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Post by carlton43 on Aug 29, 2015 13:29:58 GMT
I think one needs to be created, then-the Tamar boundary was created more than a thousand years ago, long before the Norman Conquest and when Wales was still recognised as separate from all the English kingdoms. I believe that Cornwall is a Celtic nation in its own right, having its own language and culture. You know in your heart it is no such thing at all....Just another county and to my my mind (yes I have known both well since the 50s) less distinctive than Yorkshire.
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 13,503
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Post by J.G.Harston on Aug 29, 2015 14:09:38 GMT
I think one needs to be created, then-the Tamar boundary was created more than a thousand years ago, long before the Norman Conquest and when Wales was still recognised as separate from all the English kingdoms. I believe that Cornwall is a Celtic nation in its own right, having its own language and culture. You know in your heart it is no such thing at all....Just another county and to my my mind (yes I have known both well since the 50s) less distinctive than Yorkshire. Aye, and the Isle of Man should be Just Another English County. Population near enough just about spot on for exactly one MP.
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Post by carlton43 on Aug 29, 2015 19:14:54 GMT
You know in your heart it is no such thing at all....Just another county and to my my mind (yes I have known both well since the 50s) less distinctive than Yorkshire. Aye, and the Isle of Man should be Just Another English County. Population near enough just about spot on for exactly one MP. No. It is an offshore island. All this mystic glope about Cornwall is a bit silly. It is special like many counties are, but nothing more and don't pretend it is.
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Post by carlton43 on Aug 29, 2015 19:16:36 GMT
The proposed "Devonwall" seat would have been (could still be?) called 'Bideford, Bude and Launceston' And perfectly sensible at that. Could be called Sand Canal Country?
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Post by carlton43 on Aug 29, 2015 19:38:18 GMT
You know in your heart it is no such thing at all....Just another county and to my my mind (yes I have known both well since the 50s) less distinctive than Yorkshire. Aye, and the Isle of Man should be Just Another English County. Population near enough just about spot on for exactly one MP. No. Just an offshore island and in no way comparable. Don't be silly.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 29, 2015 21:00:12 GMT
To complete my survey of the aborted boundary changes, the North East of England would have lost three seats, all of them Labour (basically Wansbeck, Blaydon and Sedgefield). The three currently held Tory seats would all stay in Tory hands though with reduced majorities so the total would be Lab 23 (-3) Con 3
Wales is tricky and a fiar bit of guesswork on my part here. Taking the non-Labour seats, Ceredigeon remains in LD hands as do two of the three Plaid seats. Arfon is abolished but part is merged with Anglesey which (I think) tips that into the Plaid column so no net change for them. The Tories lose two out of their three seats on the North Wales coast, one in Pembrokeshire and Montgomery is abolished. However they would win the seat of Denbigh & North Montgomeryshire so are only down 3 net from seats being abolished. IN South Wales Monmouth and Vale of Glamorgan remain intact while the Cardiff and Swansea area seats are heavily redrawn. It's a fair bit of guess work here but I reckon the Tories remain ahead in both these seats so end up on 8 in total (down 3 net) with Labour taking the biggest hit from the large reduction in seats. Lab 18 (-7) Con 8 (-3) PC 3 (nc) LD 1 (NC)
Scotland is relatively easy to figure out. Orkney & Shetland is unchanged and its clear the Tory seat in the borders disappears. Only one I'm unsure about is Ednburgh South East, successor to South. It takes in enough of East that its perfectly plausible the SNP carry it but i'm awarding it to Labour on balance so the total would have been SNP 50 (-6) Lab 1 (nc) LD 1 (nc) Con 0 (-1)
