J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 13,612
|
Post by J.G.Harston on May 31, 2015 19:41:52 GMT
6.1 seats seems like a perfectly reasonable group to me. That's based on the 2013 electorate, when I type up the 2015 electorate I wouldn't be surprised if it is a closer match. In the above commentary I looked for figures that were something.0 or something.9. Bradford+Calderdale is 6.14 so just misses out on my initial assessment. 6.0 seats to a 6.14 entitlement would only make them average 2.28% from quota so would easily pass muster as long as some boundaries can be drawn to fit.
|
|
|
Post by East Anglian Lefty on May 31, 2015 20:12:50 GMT
I've just checked the figures for the 2015 electorates. Calderdale and Bradford is 6.19 quotas, which is pushing it but just about works. However, I don't think you can fit five seats into Sheffield - the six seats covering the authority have 5.60 quotas and as Penistone only has around 25000 electors, Sheffield on its own must be about 5.24 quotas, which isn't going to be feasible.
I suspect the simpler option would be to avoid crossing a preserved county boundary, pair Wakefield and Kirklees then consider South Yorkshire as two pairs - Doncaster and Barnsley on the one hand and Rotheram and Sheffield on the other.
|
|
|
Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jun 1, 2015 15:32:46 GMT
68 seats for the North West. Breaking it down by preserved counties, that's 5 for Cumbria, 14 for Lancashire, 25 for Greater Manchester, 10 for Cheshire and 13 for Merseyside.
Looking within the mets, you can now fit three seats entirely within the Wirral (it's got 3.10 quotas), but as there are 22 wards that may be too tight to work. If that's the case, placing the leftover ward with Ellesmere Port is probably going to be less unpopular than placing it with Liverpool.
I can't say for sure, but unless there's been a sizeable shift of electorate within Garston & Halewood then you can have four seats in Liverpool. St Helens and Whiston can stay as they are, then I guess you end up combining the remainder of Knowsley with Sefton, producing an arrangement fairly similar to the 1997-2010 one.
Both the seats in Rochdale work as is. The Oldham seats are a little small, but if you add Failsworth back in you can give the borough two seats. Back of an envelope maths suggests you should then be able to get 5 seats out of Stockport and Tameside, though I'm not sure exactly how that'd shake out.
Beyond that, I'm not sure. Wigan can stand alone with three seats and there's an outside chance you can get two into Trafford, but the other boroughs are all going to have to be paired in some fashion and I'm not sure if there are any workable sub-groups.
|
|
J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 13,612
|
Post by J.G.Harston on Jun 1, 2015 20:07:40 GMT
However, I don't think you can fit five seats into Sheffield - the six seats covering the authority have 5.60 quotas and as Penistone only has around 25000 electors, Sheffield on its own must be about 5.24 quotas, which isn't going to be feasible. There's currently 5-and-a-half seats covering Sheffield. One of them, is Penistone (Barnsley) & Stocksbridge (Sheffield). With a 600-member HoC Sheffield with 390,000 electors would be entitled to 390,000/77,300 = 5.04 seats. (Alternatively, 5.45seats/650members*600members = 5.03seats)
|
|
J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 13,612
|
Post by J.G.Harston on Jun 1, 2015 20:54:41 GMT
However, I don't think you can fit five seats into Sheffield - the six seats covering the authority have 5.60 quotas and as Penistone only has around 25000 electors, Sheffield on its own must be about 5.24 quotas, which isn't going to be feasible. There's currently 5-and-a-half seats covering Sheffield. One of them, is Penistone (Barnsley) & Stocksbridge (Sheffield). With a 600-member HoC Sheffield with 390,000 electors would be entitled to 390,000/77,300 = 5.04 seats. (Alternatively, 5.45seats/650members*600members = 5.03seats) The 2015 parliamentary electorate for Yorks&Humb gives this for 50 seats: District Electors Seats Barnsley 176,280 2.34 Doncaster 206,309 2.74 Rotherham 195,614 2.60 Sheffield 385,100 5.12 SOUTH YORKSHIRE 963,303 12.81 Bradford 325,735 4.33 Calderdale 142,972 1.90 Kirklees 296,481 3.94 Leeds 519,957 6.92 Wakefield 247,935 3.30 WEST YORKSHIRE 1,533,080 20.39 East Riding of Yorkshire 261,259 3.48 Kingston upon Hull 174,136 2.32 North East Lincolnshire 109,553 1.46 North Lincolnshire 121,292 1.61 HUMBERSIDE 666,240 8.86 Craven 43,302 0.58 Hambleton 68,768 0.91 Harrogate 117,983 1.57 Richmondshire 34,720 0.46 Ryedale 40,590 0.54 Scarborough 82,120 1.09 Selby 65,775 0.87 NORTH YORKSHIRE 453,258 6.03 York 143,140 1.90 York + North Yorkshire 596,398 7.93 YORKSHIRE 3,759,021 50.00 Quota 75,180 English Quota, 500 seats 75,448 (exc. Isle of Wight)
|
|
|
Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jun 1, 2015 21:57:42 GMT
Electorates of Sheffield seats at the general election freeze date, according to HoC briefing paper CBP7186:
Penistone & Stocksbridge: 71048 Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough: 73090 Sheffield Central: 77014 Sheffield Hallam: 73658 Sheffield Heeley: 69265 Sheffield South East: 70422 Total: 434497
There aren't 45000 electors in Penistone, so your figures are clearly out of date.
