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Post by Deleted on Mar 22, 2015 10:56:49 GMT
Simply the yessers will vote SNP and the BT's along their own party lines. Main problem for the SNP many of the 1st time voters will may not turn out on the day.
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Post by No Offence Alan on Mar 22, 2015 13:16:57 GMT
It was actually 55.3% to 44.7%. I know because I had money on 45% to 49.9% Yes.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 22, 2015 13:35:19 GMT
It was actually 55.3% to 44.7%. I know because I had money on 45% to 49.9% Yes. ouch |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 24, 2015 17:38:11 GMT
More likely a reformed "Scottish Labour" party would have swept the board before too long......
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Post by Deleted on Mar 24, 2015 18:40:25 GMT
I don't know about the electoral impact, but an independent Scotland would have had the troika in within the first year. They'd be cutting or privatising everything that moved. I wonder what that would have done to the SNP. Perhaps the much vaunted hard left groups like Radical Independence Campaign could have become Scotland's Syriza? Syriza probably have a better sense of economics than the RIC who, despite claims to the contrary, are simply a breakawy from the SWP lead by a gent called Chris Bambery. |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 24, 2015 19:38:02 GMT
RIC may have started out as an ISG (i.e. ex-SWP) front, but I'm not sure that it makes much sense to characterise them primarily in such terms now. For starters, I don't imagine that an organisation composed primarily of disaffected Scottish SWP activists could have filled the Clyde Auditorium last November. Though that's not to say that I'm sure what it is that they've morphed into -- and I'm not sure that they're sure themselves yet either.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 24, 2015 20:10:09 GMT
RIC may have started out as an ISG (i.e. ex-SWP) front, but I'm not sure that it makes much sense to characterise them primarily in such terms now. For starters, I don't imagine that an organisation composed primarily of disaffected Scottish SWP activists could have filled the Clyde Auditorium last November. Though that's not to say that I'm sure what it is that they've morphed into -- and I'm not sure that they're sure themselves yet either. True, but they lack a hold on political and economic reality, their Glasgow campaign may have swung a lot of Labour voters to YES but on false promises based on the SNP's voodoo economic forcasts. So childish in their belief that an "independent" Scotland will be free from the evils of global capital. Childish in their belief that 51% is a mandate to seperation, and not , as I see it, the violent Balkanisation of the British Isles,. bellacaledonia.org.uk/2014/11/23/ric-and-the-peoples-vow/ |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Mar 29, 2015 23:01:54 GMT
RIC may have started out as an ISG (i.e. ex-SWP) front, but I'm not sure that it makes much sense to characterise them primarily in such terms now. For starters, I don't imagine that an organisation composed primarily of disaffected Scottish SWP activists could have filled the Clyde Auditorium last November. Though that's not to say that I'm sure what it is that they've morphed into -- and I'm not sure that they're sure themselves yet either. True, but they lack a hold on political and economic reality, their Glasgow campaign may have swung a lot of Labour voters to YES but on false promises based on the SNP's voodoo economic forcasts. So childish in their belief that an "independent" Scotland will be free from the evils of global capital. Childish in their belief that 51% is a mandate to seperation, and not , as I see it, the violent Balkanisation of the British Isles,. bellacaledonia.org.uk/2014/11/23/ric-and-the-peoples-vow/I knew very little about RIC but that's all a bit My First Economics! |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 29, 2015 23:32:33 GMT
True, but they lack a hold on political and economic reality, their Glasgow campaign may have swung a lot of Labour voters to YES but on false promises based on the SNP's voodoo economic forcasts. So childish in their belief that an "independent" Scotland will be free from the evils of global capital. Childish in their belief that 51% is a mandate to seperation, and not , as I see it, the violent Balkanisation of the British Isles,. bellacaledonia.org.uk/2014/11/23/ric-and-the-peoples-vow/I knew very little about RIC but that's all a bit My First Economics! They actually seem quite a nice bunch, still young a free of the SWP predators, who knows they might evolve. |
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Post by brothersideways on Apr 1, 2015 12:51:04 GMT
A Yes vote would have destroyed the Conservatives in England. "The man who destroyed the UK" would have been a great thing for Labour to campaign on.
Of course, Labour would only be in a position to pick up a small number of the dissatisfied voters. We could see UKIP peaking at over 30% of the vote, though I think they'd be under incredible scrutiny.
Scotland would have MPs for six months, and there'd be a strong argument for these to be SNP MPs. The MPs would be part of the negotiatiors for Scotland's future out of the UK. Why elect people who've spent the last few years saying that Scotland will get a bad deal?
On the other hand, I've often wished there was a poll of Scotland immediately after the referendum. I think the Unionist response must have put off some No voters. I think post-Yes vote, there'd be a swing in support for unionism as people suffered buyer's remorse and feared eternal SNP dominance.
It's possible that the other parties in Scotland could run a good campaign based on the notion that Scotland needs negotiators who are more cynical and have a better relationship with the people on the other side of the negotiating table. The former BT parties would have a boost for tactical voting at this election - Labour people may be more likely to vote for a Conservative to do one job then lose power in six months.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Apr 1, 2015 12:55:31 GMT
A Yes vote would have destroyed the Conservatives in England. "The man who destroyed the UK" would have been a great thing for Labour to campaign on. I'm not convinced. I know plenty of people down here who were disappointed that Scotland didn't become independent and were wishing for a Yes vote. Unionism in England is not the beast it once was. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 1, 2015 12:59:24 GMT
One keeps hearing stuff like that anecdotally, but actual polling shows support in England for keeping the UK intact is pretty conclusive.
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Post by brothersideways on Apr 1, 2015 13:07:16 GMT
A Yes vote would have destroyed the Conservatives in England. "The man who destroyed the UK" would have been a great thing for Labour to campaign on. I'm not convinced. I know plenty of people down here who were disappointed that Scotland didn't become independent and were wishing for a Yes vote. Unionism in England is not the beast it once was. That's very true. But the dominant narrative is unionist, and even people who approved of English nationalism would see losing a country as a sign of incompetence. Losing a child in a pub may be regarded as a misfortune. Losing a medium sized country looks like carelessness. Of course, he might not survive to the election. |
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Apr 1, 2015 15:02:37 GMT
One keeps hearing stuff like that anecdotally, but actual polling shows support in England for keeping the UK intact is pretty conclusive. Astonishing really. Neither side is better together and the arguments employed this side of the border were pretty weak. When the oil runs out and England and Northern Ireland are the only customers for their hydro- and wave-power attitudes will change. |
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