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 29, 2015 21:02:25 GMT
| Actual | | | | Notional | | | | | Con | Lab | LD | Oth | Con | Lab | LD | Oth | | | | | | | | | | London | 27 | 45 | 1 | | 29 | 39 | | | East | 52 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 50 | 4 | 1 | 1 | South East | 79 | 4 | | 1 | 78 | 4 | | 1 | South West | 51 | 4 | | | 48 | 5 | | | East Midlands | 32 | 14 | | | 30 | 14 | | | West Midlands | 34 | 25 | | | 34 | 20 | | | North West | 22 | 51 | 2 | | 23 | 44 | 1 | | Yorkshire | 19 | 33 | 2 | | 19 | 31 | | | North East | 3 | 26 | | | 3 | 23 | | | | | | | | | | | | England | 319 | 206 | 6 | 2 | 314 | 184 | 2 | 2 | | | | | | | | | | Wales | 11 | 26 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 18 | 1 | 3 | | | | | | | | | | Scotland | 1 | 1 | 1 | 56 | | 1 | 1 | 50 | | | | | | | | | | NI | | | | 18 | | | | 16 | | | | | | | | | | Total | 331 | 233 | 8 | 78 | 322 | 203 | 4 | 71 |
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| | | | | Con | Lab | LD | Oth | | | | | | London | +2 | -6 | -1 | | East | -2 | | | | South East | -1 | | | | South West | -3 | +1 | | | East Midlands | -2 | | | | West Midlands | | -5 | | | North West | +1 | -7 | -1 | | Yorkshire | | -2 | -2 | | North East | | -3 | | | | | | | | England | -5 | -22 | -4 | | | | | | | Wales | -3 | -7 | | | | | | | | Scotland | -1 | | | -6 | | | | | | NI | | | | -2 | | | | | | Total | -9 | -30 | -4 | -7 |
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Post by greenhert on Aug 29, 2015 22:36:20 GMT
Regarding this thread,keep in mind that a lot of current constituencies' electorates have grown at substantially different rates. For example, there are almost 90,000 electors in Bristol West, compared to just under 82,000 when it was redrawn in 2010. Most constituencies I know of have not had their electorates increase by 8,000 or more. Meanwhile some seats' electorates have decreased since their 2010 set-up; Liverpool Riverside's electorate is about 3,500 down on the electorate it had in 2010.
And as some local councils have had (or will have) major boundary changes, especially ones involving a change in council seat numbers, the 600 seats likely to be drawn for a 2020 scenario will not include many of the originally proposed seats from last time.
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
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Post by cibwr on Aug 30, 2015 9:54:00 GMT
You know in your heart it is no such thing at all....Just another county and to my my mind (yes I have known both well since the 50s) less distinctive than Yorkshire. Aye, and the Isle of Man should be Just Another English County. Population near enough just about spot on for exactly one MP. Nice troll.
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Post by greenhert on Aug 30, 2015 14:27:30 GMT
Scotland is relatively easy to figure out. Orkney & Shetland is unchanged and its clear the Tory seat in the borders disappears. Any idea how the three border seats would look? The 2013 boundary commission created the rather abstract seat of Galloway, South Ayr & Carrick and a separate Dumfries seat. If the forthcoming boundary review produced similar boundaries to that of the 2013 review then wouldn't a Conservative gain in the Ayr/Galloway seat and Labour gain in the Dumfries seat be plausible? Similarly a Conservative seat could be crafted around the Berwickshire seat by combining elements of the constituency with Annandale/eastern East Lothian or by removing Galashiels from the seat and instead attaching Tweeddale to the Ettrick, Roxburgh & Berwickshire Scottish Parliament seat.
Possibly, regarding the second point. As for the first, the SNP might have just about gained both of the hypothetical constituencies in question (although Ayr/Galloway would have been an easier gain for the SNP in this scenario than Dumfries, where Labour could have benefitted from tactical ex-Lib Dem votes as they actually did in Edinburgh South).