|
|
J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 13,612
|
Post by J.G.Harston on Jun 1, 2015 23:12:47 GMT
Electorates of Sheffield seats at the general election freeze date, according to HoC briefing paper CBP7186: Penistone & Stocksbridge: 71048 Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough: 73090 Sheffield Central: 77014 Sheffield Hallam: 73658 Sheffield Heeley: 69265 Sheffield South East: 70422 Total: 434497 There aren't 45000 electors in Penistone, so your figures are clearly out of date. Which "you(r)" are you refering to? My figures come from the Boundary Commssion (Scroll down to Electorates 2010-2015) posted by somebody on here in another thread somewhere.
|
|
|
Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jun 2, 2015 10:21:37 GMT
Yes, and those appear to come from prior to the election, whereas the HoC papers come from afterwards. There was a last minute spike in registrations just before the deadline, so I suspect that explains the discrepancy in figures.
|
|
|
Post by Merseymike on Jun 2, 2015 10:23:12 GMT
I will be very surprised if there is a reduction to 600 seats. Majority of 12, many Tories wouldn't like the sound of that at all
|
|
iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 10,707
Member is Online
|
Post by iain on Jun 2, 2015 11:24:23 GMT
Is it possible the review could be voted down again by nervous Tories? How many rebelled last time?
|
|
Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 11,516
|
Post by Khunanup on Jun 2, 2015 12:20:34 GMT
Is it possible the review could be voted down again by nervous Tories? How many rebelled last time? If it's 650 then I would highly doubt it (and in that case I don't think anyone would have a real issue with the plan). If it's 600 I think there'd be a real chance.
|
|
iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 10,707
Member is Online
|
Post by iain on Jun 2, 2015 12:23:00 GMT
Is it possible the review could be voted down again by nervous Tories? How many rebelled last time? If it's 650 then I would highly doubt it (and in that case I don't think anyone would have a real issue with the plan). If it's 600 I think there'd be a real chance. Yes, I meant if the current legislation remains in force.
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,540
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Jun 2, 2015 12:31:11 GMT
Is it possible the review could be voted down again by nervous Tories? How many rebelled last time? Not that many, in fact - but with the LibDems united with Labour and others in voting it down, many previous "rebels" could afford to ostentatiously display their "loyalty".
|
|
|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jun 2, 2015 13:05:37 GMT
|
|
|
Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jun 2, 2015 14:09:16 GMT
All four of them were fairly substantially impacted by the proposed boundary changes - Davis saw half of his constituency put into a Hull seat, and the other half had slightly more electors from Brigg & Goole than Haltemprice & Howden; Davies lost rural bits of his seat and instead gained large parts of Bradford West; Baron would have found himself representing a constituency stretching from Great Dunmow to Billericay; and Shepherd lost Streetly and gained relatively Labour-friendly parts of Walsall North. None were doomed (Davis' profile would still have given him an advantage in a selection contest versus Andrew Percy, and for that matter the Hull seat was winnable in 2010 or 2015; Davies would have been less safe, but he mostly got the less Asian bits of West; Baron would actually have been safer, it's just the proposed seat was as ugly as sin; Shepherd is too entrenched to ever be in any danger), but all had reasons besides awkwardness to be opposed.
