mondialito
Labour
Everything is horribly, brutally possible.
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Post by mondialito on Jan 16, 2015 20:57:22 GMT
The 2001 General Election saw unusual circumstances occur in the election of the Members of Parliament for the Witney and Tatton constituencies.
In Witney, the Conservative incumbent, Shaun Woodward, had defected to Labour after disagreeing with the party leadership over maintaining Section 28. Instead of facing certain defeat, Woodward went off to St. Helens, clearing the way for a certain David Cameron to become the next Conservative MP.
In Tatton, the Independent incumbent Martin Bell decided to honour his rash commitment to serving only one term after winning in 1997, which made things easier for a certain George Osborne to become the Conservative MP for that constituency.
The question is, what if Woodward had not defected and Bell chose to run again? Would Cameron and Osborne have become MPs in 2001? Would they be leading the party today? Would the Conservatives even be in Government today?
Answers (not) on a postcard please.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 16, 2015 21:14:56 GMT
Cameron would certainly have got a safe seat somewhere. He had had one go in a marginal in 1997 and was well connected enough in the party that it wouldn't have been a problem.
Osborne's only vulnerability would have been if Bell had had a late change of mind and decided to re-stand in Tatton. For this reason Osborne apparently spent considerable time personally lobbying Bell to stick with his original decision.
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Post by greatkingrat on Jan 16, 2015 21:18:53 GMT
I think Osborne would have won Tatton even if Bell was standing. I doubt Labour and the Lib Dems would have stood aside for him again.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
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Post by Tony Otim on Jan 16, 2015 21:31:55 GMT
I think Osborne would have won Tatton even if Bell was standing. I doubt Labour and the Lib Dems would have stood aside for him again. Agreed. Bell's victory was all anti-Hamilton. With Hamilton gone, a lot of votes go back to the Tories. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 16, 2015 22:12:49 GMT
I agree that Cameron would have got another safe Tory seat - only that would have done after the loss of Stafford. I am aware that he was up against Portillo for the Kensington and Chelsea by-election in 1999, and also narrowly missed out on being selected for Wealden. I'm unsure if he tried anywhere else before Witney.
Tatton I'm less sure about. Labour and the Lib Dems knew they didn't stand a cat in hell's chance of winning and might have been prepared to stand aside for Bell again for that reason alone.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jan 16, 2015 22:22:40 GMT
I think Osborne would have won Tatton even if Bell was standing. I doubt Labour and the Lib Dems would have stood aside for him again. Agreed. Bell's victory was all anti-Hamilton. With Hamilton gone, a lot of votes go back to the Tories. I agree with this assessment entirely. I could see Cameron ending up somewhere very similar to Witney. |
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Post by johnloony on Jan 17, 2015 3:48:14 GMT
Tatton I'm less sure about. Labour and the Lib Dems knew they didn't stand a cat in hell's chance of winning and might have been prepared to stand aside for Bell again for that reason alone. No way. In 1997 Bell won because people hated Hamilton, but a lot of people hated Bell as well (only slightly less). The Lib Dems' decision to agree to withdraw in favour of Bell in 1997 (conditional on the Labour Party and the Lib Dems both agreeing to do so) was only passed by a narrow margin. It would not have been agreed again in 2001, which means that Labour would also not have withdrawn. As has been said already, if Martin Bell had stood for re-election in 2001 in Tatton, he would probably have lost anyway. I happen to think that if Labour and Lib Dems had had candidates normally in 1997 (with no Martin Bell), I reckon Labour would probably have won anyway (due to tactical voting). The figures of 28k for Martin Bell and 17k for Neil Hamilton mean that the non-Bell votes only needed to be split 17k-11k in order for Hamilton to be defeated. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 17, 2015 8:38:47 GMT
Agreed. Bell's victory was all anti-Hamilton. With Hamilton gone, a lot of votes go back to the Tories. I agree with this assessment entirely. I could see Cameron ending up somewhere very similar to Witney. Henley? |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jan 17, 2015 9:39:06 GMT
I agree with this assessment entirely. I could see Cameron ending up somewhere very similar to Witney. Henley? That'd definitely work. Now where does Boris go? |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 17, 2015 9:54:56 GMT
I think Osborne would have won Tatton even if Bell was standing. I doubt Labour and the Lib Dems would have stood aside for him again. Agreed. Bell's victory was all anti-Hamilton. With Hamilton gone, a lot of votes go back to the Tories. It would have been closer but Bell would still have been favourite, especially in the context of the Tories having another bad election nationally. He made himself popular in the seat by largely avoiding grandstanding, doing a lot of constituency work and confining his national interventions to subjects on which he was experienced such as the Balkans. The fact he got over 30% and ran Pickles reasonably close in a very oddly chosen seat would suggest he would have held on even with full competition in Tatton. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 17, 2015 10:04:47 GMT
That'd definitely work. Now where does Boris go? It'd be a very interesting alternative history if Boris wasn't able to secure a seat! |
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Post by timrollpickering on Apr 2, 2016 17:53:38 GMT
Agreed. Bell's victory was all anti-Hamilton. With Hamilton gone, a lot of votes go back to the Tories. It would have been closer but Bell would still have been favourite, especially in the context of the Tories having another bad election nationally. He made himself popular in the seat by largely avoiding grandstanding, doing a lot of constituency work and confining his national interventions to subjects on which he was experienced such as the Balkans. The fact he got over 30% and ran Pickles reasonably close in a very oddly chosen seat would suggest he would have held on even with full competition in Tatton. Single issue blips in heartland seats generally don't outlast both the issue & the personalities involved but a hardworking focused MP who gets in under unusual circumstances can personally hold on for a while - Simon Hughes is the most obvious example. I think Bell's main obstacle would have been the "one term only" pledge he made but "back by popular demand" could have neutralised that. Wasn't the Labour candidate in 2001 Bell's new son-in-law? That could have made for an interesting contest. |
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