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Post by swindonlad on May 13, 2015 17:37:43 GMT
Thanks Pete - correction on way
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Post by swindonlad on May 13, 2015 17:49:01 GMT
Correction for the error Pete Spotted 600 Seats: East Midlands 43 (3) Eastern 56 (2) London 70 (3) N Ireland 16 (2) North East 25 (4) North West 68 (7) Scotland 53 (6) South East 83 (1) South West 53 (2) Wales 29 (11) West Midlands 54 (5) Yorks & H 50 (4)
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Post by swindonlad on May 13, 2015 17:50:07 GMT
650 Seats East Midlands 47 1 Eastern 61 3 London 76 3 N Ireland 17 (1) North East 27 (2) North West 74 (1) Scotland 57 (2) South East 90 6 South West 57 2 Wales 32 (8) West Midlands 58 (1) Yorks & H 54 -
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Post by swindonlad on May 13, 2015 17:51:28 GMT
Now turning to a bit of speculation - as to what the possible outcome of the election would have been if it had been on these numbers I am assuming the general outcome for the region would be replicated in the gains of losses of seats
East Mids +1 C Eastern +3 C London +3; +1 C +2Lab NIR -1, other NE -2, Lab NW -1 Lab Scotland -2 SNP SE +6 C SW +2 C Wales -8; -5 Lab, -2C, -1 PC WM -1 C
So the changes would be C +10, Lab -6, -2 SNP, -1 PC, -1 Other
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J.G.Harston
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Post by J.G.Harston on May 13, 2015 18:28:17 GMT
650 Seats East Midlands 47 1 Eastern 61 3 London 76 3 N Ireland 17 (1) North East 27 (2) North West 74 (1) Scotland 57 (2) South East 90 6 South West 57 2 Wales 32 (8) West Midlands 58 (1) Yorks & H 54 - I've got the total electorate for Y&H as 3,931,068 ( ONS). If the 650-seat quota is 69,909 that gives 56.23 seats.
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Post by swindonlad on May 13, 2015 18:56:30 GMT
650 Seats East Midlands 47 1 Eastern 61 3 London 76 3 N Ireland 17 (1) North East 27 (2) North West 74 (1) Scotland 57 (2) South East 90 6 South West 57 2 Wales 32 (8) West Midlands 58 (1) Yorks & H 54 - I've got the total electorate for Y&H as 3,931,068 ( ONS). If the 650-seat quota is 69,909 that gives 56.23 seats. Mine's from the Electoral Calculus, used this as it was the 1st easy to use data file I could find
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Post by greatkingrat on May 13, 2015 19:21:29 GMT
I've got the total electorate for Y&H as 3,931,068 ( ONS). If the 650-seat quota is 69,909 that gives 56.23 seats. That is the local government electorate, not the parliamentary electorate.
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J.G.Harston
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Post by J.G.Harston on May 13, 2015 20:25:38 GMT
I've got the total electorate for Y&H as 3,931,068 ( ONS). If the 650-seat quota is 69,909 that gives 56.23 seats. That is the local government electorate, not the parliamentary electorate. I took that figure as that table gives a breakdown by council and region. The Parliamentary table is just a huge alphabetical list of constituencies. Ok, parliamentary electorate of Yorkshire & Humber is 3,803,151(*) so if the quota is 69,909 that means 54.4 seats. (Or use a local electorate quota of 72,260 which neatly becomes exactly five Sheffield wards of 14,500 - Sheffield's local/parl electorate ratio is very nearly invariate across the city so either figure can be used for the purpose of chopping the city up.) (Or a Yorkshire parliamentary quota of 70,429 for exactly 54.0 seats) (*)May have dropped a digit somewhere.
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Post by greatkingrat on May 13, 2015 20:52:43 GMT
The BCE has the parliamentary electorates in an easier to use format hereI note Lincolnshire is entitled to 7.46 seats, so it might make sense to have a cross region seat with 11 seats for the combined Lincs / N Lincs / NE Lincs area.
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J.G.Harston
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Post by J.G.Harston on May 13, 2015 21:07:23 GMT
Maybe this needs a seperate thread...
So, Yorkshire & Humberside with 54 seats gives:
South Yorkshire: has gone from 13.6 to 13.8 over the last five years. Close enough to justify remaining at exactly 14 seats and treat as a single unit? Within which: Doncaster has gone from 3.08 to 3.05 so close enough to justify remaining at exactly 3 seats and treat as a single review unit. Sheffield has gone from 5.36 to 5.48 so close enough to justify remaining at 5.5, glue the northern wards to Penistone and treat the remaining 5/5.5 of the city as a single review unit.
West Yorkshire: has gone from 22.10 to 21.99. Close enough to justify remaining at exactly 22 seats and treat as a single unit. Calderdale has gone from 2.09 to 2.03, treat as a single review unit. Everywhere else is annoying fractional.