Ultimately I think Cameron can win the vote if the Tories look likely to win in 2020. If they look doomed, people are going to be less keen to take one for the team.
|
|
J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 13,612
|
Post by J.G.Harston on Jun 2, 2015 19:35:49 GMT
Yes, and those appear to come from prior to the election, whereas the HoC papers come from afterwards. There was a last minute spike in registrations just before the deadline, so I suspect that explains the discrepancy in figures. The 01-March-2015 or the 07-May-2015 figures makes little difference. Updated for 01-May-2015 ( link, link): (edited to correct South Yorkshire total and Sheffield/Barnsley figures) District Electors Seats Barnsley 173,084 2.23 Doncaster 212,850 2.75 Rotherham 201,816 2.61 Sheffield 406,095 5.24 SOUTH YORKSHIRE 993,846 12.83 Bradford 335,814 4.33 Calderdale 147,396 1.90 Kirklees 305,655 3.95 Leeds 536,046 6.92 Wakefield 255,607 3.30 WEST YORKSHIRE 1,580,518 20.40 East Riding of Yorkshire 268,499 3.47 Kingston upon Hull 178,961 2.31 North East Lincolnshire 112,589 1.45 North Lincolnshire 124,653 1.61 HUMBERSIDE 684,702 8.84 Craven 44,613 0.58 Hambleton 70,850 0.91 Harrogate 121,554 1.57 Richmondshire 35,771 0.46 Ryedale 41,819 0.54 Scarborough 84,606 1.09 Selby 67,766 0.87 NORTH YORKSHIRE 466,978 6.03 York 147,473 1.90 York + North Yorkshire 614,451 7.93 YORKSHIRE 3,873,517 50.00 Quota 77,470 English Quota, 500 seats 77,746 (exc. Isle of Wight)Interestingly, 0.13 of a constituency is 10,071 which is near as damn it Stocksbridge Town Council, so Stocksbridge TC could be sliced off Sheffield leaving exactly 5.00 seats. Also, "South Humberside" is 3.06 seats, so the Lincolnshire bit of Y&H could be sliced off into a whole number of seats of their own.
|
|
|
Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jun 3, 2015 9:32:12 GMT
That doesn't agree with the HoC figures, which give South Yorkshire an electorate about 30,000 higher. Anybody have any idea what might be causing the disparity? Everything else is the same and I've rechecked the figures for each of the seats, so I'm genuinely mystified why this isn't adding up.
|
|
|
Post by greatkingrat on Jun 3, 2015 10:01:47 GMT
Yes, and those appear to come from prior to the election, whereas the HoC papers come from afterwards. There was a last minute spike in registrations just before the deadline, so I suspect that explains the discrepancy in figures. The 01-March-2015 or the 07-May-2015 figures makes little difference. Updated for 01-May-2015 ( link, link): District Electors Seats Barnsley 181,869 2.35 Doncaster 212,850 2.75 Rotherham 201,816 2.61 Sheffield 397,310 5.13 SOUTH YORKSHIRE 963,303 12.83
Those four boroughs add to 993845, not 963303
|
|
|
Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jun 3, 2015 10:13:47 GMT
I had 993846, which is probably just a typing error on my part.
EDIT: But comparing that to the electorates of the Sheffield seats still suggests Penistone's electorate is about 45000 (and has grown by 20000 in 5 years), which isn't feasible. I'm starting to wonder if the LGBCE figures by borough have accidentally assigned the Penistone portion of Penistone & Stocksbridge to Sheffield and the Stocksbridge portion to Barnsley.
|
|
J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 13,612
|
Post by J.G.Harston on Jun 3, 2015 10:55:54 GMT
That doesn't agree with the HoC figures, which give South Yorkshire an electorate about 30,000 higher. Anybody have any idea what might be causing the disparity? Everything else is the same and I've rechecked the figures for each of the seats, so I'm genuinely mystified why this isn't adding up. A typo on my part when copy'n'pasting from my spreadsheet and editing it into text, SY ended up with the March figure. Is there an easier way of pasting in a table? The South Yorkshire total is 993,846. Edit: I've corrected the South Yorkshire total above. I'll also check the ward-by-ward electorates for Sheffield and Barnsley to see if Penistone & Stocksbridge have been split incorrectly. The Barnsley half should be three wards of around 8,500 (Pen W, Pen E, Dodworth), so should be about 25,000; the Sheffield half should be three wards of around 14,500 (Ecc W, Ecc E, Stock), so should be about 45,000.
|
|