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 30, 2015 20:29:58 GMT
Scotland is relatively easy to figure out. Orkney & Shetland is unchanged and its clear the Tory seat in the borders disappears. Any idea how the three border seats would look? No - I've not gone into any detail. I just was trying to figure out who would have won in each seat (or in the case of Scotland whether any party besides the SNP would win anywhere). The Berwickshire & Roxburgh seat is more or less the same anyway (just gains a small bit of Tweedale AFAICT) while the existing Tory seat in the borders is pretty well split up. Dumfriesshire looks to be the main succesor and I assume Dumfries town scuppers the Tories there
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 30, 2015 20:31:22 GMT
Regarding this thread,keep in mind that a lot of current constituencies' electorates have grown at substantially different rates. For example, there are almost 90,000 electors in Bristol West, compared to just under 82,000 when it was redrawn in 2010. Most constituencies I know of have not had their electorates increase by 8,000 or more. Meanwhile some seats' electorates have decreased since their 2010 set-up; Liverpool Riverside's electorate is about 3,500 down on the electorate it had in 2010. And as some local councils have had (or will have) major boundary changes, especially ones involving a change in council seat numbers, the 600 seats likely to be drawn for a 2020 scenario will not include many of the originally proposed seats from last time. Thanks for this. In your next post can you give us detailed instructions on how to suck eggs?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 30, 2015 22:17:55 GMT
Scotland is relatively easy to figure out. Orkney & Shetland is unchanged and its clear the Tory seat in the borders disappears. This sort of happened in 2005. The Conservatives were on the brink of making a wee breakthrough by gaining Ayr, Edinburgh Pentlands and possibly Perth. The boundary changes buggered it up.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Sept 2, 2015 9:36:36 GMT
I think one needs to be created, then-the Tamar boundary was created more than a thousand years ago, long before the Norman Conquest and when Wales was still recognised as separate from all the English kingdoms. I believe that Cornwall is a Celtic nation in its own right, having its own language and culture. The Tamar has been the boundary for over a millenium, but that doesn't mean Cornwall was recognised as a separate kingdom. The only reason we know about the recognition of the boundary is that an English source noted it whilst recording the submission of Cornwall to English authority. In any case, I fail to see any strong evidence that west Devon is (or ever, ever has been) culturally distinct from east Cornwall.
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
Posts: 3,557
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Post by cibwr on Sept 2, 2015 16:12:26 GMT
Acts of Parliament referring to England and Cornwall? And without wanting to reopen matters previously discussed there is some considerable evidence that Cornwall was regarded as distinct from England previously.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Sept 2, 2015 18:01:02 GMT
I think one needs to be created, then-the Tamar boundary was created more than a thousand years ago, long before the Norman Conquest and when Wales was still recognised as separate from all the English kingdoms. I believe that Cornwall is a Celtic nation in its own right, having its own language and culture. Cornish has been extinct since the late 18th century. And while its true that Cornwall has a distinctive local culture so do (for instance) County Durham and Yorkshire. Durham was even a quasi-independent ecclesiastical state until the early modern period and didn't send MPs to the Commons until the 17th century.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Sept 2, 2015 20:39:54 GMT
Acts of Parliament referring to England and Cornwall? And without wanting to reopen matters previously discussed there is some considerable evidence that Cornwall was regarded as distinct from England previously. Yes, but you've got evidence that Cornish was still spoken in western Devon up to the Reformation. Acts of Parliament may be good source for the political culture of Westminster, but they're a poor source for the political culture of the areas they refer to in the pre-modern era.
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Post by greatkingrat on Sept 2, 2015 21:27:18 GMT
Of course, many acts of Parliament referred to Monmouthshire separately, so I assume cibwr believes that to be a separate nation?
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
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Post by cibwr on Sept 5, 2015 11:09:22 GMT
The important thing of course is that the people of Monmouthshire/Gwent regard themselves as Welsh not English, likewise the people of Cornwall regard themselves as being distinct.
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Sept 5, 2015 11:37:29 GMT
The important thing of course is that the people of Monmouthshire/Gwent regard themselves as Welsh not English, likewise the people of Cornwall regard themselves as being distinct. None of the people from Cornwall I know do.
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