""Humberside"": gone from 9.70 to 9.68, currently 10. North Yorkshire & York: gone from 8.56 to 8.58, currently 8. I think this is going to force a cross-border seat, but I think there will be a few reasonable options for a single seat somewhere. Filey & Bridlington? Selby & Goole? Also, every council area has a fractional number of seats, so I think North Yorks&Humberside would be best reviewed as a single unit together. ""South Humberside"" is also fractional, so you can't even chop that off either.
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J.G.Harston
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Post by J.G.Harston on May 13, 2015 21:13:15 GMT
The BCE has the parliamentary electorates in an easier to use format hereThanks, grabbed to add a "2015" column to my spreadsheet!
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iain
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Post by iain on May 13, 2015 22:46:02 GMT
The BCE has the parliamentary electorates in an easier to use format hereI note Lincolnshire is entitled to 7.46 seats, so it might make sense to have a cross region seat with 11 seats for the combined Lincs / N Lincs / NE Lincs area. Didn't Rutland used to be in with a Lincolnshire seat?
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Post by finsobruce on May 13, 2015 22:55:39 GMT
The BCE has the parliamentary electorates in an easier to use format hereI note Lincolnshire is entitled to 7.46 seats, so it might make sense to have a cross region seat with 11 seats for the combined Lincs / N Lincs / NE Lincs area. Didn't Rutland used to be in with a Lincolnshire seat? Rutland and Stamford (1918-83). up until 1885 Rutland had two MPs to itself.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 14, 2015 0:01:41 GMT
Stamford is very poorly connected with the rest of South Kesteven despite being one of its biggest towns. It's far better connected with Oakham and Uppingham in Rutland (also with the various towns of Northamptonshire to the south).
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Post by manchesterman on May 14, 2015 3:21:53 GMT
Correction for the error Pete Spotted 600 Seats: East Midlands 43 (3) Eastern 56 (2) London 70 (3) N Ireland 16 (2) North East 25 (4) North West 68 (7) Scotland 53 (6) South East 83 (1) South West 53 (2) Wales 29 (11) West Midlands 54 (5) Yorks & H 50 (4) I am intending on working on a set of 600 seats using new weighted figures as described in this thread.... but not until I get back from my holidays in about 12 days time!
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cibwr
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Post by cibwr on May 16, 2015 10:33:04 GMT
Anyone fancy trying a punt at working things out for a parliament elected with 600 constituencies, 1/5 list 4/5 constituency elected by AV :-) Lists being regional lists not UK wide.
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Post by manchesterman on May 29, 2015 21:51:48 GMT
Correction for the error Pete Spotted 600 Seats: East Midlands 43 (3) Eastern 56 (2) London 70 (3) N Ireland 16 (2) North East 25 (4) North West 68 (7) Scotland 53 (6) South East 83 (1) South West 53 (2) Wales 29 (11) West Midlands 54 (5) Yorks & H 50 (4) I am intending on working on a set of 600 seats using new weighted figures as described in this thread.... but not until I get back from my holidays in about 12 days time! Well I was planning on doing this but as it now seems that 600 seats is unlikely, does anyone have a definitive breakdown of how many seats each region would get if we stick with 650 seats? Also what the Average Quota would be for the mean seat? I can then get cracking on this this weekend
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J.G.Harston
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Post by J.G.Harston on May 29, 2015 22:14:24 GMT
Well I was planning on doing this but as it now seems that 600 seats is unlikely, does anyone have a definitive breakdown of how many seats each region would get if we stick with 650 seats? Also what the Average Quota would be for the mean seat? I can then get cracking on this this weekend Going on the above figures gives me: East Midlands 43 47 Eastern 56 61 London 70 76 N Ireland 16 17 North East 25 27 North West 68 74 Scotland 53 57 South East 83 90 South West 53 57 Wales 29 31 West Midlands 54 59 Yorks & Humb 50 54 600 650 Column 3 = INT((Column 2/600*650)+0.5) UK-wide electoral quota of 46,432,000/650 = 71,430 +/-5% = 67,860-75,000. (I'm sure somebody will post more exact figures.)
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Post by manchesterman on May 31, 2015 1:02:11 GMT
Great! I will be putting in some work on this over the next week or so. Should be able to post up some maps too. I am sure many will disagree with the constituencies I come up with, but that's life.
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Post by manchesterman on May 31, 2015 1:23:13 GMT
Oops! I've just foreseen a bit of a problem using Boundary Assistant!
I just started with the South West region. They should now receive 57 seats per JG's calculations, however BA only permits 53 seats as it stands. Does anyone know if there is a way to "add" extra seats in the coloured column of numbered seats on the left? Failing that..any suggestions??!
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