UKIP's Council By-election Performance Since May 2015

[middleenglander]

The UKIP performance in each of the 40 by-elections the party has contested since the General Election, 80% of the total of 50 upto and including 3rd September, can be summarised by:

Date of Election	Authority	Ward / Division	By-election share	Change in share - average basis	Last contested
4th June	Cambridgeshire	Wisbech South	18.6%	-19.6%	2013
11th June	Sutton	Wallington South	5.8%	-11.8%	2014
11th June	Tower Hamlets	Stepney Green	5.2%	-3.6%	2014
25th June	Cambridgeshire	Romsey	2.1%	from nowhere
2nd July	Lincolnshire	Grantham Barrowby	15.3%	from nowhere
2nd July	Richmond upon Thames	Hampton Wick	2.5%	from nowhere
9th July	East Sussex	Old Hastings & Tressall	10.2%	-12.2%	2013
9th July	Hastings	Central St Leonards	7.0%	-8.8%	2014
9th July	Hastings	St Helens	7.9%	-13.9%	2014
9th July	Hounslow	Brentford	4.7%	-8.2%	2014
9th July	Hyndburn	Spring Hill	9.7%	-6.1%	2014
9th July	North Lanarkshire	Thorniwell	0.9%	from nowhere
9th July	Sandwell	Newton	15.9%	-7.3%	2015
16th July	Kingston upon Thames	Grove	2.2%	-2.5%	2015
16th July	Norfolk	Gorleston St Andrews	13.9%	-22.8%	2013
16th July	Norfolk	Mile Cross	10.2%	-11.4%	2015
16th July	Rother	Battle Town	8.2%	from nowhere
16th July	Tendring	Rush Green	38.5%	-10.0%	2015
16th July	Wrexham	Llay	4.5%	from nowhere
23rd July	Blackburn with Darwen	Mill Hill	20.8%	-7.5%	2015
23rd July	Caerphilly	New Tredegar	11.5%	from nowhere
23rd July	Elmbridge	Long Ditton	4.0%	-4.8%	2015
23rd July	North East Lincolnshire	Croft Baker	15.3%	-8.0%	2015
23rd July	Westminster	Harrow Road	2.5%	-7.4%	2014
30th July	Northumberland	College	14.0%	from nowhere
30th July	Wychavon	Droitwich East	18.0%	-3.1%	2015
6th August	Glasgow	Anderston / City	1.4%	from nowhere
6th August	Glasgow	Calton	3.8%	from nowhere
6th August	Glasgow	Craigton	1.9%	+1.0%	2012
6th August	Glasgow	Langside	1.5%	from nowhere
6th August	South Lanarkshire	Hamilton South	1.1%	-1.4%	2013
13th August	Caerphilly	Cross Keys	23.7%	from nowhere
13th August	Exeter	Pinhoe	8.0%	-11.5%	2014
13th August	North Lanarkshire	Wishaw	1.8%	from nowhere
13th August	Warwickshire	Nuneaton Whitestone	13.3%	from nowhere
20th August	Cornwall	Camborne Pendarves	8.3%	-23.5%	2013
20th August	Durham	Shotton & South Hetton	11.6%	from nowhere
20th August	West Oxfordshire	Witney North	8.2%	-3.3%	2015
27th August	Barnsley	Dearne North	12.0%	-15.4%	2015
3rd September	Caerphilly *	Bedwas, Trethomas & Machen	10.4%	from nowhere

* standing as Independent as disowned although remains UKIP on the ballot paper

So UKIP did not stand in 10 (20%) of the total 50 elections - 4 each in Scotland and Wales and 2 in England
- all where it did not contest the previous occasion
It contested 16 elections (32% of the total) where it had not stood in the prior election
23 of the 24 seats previously contested saw share fall by an average 9¾%
- only Glasgow, Craigton saw a share increase, by 1.0% from 0.9% to 1.9%

UKIP polled less than 5% in 14 of the contested seats, 8 where it had not stood in the  prior election and 6 where it had
-  Glasgow, Craigton saw an increase but the other five had falls in share ranging from 1.4% to 8.2%, averaging nearly 5%
It polled between 5% and 10% in 9 elections, only 1 not previously contested
- the fall in share of the other 8 ranged from 3.3% to 23.5% and averaged a little over 10%
It polled between 10% and 15% in 9 elections, 5 where it had not previously contested 
- the fall in share of the other 4 ranged from 11.4% to 22.8%, averaging 15½%
It polled between 15% and 20% in 5 elections, 1 where not previously contested
- the fall in share of the other 4 ranged from 3.3% to 19.6%, averaging some 9½%

UKIP polled more than 20% in 3 by-elections
- 20.8% in Blackburn with Darwen, Mill Hill, a 7½% fall in share since May
- 23.7% in Caerphilly, Crosskeys where the party came third behind Labour and Plaid Cymru having not contested the seat in 2004, 2008 and 2012
- 38.5% in Tendring. Riush Green the only sear retained but where there was a 10% loss of share since May.

[tim]

Aug 13, 2015 9:33:17 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Aug 10, 2015 10:36:12 GMT Pimpernal said:

From my experience, Bish is right on this - many blue Kippers went back to the Tories out of fear of a SNP dominated Milliband Government. They are far from happy at the new Cameron government, but haven't got the impetus at the moment to speak out too much in the hope that Cameron somehow validates their move.

I suppose that the interesting question is what happens if Corbyn gets in.  UKIP-leaning voters who went to the Tories out of fear are going to be hard to drag back if someone likely to cause them more fear is in charge of Labour.

I think a Corbyn victory could be good for UKIP.

I think as an Islington man who is pro-immigration and very strong on human rights and equality laws northern WWC voters wont flock to him as much as some labour people hope.

Also I think UKIP have more chance in northern labour seats eg heywood & Middleton, rother valley and hartlepool than southern conservative seats. This is because I think UKIP can get conservatives voting tactically to support them in the northern seats in a way in which labour supporters in eg South Thanet wont. I think a Corbyn victory will encourage tory voters in those northern labour/UKIP marginals to vote UKIP.

[Deleted]

"UKIP is not just for general electi... actually they are."