as the area had been moved into Newham previously but this was the area around the Beckton Gasworks and probably didnt involved any voters
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 31, 2015 19:37:49 GMT
Not being an expert on the 1974 boundary changes, I was perhaps too reliant on my Feb 74 Times Guide for the information. Admittedly it seems to use the terms "minor" and "major" rather loosely, but I've always given the pre 21st century editions the most credence.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Aug 31, 2015 20:13:53 GMT
Here are the stats of 1965 electors from the 1969 review. First figure is for the old boundaries, second for the new ones.
Barking: 49,729 became 50,021
Oswestry: 50,454 became 49,890
Shrewsbury: 50,080 became 50,726
Torquay: 74,592 became Torbay: 73,811
Totnes: 67,481 became 68,259
Motherwell: 50,441 became Motherwell and Wishaw: 48,908
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 11, 2016 17:56:10 GMT
My spreadsheet at the beginning of this thread is an adaptation of this one; this was the original that was e-mailed to me by Trinity College, Oxford. It includes a great deal of data for the constituencies that existed between 1974 and 1983, including the official 1970 notional results used in the BBC's election results programme in Feb '74. docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iFu-8ySI0cVN-wiv2H2txidUw6hduZecbMMZ9Lwleno/edit#gid=0 |
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Harry Hayfield
Green
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Jan 11, 2016 18:38:24 GMT
I've been looking for those notionals ever since they were first mentioned on BBC Parliament when the Feb 1974 election was first replayed.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 11, 2016 21:09:54 GMT
I'd like to unearth the separate set of notionals that ITN apparently did for their election coverage in Feb '74 if possible, but I have no idea where exactly to start looking. I am aware Peter Snow (now aged 77) presented the election programme but making enquiries could be tricky. This is in contrast to 1983 when both channels made a joint effort to conjure up the 1979 notionals which were published.
I'm not aware if any notionals were calculated by the BBC during the Fifties.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 11, 2016 22:26:50 GMT
I'd like to unearth the separate set of notionals that ITN apparently did for their election coverage in Feb '74 if possible, but I have no idea where exactly to start looking. I am aware Peter Snow (now aged 77) presented the election programme but making enquiries could be tricky. This is in contrast to 1983 when both channels made a joint effort to conjure up the 1979 notionals which were published. You are aware of 'The ITN Election Handbook' published in September 1974 as the first edition of 'VIEW - An Independent Television Journal'? It gives some of the names of the backroom staff at ITN. Also I think Fred Craig was on the staff of ITN in February 1974, so it's possible there may be ITN stuff in his papers, which went to Rallings and Thrasher at Plymouth after his death. They may be in an archive at Plymouth University Library or something like that. I'm fairly sure there weren't. |
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Post by afleitch on Jan 11, 2016 22:32:17 GMT
There were 'pools panels' for the seats being redrawn in the initial review and 1st review, but I don't think they totted up actual figures, but rather made guesstimates (which in a two party system was fairly easy)
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Harry Hayfield
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Jan 12, 2016 19:14:10 GMT
And this is the clip that started my search (when they talked about Havering)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 1, 2016 20:18:23 GMT
Thanks to the information cited by by hullenedge and David Ashforth , it is now possible to identify discrepancies between the BBC and ITN notional results for 1970. Sadly we don’t have detailed constituency results from ITN, but we do know which seats they believed changed hands in Feb 74 thanks to extracts from their election handbook.
www.dropbox.com/sh/ilm4f623kkswex1/AAADHslkhUq92Uc798h5h0Gda?dl=0
NB. the BBC changes of hands are taken from David Boothroyd's site, which compare directly with the 1970 election, whereas the ITN changes appear to be based on changes compared to the point of dissolution of Parliament. Consequently, the information regarding Northern Ireland is frankly a bit of a confusing pig's ear, complicated further by the change in the party system there during the early Seventies. I've missed off "Con gain Ripon...Sutton & Cheam" etc. Where I've written "too close to call" indicates seats for which ITN couldn't bring themselves to say with certainty who would have won the seat in 1970.
Constituency BBC ITN
Antrim North UDUP gain from PUP
Antrim South UU gain from Con UUUC gain from Pro-Assembly UU
Armagh UU gain from Con UUUC gain from Pro-Assembly U
Battersea South Lab gain from Con Lab hold
Belfast East VUP gain from Con UUUC gain from Pro-Assembly UU
Belfast North UU gain from Con UUUC gain from Pro-Assembly UU
Belfast South VUP gain from Con UUUC gain from Pro-Assembly UU
Belfast West SDLP gain from RLP
Birmingham Perry Barr Lab gain from Con Too close to call
Birmingham Yardley Lab gain from Con Too close to call
Derby North Lab gain from Con Lab hold
North Devon Lib gain from Con Lib hold
Down North UU gain from Con
Down South UU gain from Con UUUC gain from Pro-Assembly UU
East Dunbartonshire Con gain from Lab Con hold
Fermanagh and South Tyrone UU gain from OU UUUC gain from Unity
Leicester East Lab gain from Con Lab hold
Lewisham West Lab gain from Con Lab hold
Londonderry UU gain from Con UUUC gain from Pro-Assembly UU
Mitcham and Morden Lab hold Too close to call
North West Norfolk Con gain from Lab Con hold
Northampton North Lab gain from Con Too close to call
Mid Ulster VUP gain from OU UUUC gain from Ind Socialist
Upminster Con gain from Lab Too close to call
Warley East Lab gain from Con Lab hold
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Post by hullenedge on Apr 9, 2016 12:42:20 GMT
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Post by hullenedge on Dec 10, 2016 1:07:00 GMT
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